Jump to content

2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
in Baseball

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 41.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • tx 3 putt

    3624

  • UTexasFight

    2380

  • Scraps

    2293

  • WBT

    1999

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

SEC
SEC

My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

Rustic Horn
Rustic Horn
Mez2
Mez2

Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

Posted Images

henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,191

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Limp Brisket said:

If Altuve goes on IL what does it mean in terms of a AAA bring up?  

aaa bring up?  no idea.

current lineup config might mean more tyler white at first with yuli playing 2nd.

that or a steady diet of pt for aledmys, which isn't the end of the world.

i would just bring up the best option for a pinch-hitter, regardless of position.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,191

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mez2 said:

I'm following this thread watching the pokemon movie, not sure how to interpret this. 

don't worry, i'm referring to early 2017.

i remember saying on here (or shaggy) that i wanted to trade for justin wilson and verlander, because i thought verlander might have something left in the tank if he was energized by playing for a contender.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10,973

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WBT said:

Nice outing for JV.  It's good to see him get through a game without giving up a HR. 

Ho-hum another scoreless inning for Pressly.  When does the baseball media start putting him on Hershiser watch?

He’s only 2/3 of the way to Hershiser.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,515

Posted
Posted

The Houston Astros over the last two full season have racked up 204 wins and a World Series trophy. Given that recent history, their intact core, targeted additions, and collection of ready-now prospects, it's not a surprise that the Astros are presently atop the AL West standings.
At 23-15, Houston is playing at a 98-win pace, and -- tidily enough -- the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) gives them a 98 percent chance of winning the division for a third straight year. Impressive as that is, it really undersells how good the Astros have been thus far in 2019. That's the case for a couple of reasons. To wit ...
They've had a tough schedule
In terms of opponents' average winning percentage, the Astros presently check in at .525, which is toughest in the American League by a significant margin (the Rangers are next at .510). That's almost like playing the 2018 Cardinals every game. As well, Houston to date has played 21 of 38 games on the road. So they've played .605 ball and run up a plus-49 run differential despite that tough docket.
The good news for Houston is that going forward things figure to get easier. In addition to playing the majority of their games at home the rest of the way, that opponents' average winning percentage drops to .472 (subject to change depending on relevant results, of course). That's a bit like playing the 2018 Mets every game.
They've played better than their record
Here's the real story. At an underlying level, the Astros have played better than their already very good 23-15 mark. We know this thanks to the BaseRuns system available at Fangraphs. BaseRuns attempts to model a team's run-scoring and run-prevention capabilities at the granular level -- i.e., on a plate-appearance-by-plate-appearance basis and with the effects of hit "sequencing" removed. Basically, it's a measure of how good a team is at controlling the fundamental outcomes of the batter-pitcher encounter. It yields what a team's record should be based on core skills. It's also generally a better predictor of how a team will fare going forward than the team's actual record is.
As for the Astros, they presently have a BaseRuns record of 27-11, which is four games better than their actual record. It's also the best mark in all of baseball by a substantial three-game margin over the Dodgers. To a large extent, this phenomenon can be explained by how hard the Astros are hitting the baseball


wRC+ is an advanced metric that measures all phases of production at the plate and adjusts them for ballpark and league environments. The higher the wRC+, the better from the standpoint of the offense. wRC+ is scaled so that a mark of 100 reflects a league-average hitter or offense. The 2019 Astros are thus far walking with the gods, as you see above. As a team, they're batting .276/.350/.491, while the AL as a whole is at .246/.321/.422. Bear in mind, of course, that the Astros' slash line is lifting up that league average.
Despite leading the league in OPS and OPS+ by a big gap, the Astros rank "just" fourth in the AL in runs per game. That, in turn, is explained by the fact that the Astros have seen their numbers drop this season with runners in scoring position, and that's almost certainly not going to last.
Look, you already thought of the Astros as one of the true power teams in MLB this season, and the fact that they've been a bit unlucky thus far shouldn't change much. Moving ahead through the regular season, though, don't be surprised if Houston finds a higher level -- a level that's been buried under some noise thus far -- and enters October as prohibitive World Series favorites.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,315

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The Houston Astros over the last two full season have racked up 204 wins and a World Series trophy. Given that recent history, their intact core, targeted additions, and collection of ready-now prospects, it's not a surprise that the Astros are presently atop the AL West standings.
At 23-15, Houston is playing at a 98-win pace, and -- tidily enough -- the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) gives them a 98 percent chance of winning the division for a third straight year. Impressive as that is, it really undersells how good the Astros have been thus far in 2019. That's the case for a couple of reasons. To wit ...
They've had a tough schedule
In terms of opponents' average winning percentage, the Astros presently check in at .525, which is toughest in the American League by a significant margin (the Rangers are next at .510). That's almost like playing the 2018 Cardinals every game. As well, Houston to date has played 21 of 38 games on the road. So they've played .605 ball and run up a plus-49 run differential despite that tough docket.
The good news for Houston is that going forward things figure to get easier. In addition to playing the majority of their games at home the rest of the way, that opponents' average winning percentage drops to .472 (subject to change depending on relevant results, of course). That's a bit like playing the 2018 Mets every game.
They've played better than their record
Here's the real story. At an underlying level, the Astros have played better than their already very good 23-15 mark. We know this thanks to the BaseRuns system available at Fangraphs. BaseRuns attempts to model a team's run-scoring and run-prevention capabilities at the granular level -- i.e., on a plate-appearance-by-plate-appearance basis and with the effects of hit "sequencing" removed. Basically, it's a measure of how good a team is at controlling the fundamental outcomes of the batter-pitcher encounter. It yields what a team's record should be based on core skills. It's also generally a better predictor of how a team will fare going forward than the team's actual record is.
As for the Astros, they presently have a BaseRuns record of 27-11, which is four games better than their actual record. It's also the best mark in all of baseball by a substantial three-game margin over the Dodgers. To a large extent, this phenomenon can be explained by how hard the Astros are hitting the baseball


wRC+ is an advanced metric that measures all phases of production at the plate and adjusts them for ballpark and league environments. The higher the wRC+, the better from the standpoint of the offense. wRC+ is scaled so that a mark of 100 reflects a league-average hitter or offense. The 2019 Astros are thus far walking with the gods, as you see above. As a team, they're batting .276/.350/.491, while the AL as a whole is at .246/.321/.422. Bear in mind, of course, that the Astros' slash line is lifting up that league average.
Despite leading the league in OPS and OPS+ by a big gap, the Astros rank "just" fourth in the AL in runs per game. That, in turn, is explained by the fact that the Astros have seen their numbers drop this season with runners in scoring position, and that's almost certainly not going to last.
Look, you already thought of the Astros as one of the true power teams in MLB this season, and the fact that they've been a bit unlucky thus far shouldn't change much. Moving ahead through the regular season, though, don't be surprised if Houston finds a higher level -- a level that's been buried under some noise thus far -- and enters October as prohibitive World Series favorites.

...plus, arguably the best offensive player hasn't been himself yet. 

That 129 wRC+ is likely to come down (Springer/Bregman/Brantley/Correa/Altuve aren't likely to all hit 35+ HR, Reddick, Marisnick and Chirinos are going to slow down, etc.), but this offense is prolific. I guess that's why we don't really have a spot for an OF/DH who is hitting .398/.489/.856 in AAA. 

Now, go get Bumgarner and let's win the whole fuckin' thing. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mez2

Mez2 4,023

Posted
Posted

One of our more overlooked things I think, thus far, is the production we're getting outta Reddick and to a lesser degree, Jake. Going onto the season the were serious grumblings about trading Reddick to make room for tucker. Will the  high level production last,  I don't know,  probably not, but depth is really important in winning a division, and we have it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2,970

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

I know it won’t happen but Altuve needs a short IR visit. He needs a reset on this season 

Altuve isn’t running well.  His hamstrings have been balky all season. Needs to get healthy.  This hitting slump carries over from the end of last year when he was on one leg. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,199

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Mez2 said:

One of our more overlooked things I think, thus far, is the production we're getting outta Reddick and to a lesser degree, Jake.

Exactly like 2017 except switching Marwin for Uncle Mike.  I said preseason the offense was going to have to step it up this year and be more like the 2017 offense than the 2018 version.  Thankfully they are doing just that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,515

Posted
Posted
Altuve isn’t running well.  His hamstrings have been balky all season. Needs to get healthy.  This hitting slump carries over from the end of last year when he was on one leg. 

Do you have any corroboration for this or are you just making shit up?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2,970

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:


Do you have any corroboration for this or are you just making shit up?

I watch all the games. This is is the second time this season he will miss some time due to hamstring issues. On his run to first base last night he is running stiff legged, even if he beat the throw.  That’s all the corroboration I need.  He’s battling .238, when his lifetime average is well over .300.  What more do you need?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2,970

Posted
Posted

I will say this, we as fans think “2019 is a new season, he (Altuve) had knee surgery following last season, so he’s good to go now”.  I had arthroscopic knee surgery a few years ago, and it was more than a year before I was fully back up to speed.  Yes, I know I don’t have a professional medical staff looking at me every day but still, total recovery is more than a couple of months. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,515

Posted
Posted
I watch all the games. This is is the second time this season he will miss some time due to hamstring issues. On his run to first base last night he is running stiff legged, even if he beat the throw.  That’s all the corroboration I need.  He’s battling .238, when his lifetime average is well over .300.  What more do you need?

Let’s start with the fact that he’s played in all 39 games this season. Secondly , he was hitting .316 through the 1st 19 games. I guess the carryover effect was a delayed reaction.

He’s definitely having a sub par season so far but that’s just baseball, not health.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...