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I can't make any sense of our level of competitiveness under Shaka

Goo Punch

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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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Here are Texas's worst losses this year:

 

2018-19: 

 

78-68 to MSU

68-62 to TTU

71-65 to Providence

62-59 to Redford 

61-58 to OSU

 

Here are some notable losses from last year:

(final Kenpom ranking in parentheses)

 

2017-18:

 

85-78 to Duke in OT (#3)

76-71 to Gonzaga in OT (#10)

59-52 to Michigan (#7)

92-86 to KU (#9)

65-64 to OSU (#59)

73-71 to TTU in OT (#11)

74-73 to BU in 2OT (#34)

73-69 to TTU (#11)

87-83 to Nevada in OT (#25)

 

Here are two facts which do not make sense together, and yet they both are equally true:

 

1)Under Shaka Smart we are a poorly coached team that plays awful, hard-to-watch basketball on the offensive end

2)We are competitive in 80-90% of our losses. 

 

We very rarely get blown out. We lost 15 games last year, and only two of them were by more than 10 points. The amount close losses vs good teams last year is frankly astounding. Nearly all of those teams were *clearly* better than Texas and yet we consistently played them closely. And then this year nobody has blown us out, save the second half of the MSU game. Of course we have been hauling in top 10 recruiting classes like missed threes, so it's not like we're a bunch of bums. We are somehow both an under and overachieving program. It makes zero fucking sense. All I know is I'm tired of it.  I'll let Huck and fozzz break it down for us from here. 

Edited by Goo Punch
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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3466

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Like I said before, we've been consistently good under Shaka at taking care of the ball. Even during the year we played without a PG we were much better at taking care of the ball than we had any right to be. Limiting wasted possessions helps prevent blowouts. Now the problem in the other direction is we can't rebound anywhere near the level we should be. So our first possession defense is great, but giving up an inordinate amount of offensive rebounds allows teams to get buckets even as their overall offensive efficiency goes down. That and one striking thing I noticed during Shaka's 11 win season is we were way down relative to our competition in the number of shots we attempted. Because of the fact that we don't average an inordinate amount of turnovers, our lack of shot attempts points directly towards our rebounding issues on both ends of the floor.

We also throw away a lot of games with our ridiculous dependency on the 3pt shot. Running the 4 out offensive alignment for 90% of our possessions is just inane given what our personnel is capable of. I get it, he wants to open up the floor more to allow for better driving angles, but we simply can't shoot at a consistently high enough rate to open the floor anyway so why not mix in more high low with Dylan and Jaxon. Jaxon inexplicably started showing a dribble drive game from the elbow half way into the season against Okla St (I didn't even know he was capable of that). That makes both of them interchangeable in a high low set. We need more possessions thus more rebounds to put us over the "competitive" threshold. Getting our bigs closer to the rim will help with that problem, but continuing to rely on the 3pt shot as part of some sort of rote adherence to the analytics of it is really killing us in more ways than one. 

Someone mentioned it before, and he's right,  Dylan really is a highly skilled guy who can't take the burden of being relied upon as a play maker. Getting him in the the high and low post more where he has better angles to crash the offensive boards would suit him better. It doesn't mean we have to totally do away with our open floor alignment, but we have to reduce its role in our offense.

 

Edited by Catdaddyhorn
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Goo Punch

Goo Punch 4275

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I'm sure some people will say that we play up and down to our competition, but i don't really see that. I think that we can score a bunch of points when teams let us run up and down, even good teams like Duke and UNC, but I think the fact that we play really good D and don't turn the ball over helps us to not get blown out against good teams. I think it's the fact that we can lose to almost anybody when we shoot exceptionally poorly (which we do far too often) that gives this perception that we play up and down, when in reality our defense and ball security keep us in a lot of games, but our poor shooting prevents us from winning winnable games, and allows us to lose to inferior opponents. 

Mans again, this is all hard for me to wrap my head around- there are too many things about his teams that just usually don't go together. Teams that recruit this well, defend this well, and don't turn the ball over should win more than we do. Teams that shoot this poorly, that play against their strengths so consistently, whose only consistent player is a foul prone freshman, and who suck at rebounding should never play good teams as closely as we do. The fact that we almost exclusively rank in the 200's and 300's  in the statistical categories tracked by basketball-reference should mean that we finish last in the conference every year, yet we made the tourney last year, and if a couple bounces go our way we might make it again this year. I cannot forecast to you the action of Shaka smart's team. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. 

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Js1

Js1 87178

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3 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

I'm sure some people will say that we play up and down to our competition, but i don't really see that. I think that we can score a bunch of points when teams let us run up and down, even good teams like Duke and UNC, but I think the fact that we play really good D and don't turn the ball over helps us to not get blown out against good teams. I think it's the fact that we can lose to almost anybody when we shoot exceptionally poorly (which we do far too often) that gives this perception that we play up and down, when in reality our defense and ball security keep us in a lot of games, but our poor shooting prevents us from winning winnable games, and allows us to lose to inferior opponents. 

Mans again, this is all hard for me to wrap my head around- there are too many things about his teams that just usually don't go together. Teams that recruit this well, defend this well, and don't turn the ball over should win more than we do. Teams that shoot this poorly, that play against their strengths so consistently, whose only consistent player is a foul prone freshman, and who suck at rebounding should never play good teams as closely as we do. The fact that we almost exclusively rank in the 200's and 300's  in the statistical categories tracked by basketball-reference should mean that we finish last in the conference every year, yet we made the tourney last year, and if a couple bounces go our way we might make it again this year. I cannot forecast to you the action of Shaka smart's team. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. 

It's mind-boggling for sure.

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VinyVango

VinyVango 708

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I believe DO and Snoop can be good in strict roles... DO as a space eater and garbage guy and Snoop as the off guard/swing man.  They fold like wet newspaper when given too much time with the ball in their hands, in the "do your thing and make something happen" / "be the hero" role, and/or when allowed to stand around the three point line and hoist bricks. 

The moments of success this season on offense have directly correlated with pushing the pace on defensive rebounds and driving the paint in the half-court set.  That passive / backwards weave with rushed 3-point shot offense needs to be canned for good unless we have a huge lead and the bench has been cleared.  

The 1 big, 4 small defense that Shaka has been toying  around with also needs to be shelved in my opinion... ESPECIALLY when DO is the guy "guarding" the paint.

Hepa and Hamm need more playing time it they are going to be expected to come off the bench and offer any meaningful contribution this year.  

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Braff Zacklin

Braff Zacklin 13676

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7 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

And I take back what I said about Jaxon not having a back to the basket game. That kid displays something new every time he steps onto the court. His new and improved post game is even more of a reason to go to a high/low set with him and Dylan. 

Jaxson. He's Hayes, not Shipley.

And 100 percent agree with your observation. He creates so much excitement because you can see the progression on a game-over-game basis. Seems like every day is something new.

Edited by Braff Zacklin
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47152

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What percentage of 3-pt attempts are truly contested?  It has to be a relatively low number.  I get the feeling Shaka and (by extension) the team get excited by games where they manage to eek out something like 38% beyond the arc, when in reality those are just outliers that contribute to but hardly dominate our shitty average.

We don't have a bunch of guys who excel at the dribble drive, but we're better there than bombing threes.

 

 

 

 

Edited by jimmyjazz
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dcar00

dcar00 14955

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basically if Shaka recruited some guys that can shoot consistently we'd have a good team and his job would not be in question, we probably beat Radford, VCU and Providence and certainly OSU.  that, unfortunately, is on him, and its not a one year blip.

we don't have empty possessions but we get god awful rushed looks a lot and then we have DO missing at the rim, most of the time.  This is because we don't know how to run an offense consistently.  again, that is on him.  if we get lucky and a couple of guys are on from 3 we have a good enough D to play with anyone. Shaka gets credit for the D and recruiting guys like Hayes and Bamba.  if you want to be consistently top 20 you have to have both.  I'd rather have a guy who's very good at O, D than a guy that is elite a one and inept at another.

additionally by being elite at D and horrible at O you get an ugly game to watch.  I'll take ugly and winning(hello Tony Bennett, yes I know UMBC) but ugly and losing to Radford and VCU at home is not a recipe for hanging around and making the tourney when you coach in the Big 12.

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Catdaddyhorn

Catdaddyhorn 3466

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3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

basically if Shaka recruited some guys that can shoot consistently we'd have a good team and his job would not be in question, we probably beat Radford, VCU and Providence and certainly OSU.  that, unfortunately, is on him, and its not a one year blip.

we don't have empty possessions but we get god awful rushed looks a lot and then we have DO missing at the rim, most of the time.  This is because we don't know how to run an offense consistently.  again, that is on him.  if we get lucky and a couple of guys are on from 3 we have a good enough D to play with anyone. Shaka gets credit for the D and recruiting guys like Hayes and Bamba.  if you want to be consistently top 20 you have to have both.  I'd rather have a guy who's very good at O, D than a guy that is elite a one and inept at another.

additionally by being elite at D and horrible at O you get an ugly game to watch.  I'll take ugly and winning(hello Tony Bennett, yes I know UMBC) but ugly and losing to Radford and VCU at home is not a recipe for hanging around and making the tourney when you coach in the Big 12.

For whatever reason this has been more difficult than one would think. For one, Tevin Mack, Jacob Young, Andrew Jones, Jase Febres, and even Elijah Mitrou-Long came in with reps as prime plus shooters. Andrew Jones and Tevin Mack (for parts of a season before he got kicked off the team) are the only 2 who lived up to that rep from the jump. Others like Febres have started to come around after his freshmen year. While others like Jacob Young never lived up to his rep, and we'll see about Elijah. I think a major part of the problem is we shoot too many off rhythm 3s. There's a lot of hesitation and (Derka's favorite) poor passes outside of the shooting pocket.

 

I've mentioned this multiple times before, but there was a really good article a couple of years ago on Barking Carnival which presented the data and made the argument that shooters aren't necessarily born, they are groomed over a number of years before entering elite status. For the most part, great college shooters didn't exactly fit that description in their first year or so playing college ball. Buddy Hield only shot 24% from 3 his freshman year, before gradually growing into a 46% shooter in his final season at OU. Svi Mykhailiuk of Kansas only shot 29% from 3 as a freshman before shooting 44% as a senior.  I'm not arguing for patience, but our shooting woes have mostly been due to a multitude of causes.

1) A shitload of off rhythm throws/chunks/heaves at the basket from 3pt range

2) Bad shooters (or unnatural shooters) taking an ungodly portion of our 3s (here's to you Mo Bamba, Dylan, Matt Coleman, and Kerwin Roach [admittedly he's worked to become an average to decent shooter over his 4 years]. 

and 3) a healthy percentage of our 3s being taken by 1st and 2nd year players. 

 

Here's the article I mentioned above:

https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2017/12/20/16803880/so-you-want-shooters-a-look-at-texas-path-to-getting-perimeter-help

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dogbreath

dogbreath 440

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My theory on Texas' competitiveness is that good teams will play their style against Texas.  Hall of Fame coaches are not breaking down opponents in non-conference regular season games.  UNC will always run the secondary break and play poor defense.  Texas has enough athletes to be competitive in an open game.  Exception last year at WV where the guards could not handle the pressure.

Average teams with good coaches will combat Texas' athleticism by compacting the lane and making Texas shoot outside.  Similar to bunkering in soccer but Texas  doesn't have the game plan to unlock these defenses and you get games like Radford and so on.

Tonight's game should be interesting as TCU under Dixon has beaten Texas three out of four (only loss was double OT game last year), but they don't have depth this year. 

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VaLonghorn99

VaLonghorn99 365

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Similarities between Shaka and Strong are certainly there on so many levels. Both were losing close games while recruiting decently. Strong got done by the KU loss. Do VCU and Radford losses bring an end to Shaka's tenure? If Texas misses the tournament this year, I think Shake is gone. We are not KU or UNC but we are an all time Top 25 team. Shaka has not even taken us to Sweet 16 let alone an Elite 8 or Final Four or a even Top 3 freaking seed in the tournament. Maybe if we took fewer 3pt shots, who knows. OP is right. So close, yet so far.

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