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Oakland mayor Libby Schaaf said today that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred has indicated that he sees Las Vegas, Nevada as a possible relocation spot for the Athletics, Sal Castaneda of KTVU reports on Twitter. Manfred’s threat of exploring options in Vegas had been reported recently by the San Francisco Chronicle.

The newly combative stance from MLB’s top official arose after the city of Oakland filed a surprise suit to block a major portion of the A’s stadium plans. Manfred’s already reported comments conveyed a thinly veiled warning that the team and league could consider alternatives. But it was not known that he had specifically floated Las Vegas as a realistic possibility.

Vegas holds particular allure for Major League Baseball and special meaning to Oakland-area fans. After all, Sin City just lured away the Raiders with a massively subsidized new stadium. Whether or not there’s further appetite in Nevada for taxpayer-funded facilities isn’t really clear, but it is at least a facially plausible threat for the commissioner to make. Notably, though, local officials said they were unaware of any actual discussions to this point, per the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Several other cities have been mentioned at times as potential relocation spots, but it’s not clear which if any would be serious possibilities with the Rays already flirting with Montreal.

Manfred has made clear plenty of times in the past that his strong preference is for the Athletics to remain in Oakland. And the A’s have worked hard to come up with a workable plan built around private financing (which isn’t to say that significant public support wouldn’t be involved). There are surely still plenty of pathways for that result, though it’s also certain that team and league have little appetite for too many more campaigns in the Coliseum.

 

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6 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

50% fewer homeruns than expected is an insanely massive change.  What the fuck is the MLB doing?  

Not to be "non-conspiracy" guy, but wouldn't you *expect* much fewer HRs in the playoffs? 

Because teams are throwing their best pitchers (tail-end rotation guys aren't starting - especially in the division series), and managers are more likely to pull their starter at the first sign of trouble.

And also the weather is cooling off (at least in some places) which leads to fewer HRs.

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9 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Not to be "non-conspiracy" guy, but wouldn't you *expect* much fewer HRs in the playoffs? 

Because teams are throwing their best pitchers (tail-end rotation guys aren't starting - especially in the division series), and managers are more likely to pull their starter at the first sign of trouble.

And also the weather is cooling off (at least in some places) which leads to fewer HRs.

The analysis is based off of quality of contact, so the quality of pitching is irrelevant.  Also, the air temperature for the postseason games so far has been greater than the average air temperature for the regular season.  So, for instance, a playoff baseball hit 100 mph at 26 degrees launch angle is much less likely to result in a home run than a regular season baseball hit at the same velocity and angle at a given park.  

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3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Yeah, MLB definitely wanted to keep out the big HR hitting teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros in favor of light hitting teams like the Rays and Cardinals. 

Or the MLB could simply be incompetent.  I don't know if they intended to use a dead ball for the postseason.

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52 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Not to be "non-conspiracy" guy, but wouldn't you *expect* much fewer HRs in the playoffs? 

Because teams are throwing their best pitchers (tail-end rotation guys aren't starting - especially in the division series), and managers are more likely to pull their starter at the first sign of trouble.

And also the weather is cooling off (at least in some places) which leads to fewer HRs.

Didn’t see last years numbers, but in 2017 the per game homer rate was higher in the postseason than regular season. Saber dorks have disproven the notion that home run hitting teams are at a disadvantage in the playoffs, even with the increased pitching quality. And common sense says when facing a great pitcher it’s easier to score a run by putting one mistake pitch in the seats vs trying to string together multiple hits or walks.

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Has MLB Pulled a Switcharoo with the Baseballs this October?

By Jay Jaffe:

 

For a moment, it looked like Will Smith would be the hero. In the bottom of the ninth, sandwiched between the two cataclysmic half-innings that abruptly ended the 106-win Dodgers’ season, they had a brief flicker of hope when with one out and one on, Smith hit a drive off Daniel Hudson that looked as though it might — might — make him the hero, with a walk-off home run that sent the Dodgers to the NLCS. It was hardly implausible given that the 24-year-old rookie had hit two of the Dodgers’ major leauge-leading seven walk-off home runs this year, or that nearly half the drives hit to the specifications of which he struck Hudson’s hanging slider — 100.3 mph, at a 26 degree launch angle — have left the yard over the past five seasons.

It wasn’t to be.

 

Smith’s drive fell short as, ultimately and in more gruesome fashion, did the Dodgers. There will be plenty of time to dissect the larger situation but for the moment, consider the batted ball, which had a 69% of becoming a hit and a 46.1% chance of going out based on similarly struck spheroids. When it didn’t, it was just the latest in the genre of hold-your-breath moments that wound up producing mutterings that maybe the baseball has been de-juiced this October — that is, that the postseason ball is different from what’s been used in the regular season.

It’s not hard to understand why this notion has taken hold. So far this month, we’ve seen home runs hit at a lower frequency than during a regular season that set all kinds of records for long balls, and scoring rates have fallen as well. In the blur of Division Series games, many a hard-hit ball appeared bound to go out — at least based upon the way our brains have become calibrated to this year’s nearly-numbing frequency — only to die at the warning track. Yet it’s harder to make the case that something is different given a closer look at the numbers, both traditional and Statcast, at least if you’re not Baseball Prospectus’ Rob Arthur, whose model to calculate the drag on the baseball by measuring a pitch’s loss of speed does suggest something is afoot. More on his latest findings below, after I present my own analysis.

Fueled primarily by more aerodynamic baseballs, with smoother leather and seams so low that the balls are nearly round, batters hit a record 6,776 homers during the regular season, 671 more than the previous high set in 2017. On a per-game basis, the 1.39 homers per team was 21.4% higher than last year, 11.0% higher than the record set in 2017, and 61.9% higher than in 2014, the year homers reached their post-strike low point (0.86 per team per game). On a per plate appearance basis, this year’s 3.63% rate was 20.4% higher than last year, 10.3% higher than in 2017, and 59.6% higher than in 2014, while on a per batted ball basis, the 5.42% rate was 21.8% higher than last year, 12.5% higher than 2017, and 67.7% higher than in 2014. You get it.

 

Any way you slice it, it was a lot of homers, too many for some tastes, my own included. So far in October, we’re seeing fewer of them, though they’re hardly scarce. Through Wednesday’s games, teams averaged 1.29 homers per game, a drop of 7.6% from the regular season, but a rate that’s still higher than the 2017 regular season mark. For what it’s worth, per-game scoring has dropped by 13.4%, from 4.83 runs per game in the regular season to 4.18.

Both drops are in line with Wild Card-era history. As YES researcher James Smyth noted back in March, from 1995-2018, playoff teams’ per-game scoring fell 16% relative to the regular season, but their per-game home run rate fell by just 8%. Better pitching, better defense, and colder weather have an impact upon both rates, but moreso on scoring. For what it’s worth, on a per plate appearance basis, this October’s 3.41% is about 6% below the regular season, but the per batted ball rate of 5.47% is up a hair, from 5.42%! The rise in strikeout rates, from 23.0% during the regular season, to 27.0% in the postseason, is playing a significant part in the per-game homer decrease.

So this all may be just in our heads, part of the casual chatter in press boxes, broadcast booths, and on social media. Watching various Division Series games, a few drives come to mind as ones that tripped my own switch — and sometimes those of the play-by-play voices — as far as believing a home run was in progress. As I wrote a couple weeks ago, often, it’s steep launch angles that produce such a response, since exit velocity is harder to determine in that split second that the camera is focused on the batter, and at that point we don’t yet know the distance.

Here are clips of a few drives that caught my eye, all from Monday’s four-game smorgasbord, First is the Braves’ Adeiny Hechavarría, batting against the Cardinals’ Andrew Miller with the bases loaded in the top of the seventh inning:

That’s 94.1 mph off the bat with a 32.5 degree launch angle, a combination that only produces a homer between 7.5 and 10.5% of the time (I’m using 32 and 33 degrees with the Statcast Exit Velocity & Launch Angle Field Breakdown). It sure looked more impressive to start, perhaps in part because of the tension of the situation and the unlikelihood of the batter’s heroics. The Cardinals led 4-3 at the time, but the Braves were trying to cash in on a sun-aided leadoff triple by Ronald Acuña Jr.; Hechavarría homered a career high nine times this year in 221 PA but produced just an 87.5 mph average exit velocity overall; he doesn’t usually put a charge into one like that. A bit more oomph and/or a bit closer to the foul line and that one had a chance to go out, but as it was, it was a fairly routine fly ball.

Here’s the Twins’ Marwn Gonzalez, representing the tying run against the Yankees’ Chad Green in the sixth inning of Game 3 of that series:

 

That’s 100.2 mph off the bat with a 37.9 degree launch angle, a bit steep; that combination produces a homer 21.5% of the time, a rate about half of what it would be at the same speed but with a 33-degree angle (46.3%). This one went an estimated 359 feet, not quite enough to get it over the wall marked at 365 feet.

Those weren’t quite the close calls that they initially appeared to be. This one, off the bat of the Dodgers’ Max Muncy — the subject that keyed my recent look at launch angle porn — against the Nationals’ Sean Doolittle, is almost always a home run:

That’s 107.1 mph off the bat, with a 31.9 degree launch angle, a combination that produces a homer 94.5% of the time. Statcast’s 400-foot estimate might be generous by a couple feet given where it was caught relative to the 402 sign, but regardless, Muncy did not maximize the impact of that drive because he hit to the fat part of the ballpark, and had the wind working against him. “I think I might have had a little bit of help there from Mother Nature,” said Doolittle after the game. “I think we kicked up the wind a little bit,” said catcher Kurt Suzuki.

Here it’s worth pointing out that those home run percentages are based on five years worth of outcomes in all ballparks. The presentation is overlaid on a map of Cleveland’s Progressive Field, but its dimensions don’t factor into the percentages. It’s also worth noting that none of these percentages account for the spin of the ball, which produces both lift and drag as it increases. Here’s FanGraphs alum Travis Sawchik quoting the game’s foremost physicist from a September 12 article:

Alan Nathan, physics professor emeritus at the University of Illinois and MLB consultant, says there are optimum spin levels in baseball for batters. “Not only does the lift increase with the spin, but it’s really only been in the last few years that we’ve realized that the air drag also increases with the spin,” Nathan told FiveThirtyEight. “So that slows the ball down.”

In that piece, Sawchik noted that spin rates on batted balls this year have declined, producing less drag, a potential factor in this year’s home run surge. For what it’s worth, all three of the drives I illustrated had spin rates below the median of the respective launch angle buckets shown in Sawchik’s article (2,751 rpm for Hechavarria’s drive, 2,484 rpm for Gonzalez’s, 2,264 rpm for Muncy’s), suggesting at the very least that their spins weren’t hindering the ball’s flight:

 

“Certainly by 2,500 rpm it starts to level off, meaning with additional spin you don’t get any increase in distance [as a hitter],” Nathan said. “Then if you go even higher, maybe above 3,000 or 3,500 rpm, that’s the [range] where distance actually starts to decrease with spin as the drag starts to overwhelm the good benefits that you get with the additional lift.”

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that the average fly ball distance this October is higher than it is in the regular season, a quirk that we haven’t seen since 2015, and the the expected wOBA on fly balls is higher:

 
Statcast Fly Ball Comparison
Yr Reg Season Postseason Dif Reg xwOBA Post xwOBA Dif
2015 315 318 +1.0% .321 .428 +.107
2016 318 312 -1.9% .381 .383 +.002
2017 320 315 -1.6% .453 .429 -.024
2018 319 318 -0.3% .432 .416 -.016
2019 323 328 +1.5% .455 .525 +.070
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
All data through October 9.

Fly ball distances through Wednesday have increased by an average of five feet, and xwOBAs on flies is up by 70 points. Both of those differences run counter to what we’d expect if the balls being used are less lively than ones in the regular season. Those longer fly balls and higher xwOBAs are the result of balls being hit harder, an average of 93.5 mph, compared to 92.0 in the regular season.

Given that it’s October, it’s of course worth noting that all of this is happening despite cooler temperatures, which will cut into a fly ball’s distance. In a 2017 paper, “Effect of Temperature on Home Run Production,” Dr. Nathan calculated that for temperatures between 50 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit, fly ball distance increases (or decreases) by 0.33 feet for every degree the temperature rises (or falls). We don’t know what the temperature was at the time those balls were hit — MLB only publishes the first-pitch temperature — but, for example, the starting temperature of the Yankees-Twins game at Target Field was 62 degrees, 18 degrees cooler than the starting temperature on September 21, the Twins’ second-to-last regular season home game; under those conditions, a fly ball in Game 3 would travel six feet fewer than the earlier one when struck under identical conditions. It’s not hard at all to imagine a drop of 10 degrees from first pitch to the bottom of the ninth; that would cost the batter 3.3 feet. For the Dodgers and Smith, that might have been enough to avoid a crushing defeat.

All of that certainly leaves room for a deeper analysis by somebody more adept than myself when it comes to the physics of lift, drag, and spin such as Arthur, who was answering the Bat-Signal even as I was putting this together. On April 5, with just six days of 2019 data underfoot, he had noted, “the drag numbers so far are among the lowest recorded in the last calendar year” and concluded that “the baseball has played like it’s much more aerodynamic than it was last year. In fact, the current drag coefficient is really only comparable to 2017, when the baseballs were more aerodynamic than they had been in at least a decade.” Arthur acknowledged that drag had a tendency to fluctuate over the course of the year, based on “natural manufacturing variation or differences in the underlying supplies of cowhide and thread,” but believed that we were in for a big year, homer-wise, which proved to be the case.

 

In his latest analysis, Arthur notes a drastic change:

In the last week’s worth of Division Series games, the drag coefficient spiked to a high it hadn’t regularly sat at since 2016. October days only contain a fraction of the games of a typical regular season night, but we’re still dealing with a sample of more than 800 fastballs to measure drag with. The probability that a random selection of games from the rest of the regular season would feature as much air resistance as we’ve seen so far in the postseason is about one in one thousand. This was an abrupt spike, as well: It’s the largest change in drag coefficient from week to week this season, by a factor of three.

Arthur also built a model of home run probability based on exit velocity, launch angle, and a park effect, which he deployed in August. Using it on October data:

In total, this model predicted that there should have been 24 more home runs so far in the playoffs than the 43 that were actually hit–an astounding 50 percent difference. For example, Muncy’s monster blast had a 95 percent probability of clearing the fence based on the regular season baseball. Instead, it fell several feet short. Two other fly balls had in excess of a 98 percent chance of being home runs before becoming outs instead.

…The model predicted that around 30 batted balls had between a 20 and 50 percent chance of becoming home runs, and that about 10 of them should have made it. Instead, only one of that group so far this postseason has landed beyond the fences

Arthur’s work squares with the wide perception that things have changed, leading him to conclude:

Almost overnight within the same season, the ball has been replaced by one with wholly distinct characteristics, ranging from the speed with which it leaves the bat to the distance it travels. It’s hard to believe that MLB, which owns the company that produces the baseballs, would consciously approve a change to their manufacturing on the eve of the most important month of the season, but it’s also hard to believe that this would happen by accident.

Even so, Arthur’s findings don’t explain the longer fly ball distances I noted, or the more or less equivalent rate of home runs on contact relative to the regular season. It’s certainly plausible that my findings are artifacts of a small sample size, but they’re there nonetheless, as a reminder that explanations are not always neat and tidy.

For what it’s worth, via Statcast data through games of March 28 (202 balls, the closest end-of-day total I can get to the current sample of 229 in this postseason), the average fly ball distance was at 325 feet, though by April 4, the day before Arthur’s piece ran, it was down to 317 feet, a fluctuation that suggests the measure hadn’t stabilized. Last year, in games through October 16, the 233 fly balls to that point averaged 321 feet, three feet longer than the final average, which was based on 363 fly balls. In 2017, through games of October 14, the 238 fly balls to that point averaged 312 feet, three feet shorter than the final average, which was based on 417 fly balls. So yes, things can change.

There’s still room for more analysis, not just with regards to larger sample sizes but also verification of physical differences in the postseason baseball relative to the regular season one (paging Dr. Meredith Wills and those who can supply herwith postseason baseballs). What’s more, we have yet to hear from pitchers such as Justin Verlander telling us that the baseballs feel different, or have different seam heights — but then, if the current conditions are working to their advantage, if the ball has been deadened somehow and is producing more drag, they’re probably less likely to speak up than when they’re getting bombarded by homers. One way or another, particularly so long as this postseason runs, this discussion isn’t going away.

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Just because each team uses the same balls doesn't mean that some teams will be advantaged by the change to the dead ball while others will be disadvantaged.  For instance, a team with a lot of fly ball pitchers would be better off playing a team with a lot of ground ball pitchers using the dead ball.  It's also joke to make a major change to the ball in the postseason without warning.  Are they going to start making changes to the ball between series?  Between games?  It's bush league.

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51 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Just because each team uses the same balls doesn't mean that some teams will be advantaged by the change to the dead ball while others will be disadvantaged.  For instance, a team with a lot of fly ball pitchers would be better off playing a team with a lot of ground ball pitchers using the dead ball.  It's also joke to make a major change to the ball in the postseason without warning.  Are they going to start making changes to the ball between series?  Between games?  It's bush league.

Just wait until the World Series comes around and they mandate that all batters must use 24 inch bats. 

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2 hours ago, Helobious said:

Didn’t see last years numbers, but in 2017 the per game homer rate was higher in the postseason than regular season. Saber dorks have disproven the notion that home run hitting teams are at a disadvantage in the playoffs, even with the increased pitching quality. And common sense says when facing a great pitcher it’s easier to score a run by putting one mistake pitch in the seats vs trying to string together multiple hits or walks.

where are you getting your information from?  that article right after your post says otherwise.  

Quote

 As YES researcher James Smyth noted back in March, from 1995-2018, playoff teams’ per-game scoring fell 16% relative to the regular season, but their per-game home run rate fell by just 8%.

if you read past that sentence i quoted it expounds further.

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2 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

where are you getting your information from?  that article right after your post says otherwise.  

if you read past that sentence i quoted it expounds further.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-is-the-postseason-of-the-home-run/

I was talking about 2017, your link is discussing a 20 year period. In other words, it was 100% irrelevant to my claim and in no way refuted it.

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/this-is-the-postseason-of-the-home-run/

I was talking about 2017, your link is discussing a 20 year period. In other words, it was 100% irrelevant to my claim and in no way refuted it.

that article isn't saying what you think it says.  the guillen number is the % of runs a team scores that comes from home runs.  that article says the guillen number in 2017 went up in the post season vs the reg season.  doesn't say anything about the per game home run rate.

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Whoops. 

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Police arrested San Diego Padres minor league pitcher Jacob Nix after he was accused of breaking into a suburban Phoenix home through a doggie door and was shot with a Taser by the homeowner.

Nix, who is facing two counts of criminal trespassing, was released this week from the Maricopa County jail on $100 bond.

Charging documents indicate the 23-year-old Nix, who is playing for the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League, was under the influence of either alcohol or drugs during Sunday's incident.

Police say Nix tried to crawl through the doggie door of a Peoria home shortly before 4 a.m. The homeowner discovered Nix and kicked him in the face.

According to the complaint, Thomas Cosgrove, a minor league pitcher for the Padres, was there and pulled Nix out of the door. The homeowner fired his Taser, hitting Nix in the back.

The documents indicate Nix told responding officers he thought he was entering his house, but he would not elaborate when asked why he tried to go inside when his own house has no doggie door.

The Padres said in a statement Thursday that the team is aware of the incident and has been in contact with authorities and the commissioner's office.

Online court records show Nix does not yet have an attorney. He has a preliminary court hearing scheduled for Oct. 16.

 

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
14 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:
Looks like we're gonna have a great ALCS matchup. Time to buy some tickets. Yankee Stadium in October is the loudest place in the majors. 

Fuck the Yankees. Go Astros. And I might have to get ALCS tix myself for game 3, 4 of 5 (if needed).

Those three games will be fun. The series will be decided back in Houston after that. If you were there two years ago then you full well know what to expect as an Astros fan in the Bronx in October. Helluva atmosphere for baseball. 

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10 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
1 hour ago, UpperWestside said:
Looks like we're gonna have a great ALCS matchup. Time to buy some tickets. Yankee Stadium in October is the loudest place in the majors. 

How can you stand all those fucking guidos

I enjoy it out there and that's a somewhat stereotypical thing to say. There's a bunch of Dominicans at the games and they fucking love baseball just as much as anyone else. They get really loud and make it a living hell for their opponent. Yankee Stadium in games that actually matter is the best pro stadium in any sport in America. It's wild and that's pretty damn fun to be a part of. 

Most of the Guidos are too busy hanging out in Howard Beach or Long Island to come up to the Bronx for a game anyhow. 😁

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56 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Those three games will be fun. The series will be decided back in Houston after that. If you were there two years ago then you full well know what to expect as an Astros fan in the Bronx in October. Helluva atmosphere for baseball. 

I was there for game 3 in 2017.  It really wasn't that loud other than the NFL wannabe bleacher fans throwing beer on people.
Boston in 2018 was a much better atmosphere.

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2 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

Yankee Stadium in games that actually matter is the best pro stadium in any sport in America. 

Right. Here's a list of pro teams (that I know of) whose stadiums are equal to/greater than the new Yankee Stadium in big games:

Seattle Sounders 

Portland Timbers

KC Chiefs

Dallas Cowboys

GS Warriors

St.Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

New Orelans Saints

OKC Thunder

 

you know what, i'm gonna stop right there, because a)i've made my point, and b)nobody but you and helobious needed to hear it anyway.  

 

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11 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

I enjoy it out there and that's a somewhat stereotypical thing to say. There's a bunch of Dominicans at the games and they fucking love baseball just as much as anyone else. They get really loud and make it a living hell for their opponent. Yankee Stadium in games that actually matter is the best pro stadium in any sport in America. It's wild and that's pretty damn fun to be a part of. 

Most of the Guidos are too busy hanging out in Howard Beach or Long Island to come up to the Bronx for a game anyhow. 😁

baseballyankeefans.gif

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10 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

Right. Here's a list of pro teams (that I know of) whose stadiums are equal to/greater than the new Yankee Stadium in big games:

Seattle Sounders 

Portland Timbers

KC Chiefs

Dallas Cowboys

GS Warriors

St.Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

New Orelans Saints

OKC Thunder

 

you know what, i'm gonna stop right there, because a)i've made my point, and b)nobody but you and helobious needed to hear it anyway.  

 

How many of those stadiums have you actually been to? Or are you just talking out of your ass again? Duffey from the Twins just admitted he was rattled in his ALDS start because he could hear the Yankee fans yelling cuss words at him and (allegedly) talking shit about his family. That’s an atmosphere. Completely chews up weak-minded players & spits them out.

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