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~95K noncitizens registered to vote, ~58k voted in the last Texas election

Thetexashammer

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/58000-Non-US-Citizens-Voted-in-Texas-State-Elections-Attorney-General-Paxton-Says-504879201.html

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The Texas Department of Public Safety has identified 58,000 non-U.S. citizens who voted in one or more Texas elections, dating to 1996, according to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office.

Further, the DPS said there were about 95,000 non-citizens they identified as having a voter registration record in the state.

"Texas law allows lawfully present noncitizens to obtain driver’s licenses by showing proof of lawful presence to DPS," Paxton's office said in a statement. "However, only citizens are eligible to vote. And Texas law currently does not require verification of a voter’s statement that they are a citizen."

It's not clear if the remaining 37,000 people attempted to vote in any election, be it local, state or federal, or if those who did vote in state elections also voted in federal elections.

HuffPo made a valid point that not all are noncitizens. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-texas-voter-fraud_us_5c4dceb4e4b06ba6d3be02e8

Quote

But what Texas officials actually found is far less certain, The Texas Tribune reported.

The secretary of state’s office in a Friday memo said it had identified 95,000 people on voter rolls that it suspects are non-citizens and sent the names to county officials to probe further. The state flagged the 95,000 by matching data from people who at one time had been documented as legal permanent residents against the state’s voter registration database. But what remains unclear is how many of those residents may now be citizens or if all the matches are accurate.

Beth Stevens, voting rights legal director at the Texas Civil Rights Project, questioned the accuracy of the memo from the secretary of state’s office. Stevens said about 50,000 Texans became naturalized citizens each year and it was “highly suspect” that the memo took that into account.

So certainly some of them became citizens, since they where identified in the past as legal residents. However, this methodology also ignores illegal aliens who can register, based on a mere "statement" that they are citizens, since they never would have been in that database. So there are both type I and type II errors here.

All of this simply speaks to massive incompetence. Why are we registering voters who can't prove citizenship? There are 40 million noncitizens in the US. We just trust them to be honest? Fuck that. I mean, no offense, I don't trust actual citizens either. In the immortal words of Depeche Mode, people are people.

I mean fuck it lets just make voting into an online poll so that the Aggies can win it all by cheating.

 

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ndawg

ndawg 1242

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If these people are voting illegally, they certainly don't have a sympathetic government to show for it.

I invite any conservative to take a gander at our elected representatives and venture their best guess as to how many of them are in office because of the votes of illegal immigrants.

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Mole

Mole 4333

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I haven’t clicked the link, but the OP headline says 58k votes in the last election while the quoted part says 58k in elections dating back to 1996. There’s a big difference between 58k last election and 58k in one or more election over the last 2 decades.

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Goredho

Goredho 17412

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35 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/58000-Non-US-Citizens-Voted-in-Texas-State-Elections-Attorney-General-Paxton-Says-504879201.html

HuffPo made a valid point that not all are noncitizens. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-texas-voter-fraud_us_5c4dceb4e4b06ba6d3be02e8

So certainly some of them became citizens, since they where identified in the past as legal residents. However, this methodology also ignores illegal aliens who can register, based on a mere "statement" that they are citizens, since they never would have been in that database. So there are both type I and type II errors here.

All of this simply speaks to massive incompetence. Why are we registering voters who can't prove citizenship? There are 40 million noncitizens in the US. We just trust them to be honest? Fuck that. I mean, no offense, I don't trust actual citizens either. In the immortal words of Depeche Mode, people are people.

I mean fuck it lets just make voting into an online poll so that the Aggies can win it all by cheating.

 

So assuming this is all accurate and there are a significant number of non-US citizens voting in Texas, what’s the solution to that problem?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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58K divided by at least 12, probably closer to 16-18 Texas elections since 1996 (many years there are > 1 election, often in March or May, as well as November).

Even just using 12 (the number of elections every 2 years, not even including odd-numbered years or > 1 election per year, and excludes 2018... i.e. this is very liberally figured to give the "most" non-US voter percentages, the actual figure is probably well towards even less), that's about 4,833 non-US citizens per year average, never mind > 1 election per year.

That's barely out of the "human error" level.  Texas had over 9 million registered voters in 1996 and now about 16 million.  Even taking the average of about 12 million during this run,  that's 0.04%.   According to a few general human error tables I've seen, this type of task (reading within a page of text and following directions) has a general error rate of 0.02-0.06 percent of participants.

One thing is for sure, that rate on average could not affect almost any Texas election since 1996.  I'd have to go back and see if anything outside of local dog catcher with like 33 registered voters in Bumfucksville had a separation rate of 0.04 or less... my guess is zero zilch, but I guess one or two is possible.  Point:  hasn't affected shit.

All this sounds like general dumbassery to me, just tracking people making mistakes.  That ain't much, and certainly nothing with agenda written on it.  Just people being human to me.  

Edited by phdhorn
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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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20 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

58K divided by at least 12, probably closer to 16-18 Texas elections since 1996 (many years there are > 1 election, often in March or May, as well as November).

Even just using 12 (the number of elections every 2 years, not even including odd-numbered years or > 1 election per year, and excludes 2018... i.e. this is very liberally figured to give the "most" non-US voter percentages, the actual figure is probably well towards even less), that's about 4,833 non-US citizens per year average, never mind > 1 election per year.

That's barely out of the "human error" level.  Texas had over 9 million registered voters in 1996 and now about 16 million.  Even taking the average of about 12 million during this run,  that's 0.04%.   According to a few general human error tables I've seen, this type of task (reading within a page of text and following directions) has a general error rate of 0.02-0.06 percent of participants.

One thing is for sure, that rate on average could not affect almost any Texas election since 1996.  I'd have to go back and see if anything outside of local dog catcher with like 33 registered voters in Bumfucksville had a separation rate of 0.04 or less... my guess is zero zilch, but I guess one or two is possible.  Point:  hasn't affected shit.

All this sounds like general dumbassery to me, just tracking people making mistakes.  That ain't much, and certainly nothing with agenda written on it.  Just people being human to me.  

Good post. Also, the huff post point is a big one.  LPRs can naturalize after 5 years or 3 years if married to a citizen. 1996 was 23 years ago. 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

There are 40 million noncitizens in the US.

Damn, more than 1 in 10 US residents is a non-citizen?

Next time I'm in a group of 9 or more people I'm going to be trying to figure out who is/are the non-citizen(s).

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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heso

heso 2813

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5 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Damn, more than 1 in 10 US residents is a non-citizen?

There were 12 million immigrants living in the country illegally as of January 2015, according to the most recent estimate from the Department of Homeland Security. The estimates from two independent groups are similar: The Pew Research Center estimatesthe number at 10.7 million in 2016, and the Center for Migration Studies says there were 10.8 million people in 2016 living in the U.S. illegally.

That would be about 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent of the total U.S. population in 2016 or 2015.

All three groups use Census Bureau data on the foreign-born or noncitizens and adjust to subtract the legal immigrant population.

DHS estimated that the growth of the illegal immigrant population had slowed considerably, saying the population increased by 470,000 per year from 2000 to 2007, but only by 70,000 per year from 2010 to 2015.

CMS found a decline in the undocumented population, and specifically those from Mexico, of about 1 million since 2010. And the Pew Research Center found a peak of 12.2 million in the population in 2007, and a decline since.

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/06/illegal-immigration-statistics/

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26454

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53 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Damn, more than 1 in 10 US residents is a non-citizen?

Next time I'm in a group of 9 or more people I'm going to be trying to figure out who is/are the non-citizen(s).

Be careful what you wish for-- if you can't figure out who the non-citizen is, is might be you.

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DanRydell

DanRydell 799

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Roughly 50k Texas residents become naturalized citizens each year. Since 1996, that'd be over one million people. So that would be fewer than 10% of those who got an ID or driver's license prior to naturalizing and who then registered to vote and/or voted after becoming a citizen.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2013/10/03/what-percentage-of-u-s-population-is-foreign-born/

Quote

In 2013, over 40 million foreign-born representing 13% of the population resided in the United States.

If I was imprecise in my terminology I apologize. But that is what I was getting at. It's not a disputed number.

Scottsins, there was no lying, but please do have a lovely evening.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13049

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4 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2013/10/03/what-percentage-of-u-s-population-is-foreign-born/

If I was imprecise in my terminology I apologize. But that is what I was getting at. It's not a disputed number.

Scottsins, there was no lying, but please do have a lovely evening.

You blatantly lied. 58k non citizens did not vote in the last election. Period.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

You blatantly lied. 58k non citizens did not vote in the last election. Period.

It was an estimate reported by the Texas AG. Therefore I described it as an estimate. I elucidated why it could be lower, then described why it could be higher. What else would you have me do?

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CO Horn

CO Horn 167

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6 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2013/10/03/what-percentage-of-u-s-population-is-foreign-born/

If I was imprecise in my terminology I apologize. But that is what I was getting at. It's not a disputed number.

Scottsins, there was no lying, but please do have a lovely evening.

Foreign born does not equal non-citizens,  but I’m sure you already knew that. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29355

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1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

No it wasn’t. Read the fucking information. They did not estimate 58k non citizens voted in the last Texas election. It’s not up for debate. You posted a headline without doing research and now you look foolish

Also known as a day ending in Y for hammer.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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2 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

No it wasn’t. Read the fucking information. They did not estimate 58k non citizens voted in the last Texas election. It’s not up for debate. You posted a headline without doing research and now you look foolish

95k noncitizens were found on the voter rolls. Quoting the article again:

Quote

The Texas Department of Public Safety has identified 58,000 non-U.S. citizens who voted in one or more Texas elections, dating to 1996, according to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office.

Further, the DPS said there were about 95,000 non-citizens they identified as having a voter registration record in the state.

 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37987

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Caravans!  Rapists and drug dealers!  Bad hombres!  And their pregnant women are coming here and spawning in free clinics that YOU paid for.  It's a national crisis!  Look over here at these shiny car keys, aren't they shiny?!  Don't worry about the fact that everyone your president has ever known or employed is a felon, or that your president gets a boner when he talks to Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un, or that he conspired with Russia to rig an election.  Focus on what's important: brown people want to come here and pick lettuce and bus your table and clean your house!  And now they want to vote, too?!  That is a bridge too far, America.  Only white foreigners get to meddle in our elections!

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Now wait just a cotton pickin minute. Are some of y’all questionin’ the veracity of something Ken Paxton said? Well let me remind you that he has only been under felony indictment for 4 years or so, not convicted. There is a difference ya know.

And its good to see governor hot wheels chime in on all the things he’s gonna do with the illegals that he hasn’t gotten around to doing yet and nobody else previously for the last 20 years had either. He’s such a strong leader I’m gonna buy him a brand new wheelchair that moves even damn faster than the one he’s got.  Fuckin’ liberal slow wheel chair makers.

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32395

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56 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

It was an estimate reported by the Texas AG. Therefore I described it as an estimate. I elucidated why it could be lower, then described why it could be higher. What else would you have me do?

Then your bitch, if you choose to believe those numbers, is the Texas GOP, considering they hold everything in the state and have controlled every election for decades now.

 

So is it your assertion that the Texas GOP has failed the state of Texas?

 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

It was an estimate reported by the Texas AG. Therefore I described it as an estimate. I elucidated why it could be lower, then described why it could be higher. What else would you have me do?

You could be halfway truthful and not start an idiotic troll post espousing falsehoods and lies. Is that too much to ask of you? Maybe so. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16584

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Oh boy, another manufactured crisis without hard evidence of illegal activity.

 

4 hours ago, ndawg said:

If these people are voting illegally, they certainly don't have a sympathetic government to show for it.

I invite any conservative to take a gander at our elected representatives and venture their best guess as to how many of them are in office because of the votes of illegal immigrants.

 

4 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So, for for 19 years, we've had either a Rick Perry or Greg Abbott administration and they've allowed 95K illegals to register?  Does Voter ID not work?

 

4 hours ago, Mole said:

I haven’t clicked the link, but the OP headline says 58k votes in the last election while the quoted part says 58k in elections dating back to 1996. There’s a big difference between 58k last election and 58k in one or more election over the last 2 decades.

 

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

58K divided by at least 12, probably closer to 16-18 Texas elections since 1996 (many years there are > 1 election, often in March or May, as well as November).

Even just using 12 (the number of elections every 2 years, not even including odd-numbered years or > 1 election per year, and excludes 2018... i.e. this is very liberally figured to give the "most" non-US voter percentages, the actual figure is probably well towards even less), that's about 4,833 non-US citizens per year average, never mind > 1 election per year.

That's barely out of the "human error" level.  Texas had over 9 million registered voters in 1996 and now about 16 million.  Even taking the average of about 12 million during this run,  that's 0.04%.   According to a few general human error tables I've seen, this type of task (reading within a page of text and following directions) has a general error rate of 0.02-0.06 percent of participants.

One thing is for sure, that rate on average could not affect almost any Texas election since 1996.  I'd have to go back and see if anything outside of local dog catcher with like 33 registered voters in Bumfucksville had a separation rate of 0.04 or less... my guess is zero zilch, but I guess one or two is possible.  Point:  hasn't affected shit.

All this sounds like general dumbassery to me, just tracking people making mistakes.  That ain't much, and certainly nothing with agenda written on it.  Just people being human to me.  

 

2 hours ago, Asithappens said:

Yeah, where the fuck have our politicians been on addressing this issue?

Gov. Hot Wheels needs to take a stand on this. Stat.

Let me guess. He can't.

 

1 hour ago, DanRydell said:

Roughly 50k Texas residents become naturalized citizens each year. Since 1996, that'd be over one million people. So that would be fewer than 10% of those who got an ID or driver's license prior to naturalizing and who then registered to vote and/or voted after becoming a citizen.

 

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Not repeat anything our felon AG says.

 

Gee, it's almost as if this entire dilemma that has suddenly appeared on the scene in the past 24 hours is completely made up and is a blatant attempt to rile up the gullible base of a certain political party.

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Js1

Js1 85439

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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gee, it's almost as if this entire dilemma that has suddenly appeared on the scene in the past 24 hours is completely made up and is a blatant attempt to rile up the gullible base of a certain political party.

I don’t think the #s are made up, as the Tribune wouldn’t report on it otherwise. The interpretation of “what it means” by the Trump/Abbott crowd is hilarious Bc if true, then it would be proof that strong voter ID laws enacted by a state with GOP control since 94 was a huge spectacular failure. 

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