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Beto 2020


bad_teammate

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  On 4/17/2019 at 11:14 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

Pete was a nobody 6 weeks ago. I think his campaign strategy has been working out just fine so far. And you know he'll adapt as necessary.  He's been all over Iowa the last couple of days. 

Both he and Beto are working their asses off. 

 

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Pete's strategy makes sense given where he was when he started and Beto's strategy also makes sense to me given where he was when he started.  I think Beto was right to go heavy on retail politics (definitely a strength of his) and especially build up money while straddling the line between grassroots appeal and also convincing bundlers and the power base of money that he's actually got substance and toughness.  I think Pete needed to get name recognition and get himself into a higher tier to be viable for long-term fundraising.  I think they have different short-term objectives for now, and I don't think either is doing the wrong thing very much.  

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I posted about Bond earlier in the thread.

The article kind of hints that Bond left because of Beto's move to the center after his 2018 Senate campaign.

I thought that maybe she was being hired away by Biden, but I really don't see that. That would be strange.

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  On 4/20/2019 at 9:40 PM, bad_teammate said:

I posted about Bond earlier in the thread.

The article kind of hints that Bond left because of Beto's move to the center after his 2018 Senate campaign.

I thought that maybe she was being hired away by Biden, but I really don't see that. That would be strange.

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Robert O'Rourke, a Centrist White Guy?  Are you sure?  I've been told by expert Democrats that Beto is a Hispanic Liberal.  

A White Centrist has a really good chance of winning the general election, btw. 

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  On 4/21/2019 at 10:46 AM, horncyclist said:

Could she have left because she wanted to be campaign manager and didn't get it?
 

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Something similar happened with bernie's staff earlier in this cycle. some of the media people and staff he had worked with in 2016 left the 2020 campaign after Bernie hired young and diverse blood co-chairs.

Different visions for how things should go is a normal and healthy way for this stuff to happen. I doubt Beto's campaign is in disarray or anything; these campaigns are big, complex, and difficult machines that drain the lives out of everyone involved. If you're not 100% on board with the vision then it's best to leave even if there aren't hard feelings.

Could really be as simple as the new campaign chair wanting to run things more traditionally, which is just not how Bond works. It might even be good for Beto's campaign, which hasn't been catching on as much as many expected (me included).

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  On 4/23/2019 at 7:44 PM, bad_teammate said:

New campaign manager. new Beto!

 

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We can debate the appropriateness of these  sorts of fundraisers. It'd be nice if everyone could reject them. But didn't Beto do this in his Senate campaign too? I think troph hosted one for godsakes. And to my knowledge, he hasn't sworn them off in his run for president.

More likely than not, the democratic nominee will do a bunch of these. 

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If I ever get financing to make my all-male political version of Coyote Ugly where men dance on top of bars and talk politics, Beto gets above the title billing.  

Edited by Lobo
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If I was Beto's campaign manager I might artifically age.

"Will you please go on television? PLEASE!?"

- "No, I'm going to fly under the radar and basically run a stealth campaign."

Seriously, this guy could be filling all of these places to the top. GO ON TV, BETO! GO ON TV! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD THE MEDIA IS DYING TO GIVE YOU FREE ADVERTISING!

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  On 4/26/2019 at 7:21 PM, bad_teammate said:

If I was Beto's campaign manager I might artifically age.

"Will you please go on television? PLEASE!?"

- "No, I'm going to fly under the radar and basically run a stealth campaign."

Seriously, this guy could be filling all of these places to the top. GO ON TV, BETO! GO ON TV! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD THE MEDIA IS DYING TO GIVE YOU FREE ADVERTISING!

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35 people showed

He’s toast, but will spends millions to lose none the less. Time to step back and start trying to kiss the right ass to get a VP chance. 

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  On 4/17/2019 at 3:12 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

I find it hard to criticize Beto for his monetary charitable donations when he's worked his ass off the last two years engaging voters all over the state and now across the country.  He has his flaws, but his heart is in the right place.   

Not speaking to anyone specifically on here, but Ds need to lighten the fuck up. 

 

 

 

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yeah agree here. Beto is not my #1, but he does a lot of humanitarian work, particularly bringing attention to the plight of desperate abused immigrants. 

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  On 4/26/2019 at 7:21 PM, bad_teammate said:

If I was Beto's campaign manager I might artifically age.

"Will you please go on television? PLEASE!?"

- "No, I'm going to fly under the radar and basically run a stealth campaign."

Seriously, this guy could be filling all of these places to the top. GO ON TV, BETO! GO ON TV! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD THE MEDIA IS DYING TO GIVE YOU FREE ADVERTISING!

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that pic is very disheartening as Beto is a really nice guy and deserves bettter but he never developed a vision, was very good at identifying some problems but had no details.  So that's on him, kind of shows some laziness in that.   Looks like the room is at least 1/3 media and only about 20 students. 

He's raised millions, so where will the money go after he drops out? 

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I don't think he's been killing it as of late but that UNLV thing is not a death knell.  The generous interpretation of his strategy as of late is probably something like flying low to hash out his policy stuff and let Pete and then Joe take some of the flak.  Or something.  There's a long time.  I'm not sure if I believe that they have their shit together, but we'll see.  Biden outraised him in his first 24 hours, which is a negative for him but also would seem to hammer home the point that Twitter is not representative.

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Oh no, I said what I meant.  Watching the GOP roll back what they said about him is comical.  But as with most things in life, the truth does actually lie somewhere in the middle.  

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Predictit is dumb. Andrew Yang is #5, which is an absolute joke.

Beto is stronger than his polling shows. He's playing a different game right now. Retail politics work and he knows it. He's got the time (no job) and he's got the energy to press flesh and slowly win hearts and minds in the early primary states. If he shows well in those states he's got the charisma to media blitz future states. National polling is a useful metric, but it's not everything, not even close.

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  On 4/29/2019 at 1:35 AM, bad_teammate said:

Predictit is dumb. Andrew Yang is #5, which is an absolute joke.

Beto is stronger than his polling shows. He's playing a different game right now. Retail politics work and he knows it. He's got the time (no job) and he's got the energy to press flesh and slowly win hearts and minds in the early primary states. If he shows well in those states he's got the charisma to media blitz future states. National polling is a useful metric, but it's not everything, not even close.

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I completely agree. The only thing I might change is to add some media appearances in order to drive people to his local events. You have to have some star power to get people in large numbers.

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Yeah if he can do well in Iowa, NH and SC (those are still the first three?) and he’s got the ground game for super tues then maybe. He still needs more press and I’m not convinced he’s doing well in those states but I’ve been preoccupied with other crap the last few weeks.

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Whether playing up to and courting the traditional political media is a winning strategy is yet to be determined.

But what is obvious is that not bowing to their altar is pissing them off thus resulting in that media pushing the “Beto is an empty suit and not up to being questioned by US - the oh so important political media -so therefore his candidacy is floundering! So say us - the self important political media mob who devoted unwarranted airtime and column inches to Donald Trump.”

Beto is granting multiple interviews to local reporters in every city and town he visits. He was in LA and San Francisco today and has crowds lined up for blocks. After hearing him speak, loads of regular people are speaking out on twitter and other social media and local press about how impressive he was and how he’s inspired them to get involved.

He feels like he got burned by “Vanity Fair” and the NYT and has been painted as entitled and and vacuous.

He’s been getting snarked on by the pundits on CNN and MSNBC since he announced. Fox News has been calling him a fake Hispanic, drunk driving cross dresser who wants to murder babies.

He’s going straight to the voters and bypassing the middleman.

And the middlemen don’t like that.

He was actually on Sharpton’s show on MSNBC today and The Axe Files a couple of weeks ago but those aren’t your typical DC media “kingmakers”.

Just this week he hired a shitton of staff in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Including a Muslim woman in a significant role in Iowa and a black woman to run his entire SC campaign.

No headlines about that. But Mayor Pete speaks Klingon - stop the presses.

The first votes won’t be cast for almost 18 months. Let all the others suck up all the oxygen and overexpose themselves. All the while Beto can concentrate on building actual networks and ground games in the early states and meet with people who actually caucus and vote instead of Chuck Todd and Mika & Joe.

Here’s the crowd today.



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Too bad he’s not getting the media onboard. All those regular people can do is vote.

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Yeah, the media writing him off has been a little bizarre. One article I saw talked about how the number of events organized across the US for him dropped from 1000 for his watch party to 300 for the first blockwalk. 300 events organized in people's homes and communities by real people, real voters, nine months before any primary, asking people to go out and engage directly with other people for a candidate is still a big deal. He's also finetuning his message and will be better prepared for televised town halls when he starts. TV wasn't his best medium in the Senate race, so it's probably good he's taking his time. He's still clearly in the top tier of candidates and has a shot depending no how things shake out. 

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  On 4/29/2019 at 11:03 AM, horncyclist said:

Yeah, the media writing him off has been a little bizarre. 

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No, it's not.

The media loves a good story when it comes to presidential primaries.  Stories sell eyeballs.  Eyeballs = $$$$$$$$$$$

Right now, Mayor Pete is the "story."  The underdog making waves.  They are eating this shit up at the expense of Beto.

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  On 4/29/2019 at 12:58 PM, Js1 said:

Right now, Mayor Pete is the "story."

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By design, yes.

Pete-mania isn't some organic thing. It is a 100% manufactured and planned phenomenon. He's smart. He's a McKinsey robot who has been planning this for years and all of these glowing profiles had been under preparation since before Pete even announced his candidacy in January.

I said before that a Pete/Beto clash was going to be inevitable and I still think that. I think Beto is coming across far more like a relatable human being and that difference will grow more and more obvious.

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Well his ground game may end up being one of the best... and there is plenty of time for Beto to get some airtime. So long as he’s top five 5 six months out and grabs some of the media spotlight in the immediate run up to the primaries then he’ll probably be fine.

 

Sanders and Warren go to far for me but I do like Senator Warren. Mayor Pete and Beto work for me. I think Biden is too beholden to the big money PAC types and he’s too much of a status quo guy. Not sure what to make of Harris her trans-blunder was pretty shocking and tone deaf as all get out. Plus she wasn’t that great about it in her time as a DA but then no one was even just a few years ago.

 

So I’m still Beto just not off the charts like I started. Pete and Warren next. And I’ll vote for the rest of them if they win the nom.

 

 

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Cross posted from the general 2020 thread.

Emerson poll of Texas Democratic primary voters -

23ccd23c714d71436795080ee7fdca3a.jpg

Fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates from Texas donors -



The above graph is from Emerson.

These results are from Change Research.

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Full numbers (screenshot cut off Inslee and Ryan but they’re both at 0%)

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We all know Emerson has had issues and I don’t know how accurate Change Research has been in the past.

But my takeaway is the reports of Beto’s demise seem to be premature.
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Beto jumps on the Policy Train with a $5T, 4-pillar Climate Change plan.

Relevant spending portion:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • More than $1 trillion through limited-duration, performance-focused climate change tax incentives that accelerate the scale up of nascent technologies enabling reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, through efficiency and alternatives; and
  • More than $3 trillion through proven existing financing institutions, like the Rural Utility Service, and a new dedicated finance authority, which will have on its board not only the brightest minds in finance but also members of the unions that would help build this infrastructure.
  • More than $1.2 trillion through grants and other similar investments in our people and communities, including:
    • Housing grants that help close the gap of affordable housing in America in a way that promotes improvements in both sustainability and quality of life;
    • Transportation grants that cut commutes, crashes, and carbon pollution — all while reducing the costs paid by people and communities and boosting access to public transit;
    • Public health grants that both address the immediate crises of communities facing unacceptably poor air or water quality and the long-term crisis of climate change;
    • Small business and start-up grants that boost the diversity of the leaders whose businesses form the supply chain for climate change solutions;
    • National service grants to mobilize a new AmeriCorps generation to deploy clean energy, plant trees on marginal lands, and build more resilience to fires, floods, droughts, and hurricanes;
    • Paid-training grants through partnership with unions, community colleges, and employers that deliver the skills to earn a job in this growing economy;
    • Farming and ranching grants to create a new revenue stream for the climate benefits secured through practices like better soil management and deployment of digesters; and
    • Economic diversification and development grants for communities that have been and are being impacted by changes in energy and the economy

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first $4T seems basically to be a corporate giveaway, which is almost undoubtedly how the right/center-right is going to try and "solve" this problem. Alas.

Edited by bad_teammate
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  On 4/29/2019 at 3:27 PM, bad_teammate said:

Beto jumps on the Policy Train with a $5T, 4-pillar Climate Change plan.

Relevant spending portion:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • More than $1 trillion through limited-duration, performance-focused climate change tax incentives that accelerate the scale up of nascent technologies enabling reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, through efficiency and alternatives; and
  • More than $3 trillion through proven existing financing institutions, like the Rural Utility Service, and a new dedicated finance authority, which will have on its board not only the brightest minds in finance but also members of the unions that would help build this infrastructure.
  • More than $1.2 trillion through grants and other similar investments in our people and communities, including:
    • Housing grants that help close the gap of affordable housing in America in a way that promotes improvements in both sustainability and quality of life;
    • Transportation grants that cut commutes, crashes, and carbon pollution — all while reducing the costs paid by people and communities and boosting access to public transit;
    • Public health grants that both address the immediate crises of communities facing unacceptably poor air or water quality and the long-term crisis of climate change;
    • Small business and start-up grants that boost the diversity of the leaders whose businesses form the supply chain for climate change solutions;
    • National service grants to mobilize a new AmeriCorps generation to deploy clean energy, plant trees on marginal lands, and build more resilience to fires, floods, droughts, and hurricanes;
    • Paid-training grants through partnership with unions, community colleges, and employers that deliver the skills to earn a job in this growing economy;
    • Farming and ranching grants to create a new revenue stream for the climate benefits secured through practices like better soil management and deployment of digesters; and
    • Economic diversification and development grants for communities that have been and are being impacted by changes in energy and the economy

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first $4T seems basically to be a corporate giveaway, which is almost undoubtedly how the right/center-right is going to try and "solve" this problem. Alas.

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Bottom line, if you want more wind and solar, with natural gas prices (used for electric generation) being what they are, you're going to have to subsidize them.

We've subsidized other things in the public interest before.  Lots of times.  Just because someone in a suit makes some money doesn't mean it's a bad idea.  AND, if the subsidies also have some requirements as to employment of workers, wages, etc., they can spread the benefits beyond just the suits.  I'm speaking in broad generalities, but then again, so are you.

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