Ethiopian Airlines 737 Max crashes killing 157

[C-Man 27913]

Quote

New York (CNN Business)Boeing's stock fell Monday following a report that the company was considering curbing production of the troubled 737 Max.

Sources told CNN that a decision about the future of the 737 Max could be announced Monday after the US markets close. The company could either suspend or further curb production, they added.

Boeing (BA) CEO Dennis Muilenburg warned in July that the company would be forced to curtail or halt 737 Max production if the FAA delayed approval beyond the fourth quarter for the plane's software fixes.

The 737 Max was grounded worldwide in March after two fatal crashes — a Lion Air jet into the Java Sea in October 2018 and an Ethiopian Airlines plane near Addis Ababa in March — killed 346 people. Boeing believes a software fix can make the plane safer to fly.

 

 

That delay became apparent after a meeting last week between the Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing, in which Boeing came away with an understanding that the 737 Max jet would not be cleared to fly this year.

Boeing's stock gains this year are now around just 3%. The aircraft maker's stock was up around 15% in 2019 as recently as three weeks ago. Investors have lost patience with the company, and a few analysts have slashed their price targets on the stock.

No one suggests that the company is facing any threat to its survival. Boeing's balance sheet is still strong, and even critics acknowledge that it will be flush with cash once it can start delivering the hundreds of 737 Max jets it has continued to build since March.

"This too will pass. But a lot of investors will have lost patience with them by then," Ronald Epstein, aerospace analyst with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, previously told CNN Business. "A lot had to do with the overpromising and underdelivering when things were going to happen."

-- CNN's Rene Marsh and Chris Isidore contributed to this report.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-stock-737-max-curb-production/index.html

[Your Mom 4986]

Curbing, not to be confused with permanently halting. The main issue with continuing production right now is that they are running out of places to park them.   The 400ish they had already delivered are occupying all the usual parking spots in the desert and the 300 they’ve made since the grounding are scattered at various airports around Seattle and a few other places. Without making deliveries they are running out of parking spots. 

[Wally Fairway 5682]

On 12/11/2019 at 1:35 PM, Telegraph_it said:

My flight to Vegas in March says it is a 737 Max 9. Looks like I'll be gambling before I even arrive.

Sounds like a good proposition bet if you are really flying on a 737 Max - I'd say the odds are about 3:1,000,000 against you being on anything Max in March 2020

[Your Mom 4986]

Safe bet. March isn’t going to happen. You can probably tack about 3 months on beyond the eventual certification date before the airlines get them operating. And that’s being optimistic. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

15 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Safe bet. March isn’t going to happen. You can probably tack about 3 months on beyond the eventual certification date before the airlines get them operating. And that’s being optimistic. 

This thing just gets worse and worse.  Hopefully this becomes a text book case study for how not too reverse engineer a physical defect in something so complex, and then try to fix it with a computer program band aid..

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, Your Mom said:

Curbing, not to be confused with permanently halting. The main issue with continuing production right now is that they are running out of places to park them.   The 400ish they had already delivered are occupying all the usual parking spots in the desert and the 300 they’ve made since the grounding are scattered at various airports around Seattle and a few other places. Without making deliveries they are running out of parking spots. 

Well, the other issue is the logistics train behind them. A marked reduction or even temporary halt will probably have some effects for subcontractors that drags things out even further. 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Bobby_Batronic

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

Boeing decides to halt production in January. 400ish Max’s are built and waiting to be delivered.

[Wally Fairway 5682]

26 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Boeing decides to halt production in January. 400ish Max’s are built and waiting to be delivered.

From what I've seen the starting price of a 737 max is around $75 million, average cost is likely around $100 million (and that's a nice even number).

So that makes it around $40,000,000,000 (that's $40 Billion) in sales (say $30+ billion in costs) sitting on the ground. Financial decisions pushed BA to "updating" the 737 and not having to certify a new airframe, I have to believe that although they acknowledge that there is still an immense amount of pressure to get the grounded planes back in the air so they can sell the new planes lined up behind them. 

[Brisketexan 107134]

This is going to be one helluva case study in business schools in years to come.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

From what I've seen the starting price of a 737 max is around $75 million, average cost is likely around $100 million (and that's a nice even number).

So that makes it around $40,000,000,000 (that's $40 Billion) in sales (say $30+ billion in costs) sitting on the ground. Financial decisions pushed BA to "updating" the 737 and not having to certify a new airframe, I have to believe that although they acknowledge that there is still an immense amount of pressure to get the grounded planes back in the air so they can sell the new planes lined up behind them. 

There’s no doubt in my mind that they’re still going to build and sell 5000+ Max’s. But this is going o drag the return to airline service out quite a bit farther. Restarting the logistics train for their subs will probably prove to be troublesome.

Boeing should have gone ahead and built a 757 replacement. Airbus has a scaleable airframe in the 321 that they can stretch, re-wing, up motor and design new landing gear for. And they’ll have it market ready pretty darn soon though it’ll never be the field performer that the 757 is. 

[DaysOff 8263]

I'd be surprised if the grounding slipped past the end of April or early May. If it goes through the summer flying season that's on the Feds imo. The fucking thing is fixed. It's passed sim and flight tests, and is no the most scrutinized (and best selling) plane of all time. Get on with it polyester tie wearing faa dipshits.

[RPM 26702]

Do you think there will be any consumer resistance to flying a Max once they are certified? If Flight "A" is a Max and Flight "B" isn't, I'm taking "B".

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

7 minutes ago, RPM said:

Do you think there will be any consumer resistance to flying a Max once they are certified? If Flight "A" is a Max and Flight "B" isn't, I'm taking "B".

Yeah, there will definitely be some pushback there. Apparently with FA’s as well. 

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

12 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

I'd be surprised if the grounding slipped past the end of April or early May. If it goes through the summer flying season that's on the Feds imo. The fucking thing is fixed. It's passed sim and flight tests, and is no the most scrutinized (and best selling) plane of all time. Get on with it polyester tie wearing faa dipshits.

Yeah, I think that’s likely. But then there’s the actual time frame to get the thing on the line and production restarted. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it not actually flying in customer service until Q3 or Q4. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

54 minutes ago, RPM said:

Do you think there will be any consumer resistance to flying a Max once they are certified? If Flight "A" is a Max and Flight "B" isn't, I'm taking "B".

Yeah, right here....

[Armybrat 41576]

It don’t make a shit to me.

 

[DaysOff 8263]

There's a 24 hour news cycle and social media aspect to this story. At least I think so. In the early 90s the 300 series 737 had two crashes due to rudder hardovers. A rudder pressure reducer was installed eventually; the fleet was never grounded. The DC-10 had all sorts of issues. People didn't book away from the airplane. That won't be the case this time.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_rudder_issues

[4th&Five 42081]

 

[Blotto 24092]

Bumping this thread as it seems to be where most general Boeing commentary related to the 737 Max has taken place previously.

The timing of this announcement is interesting. Dropping this little announcement of shitcanning the CEO on a week when half the market traders are probably on vacation reminds me of Mt Vernon announcing the hire of Briles on a Friday evening at 6PM.

Almost seems like they have more bad news coming, and by firing the CEO and hiring a new guy, they can absorb the hit better by blaming past management. while assuring everyone the new guy will get this shit fixed, pronto. The stock traded up on the news, but I'd be nervous if I was holding BA stock now with no approval date, production halts, and presumably increasing liabilities to their airline partners. Consider this headline from last May....

Boeing says its software fix for the 737 MAX is ready, awaits FAA approval

May 16, 2019 at 1:27 pm | Updated May 17, 2019 at 10:05 am

[Johnny Sack 8397]

I flew in a 777 last week from LAX to IAH.  That is a great plane.

[RPM 26702]

2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Almost seems like they have more bad news coming, and by firing the CEO and hiring a new guy, they can absorb the hit better by blaming past management.

The failed spacecraft test didn't help.

[Pasken 1312]

4 hours ago, RPM said:

The failed spacecraft test didn't help.

It wasn’t that much of a failure by space standards. It didn’t explode right crash. It just couldn’t get in the same orbit as the station. Not a terrible place to be.

[HenryJames 67655]

 

[Armybrat 41576]

He should donate all of that golden parachute to the victims’ families.

[Homercles 10206]

54 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

C-suite compensation is out of control.  

[Brisketexan 107134]

He should donate all of that golden parachute to the victims’ families.

I bet they’d rather have had a real parachute....

[InkaUtexas 27110]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I bet they’d rather have had a real parachute....

except they don't work that well when the plane slams you into the ground. 

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

He should donate all of that golden parachute to the victims’ families.

Hahaha

[Armybrat 41576]

Hmmm. Maybe I should rephrase that.

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Hmmm. Maybe I should rephrase that.

Yeah. How ‘bout he should have been fired for gross negligence with NO golden parachute, indicted on many counts of manslaughter, and Boeing should be made to pay a small fortune to each victim’s family.

[Armybrat 41576]

Well of course.

[Your Mom 4986]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Yeah. How ‘bout he should have been fired for gross negligence with NO golden parachute, indicted on many counts of manslaughter, and Boeing should be made to pay a small fortune to each victim’s family.

I read a few weeks ago they've settled more than half of the lawsuits related to the crashes so far.  The also came to terms with Southwest Airlines with a confidential amount that's known to be at least in the hundreds of millions.  

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, Your Mom said:

I read a few weeks ago they've settled more than half of the lawsuits related to the crashes so far.  The also came to terms with Southwest Airlines with a confidential amount that's known to be at least in the hundreds of millions.  

It’s enough that WN is made whole while sharing $125M in lost income  with their employees. Southwest is down what? 12-15% of their projected fleet size between the MAX’s and 700’s sold to United?

[Your Mom 4986]

I doubt the company was made whole.  Nobody even knows what the total losses will end up being in the end with no end in sight to the grounding.  I suspect a large part of the settlement is big discounts on future planes.  That $125M to the employees is really just to make up for decreased profit sharing.  It does nothing to make up for lost wages due to decreased flying the last year.  But that's a whole 'nother can o' worms.

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

It’s enough that WN is made whole while sharing $125M in lost income  with their employees. Southwest is down what? 12-15% of their projected fleet size between the MAX’s and 700’s sold to United?

Who is WN?

[RPM 26702]

7 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Who is WN?

WN. IATA code for Southwest Airlines

Why?

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by RPM

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

47 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

I doubt the company was made whole.  Nobody even knows what the total losses will end up being in the end with no end in sight to the grounding.  I suspect a large part of the settlement is big discounts on future planes.  That $125M to the employees is really just to make up for decreased profit sharing.  It does nothing to make up for lost wages due to decreased flying the last year.  But that's a whole 'nother can o' worms.

Made whole enough to satisfy the C suite. 

[Pasken 1312]

6 hours ago, XYZ said:

Who is WN?

Southwest Airlines 

[Wally Fairway 5682]

Sounds like Boeing is going to require simulator time before pilots get back into their seats on 737 Max aircraft

Quote

From its inception, Boeing’s 737 Max was designed to save airlines the expense of training their pilots on flight simulators. During the initial approval of the plane and after two crashes killed 346 people last year, Boeing argued in conversations with the Federal Aviation Administration that simulator training was not necessary.

Now, after a worldwide grounding has cost the company billions of dollars over nearly 10 months and caused it to temporarily halt the production of the Max, Boeing has reversed course. On Tuesday, the company said it would recommend that pilots train in flight simulators before flying the Max.

The decision stems from Boeing’s analysis of recent flight simulator tests that were part of the work necessary to return the Max to service, which showed that pilots were not using the right procedures to handle emergencies. Those tests are the latest hurdle for Boeing, which has encountered setback after setback as it tries to fix problems with the Max and persuade regulators that the plane is ready to fly.

The final paragraph is interesting
 

Quote

There are currently 34 certified Max flight simulators worldwide, according to a person familiar with the matter. Airlines may also be able to use the more than 200 737 NG simulators to conduct the training, though it isn’t clear yet whether that is possible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/business/boeing-737-max-simulator-training.html

Edited January 7, 2020 by Wally Fairway

[XYZ 2154]

FAA: you probably need flight simulator time for the new Max

Boeing: nah, we’re good

FAA: OK

(Bunch of people die)

Boeing: we probably need flight simulator time

[Continental Op 3934]

Is this bad? This seems bad?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/business/boeing-737-messages.html

Among the most damaging messages included conversations among Boeing employees about software issues and other problems with flight simulators for the Max. The employees appear to discuss instances in which the company concealed such problems from the F.A.A. during the regulator’s certification of the simulators.

“I still haven’t been forgiven by God for the covering up I did last year,” one of the employees says in messages from 2018, apparently in reference to interactions with the regulator.

“Would you put your family on a Max simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t,” one employee said to a colleague in another exchange. “No,” the colleague responded.

[XYZ 2154]

And nobody will go to prison.

[elfenix 34840]

This seems bad:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/01/boeing-internal-employee-messages-737-max-clowns-congress.html

Quote

Boeing Hands Over Internal Employee Messages Describing 737 Max as “Designed by Clowns”

Edited January 10, 2020 by elfenix

[Armybrat 41576]

11 hours ago, XYZ said:

And nobody will go to prison.

If that murderer Blue Bell aggy CEO isn’t going to prison, neither will any Boeing executives.

[C-Man 27913]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

If that murderer Blue Bell aggy CEO isn’t going to prison, neither will any Boeing executives.

Boeing's apparent fuck-ups resulted in a far greater number of deaths than Blue Bell's but point taken.

[Jive Turkey 13048]

got paid, don't care.

 

[Dahobbs 18485]

20 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Is this bad? This seems bad?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/business/boeing-737-messages.html

 

 

What is amazing to me is that this is Boeing's commentary with the release:

"We regret the content of these communications, and apologize to the [Federal Aviation Administration], Congress, our airline customers, and to the flying public for them"

The fucking contents of the communications are what you're sorry for? Are you fucking kidding me? How tone deaf can you be? 

Boeing: I'm sorry our employees said that our plane was a death trap and would kill people

Me: You mean you're sorry that you built a death trap that killed people, right?

Boeing: No, we're sorry our employees acknowledged it in writing with each other and that you found out. 

Edited January 10, 2020 by Dahobbs

[DaysOff 8263]

Still the smoothest airplane I've ever flown.

[Nivek 17483]

1 hour ago, Jive Turkey said:

got paid, don't care.

 

Where do I send my resume?

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Jive Turkey said:

got paid, don't care.

That’s what literally all of the people involved in the subprime mortgage fiasco said, and they were right. They got paid and they didn’t get punished. Nor will the Boeing people.