Vice President tells NASA to get to the Moon in 5 years.

[ztejas 43012]

On 7/21/2024 at 10:58 PM, atomheartbevo said:

My favorite space blogger who wrote her MA thesis about the Gemini-Rogallo wing and who has a tattoo of it, is back.  @RamjetFDO I will fight you for her.

 

Her space toy collection is better than mine

Nobody eles takes about gimbal lock and Apollo 13 like she does

 

She does everything for her show herself

 

Love Amy. I follow her on ig. 

[Captainant 27239]

h/t to RPM for the link; 

https://futurism.com/the-byte/signs-boeing-starliner-completely-failed

Quote

An unnamed "informed" source told Ars Technica that there's a greater than 50 percent probability that the stranded astronauts will end up leaving the International Space Station on a SpaceX Dragon capsule, with another unnamed person telling the news outlet that the scenario is highly likely.

NASA officials are more cagey about what's happening on the record, a marked contrast from previous weeks when they expressed confidence in the Starliner's ability to safely bring back the astronauts

Starliner is a lemon and astronauts may not be flying home on it

Edited August 3 by Captainant

[Captainant 27239]

Boeing hasn't learned a single fucking lesson from killing hundreds with the MAX, and they've forgotten the lessons of Challenger

Ignoring clear problems to push humans onto a known dangerous craft is just wrong

 

[atomheartbevo 89295]

[Captainant 27239]

To contextualize Boeings statement that Berger is commenting on, here's Boeing in the beginning of the MAX crisis

 

 

[BamaATL 16592]

35 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Boeing hasn't learned a single fucking lesson from killing hundreds with the MAX, and they've forgotten the lessons of Challenger

Ignoring clear problems to push humans onto a known dangerous craft is just wrong

 

It's pretty awful when they have the choice of sending a space x rescue, which will cost a fortune or using the Soyuz backup, and those are really the serious options.  It's becoming increasing clear that the starliner should have never been human rated by NASA, given the serious amount of problems with it.  Boeing has certainly failed here, but don't give NASA a pass on culpability either.  I'm sure there was undue pressure from lobbying and whatnot, but this is a failure on so many levels.  

Boeing, once a great American company, is really at a crossroads in it's entirely.  It's gone from being one of, if not the most reputable company in the world to being a maker of junk in no small part due the clowns from Wall Street taking it over.  I don't think the company as it exists can continue, and will require being broken up (something that by the way should have been done thru anti trust, but I digress).  Ultimately, this is what happens when the financial dickheads from Wall Street corner one portion of a market.  

If I were an Astronaut stuck up there, no way in hell I'm trusting that thing.  

[pantone159 710]

15 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Boeing has certainly failed here, but don't give NASA a pass on culpability either.  I'm sure there was undue pressure from lobbying and whatnot, but this is a failure on so many levels.

I suspect that NASA is really desperate for some alternative to Elon Musk and they really really wanted another option, and so Starliner got as much rope as possible. But Boeing.

 

[BamaATL 16592]

9 hours ago, pantone159 said:

I suspect that NASA is really desperate for some alternative to Elon Musk and they really really wanted another option, and so Starliner got as much rope as possible. But Boeing.

 

That's probably true, the dangers of working with one company, in particular if it is private, is that you are potentially subject to the whims of one man.  Blue Origin is well behind on this, and even then, again, subject to the potential whims of another asshole.  

[atomheartbevo 89295]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

That's probably true, the dangers of working with one company, in particular if it is private, is that you are potentially subject to the whims of one man.  Blue Origin is well behind on this, and even then, again, subject to the potential whims of another asshole.  

Yeah but Bezos is acting like one of us, instead of spending all hours of the day and night chasing the approval and social media likes of incels who are living in their mom’s basement and who have never known the intimate touch of a woman or a man.  

[Braff Zacklin 13354]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah but Bezos is acting like one of us, instead of spending all hours of the day and night chasing the approval and social media likes of incels who are living in their mom’s basement and who have never known the intimate touch of a woman or a man.  sane.

FIF the world.

[Captainant 27239]

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-likely-to-significantly-delay-the-launch-of-crew-9-due-to-starliner-issues/

Wtf? Boeing changed the software between the last flight and this one, and now Starliner cannot autonomously undock from the ISS. 

 

The Crew 9 delay is relevant to the Starliner dilemma for a couple of reasons. One, it gives NASA more time to determine the flight-worthiness of Starliner. However, there is also another surprising reason for the delay—the need to update Starliner’s flight software. Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

At first blush, this seems absurd. After all, Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test 2 mission in May 2022 was a fully automated test of the Starliner vehicle. During this mission, the spacecraft flew up to the space station without crew on board and then returned to Earth six days later. Although the 2022 flight test was completed by a different Starliner vehicle, it clearly demonstrated the ability of the program's flight software to autonomously dock and return to Earth. Boeing did not respond to a media query about why this capability was removed for the crew flight test.

It is not clear what change Boeing officials made to the vehicle or its software in the two years prior to the launch of Wilmore and Williams. It is possible that the crew has to manually press an undock button in the spacecraft, or the purely autonomous software was removed from coding on board Starliner to simplify its software package. Regardless, sources described the process to update the software on Starliner as "non-trivial" and "significant," and that it could take up to four weeks. This is what is driving the delay to launch Crew 9 later next month.

Edited August 5 by Captainant

[atomheartbevo 89295]

 

https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106878.pdf

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to build a sustained human lunar presence and ultimately travel to Mars through a series of missions known as Artemis. For Artemis IV, the agency is developing the Gateway—the first space station planned to orbit the moon. NASA committed to launching the Gateway initial capability by December 2027 at a cost of $5.3 billion. The launch will include the first components of the Gateway—the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO)
…

The Gateway program’s projects—including PPE and HALO—made varying degrees of progress over the last year. However, the PPE and HALO projects face several significant challenges. For example, their combined mass is greater than their mass target. Mass is one of many factors that the program considers in its overall design. If they cannot meet their mass target, it may affect their ability to reach the correct lunar orbit. The program has not yet documented an overall mass management plan, which would describe the program’s mass reduction approach and priorities for key trade-off decisions. Documenting and communicating this plan will help to ensure that the program and its projects agree on how to address the mass challenge.….…

..

According to Gateway program officials, stack controllability is the biggest constraint that the SAO and the Gateway program have discussed for future missions. As previously noted, if NASA decides to allow large, heavier visiting vehicles to dock with the Gateway, it affects the PPE’s ability to control the stack. The program will need to reconsider the Gateway’s mass capability calculations, including the size of the additional vehicle and its center of gravity, as NASA makes these decisions. In the case of a future Mars transit vehicle, officials said there are no designs currently mature enough for the Gateway program to determine how it will handle stack controllability. Officials said they would need to make adaptations on a case-by-case basis.
..

The Gateway program plans to launch the PPE and HALO together in 2027, in about 3 years. Between now and then, the projects will go through the riskiest phase of development—integration and test. Before they do so, the Gateway program will have an opportunity to assess its mission design and schedule at its planned September 2024 critical design-informed synchronization review. Addressing known risks and understanding their effect on the program is an important part of this process. The PPE and HALO projects have several significant challenges to overcome and risks to mitigate as they enter the integration and test phase, including reducing their mass to within their allocations. The program and its projects have plans to address some of these challenges prior to the review, such as conducting analyses related to stack controllability. However, the PPE and HALO projects are at the point where they are building hardware, and the program has not yet documented how to address their mass overages. As a result, NASA is at risk of building hardware that could need significant redesigns that would increase costs and delay schedule. Documenting a mass management plan and ensuring that all relevant parties can make timely decisions in alignment with that plan would be a key step for the program to ensure it has an executable mission design.
….

TLDR: The Gateway is past the point of redesign and large spacecraft can’t visit it or they’ll screw up its orbit.

NASA:

[Hook1997 5256]

http://Could Starliner astronauts return on a different craft? NASA eyes 2025 plan with SpaceX If the Starliner is ultimately deemed unsafe, NASA astronauts Barry "Butch" Wilmore and Sunita "Suni" Williams may instead come home in February aboard a SpaceX vehicle.

Damn, now they may not come back until next year.  

[locodos 5326]

On 8/3/2024 at 9:39 AM, BamaATL said:

Boeing, once a great American company, is really at a crossroads in it's entirely.  It's gone from being one of, if not the most reputable company in the world to being a maker of junk in no small part due the clowns from Wall Street Mcdonnell Douglas taking it over.  I don't think the company as it exists can continue, and will require being broken up (something that by the way should have been done thru anti trust, but I digress).  Ultimately, this is what happens when the financial dickheads from Wall Street Mcdonnell Douglas enter the corner offices one portion of a market.  

If I were an Astronaut stuck up there, no way in hell I'm trusting that thing.  

fify

 

Edited August 7 by locodos

[deft 6761]

Let’s have it out with the Boeing bloodletting already

[atomheartbevo 89295]

2 hours ago, deft said:

Let’s have it out with the Boeing bloodletting already

Maybe the Boeing CEO will start tweeting out Bible verses like Intel’s CEO.

[UTexasFight 9313]

8 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

http://Could Starliner astronauts return on a different craft? NASA eyes 2025 plan with SpaceX If the Starliner is ultimately deemed unsafe, NASA astronauts Barry "Butch" Wilmore and Sunita "Suni" Williams may instead come home in February aboard a SpaceX vehicle.

Damn, now they may not come back until next year.  

If you’re trapped on the space station until next year, you get a free pass on Christmas shopping right?

if so,

[BamaATL 16592]

29 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

If you’re trapped on the space station until next year, you get a free pass on Christmas shopping right?

if so,

Just recently a group of 4 volunteers emerged from a 360 day Mars simulation.  Just imagine, if they'd been on a starliner flight they'd be nearly 1/6 of the time there for real.  

[Captainant 27239]

I like Scott Manley's stuff and he gives a good level recap of the recent NASA announcements around Starliner 

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10063]

17 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

http://Could Starliner astronauts return on a different craft? NASA eyes 2025 plan with SpaceX If the Starliner is ultimately deemed unsafe, NASA astronauts Barry "Butch" Wilmore and Sunita "Suni" Williams may instead come home in February aboard a SpaceX vehicle.

Damn, now they may not come back until next year.  

I don't know how Boeing continues to get future space funding after this.  Way to many failures stacked up at this point. I'm for taking their allotment and spreading across a bunch of startups.

[Stella Link 534]

17 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

http://Could Starliner astronauts return on a different craft? NASA eyes 2025 plan with SpaceX If the Starliner is ultimately deemed unsafe, NASA astronauts Barry "Butch" Wilmore and Sunita "Suni" Williams may instead come home in February aboard a SpaceX vehicle.

Damn, now they may not come back until next year.  

Gilligan says Hi....

[High Plains Drifter 10961]

On 8/4/2024 at 9:26 AM, BamaATL said:

That's probably true, the dangers of working with one company, in particular if it is private, is that you are potentially subject to the whims of one man.  Blue Origin is well behind on this, and even then, again, subject to the potential whims of another asshole.  

 

Isn't Bezos/Blue Origin focused more on "space tourism" than actual space flight?

"Space Tourism" meaning "lets take rich people up to a height of 62 miles, or whatever is considered the edge of space, and let them experience free fall for a few minutes and call that 'space flight'"?

[BamaATL 16592]

1 hour ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Isn't Bezos/Blue Origin focused more on "space tourism" than actual space flight?

"Space Tourism" meaning "lets take rich people up to a height of 62 miles, or whatever is considered the edge of space, and let them experience free fall for a few minutes and call that 'space flight'"?

No, they aren't they are involved with contracts with Artemis, and it's been a while since I've read up on it, but while the new Shephard rocket is tourism, it's next iteration is the new Glenn, designed to directly compete with Space X's dragon.  

[Vegas64 655]

2 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Isn't Bezos/Blue Origin focused more on "space tourism" than actual space flight?

"Space Tourism" meaning "lets take rich people up to a height of 62 miles, or whatever is considered the edge of space, and let them experience free fall for a few minutes and call that 'space flight'"?

Hey I saw that Dude Perfect post too!

[Captainant 27239]

2 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

Isn't Bezos/Blue Origin focused more on "space tourism" than actual space flight?

 

Blue Origin is producing the BE-4 engine for the Vulkan Centaur launch vehicle out of ULA. So they're actually producing some hardware, it even had a successful launch earlier in January

[Captainant 27239]

Pretty good interview with Eric Berger (of Space City Weather and Space reporting fame) about his "feel" on what's been happening and his comparisons with previous "dynamic" astronaut flights. 

Berger sums up the dilemma pretty succinctly towards the end: "I do think the chances are if they were to come home in Starliner they would undock, maybe experience some minor problems, but it would probably be just fine. But on the off-chance it's not, you've killed two people."

[Nice Guy Eddie 13386]

New Chinese rocket breaks up into 700+ pieces in orbit. I assume this isn't good.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/china-rocket-stage-orbital-debris/index.html

Quote

It is believed that the rocket broke apart at 503 miles (810 kilometers) above Earth’s surface, and the debris poses “a significant hazard to (low-Earth orbit) constellations” below 497 miles (800 kilometers) altitude, according to Slingshot.

For reference, the International Space Station orbits about 254 miles (408 kilometers) above the Earth.

low earth orbit will eventually will (has?) become the tragedy of the commons. We will eventually not be able to send manned missions into space. And then it will become less and less important to prevent space debris, leading to an even worse mess.

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

boeing update teleconference on now

 

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

"no major announcements"

except next week they will have a meeting to decide if butch and sunny are going home in starliner

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

technical authority governance model

3 independent elements

all 3 have to agree

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

if they don't return on starliner they will have 8 months on orbit

[Captainant 27239]

6 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

"no major announcements"

except next week they will have a meeting to decide if butch and sunny are going home in starliner

 

4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

technical authority governance model

3 independent elements

all 3 have to agree

 

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

if they don't return on starliner they will have 8 months on orbit

this is all stuff we've known through other reporting for some time. If Butch and Sunny stay up they'll be replacing two crew who've been training for a year or so for their planned mission and maintenance. It'll be a load of learning on the fly, but they're a couple of the most veteran astronauts NASA has 

[High Plains Drifter 10961]

On 8/9/2024 at 12:15 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

New Chinese rocket breaks up into 700+ pieces in orbit. I assume this isn't good.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/china-rocket-stage-orbital-debris/index.html

low earth orbit will eventually will (has?) become the tragedy of the commons. We will eventually not be able to send manned missions into space. And then it will become less and less important to prevent space debris, leading to an even worse mess.

 

I saw this in the movie "Gravity"

 

 

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

cbs reporter asks if crew comes home on spacex is the starliner mission classified as a mishap

?bowersox? answered no it's not a mishap

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

they really don't want to answer some of these questions

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

nyt asks what is acceptable risk for a crewed starliner return - 5 different answers - but all good answers

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

flight-readiness review mid-mission

bowersox thought it was first time ever done this

but 2 others said the first crew dragon test had that motion just under a different name

Edited August 14 by Hagbard Celine

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

biggest question is a successful de-orbit burn

it's Ironman One

 

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

they can't ride home in a dragon in boeing suits

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

they have to wait for Crew 9 to bring up spacex suits

oooh someone asking about challenger and columbia and how this process is playing out

[atomheartbevo 89295]

42 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

if they don't return on starliner they will have 8 months on orbit

That's a lot of zero-g shenanigans.

39 minutes ago, Captainant said:

this is all stuff we've known through other reporting for some time. If Butch and Sunny stay up they'll be replacing two crew who've been training for a year or so for their planned mission and maintenance. It'll be a load of learning on the fly, but they're a couple of the most veteran astronauts NASA has 

Plus there's a YouTube video for everything.

[Captainant 27239]

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-acknowledges-it-cannot-quantify-risk-of-starliner-propulsion-issues/

Tldr: NASA and Boeing still cannot definitively identify the cause of the failure and that uncertainty does not pair well with manned spaceflight. Whoopsie poopsie 

[Hagbard Celine 10614]

On 8/14/2024 at 12:16 PM, Captainant said:

this is all stuff we've known through other reporting for some time. If Butch and Sunny stay up they'll be replacing two crew who've been training for a year or so for their planned mission and maintenance. It'll be a load of learning on the fly, but they're a couple of the most veteran astronauts NASA has 

"we" may have known "this stuff" for some time, but the reality of having to do it, and the implications for boeing, have been soft-pedaled all summer, and next week is the go-no-go on a crewed return of the vehicle....  and if they have to go home on spacex then boeing is toast..... the msm smells fear in the city.....

https://time.com/7011415/nasa-boeing-starliner-astronauts-press-conference/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

[Blotto 23352]

I just read up on the upcoming SpaceX crewed launch. Seems far riskier than any of the other crewed missions. I think SpaceX has a lot going for it, but the pace they are pushing some of this shit is incredible to me. Why cant Elon go up in this one? Launch set for on or after Aug 26th.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/19/science/spacex-polaris-dawn-jared-isaacman-spacewalk/index.html

Quote

Isaacman, Menon, Gillis and Poteet will spend five days aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule that will soar to altitudes higher than any human has traveled since NASA’s Apollo program ended in the 1970s. Their orbital path will extend high enough to plunge the vehicle and crew into a radiation belt, adding another element of peril to the already treacherous experience of spaceflight.

This crew of private citizens will also open the hatch of their spacecraft and expose themselves to the vacuum of space, marking the first time such a feat has been attempted by non-government astronauts. During this endeavor, the astronauts will be protected solely by brand-new Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) suits, which SpaceX designed and developed in just two and a half years.

[BamaATL 16592]

New Glenn Update - for those interested

 

[WithoutAClue 15117]

[CycleTex87 2951]

I wonder about the current risk management and acceptance level of risk at NASA and how it's changed over time.  There have been three high profile accidents with fatalities (Apollo 1, Challenger, Columbia) in the history of NASA, and NASA have become more risk averse over time.  Clearly priorities and drivers have changed over time.  We're not currently in a space race, at least not at the breakneck level that we were in the 60's, so there's not the pressure to win.  I'm just not sure that they can get all the pieces of the Artemis program to the level of acceptable risk and cost to finish that mission, in a timeline that is acceptable to the taxpayers.  The ISS will deorbit in the next decade or so, and I wonder about manned spaceflight after that.  

Risk, cost, time - pick two.  

[pearlandhorn 3273]

17 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

I wonder about the current risk management and acceptance level of risk at NASA and how it's changed over time.  There have been three high profile accidents with fatalities (Apollo 1, Challenger, Columbia) in the history of NASA, and NASA have become more risk averse over time.  Clearly priorities and drivers have changed over time.  We're not currently in a space race, at least not at the breakneck level that we were in the 60's, so there's not the pressure to win.  I'm just not sure that they can get all the pieces of the Artemis program to the level of acceptable risk and cost to finish that mission, in a timeline that is acceptable to the taxpayers.  The ISS will deorbit in the next decade or so, and I wonder about manned spaceflight after that.  

Risk, cost, time - pick two.  

ISS is scheduled to be decommissioned in the next 6 years and there are approximately 10 companies working on a private replacement for the ISS.

NASA is going to get all the pieces of the Artemis program to an acceptable level of risk and cost to finish the mission on a decent timeline.  There may be some delays due to the scrapping of their own suits for the Artemis mission (and Collins Aerospace dropping out of their suit contract with NASA - see link below), but it will happen within a reasonable timeframe but not due to cost.  NASA always seems to have a contingency plan.

Manned spaceflight will continue after the decommissioning of the ISS.  It will be privatized (thankfully) and become cheaper as more companies develop new stations.

https://spacenews.com/collins-aerospace-pulls-back-from-nasa-spacesuit-contract/

Edited August 20 by pearlandhorn

[Captainant 27239]

5 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

NASA is going to get all the pieces of the Artemis program to an acceptable level of risk and cost to finish the mission on a decent timeline.

I've got some prime beachfront property in Colorado you may be interested in

[Captain Ron 12759]

On 8/19/2024 at 12:05 PM, Blotto said:

I just read up on the upcoming SpaceX crewed launch. Seems far riskier than any of the other crewed missions. I think SpaceX has a lot going for it, but the pace they are pushing some of this shit is incredible to me. Why cant Elon go up in this one? Launch set for on or after Aug 26th.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/19/science/spacex-polaris-dawn-jared-isaacman-spacewalk/index.html

Yeah, this seems to have a high degree of risk that IMHO is unnecessary. I'm not sure why they would not try a test run of this without a crew and then run the mission with a crew?

If anyone can pull it off, it would be SpaceX, but there are so many things that can go wrong with this - you would think they would try to minimize the risk before putting lives at risk.