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~95K noncitizens registered to vote, ~58k voted in the last Texas election

Thetexashammer

By Thetexashammer
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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

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Just to give you some more background on hammer's newest non-story deflection attempt.  Back in early 2018 Metcalf claimed over 100,000 illegally registered voters.  After the information was finally released, that number was 11,000.  Out of 8.5 million.  And that's registered, not ones who actually voted. Clearly a yuge problem that a wall might solve.  Most of those illegals were probably ex-Trump employees, too.

 

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bolverk

bolverk 29694

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21 minutes ago, CO Horn said:

Again, it says"registered to vote foreign nationals" not "noncitizens voting"

There is nothing showing they actually voted, nor that they were Hispanic.

And they were certainly almost all naturalized citizens (like 99%) by the time they registered since the original list was taken from old driver's licenses for which you don't need to be a citizen to obtain.

I know this is known by most here but felt this needed to be clearly stated for the lurkers who don't obsessively follow politics (aka Cloak Room shit).

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elfenix

elfenix 34328

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11 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 


Shit! I was pulled out with (what my mom describes as) tongs. I think I’m a pretty sharp lookin fella though. For everyone here that knows me... is this what I really look like?

 

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Negged for not responding to the news the Texas numbers, at least from one county we have heard from, were 100% bullshit. 

Here's the quote you are probably referring to in the Tribune article.

Quote

When it comes to Texas voter rolls, the state has a lot of homework still to do. And rolling out the possible worst-case conclusion — that 58,000 noncitizens have voted in state elections over the last 22 years — wasn’t very smart.

I linked an article in the OP critizing Ken Paxton because political shills aren't to be trusted. I haven't changed my feelings about that.

But your declarative statement "100% bullshit" is a lie, by the terms we are now employing, since it is factually wrong. The Tribune is bound by facts, you don't seem to be.

 

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17625

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19 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Here's the quote you are probably referring to in the Tribune article.

I linked an article in the OP critizing Ken Paxton because political shills aren't to be trusted. I haven't changed my feelings about that.

But your declarative statement "100% bullshit" is a lie, by the terms we are now employing, since it is factually wrong. The Tribune is bound by facts, you don't seem to be.

 

 

You should probably read the last 2 pages of this thread as well as the more recent articles. You know, the part where McLennan county said that all 366 on the list they received were verified citizens. 100%. Verified by public officials. Or maybe read the part where Harris county has already cleared 18,000 on its list. You know, those facts that you say you like but appear to be allergic to. Moron.

And then your next post it looks like you forgot to log onto your sock account. Pathetic. 

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tchookem

tchookem 3903

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Honest (possibly dumb) question:

Were the people listed as possible non-citizens not allowed to vote in previous elections? Or were these the people dropped from being registered to vote in future elections?

I've read Tribune articles and couldn't figure those out.

TIA

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

You should probably read the last 2 pages of this thread as well as the more recent articles. You know, the part where McLennan county said that all 366 on the list they received were verified citizens. 100%. Verified by public officials. Or maybe read the part where Harris county has already cleared 18,000 on its list. You know, those facts that you say you like but appear to be allergic to. Moron.

And then your next post it looks like you forgot to log onto your sock account. Pathetic. 

You should ask an admin if I have a sock account.

If 100% are being verified as legal, I'm quite surprised. I'll look into in later when I am not as busy. I believe that on balance, there is plenty of reason to think this is a reasonable issue. Did you know that Mickey Mouse was registered in both Florida and Ohio? I guess he had a drivers license.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/even-a-homeless-mickey-mouse-can-vote-in-ohio-20081103-gdt1bl.html

Quote

"Just because someone's registered as Mickey Mouse doesn't mean Mickey Mouse is going to show up to vote. You'd have to have a driver's licence with a picture that says 'Mickey Mouse' to do that."

And like a good liberal, they deny that Mickey can vote. But of course he can vote without ID all over the country, or vote by mail. The system is fucked. If it turns out there aren't large numbers voting, fine. But there is plenty of reason to be very suspicious. We simply lack good information.

I will follow the evidence. There is more than one credible report of noncitizens voting. We'll see how it turns out. But to simply say it's not happening is naive as hell. You can turn a presidential election with fewer than a thousand votes and 13% of noncitizens (or was it illegal aliens, if I get it wrong I'm a liar I guess) claimed to be registered. You have to assume both parties are actively engage in fraud where they can get away with it. There is plenty of reason to be concerned. 

 

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

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30 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

You should ask an admin if I have a sock account.

If 100% are being verified as legal, I'm quite surprised. I'll look into in later when I am not as busy. I believe that on balance, there is plenty of reason to think this is a reasonable issue. Did you know that Mickey Mouse was registered in both Florida and Ohio? I guess he had a drivers license.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/even-a-homeless-mickey-mouse-can-vote-in-ohio-20081103-gdt1bl.html

And like a good liberal, they deny that Mickey can vote. But of course he can vote without ID all over the country, or vote by mail. The system is fucked. If it turns out there aren't large numbers voting, fine. But there is plenty of reason to be very suspicious. We simply lack good information.

I will follow the evidence. There is more than one credible report of noncitizens voting. We'll see how it turns out. But to simply say it's not happening is naive as hell. You can turn a presidential election with fewer than a thousand votes and 13% of noncitizens (or was it illegal aliens, if I get it wrong I'm a liar I guess) claimed to be registered. You have to assume both parties are actively engage in fraud where they can get away with it. There is plenty of reason to be concerned. 

 

Man, if you get this genuinely concerned about a few hundred possibly fraudulent voters undermining the integrity and sanctity of our democratic elections, you must REALLY get bent about a foreign government interfering in them.  Right?  You should express some concern in those threads.  

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Dahobbs

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9 hours ago, tchookem said:

Honest (possibly dumb) question:

Were the people listed as possible non-citizens not allowed to vote in previous elections? Or were these the people dropped from being registered to vote in future elections?

I've read Tribune articles and couldn't figure those out.

TIA

None of those. Someone tried to compare different databases, one of people registered to vote and one of people who at one time were listed as non citizens (e.g., had visa or greencard) on their drivers license. However, apparently almost no analysis was done on the timing of these events, so it is possible that you really just have a list of people who have become naturalized over the previous 20 years. Even worse, who ever was doing the comparison apparently had no idea how actually examine data, resulting in the quick and quiet about face. I assume it was some staffer who just learned how to use excel and messed up a simple power query or something. 

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tchookem

tchookem 3903

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None of those. Someone tried to compare different databases, one of people registered to vote and one of people who at one time were listed as non citizens (e.g., had visa or greencard) on their drivers license. However, apparently almost no analysis was done on the timing of these events, so it is possible that you really just have a list of people who have become naturalized over the previous 20 years. Even worse, who ever was doing the comparison apparently had no idea how actually examine data, resulting in the quick and quiet about face. I assume it was some staffer who just learned how to use excel and messed up a simple power query or something. 

So it was really just a (false) data point that was used to get people riled up about non-citizens voting?

 

Awesome. Thanks.

 

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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5114

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And to prove another point upthread, it did its job.  Dumb as Hammers is proving that he's not interested in actual reality, he just needs the talking point.  Well he's got himself a talking point for years to come.  Now we'll get to periodically waste time debunking his falsehood whenever he brings it up, and worse, lots of people he shares that with won't be aware its a falsehood and will believe that this is actually a problem.  

We all have to just face that fact that there are lots and lots of people who have absolutely no need to be truthful, they just need their team to win.  All else is subordinate to winning, and no lie is too big if that lie will keep their team winning.  Its pathetic.

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Longhorn_Fan68

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3 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

And to prove another point upthread, it did its job.  Dumb as Hammers is proving that he's not interested in actual reality, he just needs the talking point.  Well he's got himself a talking point for years to come.  Now we'll get to periodically waste time debunking his falsehood whenever he brings it up, and worse, lots of people he shares that with won't be aware its a falsehood and will believe that this is actually a problem.  

We all have to just face that fact that there are lots and lots of people who have absolutely no need to be truthful, they just need their team to win.  All else is subordinate to winning, and no lie is too big if that lie will keep their team winning.  Its pathetic.

I agree with everything you just said - I think Box of Hammers is a better nickname

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Thetexashammer

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13 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

None of those. Someone tried to compare different databases, one of people registered to vote and one of people who at one time were listed as non citizens (e.g., had visa or greencard) on their drivers license. However, apparently almost no analysis was done on the timing of these events, so it is possible that you really just have a list of people who have become naturalized over the previous 20 years. Even worse, who ever was doing the comparison apparently had no idea how actually examine data, resulting in the quick and quiet about face. I assume it was some staffer who just learned how to use excel and messed up a simple power query or something. 

Yes, you could have gleaned that from the first post on this thread.

Quote

The secretary of state’s office in a Friday memo said it had identified 95,000 people on voter rolls that it suspects are non-citizens and sent the names to county officials to probe further. The state flagged the 95,000 by matching data from people who at one time had been documented as legal permanent residents against the state’s voter registration database. But what remains unclear is how many of those residents may now be citizens or if all the matches are accurate.

You are taking a victory lap and claiming credit for an insight I posted in the OP.  Four pages later, you haven't ingested the most basic of assertions.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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tchookem

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You are taking a victory lap and claiming credit for an insight I posted in the OP.  Four pages later, you haven't ingested the most basic of assertions.
So you're saying that Trump (and Paxton) are slaying the non-citizen voting racket by citing the incorrect number of non-citizen voters (by 94,998)?
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17625

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18 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Yes, you could have gleaned that from the first post on this thread.

You are taking a victory lap and claiming credit for an insight I posted in the OP.  Four pages later, you haven't ingested the most basic of assertions.

What the fuck are you talking about? Another poster asked where the data came from, so I answered. I am not claiming credit for anything. I am pointing out what your dumbass failed to realize: there is no evidence of any illegal voting in this data. Worse, the assertion that these folks are potentially illegal voters is being systematically disproven. 100% of the folks on the list from one county were citizens. Tens of thousands from other counties have already been proven by the counties to be citizens. 

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck are you talking about? Another poster asked where the data came from, so I answered. I am not claiming credit for anything. I am pointing out what your dumbass failed to realize: there is no evidence of any illegal voting in this data. Worse, the assertion that these folks are potentially illegal voters is being systematically disproven. 100% of the folks on the list from one county were citizens. Tens of thousands from other counties have already been proven by the counties to be citizens. 

That was essentially an accounting error. You can reduce the ~95k by 366. Actually by more than that.  There are other errors I believe.

]

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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14 minutes ago, tchookem said:
25 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:
You are taking a victory lap and claiming credit for an insight I posted in the OP.  Four pages later, you haven't ingested the most basic of assertions.

So you're saying that Trump (and Paxton) are slaying the non-citizen voting racket by citing the incorrect number of non-citizen voters (by 94,998)?

I can post it. I can't understand it for you.

My premise is that politicians are corrupt, partisan, and incompetent. Nothing that's happened has demonstrated my thesis to be incorrect. 

Galveston is actually sending out notices. That will be real data. But even then, we are still looking at ESTIMATES, not hard data. The fallacy that YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE IT'S PRECISELY 135,642 OR YOU'RE WORSE THAN HITLER is VERY cloak room.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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On 1/27/2019 at 6:23 PM, Thetexashammer said:

It was an estimate reported by the Texas AG. Therefore I described it as an estimate. I elucidated why it could be lower, then described why it could be higher. What else would you have me do?

Post #27. It refers to the OP (Type I and Type II errors) which nobody read.

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tchookem

tchookem 3903

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I can post it. I can't understand it for you.
My premise is that politicians are corrupt, partisan, and incompetent. Nothing that's happened has demonstrated my thesis to be incorrect. 
Galveston is actually sending out notices. That will be real data. But even then, we are still looking at ESTIMATES, not hard data. The fallacy that YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE IT'S PRECISELY 135,642 OR YOU'RE WORSE THAN HITLER is VERY cloak room.
So it was just an accident that your thread title was misleading?

It happens.

A lot.

To you.
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17625

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30 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

That was essentially an accounting error. You can reduce the ~95k by 366. Actually by more than that.  There are other errors I believe.

]

Right, the whole thing was an error. That is what I was pointing out. Someone who didnt know anything about data was trying to get cute. You can actually reduce it by at least 20,000 now (Harris county). And I am betting in a few days you'll be able reduce by 80 or 90%. And then we will never hear anything about it again. 

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