Jimbo 2021: Meemaw's Got a Brand New Bag

[campcrunk 2437]

Just now, ASDFASDF said:

No way in hell you can convince me they're winning either of those big four games. They're all top 10 teams, three of them are away, and the other is Bama. They're definite losses. 

Toss-up was my lazy way of saying they were the "middle ground" games. Yes, they will be heavily favored, but they're more likely to lose to Arky or Ole Miss than they are to beat any of the big four. 

I get where he's coming from. I mean, aggy going 9-3 isn't completely impossible. But I still think that 8-4 is their more likely ceiling.  Even if aggy miraculously pulled off a win in one of their four tough games, it's an odd-numbered year, which means Gus Malzahn is probably going to pull a ten win season out to his ass by duct-taping an elite offense together somehow.

But 9-3 isn't completely outside the realm of possibility. Ole Miss and Arky are BAD and there's absolutely nothing special about MSU or USCe. LSU, Bama, UGA, and Clemson are all really good to great teams, but key injuries happen. Throw in aggy's cupcakes, and I could see it happening under the right circumstances.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

A lot of aggy’s record will depend on Auburn, Miss st, and SCe. Those programs could be 6-6 or 7-5 level teams or one or more could be more like a 9-3 team. 

If all three of those suck, then 9-3 is absolutely a possibility. If one or two of them put it all together and are good teams, then 8-4 is probably their ceiling, but as of now, when it’s hard to tell, 9-3 is aggy’s ceiling. 

[Fud 9551]

4 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

A lot of aggy’s record will depend on Auburn, Miss st, and SCe. Those programs could be 6-6 or 7-5 level teams or one or more could be more like a 9-3 team. 

If all three of those suck, then 9-3 is absolutely a possibility. If one or two of them put it all together and are good teams, then 8-4 is probably their ceiling, but as of now, when it’s hard to tell, 9-3 is aggy’s ceiling. 

Auburn and South Carolina have really tough schedules. They could have really good teams but still finish with poor records. 

I think A&M ends up at 7-5. None of the four tough games set up well for them; the LSU game in particular is brutal, playing probably at night in Baton Rouge a week after traveling to Georgia, and they'll be looking for revenge after getting robbed ~five times resulting in Dame Craig running up to their sidelines to talk shit and Jimbo's methhead nephew punching a 75 year old LSU QC coach in the face. 

Then I think they lose one of the rest. Probably Auburn, but maybe MSU. Or maybe Aggie Chad wins one. They'll have three weeks to prepare for Sakerlina though, so I think they win their sixth in a row against them. 

Maybe the stars align and they win one of the four, but I think A&M is taking a step back after losing their best three players on offense, 5 of their starting from 6 on defense, and their two starting safeties. They need Mond to take an Ehlinger type of step forward to reach the season they're hoping for, that usually doesn't happen. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

7 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

A lot of aggy’s record will depend on Auburn, Miss st, and SCe. Those programs could be 6-6 or 7-5 level teams or one or more could be more like a 9-3 team. 

If all three of those suck, then 9-3 is absolutely a possibility. If one or two of them put it all together and are good teams, then 8-4 is probably their ceiling, but as of now, when it’s hard to tell, 9-3 is aggy’s ceiling. 

How do trap games figure in? @ Ol’ Miss the week after Bama and USCe the week before UGA. 

[Fud 9551]

4 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

How do trap games figure in? @ Ol’ Miss the week after Bama and USCe the week before UGA. 

They have three weeks to prepare for USCjr, but I guess that could be a trap game with @ Georgia and @ LSU the two weeks after 

[utfan87 408]

32 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

Wrong try studying probability again. 

[TommyGufano 6021]

25 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

 

16 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

It’s becoming pretty clear you don’t understand how multiple factor probabilities work.

There are not higher odds they lose to Arky than win one of the 4. 

Your math is wrong. If you're assigning a 13% likelihood of winning to each game, the likelihood of a loss is 87%. 

The probability that they will lose all 4 games is .87^4, which is > 50%, so there's a less than likely chance they win 1 of those 4. You don't just add 13% together four times. So I kind of wonder if you understand how probabilities work.

You're gonna have to bump the chances of winning each game up to at least 16% if you want to use that line.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

1 minute ago, TommyGufano said:

 

Your math is wrong. If you're assigning a 13% likelihood of winning to each game, the likelihood of a loss is 87%. 

The probability that they will lose all 4 games is .87^4, which is > 50%, so there's a less than likely chance they win 1 of those 4. You don't just add 13% together four times. So I kind of wonder if you understand how probabilities work.

You're gonna have to bump the chances of winning each game up to at least 16% if you want to use that line.

Lulz. Good call. I was thinking I screwed that up after I wrote it.

 Regardless, I’d say they average a better than 16% chance of winning against each of those opponents, so the point still stands.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

2 minutes ago, utfan87 said:

Wrong try studying probability again. 

Wrong try using grammar sometime

[Machinator 32099]

[Michael Knight 12976]

They'll become a high quality sec team any day now

[Elmer_Fudd 22202]

6 minutes ago, Fud said:

They have three weeks to prepare for USCjr, but I guess that could be a trap game with @ Georgia and @ LSU the two weeks after 

South Carolina has home games against Vandy and Appalachian State the 2 weeks before aggy, but aggy is still in a better position with this having a BYE plus 1 of the cupcakes.

[lemonandaturd 4285]

I am not doing any analysis, but aggy will be 5-7 this year with losses to the big 4 and one Miss school plus Auburn and Boom.  Hide and watch.  

[Spawn of Cthulhu 2241]

When I was a youth, I became an avid Penthouse Forum reader. I was at least 17 before I realized that maybe every dude didn't bang six nurses at the hospital or get picked-up by seven horny stepsisters while hitchhiking. At what age does the average Liucci, et al, subscriber realize that Penthouse provided much better fictional whacking material for a better price?

[closetojumping 62554]

11 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lulz. Good call. I was thinking I screwed that up after I wrote it.

 Regardless, I’d say they average a better than 16% chance of winning against each of those opponents, so the point still stands.

Burt, we all have our bad days. My hope for you is that maybe you push away from the keyboard for the evening and start again tomorrow. This thread has been grim reading the past few pages and it was capped by your rejection of basic statistical principles as you taunted another poster for exactly that. 

[Burt Macklin 19020]

6 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

I am not doing any analysis, but aggy will be 5-7 this year with losses to the big 4 and one Miss school plus Auburn and Boom.  Hide and watch.  

This is what people say every year. And they go 8-4 every year.

[Bamboozled73 315]

You are all wrong.  Ags will get at least 2 moral victories against big 4

[BurntOrange4Life 74]

10 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

I am not doing any analysis, but aggy will be 5-7 this year with losses to the big 4 and one Miss school plus Auburn and Boom.  Hide and watch.  

I don't believe you, but I really want to. What the hell book it.

[HtownHorn 14663]

2 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

What "family connections" are they referring to with Harris?

Harris's dad may be related to Jammer and Diggs.

[EZ$ 2102]

21 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is what people say every year. And they go 8-4 every year.

Best 4 loss team in the country...

[lemonandaturd 4285]

19 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is what people say every year. And they go 8-4 every year.

 They are going to lose.  

[Bam Bam Sam 303]

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

 Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

 their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

A man who understands the Gaussian distribution

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

56 minutes ago, Spawn of Cthulhu said:

maybe every dude didn't bang six nurses at the hospital or get picked-up by seven horny stepsisters while hitchhiking

Speak for yourself homey.

[Tex Pete 20330]

4 hours ago, EZ$ said:

Best 4 loss team in the country...

Would beat most one loss teams because SECSECSEC!

[markstanco 12571]

I want to play.

If Georgia or alabama lose more than 1 game they will have done very badly relative to their schedule. The talent disparity in the sec is getting to the point that it will require a major upset for Georgia or alabama to lose to anyone else in the league.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

 

14 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

 

14 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

It’s becoming pretty clear you don’t understand how multiple factor probabilities work.

There are not higher odds they lose to Arky than win one of the 4. 

Take a lap, @Burt Macklin

Edited August 4, 2019 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[texifornia 56862]

[texifornia 56862]

[texifornia 56862]

[texifornia 56862]

[BayouBill 835]

[GRHorn 105]

Milroe v Stowers is gonna be great to follow over the next 5-6 years. 

From what I can tell Jimbo is literally the only person that has Stowers above Milroe. If that’s even true. 

Edited August 4, 2019 by GRHorn

[Mdhorn 5947]

23 minutes ago, texifornia said:

And Banks will get to hold jockstrap while watching Texas and their SEC counterparts play in the big boy games.  

Edited August 4, 2019 by Mdhorn

[closetojumping 62554]

When the threads rationalizing why you’re not fucked because you’re fucked start showing up for a fanbase’s board’s, dark days are coming. We’ve been there and seen it. It’s truly gratifying to see ATM fans so hell bent on nothing failing them so long as ol’Jimbo is at the helm. Don’t care, got Jimbo. Indeed you do, fellas. Good luck with aaaaaaaallllll that. 

[ClubWhatever 12120]

6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Milroe v Stowers is gonna be great to follow over the next 5-6 years. 

From what I can tell Jimbo is literally the only person that has Stowers above Milroe. If that’s even true. 

Have you watched Stowers’ film?   He’s got a cannon, seems to have good touch, and can run like a deer.  If he has anything between the ears then there’s no reason he can’t be a great player. Based on pure tools I can see him being rated higher.  Would I trade Milroe for him?   Fuck no. 

[Redneck Mutha 7954]

Bowman might be fast.  And that might play well in the big 12 and all.  But how does that help if you're playing big boy ball in a line of scrimmage league facing a wall of 4 350 lb DEs coached by natty-winning coach Jimbo Fisher?

[HtownHorn 14663]

lulz. Bowman is a CB, something they don't believe they need.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Citing the decision to  not offer Bowman as a point in your coaching staff’s favor is just incredible. 

[Hank_Hill 18791]

Bowman has one of the better sophomore tapes I’ve seen, Banks must be amazing! 

Lol at tuck fexas. The goobiest goobs.

[Neonmoon 38129]

4 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Milroe v Stowers is gonna be great to follow over the next 5-6 years. 

From what I can tell Jimbo is literally the only person that has Stowers above Milroe. If that’s even true. 

Pretty sure Jimbo is trying to take D. Davis as well. He knows Stowers is a project at best 

[HtownHorn 14663]

29 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Pretty sure Jimbo is trying to take D. Davis as well. He knows Stowers is a project at best 

As is Davis. Maybe he thinks two projects are better than one.

[Carl Spackler 3479]

I'm always amused by the sheer tonnage of stupidity and delusion on texags.

[Tex Pete 20330]

4 hours ago, Carl Spackler said:

I'm always amused by the sheer tonnage of stupidity and delusion on texags.

Why do you think aggy has a corps outfit specifically tasked with shoveling shit?

[Born Burnt 6177]

11 hours ago, texifornia said:

Did the "J" get cut off at the bottom of that last word? Or did someone actually call him "limbo"?

Limbo is a good name for someone resting on $75 million guaranteed until retirement.

 

[texifornia 56862]

[TBGFL 397]

2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Yet, Jimbo is squeaky clean in their eyes. I can tell you Jimbo Fisher is just as dirty as the rest, if not more so.

[Not a Sock 2311]

2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Ohh no a coaching mutiny what ever will we do when Meh, Drayton, warhmie and Giles demand multiyear contracts. How could Texas possibly replace all that elite coaching and recruiting talent?

[Chrispy_ 105]

Wait, who in the hell is Leak-Leak? 

[TheRRKid 227]

32 minutes ago, Chrispy_ said:

Wait, who in the hell is Leak-Leak? 

Malik?

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 8/2/2019 at 1:49 PM, sushihorn said:

Wait.  You mean pass rushing with 4 cubes and trying to cover with 4-5 safeties isn't a formula for success against the spread?

could you imagine the hilarity that would ensue should the offensive or defensive lines get diarrhea from a team meal? With those lard assed whales there would be some rushing and blocking going on all right, rushing to get to the bathroom and blocking the stalls.

Edited August 5, 2019 by SHOOTER12