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ESPN Pimping SEC

sushihorn

By sushihorn
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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They do it often enough that I thought we should document examples in one place.  We see it all the time but this latest example is beyond ridiculous.  h/t to @mdleast

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The SEC has placed 10 teams in FPI's preseason top 20.

The SEC has three of the top five teams in the country, five of the top 10 and half of the top 20!

The 10th-best SEC team (Missouri) is better than the second-best ACC team (Florida State) and the second-best Big 12 team (Texas).

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25988761/clemson-tigers-get-best-alabama-crimson-tide-again-fpi-preseason-rankings

So either ESPN's writers are morons, pathological liars or the only SEC teams that wouldn't be favored over Texas are Vandy, Arkansas, Kentucky and Ole Miss.  Does anyone actually believe that?  So I'm going with ESPN writers are pathological liars to give their IQ the benefit of the doubt.

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ztejas

ztejas 43454

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1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

So either ESPN's writers are morons, pathological liars or the only SEC teams that wouldn't be favored over Texas are Vandy, Arkansas, Kentucky and Ole Miss

Their "algorithm" fucking blows (and even calling that is a disservice to actual algorithms). Texas would go in dry on SCAR or Mizzou on a neutral field. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49196

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6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

@mdleast

so either ESPN's writers are morons, pathological liars or the only SEC teams that wouldn't be favored over Texas are Vandy, Arkansas, Kentucky and Ole Miss.  Does anyone actually believe that?  So I'm going with ESPN writers are pathological liars to give their IQ the benefit of the doubt.

No doubt heavy bias by ESPN towards sec.  Gonna be fun to watch how much MORE the folks at ESPN pimp ACC in 2019 with their new ACC Network starting in Aug 2019.

sec fans won't like that some of ESPN's attention will be taken away by ACC.....

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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Just now, GotThatFire said:

 Yeah in my opinion they’re doing us a favor. 

No doubt.  Let LSU read the mountain of praise for their team and their conference for the next 7 months.  Let Sam, BJ Foster and the boys stew in the disrespect for motivation.  Then Herman can give the "Let them know what they signed up for from the opening play" speech and unleash Hell.

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Cairn Horn88

Cairn Horn88 8265

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27 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

They do it often enough that I thought we should document examples in one place.  We see it all the time but this latest example is beyond ridiculous.  h/t to @mdleast

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25988761/clemson-tigers-get-best-alabama-crimson-tide-again-fpi-preseason-rankings

So either ESPN's writers are morons, pathological liars or the only SEC teams that wouldn't be favored over Texas are Vandy, Arkansas, Kentucky and Ole Miss.  Does anyone actually believe that?  So I'm going with ESPN writers are pathological liars to give their IQ the benefit of the doubt.

Not sure, but didn't ESPN rank the sec last year's preseason teams similar to this upcoming's year? We've talked about this a million times;  rank sec teams high to start and if they lose a game, since they've been highly ranked...they won't drop as far.  Then, keep them in the top 25 during the year, get better bowl games, mo money, better ending rankings (hopefully)...and it starts over.  ESPN totally is biased over there....it's their bread and butt.

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ztejas

ztejas 43454

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55 minutes ago, Gucci_Suit said:

Leave The Onion out of this. At this point, I trust them more than any other journalist org out there. 

Every Tim Duncan article they ever wrote was gold. 

Prob my fav 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports.theonion.com/tim-duncan-offers-to-do-taxes-for-entire-spurs-team-1819569755/amp

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Their "algorithm" fucking blows (and even calling that is a disservice to actual algorithms). Texas would go in dry on SCAR or Mizzou on a neutral field. 

I can't say I have ever actually paid any attention to "FPI" before, so I scanned the article to see how it is calculated (I am not going to take the time to really try to understand it because I really don't care that much). From the article:

FPI ratings are determined through four factors:

  • Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
  • Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall and on defense
  • Whether a team has a returning head coach
  • Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

I'm not sure how everything is weighted, but we have 2 Charlie Strong seasons factored into our rating, apparently. And we lost a lot of starters. That's pretty much it.  

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ztejas

ztejas 43454

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6 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I'm not sure how everything is weighted, but we have 2 Charlie Strong seasons factored into our rating, apparently. And we lost a lot of starters. That's pretty much it.  

Cool. That doesn't make it a good set of criteria. Charlie isn't coaching anymore. The Charlie players are gone. We are starting a junior QB who played phenomenal football down the stretch as a sophomore. All of our coaches returned. We just had the #3 class in the nation. 

ESPN should look at shit like this and say "hey, this is telling us Texas and USC are going to be on the same level next season. We should probably adjust our formula."

But instead they come out and parrot SEC bias and generate clickbait by leaving Texas out of the top 25. 

This isn't some omniscient formula. It's a formula they created, and if it sucks they should alter it. 

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Lhorn

Lhorn 4914

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1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Just to highlight the absurdity of these rankings, ESPN had the Chernobyl level meltdown finish at Michigan in the #5 spot.  And to add insult to injury, 3-9 UCLA is several spots ahead of TEXAS.

That’s hilarious. 10 win Texas returning one of the top Qb in the nation, who just punked one of ESPNs SEC golden boy teams in the Sugar bowl is several places worse than a 3 win team.  Their analysis seems spot on!

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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So I was bored and decided to compare the 2018 preseason FPIU projections and postseason actual outcomes. I was curious how well preseason FPI projected winning % matched up with actual outcomes in 2018, so I compared preseason FPI projected W% with final results.

Now, I know that FPI ranking isn't exactly supposed to match performance; however, in their preseason rankings, winning % matched FPI ranking pretty closely...here is a comparison of preseason projected win % (y-axis) and FPI ranking (x) of P5 teams:

19ddd7ed-2e77-4090-8b91-da95c5a55b7a-ori

So pretty close. 

Here is the comparison of 2018 preseason FPI projected win% (x-axis) and actual 2018 win% (y) - Texas is the orange dot (it tabbed UT pretty well last year):

7e7ba781-d605-429a-904d-52ca57cf1ba9-ori

Not that great. I get that randomness and luck play a role in these things, but this indicates that the factors FPI uses to project a team's winning % for a season accounts for less than half of the variance. 

All this is to say that FPI may serve some purpose (it is more geared toward picking individual games), but it isn't that great at projecting winning % for an entire season. 

In fairness, a single college football season is a small sample of games, meaning that luck (good or bad) impacts winning % much more than it does in, say, an MLB season of 162 games. Thus, it will be tough to project winning % very accurately.

But the point is that Texas being "ranked" 26th by FPI doesn't tell us much about what we should expect their final W/L record to be. 

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Scooter Monzingo

Scooter Monzingo 821

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21 minutes ago, jinx said:

If only there were some factual, unbiased way to know if a Tom Herman coached Texas team was capable of beating an SEC team on an actual football field.

The world may never know.  /TootsieRollOwl.gif/

One thing for sure, unless they absolutely have to. You will never hear mention of the result of that game during the 2019 season.

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hannibalhorn

hannibalhorn 5

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Quote

Texas is not back

One of the teams expected to generate plenty of preseason buzz is Texas. But not from FPI.

The hype that the Longhorns have finally produced is, in our model's estimation, overstated. Tom Herman's team checks in at No. 26 in our rankings, just missing the cut for our accompanying table (you can find them in the full rankings at the end of this post).

Though Texas took strides last season, it had the benefit of starting 13 seniors and graduate students. Even with a cumulative top-five recruiting rank over the past four seasons, the fact that Texas is returning just eight starters is very likely to be a problem.

As a result, FPI believes Texas is not one of the top 25 teams in college football and will more closely resemble Iowa State or Baylor than Oklahoma in 2019.

FPI is stupid.

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wood

wood 11226

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On 2/14/2019 at 1:46 PM, GotThatFire said:

 Yeah in my opinion they’re doing us a favor. 

 

On 2/14/2019 at 1:50 PM, sushihorn said:

No doubt.  Let LSU read the mountain of praise for their team and their conference for the next 7 months.  Let Sam, BJ Foster and the boys stew in the disrespect for motivation.  Then Herman can give the "Let them know what they signed up for from the opening play" speech and unleash Hell.

... or Bevo XV.

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43454

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On 2/14/2019 at 3:34 PM, Lhorn said:

That’s hilarious. 10 win Texas returning one of the top Qb in the nation, who just punked one of ESPNs SEC golden boy teams in the Sugar bowl is several places worse than a 3 win team.  Their analysis seems spot on!

They also put a dumpster fire USC program that we kicked the shit out of last season and then stole their best recruit just one spot behind us. 

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Nivek

Nivek 16933

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If only there were some factual, unbiased way to know if a Tom Herman coached Texas team was capable of beating an SEC team on an actual football field.
The world may never know.  /TootsieRollOwl.gif/

Beating SEC Teams. Don’t forget mizzou getting the shit kicked out of them too
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DeadArmadillo

DeadArmadillo 907

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I hope that someday, SOMEDAY, ESPN will do at least one tiny little positive thing for the University of Texas and their athletic department. It must be pure hell having the network screw you over like they are. Will ESPN ever put a UT sporting event on TV? Ever say anything positive or cover anything at all on the 40 acres?

I see why you Longhorns are constantly bitching about ESPN. Completely unfair


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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MrPhlegm

MrPhlegm 3413

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Dafuq is FPI? Does that shit count on the field? Other than clemson and bama, we’d skull fuck all those teams.
We'd skullfuck Bama. Then rip their head off and shit down their neck. It's what we do to Bama. Even when they were coached by that giant fradulent rancid syphilitic pussy loser Paul Bear Bryant.
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MrPhlegm

MrPhlegm 3413

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I hope that someday, SOMEDAY, ESPN will do at least one tiny little positive thing for the University of Texas and their athletic department. It must be pure hell having the network screw you over like they are. Will ESPN ever put a UT sporting event on TV? Ever say anything positive or cover anything at all on the 40 acres?

I see why you Longhorns are constantly bitching about ESPN. Completely unfair


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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk?

What, are you stupid? First you are an iPhone npc and second TURN THAT SIGNATURE SHIT OFF ya fucking moron. Aint nobody wanna see that shit. If you dont know how go to an apple store and ask one of the geniuses how to. They all have android phones so they are smart and know what to do.
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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14685

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It's amazing that a team that lost

9 out of their top 11 defensive players in tackles. 

60% of their rushing yards.

64% of their rushing TDs

34% of their passing yards.

46% of their passing TDs

Is somehow ranked 11th in the FPI.

Not too mention Herman is 39-14 while Jimbo is 34-16 in the past 4 years.

 

 

Edited by HtownHorn
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texaslong

texaslong 678

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2 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

It's amazing that a team that lost

9 out of their top 11 defensive players in tackles. 

60% of their rushing yards.

64% of their rushing TDs

34% of their passing yards.

46% of their passing TDs

Is somehow ranked 11th in the FPI.

 

 

They have a ton of freshman that will play this year. They aren’t winning anything.

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