2022 Midterms Mega Thread

[Ghost of LL 15660]

It's never too early, right?  The Senate races look mildly interesting--Richard Burr (R-NC) and Rob Johnson (R-WI) are retiring, so that will be open seats that the Dems will be very interested in picking up.  And Rubio (R-FL) and Toomey (R-PA) are up and look like they may be vulnerable.  But Senate incumbents generally don't lose in midterms in which their party is out of power.

Incumbent senators of the out-of-power party don't lose because the midterms generally turn into a referendum on the president and the president's party.  The party out-of-power can do whatever works for each district; it doesn't have to have a national agenda or message beyond "that guy sucks."  It's a good political position to be in.

Which brings me to the big question--what happens in 2022 when you have a Republican Party that has become so personalized around Donald Trump?  Yeah, Republicans can run against "President Beto sucks."  But Democrats are going to be able to run on the platform that "Donald Trump's worse."  

And don't tell me that Trump's going to be gone.  He won't be.  His twitter machine will see to that.  And you know that if he doesn't win reelection in 2020, he'll be the Republican nominee in 2024.  So he'll remain very relevant to Democratic (and other) voters in the 2022 midterms.

That's going to be a fun one.

[Post Oak 20529]

 

[Js1 86756]

Don't sleep on Iowa - Grassley is 85 and would be pushing 90 in a 2022 race.

Also the winner of the 2020 special Senate race in Arizona is up again in 2022. 

[Anastasis 23687]

22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And you know that if he doesn't win reelection in 2020, he'll be the Republican nominee in 2024

Surly you jest. 

[zork 629]

2022?!? That is lot of Easters to get through for Trump.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19545]

I don't think Trump would be the nominee in 2024, but I do think he will be the king maker. (If he's not in prison, or exiled to Russia)

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Bold assumption that we will have free and fair elections by 2022. 

[Coors yellow belly 105]

Real shame there is no 2020 midterm thread

[Anastasis 23687]

1 minute ago, Coors yellow belly said:

Real shame there is no 2020 midterm thread

Notsureifserious.gif

[Ghost of LL 15660]

31 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I don't think Trump would be the nominee in 2024, but I do think he will be the king maker. (If he's not in prison, or exiled to Russia)

1) It's the Party of Trump; it has no platform beyond complete and total fealty to Trump.

2) As a result of (1), the nomination is Trump's if he wants it.

3) His narcissism won't allow him not to want it.

I know we've all heard the Cohen testimony and other evidence that Trump didn't want to win in 2016.  And I think that's true.  But what evidence do you see that he wouldn't run for the nomination in 2024 (irrespective of his eligibility)?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But what evidence do you see that he wouldn't run for the nomination in 2024 (irrespective of his eligibility)?

Pretty sure Trump has a price not to run and also pretty sure someone would be willing to pay it. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

1) It's the Party of Trump; it has no platform beyond complete and total fealty to Trump.

2) As a result of (1), the nomination is Trump's if he wants it.

3) His narcissism won't allow him not to want it.

I know we've all heard the Cohen testimony and other evidence that Trump didn't want to win in 2016.  And I think that's true.  But what evidence do you see that he wouldn't run for the nomination in 2024 (irrespective of his eligibility)?

I think if Trump loses, he'll immediately be Nickleback.  Somehow he won, but no one will admit they voted for him.  I think that'll undermine his influence.

[David Dennison 19409]