Beto 2020

[troph 25,094]

Why not go with someone who will do it of their own volition and doesn't need to be pushed into it? Why go with someone that you already know isn't going to fight on his own?

Beto can't even stand up for single-payer because of the pressure from private insurance, do you honestly and truly believe he's going to fight for the Green New Deal?

Because I don’t think Bernie or Warren win. It’s that simple. I also don’t want all of Bernie’s policies.

And there never is such a thing as all else being equal and in this case Beto puts Texas in serious contention for the general. Game, set, match for Dems and that means Trump will be here often with major dollars spent on ad buys which means less for the Midwest, Florida and mid-Atlantic states.

Beto imo gives the Dems the surest path to victory and this time I’m not taking anything for granted. Trump is a lunatic but he’s got brilliant campaign chops. Beto beats him - on GOTV, mass appeal, money, and strategic importance of Texas, and I don’t know if anyone else holds the same number of cards as Beto.

[David Dennison 19,441]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The media can concern troll too.  It’s not going to matter because the media isn’t exactly as influential as it once was thanks to the 2016 disaster.  

People are going to judge these candidates based on how they speak to them.  They’re not going to be dissuaded as much by critical press and pundits.  That bullshit is another reason Hillary lost and people are wiser now. 

The media will still try tho..

If the past few days are any indication, Beto has a lot of work do.

[troph 25,094]

There is zero chance our current insurance-based system could be replaced by single payer in broad sweeping legislation. Zero. Look at the Clinton 90s effort and how Obamacare has gone. It doesnt matter if 70% support it on paper. Once the Koch Bros label it socialism, Berniecare, or whatever they want to call it, it's DOA. Beto supports a realistic pathway to single payer. I'll prefer that. And Beto's priotity of structural reforms will make eventual single payer possible.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

And there are dual systems in Europe that are successful. Frankly I probably prefer it as well.

[David Dennison 19,441]

3 minutes ago, troph said:

Beto imo gives the Dems the surest path to victory and this time I’m not taking anything for granted. Trump is a lunatic but he’s got brilliant campaign chops. Beto beats him - on GOTV, mass appeal, money, and strategic importance of Texas, and I don’t know if anyone else holds the same number of cards as Beto.

 

Counterpoint: Beto lost to Ted Cruz.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It will be interesting to see how the polls then primaries go then, eh?

Not going to lie, I’m terrified of Bernie.  Not because of his policies or him personally but the divide that’s going to occur in this country if he wins.  I realize that will not be his fault but it’s going to be a reckoning and I haven’t decided if it will be deadly or cathartic, most likely both. 

[David Dennison 19,441]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not going to lie, I’m terrified of Bernie.  Not because of his policies or him personally but the divide that’s going to occur in this country if he wins.  I realize that will not be his fault but it’s going to be a reckoning and I haven’t decided if it will be deadly or cathartic, most likely both. 

Going to occur?

[alincoln 2,390]

 

 

6 minutes ago, troph said:

Beto imo gives the Dems the surest path to victory and this time I’m not taking anything for granted. Trump is a lunatic but he’s got brilliant campaign chops. Beto beats him - on GOTV, mass appeal, money, and strategic importance of Texas, and I don’t know if anyone else holds the same number of cards as Beto.

 

A Texas strategy in a Presidential election strikes me as insane.  I also don't think Beto provides much value in the Midwest given his focus on border issues.  That is red meat for Trump.

[troph 25,094]

8 years as a hands-on mayor of South Bend is plenty of executive experience. Mayors get shit done. 
And the "too young" excuse is laughably lazy. It's quite possible he's the most mature, thoughtful, and articulate candidate right now. 

That’s bullshit. Armed forces? Foreign policy? Interaction with a legislative branch. Yes it’s executive experience but it’s Peoria not the most powerful executive branch in the world. Governors have some semblance of understanding it no way a small town mayor does. And as for age - look I get mature for his age but damn I don’t want a kid in the White House, he’s not had enough life experience. I’m sorry I find it very difficult to accept. Life has a way of softening you and testing you and I preferthe wisdom of age.

And unrelated - and I’m as rainbow as they get carrying the first and fourth letters and the newly added fifth one - but we need to win. I’m not ready to bet on a young gay man for president. Ousting trump is too important. Call it hypocrisy call it realism I don’t care, we have to win, and I see him getting trounced if he gets the nomination.

[Hank Kingsley 21,598]

I think it highlights the current divide with Democratic voters. If feels like there are two schools of thought. 

1. Nominate the candidate that most likely will beat Trump

2. Nominate the candidate that can kickstart effective change and lead this country out of Trumpism

 

IMO, the latter choice will be enough to beat Trump. Focusing on #1 seems like a fool's errand. 

 

[NowThis 931]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Counterpoint: Beto lost to Ted Cruz.

well it was close, only 220k votes, which is a remarkable achievement for Red(neck) Texas.

If Beto is the D nominee, he'll carry Texas meaning he's POTUS. Then WI, PA, MI are irrelevant.

[alincoln 2,390]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

I think it highlights the current divide with Democratic voters. If feels like there are two schools of thought. 

1. Nominate the candidate that most likely will beat Trump

2. Nominate the candidate that can kickstart effective change and lead this country out of Trumpism

 

IMO, the latter choice will be enough to beat Trump. Focusing on #1 seems like a fool's errand. 

 

Particularly since it is entirely subjective at this point

[troph 25,094]

 
 
A Texas strategy in a Presidential election strikes me as insane.  I also don't think Beto provides much value in the Midwest given his focus on border issues.  That is red meat for Trump.

The Texas strategy is on the R side - republicans can’t take it for granted. I think Beto largely ignores Texas but trump can’t.

[Hank Kingsley 21,598]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

That’s bullshit. Armed forces? Foreign policy? Interaction with a legislative branch. Yes it’s executive experience but it’s Peoria not the most powerful executive branch in the world. Governors have some semblance of understanding it no way a small town mayor does. And as for age - look I get mature for his age but damn I don’t want a kid in the White House, he’s not had enough life experience. I’m sorry I find it very difficult to accept. Life has a way of softening you and testing you and I preferthe wisdom of age.

And unrelated - and I’m as rainbow as they get carrying the first and fourth letters and the newly added fifth one - but we need to win. I’m not ready to bet on a young gay man for president. Ousting trump is too important. Call it hypocrisy call it realism I don’t care, we have to win, and I see him getting trounced if he gets the nomination.

Buttigieg served in Afghanistan. What life experience has Beto had?

 

[alincoln 2,390]

1 minute ago, NowThis said:

well it was close, only 220k votes, which is a remarkable achievement for Red(neck) Texas.

If Beto is the D nominee, he'll carry Texas meaning he's POTUS. Then WI, PA, MI are irrelevant.

Trump is more popular than Cruz in Texas

[David Dennison 19,441]

Just now, NowThis said:

well it was close, only 220k votes, which is a remarkable achievement for Red(neck) Texas.

If Beto is the D nominee, he'll carry Texas meaning he's POTUS. Then WI, PA, MI are irrelevant.

Maybe.

Probably not, though.

[hobbes2702 13,351]

7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Maybe.

Probably not, though.

Zero chance he could carry Texas.

[bad_teammate 13,481]

The level of "I'm a genius pundit" certainty that is cast without evidence from the Beto Boosters is astonishing to see. It's like 2016 didn't happen, or at least that there was nothing to learn about having such confidence in one's own certainty.

I ask this all the time, but can someone show me the map? Second, can someone show me the evidence for that map?

I'm not saying it's not there, but it would be very instructive for those of you who are bone-deep certain that Beto is going to win Texas to look at the demographics, polls, and history of the actual states and then think of the real, honest case.

270towin

Click "2016 Actual" and make the map.

[TexEx15 17,914]

24 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Counterpoint: Beto lost to Ted Cruz.

Counter counterpoint: this has no bearing on a presedtial election as has been discussed plenty on this thread.

[NowThis 931]

7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Zero chance he could carry Texas.

Trump beat listless HRC by only about 715k votes in TX. It's not completely impossible for Beto to GOTV + Trump Hate + independents. 

[Dahobbs 18,192]

17 minutes ago, alincoln said:

Trump is more popular than Cruz in Texas

Pretty sure this is incorrect. It is actually the opposite. 

[bad_teammate 13,481]

Just now, NowThis said:

Trump beat listless HRC by only about 715k votes in TX.

Trump had just fought a hard primary against Cruz and there was profound division in the Texas GOP. That division has healed and united behind Donnie Boy.

And also, doesn't that kind of undercut the idea that Beto did some unthinkable, remarkable thing when losing by "only 220k"?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Going to occur?

Yes, a radical swing to the left may break this country in half.  Maybe that needs to happen since our system has been methodically manipulated and broken by the oligarchs but I have no illusions about how ugly it can get.  

If you think things are bad now, it can be so much worse. 

I'll still vote for Bernie in a heartbeat over Trump or any republican tho. 

 

[Dahobbs 18,192]

NSIAP (from https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2019/03/it-turns-out-beto-orourke-stole-phone-service-pirated-software-as-a-kid/)

 Beto O'Rourke, the former Texas congressman and Senate candidate and recently declared Democratic candidate for president in 2020, has been outed as a former member of what has been described as America's oldest hacking group—the Cult of the Dead Cow (CDC). O'Rourke admitted to his membership in an interview for an upcoming book about the group, reported by Reuters.

O'Rourke's role in the group, starting in the late 1980s, was more focused on writing screeds for the CDC's text-file essays than hacking. O'Rourke, like other teens of the time, did find ways to avoid paying for long-distance dial-up phone service time to connect to bulletin board systems (BBSs) of the day across the country with his family's Apple IIe computer and 300 baud modem, which he often used to search for pirated games.  . . .

As "PsychedelicWarlord," O'Rourke spent most of his time posting thought-provoking essays, song lyrics from punk albums, and the occasional poem. At one point, he and another member interviewed a neo-Nazi. And in one post, he gave "The True Story of Cult of the Dead Cow," in which he claimed authorship of the name"

Awesome. 

[F250 29,177]

1 hour ago, alincoln said:

That remains to be seen.  If they nominate Beto (or Harris or Booker) instead of one of the many D candidates with real experience, vision and/or ideas (Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Yang), then maybe.

How does Buttigieg end up the list of candidates with real experience? He is the mayor of a midwest town the size of Waco. South Bend make Corpus Christi seem like a metropolis. Shit, Castro was the mayor of a top 10 city and served in Obama's cabinet but gets less credit than mayor Pete.

 

[bad_teammate 13,481]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yes, a radical swing to the left may break this country in half.

It's a good thing no radical leftists are running, then.

Bernie is a New Deal Democrat.

Have more perspective than a paranoid Republican.

[NowThis 931]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Trump had just fought a hard primary against Cruz and there was profound division in the Texas GOP. That division has healed and united behind Donnie Boy.

And also, doesn't that kind of undercut the idea that Beto did some unthinkable, remarkable thing when losing by "only 220k"?

the turnout for Beto will be much higher than for HRC.  Also, no it doesn't undercut anything. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I think it highlights the current divide with Democratic voters. If feels like there are two schools of thought. 

1. Nominate the candidate that most likely will beat Trump

2. Nominate the candidate that can kickstart effective change and lead this country out of Trumpism

 

IMO, the latter choice will be enough to beat Trump. Focusing on #1 seems like a fool's errand. 

 

This is the correct assessment but unfortunately we aren't programmed to think long term.  It's always about the threat right in front of our face.

It's why climate change and active measures aren't taken seriously even though there is evidence everywhere that it's happening.  By the time the real consequences begin to hit, it will already be too late. 

[hobbes2702 13,351]

The turnout for Trump will be much higher this time around. Trump has grown in popularity among Republicans.

[bad_teammate 13,481]

Hillary, a lazy garbage candidate who didn't even try in Texas, lost by 750k.
Beto, a super energetic ideal candidate who worked his butt off and doubled his opponent in campaign spending, lost by 220k.

It's possible, but... uh...

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It's a good thing no radical leftists are running, then.

Bernie is a New Deal Democrat.

Have more perspective than a paranoid Republican.

Sorry, but you don't get to sell Bernie as a democrat.  

He's worked too hard not to be one. 

[bad_teammate 13,481]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Sorry, but you don't get to sell Bernie as a democrat.  

He's worked too hard not to be one. 

You better tell the Senate Democrats, because he's on their front page and he's their Senate Outreach Chair.

lol Hugo seein' Russians in the shadows

[hobbes2702 13,351]

That was at Hugo’s comment about Bernie

Edited March 18, 2019 by hobbes2702

[DixonHur 11,942]

To me Beto running (and in many ways leading the Dems field) is more confirmation that the US electoral system has officially stooped to the level of HS politics, where the most popular kid is voted as class president as opposed to the most qualified.  

Obama had way more experience than Beto and that's saying something.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Let me clarify my thoughts on Bernie, I know he's not a radical liberal and his policy ideas are very popular among the electorate.. But what I know about him doesn't matter much.  What matters is the perception of him that will be sold to certain segments of the population, and their natural reflexive response.  It's not like a bunch of fascist militants have been radicalized online over the last ten years to fight "muh socialism" at any cost.  I'm not scared of those pussies though, let them come out and fight.  I just know, they probably will.  Hopefully we can deal with it responsibly. 

 

[Anastasis 23,700]

1 hour ago, horncyclist said:

There is zero chance our current insurance-based system could be replaced by single payer in broad sweeping legislation. Zero. Look at the Clinton 90s effort and how Obamacare has gone. It doesnt matter if 70% support it on paper. Once the Koch Bros label it socialism, Berniecare, or whatever they want to call it, it's DOA. Beto supports a realistic pathway to single payer. I'll prefer that. And Beto's priotity of structural reforms will make eventual single payer possible.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

Agree in general , but there is a workable path towards universal coverage within the M4A framework, integrating the private options available today within Medicare. I believe that this kinda of approach would be politically viable to both the right and the left if framed appropriately (universal and catastrophic coverage for all, free market competition and options for consumers. It would also preserve a Medicare option that is increasing preferred by age-eligible members, and is associated with better health outcomes among the most medically complex individuals compared to FFS. Take an approach that integrates Medicare Advantage, and you take at least two of the big special interest groups that might weigh in against a M4A single payer system off the table.   

[Bama Chick 28,596]

So $6.1 million huh?

[Spankytoes 1,748]

49 minutes ago, NowThis said:

well it was close, only 220k votes, which is a remarkable achievement for Red(neck) Texas.

If Beto is the D nominee, he'll carry Texas meaning he's POTUS. Then WI, PA, MI are irrelevant.

1. 220K votes is not "close". If you look at the voting map, Beto only won the urban areas and border towns, which tend to go Democrat anyway. There's nothing earth shattering about that: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-senate

2. If Beto wins the nomination, which he won't, he's not beating Trump in TX, where a good segment of the wall exists. 

[Spankytoes 1,748]

12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Let me clarify my thoughts on Bernie, I know he's not a radical liberal and his policy ideas are very popular among the electorate.. But what I know about him doesn't matter much.  What matters is the perception of him that will be sold to certain segments of the population, and their natural reflexive response.  It's not like a bunch of fascist militants have been radicalized online over the last ten years to fight "muh socialism" at any cost.  I'm not scared of those pussies though, let them come out and fight.  I just know, they probably will.  Hopefully we can deal with it responsibly. 

 

Bernie is the "Ice bucket challenge" of candidates. 

[bad_teammate 13,481]

11 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

So $6.1 million huh?

Yep. Huge number. Very important number.

If he spends it well by getting a good campaign manager (doesn't have one yet) who then pays to staff the primary and caucus states this far out. Great news for Team Beto and great news for a more interesting primary.

If he had sputtered out of the gate in perception AND fundraising and then Biden collapsed, Bernie would be the steamrolling frontrunner with his pile of cash and on-the-ground organization.

Beto now can build a competitor.

As I said in the OP, he's the most interesting character.

[David Dennison 19,441]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yes, a radical swing to the left may break this country in half.  Maybe that needs to happen since our system has been methodically manipulated and broken by the oligarchs but I have no illusions about how ugly it can get.  

If you think things are bad now, it can be so much worse. 

I'll still vote for Bernie in a heartbeat over Trump or any republican tho. 

Meaning what, exactly?

[bad_teammate 13,481]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Meaning what, exactly?

It doesn't mean anything, but it sounds good doesn't it?

#Beto2020

[Zavala 1,384]

 

[Biff Tannen 46,061]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Meaning what, exactly?

I think it's pretty clear, especially when the RNC is actively pushing for violence and civil war.  

[Continental Op 3,934]

Hugo and David are a fucking beating. 

[David Dennison 19,441]

1 minute ago, Zavala said:

 

He's right, especially when you consider modern American police forces trace their roots to slave patrols.

[scottsins 2,040]

 

Title of that clip is trollish AF

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

17 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Meaning what, exactly?

The rise of someone much smarter and nefarious than Trump on the right is my biggest fear because the seeds of evil are being planted and fertilized by Trumpism.  Only a matter of time until someone competent capitalizes on all that hate and division in the country. 

Trump really opened up the playbook for what is and isn't acceptable. 

Outlook not so good.  I'll see myself out on Brisket's ledge. 

Edited March 18, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[David Dennison 19,441]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The rise of someone much smarter and nefarious than Trump on the right is my biggest fear because the seeds of evil are being planted and fertilized by Trumpism.  Only a matter of time until someone competent really capitalizes on all that hate and division in the country. 

Trump really opened up the playbook for what is and isn't acceptable. 

Outlook not so good.  I'll be on Brisket's ledge. 

Yeah, I'm not really worried about that. 

[Grade of D as in David 13,255]

2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Hillary ran against one person in the Democratic primary.

Beto is not going to be able to get through a field this size without being forced to state detailed policy positions.

I miss all of the well formulated policy talks when our current president was campaigning against his 15 Republican opponents in the primary.

[NowThis 931]

Just now, Grade of D as in David said:

I miss all of the well formulated policy talks when our current president was campaigning against his 15 Republican opponents in the primary.

true, just for fun, I go through the Youtube debates to see how the hell did Trump pull it off.  Anger, Arrogance, dismissive of everything as lies, everything a big F Y.