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2018 Beer


HenryJames

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Went to White Rock Alehouse and Brewery here in Dallas today for the first time. Their brunch food options we had were all great. Had to get this year’s installment Alesmith/Pizza Port’s collaboration triple IPA, Logical Choice, which was great. Also had White Rock’s pale ale called Urban Parakeet (which I think sounds like it could have also been generated on that page I linked here the other day). Pretty solid American pale ale. Didn’t try any of their other beers including a “NE style IPA” that didn’t look “NE style” at all to me but I’ll definitely be back there again at some point.

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Crazy how beautiful the modern taproom is. Each one truly speaks to the culture of whichever city its in, but under a really cool communal umbrella of beer. I wonder how some of these breweries expect to recover their investment. You've gotta come right out of the gate with A+ beer because the runway is shooort.

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Crazy how beautiful the modern taproom is. Each one truly speaks to the culture of whichever city its in, but under a really cool communal umbrella of beer. I wonder how some of these breweries expect to recover their investment. You've gotta come right out of the gate with A+ beer because the runway is shooort.


I’d be curious to see some sort of saturation map across the country. I think in the Boise area we have 21 breweries with another 10-11 slated to open. With that we only have a couple of legit breweries. Seems like a lot for a population of about 600,000. But there is still a huge opportunity for some really good beer imo.
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Ill say it: I think the Texas market is saturated with craft beer

 

Already over 320ish (iirc) breweries and brewpubs in the state, with at least another 100 more planned to open by this time next year

 

Im not saying there isnt room for more breweries, but currently, with craft marketshare at what it is, I really think people are going to see effects sometime in the next year or two... especially the bigger breweries/breweries that have already expanded from initial opening size

 

With all the good beer being made out there, both locally and nationally, and the dramatic increase in brands that have come to Texas over the past 2-3 years, I do think there will be some fallout. I agree with BCaps earlier position that beer will be hyper local and more and more smaller places will pop up. However, I dont think Texas is at the point yet where we can support 400-500 breweries and brewpubs. Until then, its gonna be a struggle for a lot of these places to gain/retain marketshare.

 

I know most on here wont agree, but just wanted to throw my opinion out there to start a discussion... if anyone else is so inclined

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55 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Ill say it: I think the Texas market is saturated with craft beer

.....

I know most on here wont agree, but just wanted to throw my opinion out there to start a discussion... if anyone else is so inclined

I don't know what the current supply/demand numbers say, but from a personal anecdotally-speaking POV, it became pretty saturated about ~2 years ago for me in Austin.

Between brewing my own beer, tracking down the latest happenings/distribution of out-of-state unicorns, and watching new local breweries open and flourish between 2005-2015ish, it finally became too much to stay on top of for me.  I'm certainly not at the level of you and BC, but I do consider myself someone who has had a high level interest in beer culture and all that it entails.  However, it reached a point about 2 years ago where I found myself defaulting to some really great local beers that are readily available and that I know and love.  Seeking out the new latest and greatest just fell of my radar, almost overnight it seems.

I don't know if this is the type of saturation you speak of, but personally, I'm now at a place of being okay with staying in my comfortable corner of ABW and H&G with a dose of other local standbys here and there.  A few years ago I would have been counting down the days for a new brewery in the works, and now I'm good if I check out a new place within its first year of operation. 

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1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Ill say it: I think the Texas market is saturated with craft beer

 

Already over 320ish (iirc) breweries and brewpubs in the state, with at least another 100 more planned to open by this time next year

 

Im not saying there isnt room for more breweries, but currently, with craft marketshare at what it is, I really think people are going to see effects sometime in the next year or two... especially the bigger breweries/breweries that have already expanded from initial opening size

 

With all the good beer being made out there, both locally and nationally, and the dramatic increase in brands that have come to Texas over the past 2-3 years, I do think there will be some fallout. I agree with BCaps earlier position that beer will be hyper local and more and more smaller places will pop up. However, I dont think Texas is at the point yet where we can support 400-500 breweries and brewpubs. Until then, its gonna be a struggle for a lot of these places to gain/retain marketshare.

 

I know most on here wont agree, but just wanted to throw my opinion out there to start a discussion... if anyone else is so inclined

10

I'll say it again. Its nowhere near saturation point. Texas has one of the widest gaps of population-to-breweries. There's triple the number of breweries in places like CA, CO, and OR to name a few. What Texas lacks is QUALITY breweries. Also, so many new breweries opening up have this pipe dream of world dominance, and that just isn't going to be the case again until the next post-prohibition. Localized breweries with a small regional reach and decent taprooms are where it's at. A few new breweries will shut down, but probably not the good ones, and most definitely ones who've overextended their reach.

Drink local.

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Like I said, of course there is a gap, but the growth in number of breweries vastly exceeds the amount of craft beer consumed in Texas. Right now, I dont believe there is any way that a 10% marketshare can sustain 400-500 breweries and brewpubs

 

People just arent converting/drinking enough craft beer at this point

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7 minutes ago, Bottlecap said:

I'll say it again. Its nowhere near saturation point. Texas has one of the widest gaps of population-to-breweries. There's triple the number of breweries in places like CA, CO, and OR to name a few. What Texas lacks is QUALITY breweries. Also, so many new breweries opening up have this pipe dream of world dominance, and that just isn't going to be the case again until the next post-prohibition. Localized breweries with a small regional reach and decent taprooms are where it's at. A few new breweries will shut down, but probably not the good ones, and most definitely ones who've overextended their reach.

Drink local.

That sounds similar to what I think Melvin is trying to do.

https://www.brewbound.com/news/melvin-brewing-plans-open-additional-brewpubs-2018

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I'm with Greenspoint.  There's definitely a point of diminishing return per brewery.  Most breweries aren't bringing new beer drinkers with them, rather they're pulling customers that would be spending their money at other local breweries to purchase their goods.  I would agree if the new breweries were coming online in under-served areas, but when they're spinning up within blocks of eachother as we're seeing in major metropolises in Texas, they're really hamstringing the least powerful / crappiest producing breweries.

Beer is not a necessity, so it's hard to put a per capita consumption value on it, and even more difficult to put a supply / demand cost curve together given the range of tastes and styles.

Edited by PvilleStang
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1 hour ago, PvilleStang said:

I'm with Greenspoint.  There's definitely a point of diminishing return per brewery.  Most breweries aren't bringing new beer drinkers with them, rather they're pulling customers that would be spending their money at other local breweries to purchase their goods.  I would agree if the new breweries were coming online in under-served areas, but when they're spinning up within blocks of eachother as we're seeing in major metropolises in Texas, they're really hamstringing the least powerful / crappiest producing breweries.

Beer is not a necessity, so it's hard to put a per capita consumption value on it, and even more difficult to put a supply / demand cost curve together given the range of tastes and styles.

Eating out at a restaurant is not a necessity, and yet we see hundreds of restaurants open in major cities all over the country. GP is somewhat right, the way we think of breweries as being this citywide monolith, or even regional monolith is mostly over.

There will be the Real Ales and the Saint Arnold's who cast a pretty wide net over their states, but mostly, the future of beer is that of a really local, really fresh beer bar. Many will have food of some variety, whether its a kitchen or a truck, but their purpose will ultimately be to serve a very specific region, or be a part of a string of breweries similar to a Brewery Row or whatever you'd wanna call it.

Distribution will become scarcer, it already is. It probably costs 4/5ths of profit to deliver a keg when a brewery could sell the keg onsite for nearly 100% profit. If you want a brewery's beer, you'll need to go to the source. There will be the occasional distribution to places with high volume beer drinkers like Draught House or Craft Pride for marketing purposes, but what will become getting scarcer are those actual beer bars with dozens of taps. Eventually, we will see more people opting for their local brewery with a nice little Philly cheese steak rather than their local beer bar with dozens of out-of-region (read: out of season) beers. In a place like Austin, this works very well, but ever more so in underserved cities like Houston and Dallas and SA (etc.).  

Yes, we will see breweries die who can't keep up with quality foremost, but also those who didn't give themselves enough of a runway to work out their kinks before they opened (or even after their debut), but that has minimally to do with oversaturation and more to do with the fickle nature of craft beer drinkers overall.  

Edited by Bottlecap
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2 hours ago, Bottlecap said:

I'll say it again. Its nowhere near saturation point. Texas has one of the widest gaps of population-to-breweries. There's triple the number of breweries in places like CA, CO, and OR to name a few. What Texas lacks is QUALITY breweries. Also, so many new breweries opening up have this pipe dream of world dominance, and that just isn't going to be the case again until the next post-prohibition. Localized breweries with a small regional reach and decent taprooms are where it's at. A few new breweries will shut down, but probably not the good ones, and most definitely ones who've overextended their reach.

Drink local.

I think a lot of those cities with triple the number of breweries by population-to-breweries compared to Austin also have a much great population density surrounding those breweries.  I feel like the ease of public transportation obviously plays a big role as well.

Austin isn't that difficult to get around, but the closer the breweries are to me and the closer they are to each other, the more likely I am to visit them with frequency.  I've been to Zilker and Lazarus more than I have Live Oak's new location, not because I think they're higher quality than LO, but because they're close to my house, close to each other, and close to other places I frequent.

Assuming breweries in and around Austin grow in pockets, like they have with Burnet/Metric, East of downtown, and even out on Fitzhugh, then I do think Austin has some continued room to grow.  And I do agree with you that first and foremost, a brewery better produce quality beer.  However, with trips to the breweries being such a communal thing that people often do in groups, making it easy and fun for people to plan trips and bounce around from place to place is almost as important, if not more so, than the quality of the brewery for a lot of folks, IMO.

Edited by Horn21
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1 hour ago, Bottlecap said:

There will be the Real Ales and the Saint Arnold's who cast a pretty wide net over their states, but mostly, the future of beer is that of a really local, really fresh beer bar. Many will have food of some variety, whether its a kitchen or a truck, but their purpose will ultimately be to serve a very specific region, or be a part of a string of breweries similar to a Brewery Row or whatever you'd wanna call it.

I didn't see this before my previous reply.

I agree with you 100% on this.

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1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

This place is quickly becoming one of my favorite Houston area breweries.

https://www.ingeniousbeer.com/

This one is actually pretty close to me.....haven't been to the actual location, but I have had a couple of their IPA's at Craft Beer Cellar in downtown Houston - Obvious Equation and Yesterday's News - both New England IPA's

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14 hours ago, PencilPusher said:

This one is actually pretty close to me.....haven't been to the actual location, but I have had a couple of their IPA's at Craft Beer Cellar in downtown Houston - Obvious Equation and Yesterday's News - both New England IPA's

They make some great milkshake IPAs and stouts as well, and they are supposed to have a Berliner out this summer.  Like B-52 up in Conroe, they are pretty creative in their use of adjuncts.  

Edited by Fozzz
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Hey did that work? probably not. anyway, Live Oak Pilz is $8/pint, Achor Steam is $8/pint, Pinthouse's Man O War is $8 pint, Black Butte Porter Nitro is $5/6oz pour, 3.9% ABV Oddwood Life Skills Saison is $12/12oz pour, and so on. There's like 30 taps with this pricing trend. You get the idea.

Edited by Bottlecap
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On 4/16/2018 at 1:26 PM, Bottlecap said:

I'll say it again. Its nowhere near saturation point. Texas has one of the widest gaps of population-to-breweries. There's triple the number of breweries in places like CA, CO, and OR to name a few. What Texas lacks is QUALITY breweries. Also, so many new breweries opening up have this pipe dream of world dominance, and that just isn't going to be the case again until the next post-prohibition. Localized breweries with a small regional reach and decent taprooms are where it's at. A few new breweries will shut down, but probably not the good ones, and most definitely ones who've overextended their reach.

Drink local.

agree with you but GP has some truth, too.   The growth to craft beer has to come from the Bud Light crowd.

I'm not a beer hound, although I pretty much only drink Houston brewed beers, some I love and some I just drink to try them and support local efforts.  But to your comment that Texas lacks Quality breweries, what do you think we are lacking (types of beers, I guess I'm asking).  

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2 hours ago, Bottlecap said:

Well its a very expensive taplist. you should really take a look at it and be as disgusted as I am.

(look, this website is wonky. i can't post the pics from a 3rd party site. it don't make no sense.)

 

 

I'm gonna go ahead and assume it's a bunch of IPAs, DIPAs, and hazy IPAs.  Perhaps even a trio of NEIPAs...

 

 

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