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Jalen Hurts seems a poor fit for the Air Raid

sushihorn

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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Seeing the news that Jalen Hurts transferred to OU for a single year struck me as really odd.  For starters, the Air Raid is a system that depends on extremely high numbers of reps so reads and throws are almost muscle memory rather than conscious decisions.  Hurts is a one and done situation and will have little time to learn the system and a fraction of the reps that even a RS freshman would get.

That would probably be OK if Hurts was coming from another team that ran Air Raid or passing spread but that obviously is not the case here.  Hurts is coming from a very run-heavy offense where the QB is mostly asked to make simple reads.  I don’t see any real background in spread passing concepts like the multiple quick reads required to run OU’s offense.  Many of Riley’s plays also require timing to hit a window which is another reason why reps are so important.

Hurts is a good runner and Riley seems to feel he needs that at the QB position but he seems like quite the project and a real risk in the passing department.  Watch some tape.  He locks in on his first read and rarely comes off and throws to a secondary except under 2 conditions: 1) checkdowns or 2) when resurveying the field after flushing from the pocket.  I don’t see the quick 1-2-3 read progressions from the pocket needed to take advantage of matchups in the spread.  That’s not entirely his fault since he’s had 3 different OCs in his time in Tuscaloosa – 4 if you count Sarkisian but he’s not a developed passer.  If Hurts is successful at OU it will be the first time I’m aware of that has happened with a 1st year QB coming from outside the Air Raid system.

If you look at the history of Mike Leach at Texas Tech, he NEVER started a first year player at QB.  Every one of his starting QBs redshirted and most did not play until their 3rd or 4th year in the program.  After Kliff Kingsbury, Leach had 5th year seniors as first time starters for 3 years in a row: Symons, Cumbie and Hodge.  In the case of transfers to OU, Mayfield got a good foundation at Lake Travis.  He polished that under Kingsbury at Tech.  He redshirted a year in Norman before starting.  Murray played under Sumlin and Jake Spavital.  He transferred, redshirted and then played backup for a year.  He had 3 ½ years of exposure to the Air Raid before his first start.  Hurts will get 7 months of practice from a much lower starting point.

This is all quite a contrast to the mature period of the Air Raid offense in Lubbock under Leach.  The Pirate was able to take 3-star whodats, run them through the program and those guys would break records once they got to start.  Lincoln Riley has had multiple QBs recruited under his supervision as first OC, then HC.  Are they not developing into starters?  It seems odd that even a gifted passer could come in and displace a 3rd year player in a system that requires so much repetition, much less someone as raw as Hurts.

I suspect Jalen Hurts may do well at OU.  He will definitely do damage with his feet.  He has a strong and accurate arm so he will make a lot of plays where the first read is there.  He will also miss a lot of reads and make mistakes If he continues to lock in and stare down his primary receiver.  He definitely looks sub-optimal for the OU passing attack.  But Lincoln Riley has made the judgement that Hurts is clearly better than anything he has on campus right now.  Maybe Riley can perform a total makeover in a small window.

Is this just the logical end result of the free agency / transfer portal era?    It makes me wonder what exactly is going on.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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3 minutes ago, satyanash said:

blOU may be Air Raid but they run the ball a lot more than Leach's teams ever did.

The plays are mostly the same; the ratio is different.  I suspect it's because it's easier to get good OL in Norman than Lubbock.  OU still primarily runs inside zone, draw and occasional QB scramble.  They have more designed runs for the QB, which is about the only difference in style on the ground.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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18 minutes ago, TheFlagship said:

As much as it hurts to admit, Lincoln seems smart enough to not try to fit a square peg in a round hole per se. He has all spring and summer to adapt the offense. I would imagine they will RPO the shit out of teams. 

I have no doubt there will be adjustments.  But even there it seems odd that Riley would rather change his offense than roll with the guys he recruited, who presumably fit the system and who have been on campus for 1-3 years already.

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ButtFumble

ButtFumble 5161

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1. the air raid needs a guy that can make short passes something there is no indication that Hurts struggles with

2. it needs someone that can read and pick a receiver quickly even for a very short gain and we really have no idea how Hurts will do with that and we do know how only serviceable QBs do with that behind Olines that are much weaker than OU so if Hurts is serviceable at that he can do well in the system

3. the main task will be to get him to NOT use his feet and instead play in the system and make the short passes......the inability of Kliff to get Mahomes to do this is why Tech under performed with Mahomes as QB and why Mahomes took a seat on the bench to start his pro career because those "run around" guys die in the NFL when they get crushed by huge fast defenses

4. you are right mike never started players early in their career, but you also ignore the fact that other than some meaningless practice reps mike never did shit to develop those young guys while they were waiting on the bench he preferred to have his senior QB roll out with 5 minutes left in the 4th to put those 56 points on the little sisters of the poor while the QBs for next year rode the pine.....that is why mike in his 15th season of coaching still rolls out teams that get their dicks knocked in the dirt by D1-AA teams two years in a row to start the season and why Tech always struggled playing shit teams in the OOC and Kliff carried that legacy forward for the same reasons

although "Tech fans" (the ones that are football regards) love to bash Shimmy there is a reason he won more AT TECH than Mahomes did and it was because he played to the  system instead of trying to use his feet to make a play and that is why jett duffy will never be a good air raid QB and why Gardens Minchew was a good air raid QB (even though no one on earth thinks he has or had the talent that Hurts has even now)......because he played to the system not to his desire to be the hero

if Hurts is coached and responds to playing to the system he should do very well if not he will probably get injured early and often and OU will struggle

5. guys broke records under leach because they played until the last drive or two of the game that was well put away and continued to throw the ball and actually went for longer yardage attempts against very tired defenses instead of backups getting meaningful reps.....pretty much none of those record breakers had any type of meaningful pro career

6. Hurts has never been coached to do what he will be ask to do at OU so we agree there, but he will have a great Oline and supporting cast, a coach that has taught it with the best of them and he will not be facing all world defenses

7. true OU has struggled to recruit a QB that ends up starting lately, but so has mike, so did Kliff, so has Holgar and even TCU has had issues with it......Morris at SMU had issues with it

a lot of other programs running other offenses seem to have the same issue which is why so many programs like Miami and tosu are looking at transfers......"stats guys" and "sling it around guys" have a hard time not being out there playing it is one of the downsides of that type of offense and the inability to know your offense ca control the clock means you leave your starters in longer even IF you are a coach that understands coaching for next year and getting players reps instead of coaching for offensive stats and no hardware (which is what a lot of air raid coaches are all about)

8. plenty of places with a coach that can convince a QB to operate within the system have done well with one year transfer QBs like TCU and OU and others that cannot struggle to win meaningful games and major hardware no matter the length of time their QB has been in the program

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32710

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Hurts got yanked from a national championship game specifically because he wasn't being a gamer, whatever that means.

He's a very good QB and nobody knows exactly what this is going to end up looking like. However I will say that I won't be one of the people who is shocked if he gets beat out by Mordecai.

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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12639

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I'm pretty sure OU will take a step back on offense next year. They would almost have to, even if Murray had returned. That will still leave them as a more potent offense than pretty much everybody else in college football.

Hurts will do just fine; he just won't be a record-breaking air-raid quarterback. I am, however, looking forward to what it will mean that OU will be more turnover prone in 2019 than they were in 2018. Even a small uptick in turnovers can have a dramatic effect on the W/L totals.

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satyanash

satyanash 14282

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Just because blOU runs the ball a lot doesn't mean they're not an Air Raid team. 

blOU fans LOVE to make this argument. In the early 2000s they would constantly bash Texas Tech QBs as products of the Air Raid system, in order to justify their own QBs winning awards and recognition over them. (B.J. Symons > Jason White, for example) Now they're terrified of the same arguments being used against their own QBs, so they're suddenly claiming they don't actually run an Air Raid and the monster stats Mayfield + Murray put up is just because they're so damn good.

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SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1295

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14 minutes ago, DonaldClinton said:

Uh... OU runs the ball more than both Texas and Alabama. I think they'll be fine.

 

Texas ran the ball on 53.7% of plays in 2018.

Bama ran the ball on 56.8% of plays in 2018.

OU ran the ball on 57.6% of plays in 2018.

When you have big leads you run the ball more. TEXAS did not have that luxury. 

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formermav43

formermav43 4599

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1 hour ago, UTEX_ME said:

this year's "OU is a program on serious decline" thread ?

 

1 hour ago, Constant said:

I love these threads. 2/2. 

I don’t think he indicated anything like that. He didn’t even say Hurts would be bad, just that it was an odd fit:

“I suspect Jalen Hurts may do well at OU.  He will definitely do damage with his feet.  He has a strong and accurate arm so he will make a lot of plays where the first read is there.  He will also miss a lot of reads and make mistakes If he continues to lock in and stare down his primary receiver.  He definitely looks sub-optimal for the OU passing attack.”

That seems perfectly reasonable. I’m not surprised the Sooner can’t comprehend it, but I’d expect others to actually read what he said instead of reflexively freaking out like it was “Jalen Hurts seems like he sucks.”

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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9 minutes ago, Boogaloo said:

Wrong or right I just dont see OU as an Air Raid team. Watch Wazzu that is Air Raid 

The entire OU offense is built on Air Raid principles: repetition, timing, quick read progressions, leverage and adjustment.  Reading coverage and route progressions is exactly what Hurts didn't do at Bama.  In his defense, it's endemic at the top programs in the SEC.  Look at the 4 picks that Tua threw in the NCG and the conference CG game.  He locked on to his primary receiver and failed to see a DB running to the spot where he was throwing.  Fromm had the same problem against Texas.  Even most OU RPOs require 2 reads in quick succession: read leverage on a DE/OLB then on a DB.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21105

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11 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Just because blOU runs the ball a lot doesn't mean they're not an Air Raid team. 

blOU fans LOVE to make this argument. In the early 2000s they would constantly bash Texas Tech QBs as products of the Air Raid system, in order to justify their own QBs winning awards and recognition over them. (B.J. Symons > Jason White, for example) Now they're terrified of the same arguments being used against their own QBs, so they're suddenly claiming they don't actually run an Air Raid and the monster stats Mayfield + Murray put up is just because they're so damn good.

Legit lol.  ‘OMG, I hope they don’t call us an air raid offense!!!11!1!1’

They’ve got the last 2 Heismans and rewrote a good part of the record books on offense.  I’m sure they’re terrified of being called air raid.  GTFO

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Magus Ossis

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6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

The entire OU offense is built on Air Raid principles: repetition, timing, quick read progressions, leverage and adjustment.  Reading coverage and route progressions is exactly what Hurts didn't do at Bama.  In his defense, it's endemic at the top programs in the SEC.  Look at the 4 picks that Tua threw in the NCG and the conference CG game.  He locked on to his primary receiver and failed to see a DB running to the spot where he was throwing.  Fromm had the same problem against Texas.  Even most OU RPOs require 2 reads in quick succession: read leverage on a DE/OLB then on a DB.

Why would you want to go and introduce anything more than rudimentary summary of total stats as evidence?

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ABSR

ABSR 5289

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30 minutes ago, DonaldClinton said:

Uh... OU runs the ball more than both Texas and Alabama. I think they'll be fine.

 

Texas ran the ball on 53.7% of plays in 2018.

Bama ran the ball on 56.8% of plays in 2018.

OU ran the ball on 57.6% of plays in 2018.

Get out of here with your gosh darn facts!  We don't want your type around here!

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angelos's frog

angelos's frog 83

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No one runs the pure Air Raid of Texas Tech circa 2000-2010.  I think you will see OU run an "Air Raid" offense more like TCU of 2017 with a 45/55 pass/run ratio.  It took a year to figure out that Kenny Hill couldn't run the offense like Boykin could and Cumbie made the adjustment to a more run heavy offense to take the pressure of the QB.  I suspect it won't take Lincoln that long to figure out Hurts can't run the offense Mayfield/Murray style and he will adjust accordingly.   

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Slacks

Slacks 6792

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Jalen Hurts at Bama is a poor fit for the Air Raid.

Jalen Hurts at ou will suck.

Having said that, his running ability will allow him opportunities to throw to WIDE OPEN receivers.  This is what Riley does. He uses the threat of the running QB to get receivers open.  Hell, it's what Tom Herman does, but in a different way.

I remember when people said VY couldn't throw and wasn't accurate... but he was throwing to guys who were wide open (and he was actually fairly accurate on deep shots).  You're going to see ou looking like they're running option (or running option and coming back later with the same look) and dropping deep bombs.

He's not Kyler Murray or Baker in terms of accuracy, but he is as accurate as Boykin was at TCU, or Reggie McNeal at A&M... he'll be accurate and practiced enough to run the offense.... because Riley is a fucking offensive genius (that sucks).

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gmr548

gmr548 16533

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Jalen Hurts at Bama is a poor fit for the Air Raid.
Jalen Hurts at ou will suck.
Having said that, his running ability will allow him opportunities to throw to WIDE OPEN receivers.  This is what Riley does. He uses the threat of the running QB to get receivers open.  Hell, it's what Tom Herman does, but in a different way.
I remember when people said VY couldn't throw and wasn't accurate... but he was throwing to guys who were wide open (and he was actually fairly accurate on deep shots).  You're going to see ou looking like they're running option (or running option and coming back later with the same look) and dropping deep bombs.
He's not Kyler Murray or Baker in terms of accuracy, but he is as accurate as Boykin was at TCU, or Reggie McNeal at A&M... he'll be accurate and practiced enough to run the offense.... because Riley is a fucking offensive genius (that sucks).

This. Riley will figure out to make it work, and work quite well.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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pacman

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39 minutes ago, DonaldClinton said:

Uh... OU runs the ball more than both Texas and Alabama. I think they'll be fine.

 

Texas ran the ball on 53.7% of plays in 2018.

Bama ran the ball on 56.8% of plays in 2018.

OU ran the ball on 57.6% of plays in 2018.

With a capable QB who could read defenses and throw a nice ball..

To sushi's premise, Hurts is an odd fit almost like they are planning to go back to the Belldozer again. Like Fromm against us and Tua against Clemson, Hurts will struggle against real pass defense design. His successes in passing have often come from quick one-read plays where the WR made most of the yardage.

 

To others points, I have no doubt OU will put out a capable offense despite points expressed here.

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DonaldClinton

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34 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Just because blOU runs the ball a lot doesn't mean they're not an Air Raid team. 

blOU fans LOVE to make this argument. In the early 2000s they would constantly bash Texas Tech QBs as products of the Air Raid system, in order to justify their own QBs winning awards and recognition over them. (B.J. Symons > Jason White, for example) Now they're terrified of the same arguments being used against their own QBs, so they're suddenly claiming they don't actually run an Air Raid and the monster stats Mayfield + Murray put up is just because they're so damn good.

If only we could see Mayfield in a higher tier league, in a "pro style" system against better players to see if he is in fact damn good or just a system quarterback. 

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Constant

Constant 6722

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41 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

 

I don’t think he indicated anything like that. He didn’t even say Hurts would be bad, just that it was an odd fit:

“I suspect Jalen Hurts may do well at OU.  He will definitely do damage with his feet.  He has a strong and accurate arm so he will make a lot of plays where the first read is there.  He will also miss a lot of reads and make mistakes If he continues to lock in and stare down his primary receiver.  He definitely looks sub-optimal for the OU passing attack.”

That seems perfectly reasonable. I’m not surprised the Sooner can’t comprehend it, but I’d expect others to actually read what he said instead of reflexively freaking out like it was “Jalen Hurts seems like he sucks.”

It has less to do with the actual OP. We all know where this is gonna go. 

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Bama Llama

Bama Llama 1447

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I observed, sometimes wincing, every snap Jalen Hurts took while he was at Alabama.  If his passing game under Riley's wing improves as much between now and game one as it did under Dan Enos last year, especially at crunch time vs. UGA, he could be a Big XII factor.  There is a zen thing with him that is hard to describe.  There was immediate and obvious improvement getting the ball out with accuracy last year.  And then there was his slump in the latter half of 2017 when, as my dear departed father-in-law said, he couldn't hit a bull in the ass with a bass fiddle, and bailed at the first sign of pressure.  In the latter part of the 2017 season, if he started rolling right and backing up, one of three results was going to happen: running loss, complete pass loss or ugly incomplete pass.  To his credit, he stayed away from picks and turnovers.  We shall see, saith the blind man.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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4 minutes ago, Constant said:

It has less to do with the actual OP. We all know where this is gonna go. 

The transfer thread was filling up with smack talk, which is fine.  I was hoping for more actual football talk here and we did get some good discussion.

Offseason is slim pickings for real football stuff.  Next window to talk about current events in football isn't until spring training.  These posts are like methadone treatment for my football addiction.

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Slacks

Slacks 6792

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12 minutes ago, pacman said:

With a capable QB who could read defenses and throw a nice ball..

To sushi's premise, Hurts is an odd fit almost like they are planning to go back to the Belldozer again. Like Fromm against us and Tua against Clemson, Hurts will struggle against real pass defense design. His successes in passing have often come from quick one-read plays where the WR made most of the yardage.

 

To others points, I have no doubt OU will put out a capable offense despite points expressed here.

You're missing the point... the UGa and Bama offenses, aren't even close to what ou will run.  

Riley's is a heavy run / PA / RPO offense.  They run a GT counter / counter trey type action on the OL, and let the RB's go off... but they run that same action to confuse LBs and dump the ball off to a RB or hit a WR over the top or on a crossing route...

Riley is not running pure Air Raid.... Personally, I think he's running Smashmouth with some Air Raid (or WCO) based passing fundamentals for the RPO... 

Mike Leach's Air Raid is trying to get the ball to a receiver, in an open space, quickly, so the receiver can make a play with athleticism.

Riley seems to have attached that tenet on the back of "confuse the LBs with OL movement that looks like run."

Which is why he'll be gone to the NFL soon.  They're going to figure out that he is doing what they really want to do... keep the same plays they've run forever and attach the ability for a WR or TE to be free in space.

If you really want to feel a little something... watch the NE Patriots offense and the Riley offense... they're really similar in what they're trying to do...  hold the LB and or get a receiver into a wide open space.  it's not rocket surgery, it's just beautiful play design predicated on knowing what the defense is going to key on in the run game. 

WHAT?!??!  Snacks has gone crazy!  Nope. Watch the plays...

Some type of pull by GT... run... 

Motion a slot... vacate a spot, some Some type of pull by GT, run fake, know where the 'open space' is, throw it to some small white guy you've never heard of.

Put Gronk on the line, G-counter run fake, Gronk fakes block, T blocks the guy over Gronk, Gronk is running free and you're screaming, "How do you not cover F'n Gronk?!?!" Because it was made to look like a run play and Gronk sat at the LOS looking like a doofus for 1 beat... then ran to the open space.

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F250

F250 28716

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31 minutes ago, pops said:

Jalen hurts seems like a good QB and it sucks he's going to ou. 

This.

Hurts was a good quarterback at Alabama and will likely be a much better quarterback at OU under Riley. I expect him to thrive in their system.

With that said, ou sucks and Texas is back.

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