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Posted

Available teams with 18 picks to go:

Abilene Christian
Arizona St./St. John's
Baylor
Bradley
Colgate
Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
Gardner-Webb
Georgia St.
Iona
Minnesota
Montana
North Carolina Central/North Dakota St.
Northern Kentucky
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
St. Louis
Utah St.
Virginia Commonwealth
Posted

After third snake

Huckleberry - 71.52
HornOnTheBayou - 68.15
Jack Straw - 54.82
Goo Punch - 54.25
Bartles - 51.98
BigOrange1 - 48.93
Capn81 - 45.94
IPoopOnWhoop - 43.99

I am out until 7:00 but will have a list.

Posted

By the way, this is what the EVs per team would be by first round pick position if the draft had gone chalk according to my ratings. This reinforces that draft order is basically irrelevant in this game.

1 - 60.58
2 - 60.08
3 - 60.53
4 - 60.85
5 - 61.13
6 - 61.01
7 - 61.14
8 - 62.28
  • Like 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

By the way, this is what the EVs per team would be by first round pick position if the draft had gone chalk according to my ratings. This reinforces that draft order is basically irrelevant in this game.

1 - 60.58
2 - 60.08
3 - 60.53
4 - 60.85
5 - 61.13
6 - 61.01
7 - 61.14
8 - 62.28

EVs? 

Posted (edited)

Expected value, meaning that according to my ratings if the tournament were played a near infinite number of times that would be the average number of points the contest selections would score. Based on the EVs for each individual team in the tournament.

But the tournament is only played once so things swing pretty wildly once we get going.

Edited by Huckleberry
Posted
2 minutes ago, IPoopOnWhoop said:

How many points typically wins this thing?

Over 100

1 minute ago, Goo Punch said:

which teams are left?

The two 16 seed play-in games.

Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
North Carolina Central/North Dakota St.
Posted
Huckleberry - 79.22
HornOnTheBayou - 73.77
Goo Punch - 61.14
Jack Straw - 59.44
BigOrange1 - 59.11
Bartles - 56.58
IPoopOnWhoop - 51.89
Capn81 - 46.46

 

1. Auburn, 13.99 - Huckleberry
2. Michigan St., 13.29 - HornOnTheBayou
3. Maryland, 12.95 - Huckleberry
4. Iowa St., 12.72 - Bartles
5. Florida, 12.59 - Huckleberry
6. Ohio St., 12.45 - Huckleberry
7. Virginia Tech, 12.38 - HornOnTheBayou
8. Purdue, 12.34 - Jack Straw
9. Texas Tech, 12.29 - Capn81
10. Louisville, 12.20 - BigOrange1
11. Wisconsin, 12.07 - HornOnTheBayou
12. Florida St., 11.80 - Bartles
13. Iowa, 11.08 - Huckleberry
14. Kansas, 10.96 - HornOnTheBayou
15. St. Mary's, 10.87 - Goo Punch
16. Tennessee, 10.87 - Capn81
17. Mississippi St., 10.84 - Goo Punch
18. Oregon, 10.73 - Goo Punch
19. Buffalo, 10.69 - IPoopOnWhoop
20. Nevada, 10.49 - Jack Straw
21. Kentucky, 10.10 - HornOnTheBayou
22. Marquette, 9.66 - Jack Straw
23. Houston, 9.56 - Jack Straw
24. Wofford, 9.35 - HornOnTheBayou
25. Oklahoma, 9.26 - BigOrange1
26. Syracuse, 8.86 - BigOrange1
27. Seton Hall, 8.53 - BigOrange1
28. Duke, 8.52 - Capn81
29. Michigan, 8.50 - Bartles
30. Virginia, 8.46 - Huckleberry
31. Villanova, 8.39 - BigOrange1
32. Gonzaga, 8.05 - IPoopOnWhoop
33. Kansas St., 7.95 - Bartles
34. LSU, 7.81 - Jack Straw
35. Baylor, 7.67 - IPoopOnWhoop
36. Arizona St./St. John's, 7.66 - Capn81
37. Utah St., 7.61 - Goo Punch
38. North Carolina, 7.39 - Bartles
39. Cincinnati, 7.36 - Goo Punch
40. Central Florida, 7.25 - BigOrange1
41. Murray St., 7.18 - IPoopOnWhoop
42. Washington, 6.95 - IPoopOnWhoop
43. New Mexico St., 6.83 - Goo Punch
44. Minnesota, 6.50 - Huckleberry
45. Virginia Commonwealth, 6.46 - Goo Punch
46. Mississippi, 6.01 - IPoopOnWhoop
47. Belmont/Temple, 5.10 - IPoopOnWhoop
48. UC-Irvine, 4.95 - Jack Straw
49. Yale, 3.70 - BigOrange1
50. Vermont, 3.62 - Bartles
51. Saint Louis, 3.51 - Bartles
52. Northeastern, 3.50 - Capn81
53. Liberty, 3.09 - Capn81
54. Northern Kentucky, 2.99 - HornOnTheBayou
55. Georgia St., 2.63 - HornOnTheBayou
56. Old Dominion, 2.34 - Jack Straw
57. Montana, 2.28 - Jack Straw
58. Abilene Christian, 1.19 - Huckleberry
59. Colgate, 1.09 - Bartles
60. Bradley, 0.92 - BigOrange1
61. Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M, 0.43 - Goo Punch
62. Iona, 0.28 - Capn81
63. North Carolina Central/North Dakota St., 0.24 - Capn81
64. Gardner-Webb, 0.24 - IPoopOnWhoop
Posted

definitely a different strategy for me this year after my poor finish last year.  didn't take any team seeded higher than 6 and ended up with a 6, a 7, an 8, two 9's and a 10.

gonna need some upsets, but if it gets crazy i should be in it.

Posted

^ interesting.  this is the first time I’ve done one of these so I was kind of formulating strategy on the fly.  I was wondering if I was the only one who ended up without a 1 or 2 seed and if that was a good thing or a bad thing - so your post answered the first part of that, anyway.  the only pick of mine I really dislike looking back at it is LSU, but who knows.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

yeah, same here, this is my first go round. i have no clue what to expect, but as always, i'm down to clown. 

whoa, i thought you'd done this before.

Posted
15 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

wulaw is always the one I go to with questions about Pflugerville girls. Have I been doing it wrong this whole time?

i mean theyre all legit 8's and up so it really doesn't matter. 

  • Like 1
Posted
43 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

i mean theyre all legit 8's and up so it really doesn't matter. 

He and I have been debating whether or not there has been a female PHS grad under a 9. We are going to publish our results soon.

  • Like 1
Posted

$25 works for me. I seem to recall last time I was in, the guy with a bunch of 1-2 seeds won it. But he also had an 8 that made a long run so that was big. I think I would have won if Gonzaga had beaten UNC in the final which made that game even harder to swallow

Posted

yeah i think that was capn 2 years ago and he took a lot of the higher seeded teams.

last year all hell broke loose with layola chicago, florida state, kansas state and umbc getting big points.

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