Jump to content

Texas recruiting notes 2019


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, satyanash said:

Eric Nahlin: General Thoughts and Observations of Defensive Line Recruiting

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Last October, Tom Herman stated, "We're building a program, not a season, not a team, not a game." Recruiting is the lifeblood of a program, and each recruiting class an appendage of the program, but I bet he'd be fine amending the above quote with "and not a recruiting class." Sometime last fall, Justin and I heard the staff wasn't overly concerned with 'stars' when it came to the lines. We knew stars mattered in the big picture to the staff — their competitive nature has them wanting the top class — so I thought we were being spun because at the time recruiting was laboring in that department.

 


Then last December I heard from someone in attendance at a coach/donor meet-and-greet that Herman shared his philosophy, essentially saying, but not verbatim, "I don't want small classes on the lines, and I don't want overly big classes on the lines (those lead to small ones). I want a consistent class of four, maybe five, and I want them to have time to develop. The goal is to push around the Big 12 with grown men." That's not exactly profound, but when you take it all in: not so worried about stars across the lines, the willingness and ability to stash and develop bigs, and the success Herman and Orlando were having with a defensive line filled with former three-star turned upper-classmen, the light bulb went off. That’s a really good plan, but it's contingent on a few things.

As Scipio has mentioned, the attrition rate for defensive linemen is typically pretty high. It takes a lot to consistently fire that motor. Unmotivated players well be run-off and replaced. This hits incredibly close to home for Texas fans who have seen what happened to Charlie Strong's 2016 class. Jordan Elliott, Chris Daniels, and Marcell Southall are all gone. Each arrived with very questionable mental evaluations. D'Andre Christmas has barely seen the field due to questionable work ethic that was known prior to signing. If your preference is to employ the patient, long-curve approach, a staff must hit on mental evaluation. Players must be self-starters with high football character. Time spent developing in year one and two is time wasted if a given player isn't around in year four.

Speaking of which, if we can discuss Strong's failings in the mental evaluation department, let us recall the successes that Tom Herman finds himself the beneficiary of. "Three-star Chollie" as the Aggies came to call him, landed Poona Ford, Chris Nelson, Charles Omenihu, Breckyn Hager, Malcolm Roach, and Gerald Wilbon. Ford has departed after earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Of this group, he was the only four-star and he barely met that mark. This upcoming season, Texas will likely accomplish what Herman told that room of donors what his goal is, "to push around the Big 12 with full grown men."

As stated, if this is the route you want to go, evaluation plays a massive part. Players must be program fits with untapped potential to overshoot their network ratings. You may recall how I beat the drum for the guys the defense will depend on next year, notably calling Omenihu and Roach four-stars. Because of their NFL upside the services had those two especially wrong. I did like Hager's upside coming off the edge (I was pessimistic about him at linebacker) and didn't deem him a questionable take at all. He was a newly built strip center with a ton of room left to lease out. I thought Nelson was a great take after seeing junior film of him moving around as a giant linebacker. Wilbon I questioned rather vocally until I saw his senior film. To this day I don't know what Strong saw in him as a junior, but his senior tape made him a fine take and his mental evaluation was higher than many other Strong brought in. That was never a question. What these guys all had going for them is they stuck around and were wired internally to fit and take advantage of the new culture and strength and conditioning program.

Per the networks, Herman's first full defensive line class barely averages to a four-star, which is below the overall class haul. The class contained Keondre Coburn (.9468), Joseph Ossai (.9257 composite), Moro Ojomo (.8884), Mike Williams (.8763), and Daniel Carson (.8763). Most importantly, though, like we saw with Omenihu, Roach, and others, we see some clear 'network' misses. In fact, everybody but Coburn is under-rated in my view. We're seeing more of the same with the 2019 class. T'vondre Sweat (.8628) and Peter Mpagi (.8654) are two of the three lowest rated players in the current class of 10. So what do Herman and Todd Orlando think they know the networks don't? A lot of things I'm sure, but the difference makers again boil down to the mental evaluation that lends to program fit as well as on-field fit.

Per the networks, Sweat is seen as a strong-side defensive end; Mpagi a weak-side defensive end. Here comes the only spin I'll ever offer, the positional variety. Sweat will be a 4i on in, not dissimilar to Taquon Graham. Mpagi's upside lies as a 265 pound 4i or end in a four-man front not dissimilar to Omenihu (fit-wise). Also like Omenihu, because of his incredibly high mental evaluation, he's going to hit that upside, assuming he keeps most of his athleticism while gaining size and strength. None of this is to say the staff doesn't want elite players like DeMarvin Leal and it isn't to excuse those types of misses when/if they occur. It also isn't to say I wouldn't love to see a guy like Marcus Stripling in the class. [Quick digression: Stripling is a rich man's Sweat. His rating is defensible, though his ceiling is further inside, not at defensive end, so it's a half-miss by the networks. What is this to say? Herman is building a program, not a season, not a team, not a game, and not a recruiting class.

 

 

Probably the best article on recruiting that has been written in the past 3-5 years. Excellent analysis, and why people that fret over this shit are retarded.

Through his 1st two full cycles Urban had signed 7 DE's for an average of 0.9056 and 2 DT's for an average of 0.9221.

Texas has signed or has committed 6 DEs for an average of 0.8825 and 1 DT at 0.9468.

Ohio State didn't sign their 1st 5 star DL until 2016.

Edited by HtownHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My dad was a coach and one of his favorite old adages was that the further you are from the ball the easier you are to evaluate.
Any fucking schmuck (EJ, Barton, et al) can tell you WR X is really good. RB the same. Interior OL are harder to evaluate than OTs for the same reason. [mention=339]Gardner Barnes[/mention] can tell you a fuckload more about it than I can because he played C and unless you've played C (and depending on the complexity of your offense) you can't grasp all the fucking mental gymnastics that go along with the position before you ever get to the job of snapping the ball and then you still have to defeat a guy that likely has a huge physical/athletic advantage on you AND doesn't have to snap a ball between his legs before putting both hands on you to ragdoll your ass. 
This is why WR rankings and widely overblown on all of the services. It's why CB rankings are easier than FS which is easier than SS.  
This is also why you see terrible and/or weird overrated pass rushers. (call it the RJ Washington effect). Guys that clearly can't maintain gap integrity, that don't use leverage well, they don't read and diagnose, they don't play well coming across the OTs face -- and yet they are 4* or higher because at 220 pounds they can explode off the ball and run faster than a 300 pound high school kid to the QB. Shocking. Those guys get to college where the 300 pounders have redshirted, discovered weights, yoga, and martial arts/boxing/hand fighting techniques - and find that as they try to run past the big man, they take a punch to the fucking chest or simply to their inside shoulder, or just get mirrored out and have they no technique or natural feel to overcome a single move. One trick ponies. 
 
 

Awesome post. I played center for awhile until I thoroughly embarrassed myself. My nickname should have been El Matador.
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, golfclap said:

My dad was a coach and one of his favorite old adages was that the further you are from the ball the easier you are to evaluate.

Any fucking schmuck (EJ, Barton, et al) can tell you WR X is really good. RB the same. Interior OL are harder to evaluate than OTs for the same reason. @Gardner Barnes can tell you a fuckload more about it than I can because he played C and unless you've played C (and depending on the complexity of your offense) you can't grasp all the fucking mental gymnastics that go along with the position before you ever get to the job of snapping the ball and then you still have to defeat a guy that likely has a huge physical/athletic advantage on you AND doesn't have to snap a ball between his legs before putting both hands on you to ragdoll your ass. 

This is why WR rankings and widely overblown on all of the services. It's why CB rankings are easier than FS which is easier than SS.  

This is also why you see terrible and/or weird overrated pass rushers. (call it the RJ Washington effect). Guys that clearly can't maintain gap integrity, that don't use leverage well, they don't read and diagnose, they don't play well coming across the OTs face -- and yet they are 4* or higher because at 220 pounds they can explode off the ball and run faster than a 300 pound high school kid to the QB. Shocking. Those guys get to college where the 300 pounders have redshirted, discovered weights, yoga, and martial arts/boxing/hand fighting techniques - and find that as they try to run past the big man, they take a punch to the fucking chest or simply to their inside shoulder, or just get mirrored out and have they no technique or natural feel to overcome a single move. One trick ponies. 

 

 

I think OL is easily the most difficult position to evaluate, at least it is for me. The two guys whose opinions I value in OL evals the most (one is a high level OL coach), almost always see things completely differently from the consensus, and even what I see at first glance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

Probably the best article on recruiting that has been written in the past 3-5 years. Excellent analysis, and why people that fret over this shit are retarded.

Through his 1st two full cycles Urban had signed 7 DE's for an average of 0.9056 and 2 DT's for an average of 0.9221.

Texas has signed or has committed 6 DEs for an average of 0.8825 and 1 DT at 0.9468.

Ohio State didn't sign their 1st 5 star DL until 2016.

.15 below Urban at the DE. That shit is unacceptable. We will never win a championship like that.

 

- Satyanaash probably

Edited by Vertigo
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


Awesome post. I played center for awhile until I thoroughly embarrassed myself. My nickname should have been El Matador.

Are you talking about football or some other activity?

 

2 minutes ago, Fud said:

I think OL is easily the most difficult position to evaluate, at least it is for me. The two guys whose opinions I value in OL evals the most (one is a high level OL coach), almost always see things completely differently from the consensus, and even what I see at first glance. 

Different coaches also look for different things. I remember Doug Dawson saw the OL coach for Nebraska in the Dallas airport and they started talking. At the time there was an elite OL recruit that everyone wanted. Doug immediately assumed that was who Nebraska was after. The Nebraska OL coach said he was pretty good but they were after a different guy. That guy ended up doing very well - better than the elite recruit - and was eventually drafted into the league. And he was pretty much under the radar and Texas didn't really give him a look.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

Probably the best article on recruiting that has been written in the past 3-5 years. Excellent analysis, and why people that fret over this shit are retarded.

Through his 1st two full cycles Urban had signed 7 DE's for an average of 0.9056 and 2 DT's for an average of 0.9221.

Texas has signed or has committed 6 DEs for an average of 0.8825 and 1 DT at 0.9468.

Ohio State didn't sign their 1st 5 star DL until 2016.

Lulz. I read that and thought it was mostly bullshit. 

There was a lot of aggy-esque sunshine pumping in there. IT says just about all of our recruits are underrated pretty much every year.  The article also makes it sound like Herman's first choice was to take 3 stars and coach them up while ignoring the fact that most of the 3 stars we have taken the last two years are due to missing out on higher rated guys the staff prioritized first.  The staff did a great job mitigating their misses last year, and I like our class and tend to think most those guys are underrated except for Coburn and Carson.  I'm not as high on this year's class so far. Sweat and Carter (assuming he's in) should be 3 stars. They're solid players but don't have very high ceilings from what I can see (and their offer list echoes that). Mpagi is underrated, and I expect his rating will rise with a strong senior year.   

Regarding your data on tOSU, I have no idea where you got your numbers, but they're way off and entirely misleading. Urb's 2 first full classes were 2013 and 2014. He took 6 DEs (including Hubbard who was listed at ATH but played DE) for an avg of 91.38.  This included first-round pick Joey Bosa in 2013, who is a similar size and rating to the #1 target we just missed on in Leal. Weighing down that number were 2 3-stars Urb took in 2014. Both barely played and ended up transferring. For DT, he took 3 guys with an average of 91.45.  For UT, you said we only took one DT but we've taken 2: Ojomo and Coburn. So for DE, it's 5 guys with an avg of 88.13 and 2 DTs with an avg of 91.76.  tOSU's total DL average was: 91.40.  UT's total DL avg over 2 years: 89.16. Further, only 2/7 of UT's commits were 4 stars. For tOSU, 7/9 were 4 stars and the only ones who actually contributed were 4 stars.  All this also glosses over the fact that tOSU had 2 5 star DEs in their 2012 class and another DE who was #92 overall. Point being, Urban recruited significantly better on the DL his first two years, and the talent he's utilized to get to where he's at now with tOSU is much better than the talent Herman and Co. will have to utilize for the next few years.  Your comp to tOSU doesn't hold up at all.

I don't understand why people either completely deny bad news or get irrationally angry and upset when confronted with it, whether it's that Herman made some big mistakes in his initial hires with guys like Mehringer, Warehime, and Beck, or that DL recruiting has some issues and is lagging behind this staff's recruiting at pretty much every other position.  The 2018 DL class was good, but it wasn't the staff's Plan A like IT is trying to say, and it's not sustainable to do it that way every year. 2019 is shaping up to be worse than 2018, unless we find 2 Ojomo's in this class or a big time recruitment takes a major turn.  All these things can be overcome and no one's saying that we're doomed and Herman will be a definite failure, but they're also fair to point out. There is no doubt in my mind the offensive hires lost us at least two games last year (there were 3 games alone where our O couldn't' score than 10 in regulation), which is negatively affecting our 2019 recruiting and will negatively affect our 2020 recruiting, unless we turn it around this year, which I'm not super optimistic about since Beck is still the OC and all three offenders are still on staff, not to mention the opportunity cost of wasting 3 coaching spots on TE and WR when we could (and should) be using at least one of those spots to help out DL recruiting.  Anyways, I like Herman and I'm hopeful he can be a good coach at UT, but he absolutely under performed on the field last year and there are things he needs to fix in the program. It shouldn't be that hard to hold both of those ideas in your head at the same time. 

Anyways, these conversations are probably gonna keep coming up ad nauseum while things are slow, my work is picking up, and I waste way too much got dam time on this site, so I'll be signing off for a while. Have a fun dead period y'all!

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, UT Lawnghorn said:

Regarding your data on tOSU, I have no idea where you got your numbers, but they're way off and entirely misleading. Urb's 2 first full classes were 2013 and 2014. He took 6 DEs (including Hubbard who was listed at ATH but played DE) for an avg of 91.38.  This included first-round pick Joey Bosa in 2013, who is a similar size and rating to the #1 target we just missed on in Leal. Weighing down that number were 2 3-stars Urb took in 2014. Both barely played and ended up transferring. For DT, he took 3 guys with an average of 91.45.  For UT, you said we only took one DT but we've taken 2: Ojomo and Coburn. So for DE, it's 5 guys with an avg of 88.13 and 2 DTs with an avg of 91.76.  tOSU's total DL average was: 91.40.  UT's total DL avg over 2 years: 89.16. Further, only 2/7 of UT's commits were 4 stars. For tOSU, 7/9 were 4 stars and the only ones who actually contributed were 4 stars.  All this also glosses over the fact that tOSU had 2 5 star DEs in their 2012 class and another DE who was #92 overall. Point being, Urban recruited significantly better on the DL his first two years, and the talent he's utilized to get to where he's at now with tOSU is much better than the talent Herman and Co. will have to utilize for the next few years.  Your comp to tOSU doesn't hold up at all.

You are right I I put Munger at DE when he was a DT.

DE

Bosa - 0.9819

Lewis - 0.8978

Sprinkle = 0.8594

Holmes - 0.9650

Hubbard - 0.9230

Thompson - 0.8721

Slade - 0.8457

DT

Hill - 0.9276

Price - 0.9165

Munger - 0.8996

Edited by HtownHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

When I think about recruits, I imagine a two by two graph, with physical on one axis and drive on the other. You want no one in the low drive, low physical quadrant, obviously. You don’t want high physical, low drive because you can’t win a conference title with that. They will quit under adversity.

If you can get strong drive and good enough physical, you have a winning formula. But to win at the national level you have to have that top right quadrant for most of the line positions. I don’t worry too much about smarts on the line, other than staying eligible, because it’s not that complicated to learn your schemes by year two. Smarts and drive don’t always come together. I know a lot of lazy smart people.

,,,, I 

 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Interesting to note, BamaOnline insider Hank South says both Jeffery Carter and Noa Pola-Gates are on 'commit watch'. Both are in Tuscaloosa for Alabama's 'Champions Cookout'.

I'm hoping Carter holds off, I'd give him a shot to get his shit together off the field surrounded by Catalon and his cousin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, satyanash said:

Interesting to note, BamaOnline insider Hank South says both Jeffery Carter and Noa Pola-Gates are on 'commit watch'. Both are in Tuscaloosa for Alabama's 'Champions Cookout'.

Yeah Pola-Gates has been getting Bama' picks throughout the day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

He had a Texas offer but never visited and is a stud, but DL Nathan Pickering committed to Miss. State today.  They have a pretty solid class going.  I'm betting they win more times than not going forward against aggy.

As a Rebel fan when it comes to the SEC that's a bummer. Don't like klan aggy actually getting good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Hat placement/prominence looking good for Texas, but two visible SEC hats means #AdvantageAggy

 

Ours looks like it’s been worn more than a couple times as well - others don’t 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

He had a Texas offer but never visited and is a stud, but DL Nathan Pickering committed to Miss. State today.  They have a pretty solid class going.  I'm betting they win more times than not going forward against aggy.

Mississippi is fairly loaded this cycle. Top 16 Mississippi recruits are all in the composite top 400. To give you perspective, the last two years there were only 5 and 8 from Mississippi. 

Both coaches from Mississippi walked into a good situation. Mississippi is starting to produce some talent.

Miss State's DL is going to go in dry on aggy's OL much like Clemson. Simmons, Sweat, and Thomas = one of the best defensive lines in the country. I actually think Jimbo kept the wrong DL coach. David Turner built a monster at Mississippi State and A&M's defensive tackles weren't the problem either.

Edited by texasstrong12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, texifornia said:

As a Rebel fan when it comes to the SEC that's a bummer. Don't like klan aggy actually getting good.

Moorhead won't be there long. Mississippi State is the 5th most experienced team in college football next year and a lot of people are picking them to finish 2nd or 3rd in the SEC West. Moorhead will probably be a hot commodity at the end of next year. 

 

Edited by texasstrong12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

Moorhead won't be there long. Mississippi State is the 5th most experienced team in college football next year and a lot of people are picking them to finish 2nd or 3rd in the SEC West. Moorhead will probably be a hot commodity at the end of next year. 

 

Very doubtful that he leaves after 1 yr, but with Meyer's health, Harbaugh and Kelly on the hot seats I could see him jumping at one of those openings. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Noah Cain retweeting, liking, etc tons of LSU media this week. Hopefully the 995ers aren’t overplaying our position with him. Not a lot of great targets behind him in this class, and we most certainly need a quality rb this year since Evans will be an absolute dog fight next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe the thought is that in normal circumstances - LSU not already taking one or two RBs ahead of him and not having a mush-for-brains as head coach - Cain would probably be LSU-bound.

As with Wright, I don't think it matters too much until the season plays out as long as we're in the conversation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Noah Cain retweeting, liking, etc tons of LSU media this week. Hopefully the 995ers aren’t overplaying our position with him. Not a lot of great targets behind him in this class, and we most certainly need a quality rb this year since Evans will be an absolute dog fight next year.

He's supposedly visiting them this weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Enchubben said:

Noah Cain retweeting, liking, etc tons of LSU media this week. Hopefully the 995ers aren’t overplaying our position with him. Not a lot of great targets behind him in this class, and we most certainly need a quality rb this year since Evans will be an absolute dog fight next year.

I'm more concerned about Georgia with him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Enchubben said:

Noah Cain retweeting, liking, etc tons of LSU media this week. Hopefully the 995ers aren’t overplaying our position with him. Not a lot of great targets behind him in this class, and we most certainly need a quality rb this year since Evans will be an absolute dog fight next year.

Georgia is getting a lot of talk on this kid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...