2019 Houston Astros Thread

[kevwun 15797]

Going to a Hooks game in July, I hope he's still there.

[tx 3 putt 77060]

I’m not worried about it. Whitley is still young and has had injury issues his two minor league seasons. Also, we are in no rush. This also factors in other young arms not getting a chance at the mlb level. 

folty was an all star and was on that track as an astro imo 

Mchugh, peacock, musgrove (to just name a few) were all developed in our system. McHugh and peacock are #3 starters on any other team

the uncle Charlie signing was laughed about and this staff turned him into a #2 starter for a playoff contending team

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by tx 3 putt

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

Springer, Brantley, Reddick and Yuli are all scheduled to become FAs after next season. 

Alvarez and Beer are both probably best suited to be DH/1B...which is OK because it looks like there will be room and need for both. Maybe you can play one of them in the OF if you have a good CF. (It will be interesting to see what happens with Yuli next season - seems hard to justify playing a replacement-level 1B over Alvarez and/or Beer a year from now, assuming they stay healthy and keep performing.)

Maybe we will still extend Springer, but I'm afraid that ship may have sailed. But the hope is that Alvarez, Tucker and Beer step in and take the baton by then to fill 3 of those spots alongside Altuve, Bregman and another year of Correa. 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

You extend springer if the money matches up, he’s the heart of this clubhouse 

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

28 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Random Astros thought...

At what point do we become concerned with the organization's (in)ability to draft/sign and develop starting pitchers? Unless I am forgetting someone, Keuchel is the last guy that the team drafted and turned into a good MLB starter. He was drafted a decade ago. 

Obviously Whitley and Bukauskas are very good prospects...but they've both been terrible so far in 2019 and don't seem anywhere close to contributing. There was Appel (though in fairness, the Phillies couldn't do anything with him either). Martes was acquired at a very young age, and he seems less and less likely to be a player each year. Folty is a pretty good pitcher with ATL, maybe he would have done just as well here. 

Luckily, the FO is good at getting guys like Peacock, McHugh, Morton, etc. and getting more out of them at the big-league level than they had shown in previous stops - so that's good. But at some point it would be nice to develop a guy internally. Maybe Corbin Martin can stick. 

Maybe it is coincidental - but it just seems strange that the org is great at getting the most out of guys at the big-league level, but appears to underperform in terms of developing pitchers in the minors. 

 

Lance McCullers Jr. ring a bell?

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Lance McCullers Jr. ring a bell?

Yup - good call. So, 2 in 10 years. 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Lance McCullers Jr. ring a bell?

With the good start to the season, easy to forget we replaced 3 starters from the two very successful previous seasons.

this staff didn’t just ‘luck’ into being good this season 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

Vincent Velazquez was another high quality young arm we moved

[tx 3 putt 77060]

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

So is it Martin/Stubbs tonight?  

This may be a nightmare 

Mayfield / white / kemp / Stubbs / fisher 

Martin, staring. Rodgers first guy out of the bullpen. Just go full blown AAA on the cubs tonight !!!!

[Planet Houston 4930]

Bregs and Brantley got this, don't worry.

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

22 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Vincent Velazquez was another high quality young arm we moved

I did think about him...he has a career 4.60 ERA and has been worth about 6 WAR in 5 seasons. He's pretty meh. 

But hard to say what would have happened had he remained an Astro, so I didn't really count him. 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Hank Chinaski

[tx 3 putt 77060]

http://www.astrosfuture.com/2019/05/astros-updated-top-30-prospects-2019/

 

very good break down of the top 30 Astro prospects 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

2 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I did think about him...he has a career 4.60 ERA and has been worth about 6 WAR in 5 seasons. He's pretty meh. 

But hard to say what would have happened had he remained an Astro, so I didn't really count him. 

He’s more of bullpen guy / potential closer, imo

 

[henrygandorf 29192]

40 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Vincent Velazquez was another high quality young arm we moved

we also "developed" a few guys, even if we didn't draft them, that we moved for quality.  names like jarred cosart come to mind.

we had pitchers involved in most of our big deals the last few years, including (shudder) josh hader.

i don't really care if michael feliz sucks now as long as gerrit cole doesn't.

i think whitley can help rewrite the narrative.  martin has plenty of time to get in gear as well.

[runthebone 8013]

We Rule 5 developed Josh Fields into Yordan Alvarez, which is pretty sweet, then we hit back-to-back home runs off of him in Game 2.

[Jshep34 2316]

Amazing the talent astros have. Think back to 15 years players who were cant miss players.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[Mez2 4023]

I was excited when we had Giovanni Meier,  lol 

[UTexasFight 9498]

We discounting James in all of this? Or going to give all of that credit to the c-pap machine?

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

16 minutes ago, runthebone said:

We Rule 5 developed Josh Fields into Yordan Alvarez, which is pretty sweet, then we hit back-to-back home runs off of him in Game 2.

Haha, yes. Yeah, the FO has done a good job of getting value from pitching prospects (Cosart got us Jake, Fields got us Alvarez, Folty got us Gattis, let's not mention the Brewers trade).

Just strange that we've developed only 2 good starting pitchers in 10 years. 

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

6 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

We discounting James in all of this? Or going to give all of that credit to the c-pap machine?

James hasn't been good yet. He's in that Martin category of wait-and-see. If he keeps walking 5 batters per 9 IP, he's not likely to be successful.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Hank Chinaski

[UTexasFight 9498]

So is it Martin/Stubbs tonight?  
This may be a nightmare 

At least they’ve worked together 4-5 times for Round Rock so far this year.


But yeah, not too optimistic with Lester on the mound.

[rvm96 1643]

Bryan Abreu is really looking like something special. The Astros obviously believe it because they put him on their 40 man roster when he was at the A+ level. 

[Fozzz 152]

Abreu was pretty dicey his first few appearances in Corpus but he seems to have settled down a little.  I think Urquidy, Ivey, Conine, Collado, Mushinski, and Hansen have been main pitching standouts so far this season.  I would like to see what Urquidy can do in September if he's not traded by the deadline.

[tx 3 putt 77060]

Also, don’t discount how this staff helped / improved Verlander 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

Per twitter thickie thon : 

 

The Astros have 107 games left in the regular season. 27 of them are against teams currently above .500 (Cubs - 2, A's - 14, Brewers - 4, Yankees - 4, Rays - 3)

[henrygandorf 29192]

3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Haha, yes. Yeah, the FO has done a good job of getting value from pitching prospects (Cosart got us Jake, Fields got us Alvarez, Folty got us Gattis, let's not mention the Brewers trade).

Just strange that we've developed only 2 good starting pitchers in 10 years. 

i agree that it's "strange" but i don't think i'd take it any further.  at this point, it may just be an anomaly.  i have no idea what other teams look like using the same criteria.

i know we have certain leanings towards who we draft (college hitters vs hs pitchers, etc).  obviously they have a way of tracking which has more probability for future mlb success.  do we have any numbers from the last 6-8 years of who we draft in the top 10 rounds or so?

i wonder if our ability to transform some pitchers makes us more likely to continue to take that approach, while we try to target "safe" hitting prospects in the draft. 

[henrygandorf 29192]

3 hours ago, Jshep34 said:

Amazing the talent astros have. Think back to 15 years players who were cant miss players.
 

many people forget this - but back from 2002-2012 or so, it wasn't [just] about making shitty draft picks, it was about signing the guys we picked.  we had an absurdly low number of top 10 draft picks sign with us over a ~10 year period.  hard to build a winner when you're pulling that crap.

now it seems we have too much depth, and whattyaknow, we're able to make big trades.

[Rimbo 25976]

The Astros are Ludicrous.

Spoiler

by Ben Clemens

May 28, 2019

Friend, you’re a baseball fan. You don’t need me to tell you that the Astros are great, because you already know it. You probably know they’re playing .650 baseball so far this year. If you look at their run differential, you might notice that their Pythagorean record is actually better than their record — they “should” have one more win based on their run differential. Heck, if you look at BaseRuns standings, which look at underlying production rather than runs, they “should” have three more wins. Their offensive and defensive statistics work out to a projected .700 winning percentage. That’s a 113-win pace for a full season, and playing well enough to have a 113-win season with neutral luck is outrageous.

You also don’t need me to tell you that the Astros offense is great. Their team batting line so far this year is .275/.349/.488, good for a 126 wRC+. If the entire Astros offense were a player, they’d be a top-60 hitter in all of baseball. Not the Astros starters. Not qualifying Astros batters. The entire team, backup catchers and minor league call-ups and all, is producing slightly better than Ronald Acuna this year. Ronald Acuna signed a $100 million contract this year and people protested how underpaid he is. Again, the entire Astros team is hitting like that.

 

The thing is, though, you also already knew that. Astros offense superlatives and near-superlatives are endless. They strike out less than any team but the Angels. They hit for more power than any team other than the Twins. They get on base more than any team in baseball. In a stadium that doesn’t help offense, they’re scoring 5.2 runs a game, with underlying statistics that look like they should be scoring 5.5. They’re hitting for the highest batting average in baseball and simultaneously have the third-most home runs, all without having played the Orioles. Average or power? Porque no los dos?

Yes, finding new and interesting things to say about the Astros offense is challenging. I’m going to try, though. One of the strengths of this Astros team is their incredible star power. George Springer is vying with Mike Trout for the most WAR in the American League, with a 172 wRC+ that’s sixth in baseball. Alex Bregman is replicating his breakout 2018 — a 152 wRC+ with more walks than strikeouts. He’s running a BABIP of .237 despite an xBABIP of .316 — he could actually be due for some positive regression! Michael Brantley has turned the Astros’ one lineup hole from 2018, left field, into a point of strength. He’s striking out a what-are-you-talking-about 9.5% of the time while hitting for power on his way to a 144 wRC+.

Those three players have been worth a combined seven wins above replacement. They have a collective 156 wRC+. The only teams with a better-hitting top three (minimum 100 PA per batter) are the Dodgers and the Cubs (the Pirates are a close fourth). The Astros’ stars, in other words, are the envy of nearly all of baseball. As an aside, the best three Marlins batters have put up a cumulative 99 wRC+. What’s an article about a great offense without a fun fact about the inverse?

 

That’s all well and good — the cream of the Astro crop is incredible. You probably knew that, because all three players are drawing headlines. Great, cool, amazing. What you might not know, though, is that the rest of the offense is incredible as well. Think of it this way: George Springer just went on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain. How will the Astros offense fare without him? Well, the rest of their team has combined for a 122 wRC+ this year, which would be the second-best batting team in the majors, behind only the equally hot Twins.

 

We can take this further. Let’s get rid of Bregman as well. Without Bregman and Springer, the Astros would have a 116 wRC+, good for the fifth-best non-pitcher wRC+. Two MVP candidates down, the Astros are nipping at the Cubs’ heels for fourth-best offense in baseball. Heck, let’s go further and take out Brantley. With all three of the Astros’ top trio removed (and again, they’re one of the best groups in baseball), the remaining Astros have compiled a 112 wRC+ this year. That batting line would be fifth-best in baseball, just ahead of the Braves. The Braves have a dynamic offense, with sensational young talent backed by Freddie Freeman. That’s how good the Astros are after you get rid of three MVP candidates. If that doesn’t make much sense to you, well — good. It’s outrageous!

We can go further. The weighted wRC+ of the Astros’ 4th-6th best hitters (Carlos Correa, Jake Marisnick, and Robinson Chirinos) is 137. Want to replace Marisnick’s small sample with a larger sample of a worse batting line from Josh Reddick? It’s still 133. As you might expect, this group of 4th-6th offensive options is the best such group in baseball. The Rangers’ trio of Logan Forsythe (not as washed up as I expected), Elvis Andrus, and Danny Santana are within striking distance at a 127 wRC+, but no one is particularly close to matching the Astros’ trio. Heck, this Astros group is better than 15 other teams’ top three hitters, even if you use the lower-wRC+ Reddick group. The Astros’ mid-tier guys are simply unlucky — they’d be the best three guys on plenty of teams.

Let’s get really crazy now. Let’s exclude the six best hitters from the Astro lineup. I’m cutting Reddick out here in the interest of making the remaining lineup score as poorly as possible. With none of their top six hitters, the Astros have a remaining team wRC+ of 98. The back half of the team, the part that is largely comprised of fifth outfielders and utility infielders and backup catchers, is almost as good at batting as the league as a whole.

 

If that sounds absurd, it’s because it is. There’s an MVP candidate having a so-so year in this group (Jose Altuve and his 117 wRC+), which is only notable because it’s not one of the best eight batting lines on the team. Aledmys Diaz has a 118 wRC+, which would rank among the top 10 second basemen in baseball if he could get on the field enough to qualify. Heck, even Tony Kemp’s 86 wRC+ isn’t too bad — it’s certifiably great for a fifth outfielder, but it’s not even embarrassing for the worst regular starter on a team, which Kemp most emphatically is not.

How stacked is this Astros team? If the top six Astros weren’t allowed to bat and instead of replacing them with minor leaguers, the team filled in the missing plate appearances with the remaining players’ 2019 lines, the team would project to score roughly 4.5 runs a game after accounting for park factors. With the team’s great pitching (3.53 runs per game allowed), their Pythagorean winning percentage would be .611. The hobbled Astros would have the fifth-best Pythagorean winning percentage in baseball. Want it in BaseRuns? That still works out to a .610 expected winning percentage, fourth-best in baseball.

Now, in reality, this is more of a fun fact about the Astros pitching staff than one about their hitters. Replace the historically dominant Astros offense with a sub-100 wRC+ bunch, and the team would still be one of the best in baseball. Their pitching is just that good. But it’s also an Astros offense fun fact because that 100-ish wRC+ team just so happens to be the Astros’ offense after subtracting out their six best hitters in 2019.

Just to drive the point home, here’s a table of the Astros offense, only subtracting out their x best hitters. The distance you have to go down the line to make a bad team is staggering. The Astros minus their top nine hitters would have the same wRC+ as the Indians this year!

 

Astros Offense, With Missing Persons

No. of Hitters Removed	Remaining wRC+
1	122
2	116
3	112
4	106
5	103
6	98
7	92
8	88
9	77

The 2019 Astros are an exercise in baseball absurdity. Their best hitters are as good as any team’s best hitters. Their mid-tier hitters are better than a bunch of other teams’ best hitters. Their worst hitters are league average. If it’s hard to wrap your head around how good this team is, that’s reasonable. Teams don’t bat this well for full seasons. Since 1900, the only team with a better league-adjusted full-season line is the 1927 Yankees, who were literally nicknamed Murderer’s Row. Teams that hit like the Astros are dimly remembered myths, not flesh-and-blood modern concerns. That’s not a comparison you can make in your head, most likely, because it isn’t one I can make in mine.

Getting rid of the good players makes a comparison a little more mentally reasonable. Remove three MVP candidates, and the Astros are still one of the best-hitting teams in baseball. Remove three more of the best hitters in baseball, and the dregs of the team still hit like the A’s or the Nationals. So don’t focus on the aggregate line, the pure statistical absurdity of the 2019 Astros. Focus on how well every part of the Astros lineup is hitting, how their utility infielder hits like your All-Star second baseman. This performance almost certainly won’t keep up, but it’s still amazing to marvel at the extent of their excellence in 2019.

 

[Scraps 13562]

22 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Per twitter thickie thon : 

 

The Astros have 107 games left in the regular season. 27 of them are against teams currently above .500 (Cubs - 2, A's - 14, Brewers - 4, Yankees - 4, Rays - 3)

thickie don....put some respek on it 

[Scraps 13562]

Correa out again....good lord 

Bregman DH....good lord that infield gonna put the E's up tonight 

 

[Mitch Hedberg 2090]

Correa back problems again? 2 games in a row is more than a rest.

[henrygandorf 29192]

10 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Correa out again....good lord 

Bregman DH....good lord that infield gonna put the E's up tonight 

 

imgur>

[henrygandorf 29192]

rotoworld throwing up their hands...

CARLOS CORREA SS, HOUSTON ASTROS

Carlos Correa is out of the Astros' starting lineup for the second straight day on Tuesday.

Correa might be dealing with some sort of physical issue. There should be an update soon from Minute Maid Park, after Astros manager A.J. Hinch addresses the media. Jack Mayfield will play shortstop and bat sixth Tuesday versus the Cubs and left-hander Jon Lester.

[Rip76 4943]

5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

You extend springer if the money matches up, he’s the heart of this clubhouse 

Damn straight.

[TonyTexas 10516]

Did I travel back in time to 2013?

[DaysOff 7951]

It's Hooks night at MMP.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

We would be a pretty great spring training lineup. 

[UTexasFight 9498]

Per twitter thickie thon : 
 
The Astros have 107 games left in the regular season. 27 of them are against teams currently above .500 (Cubs - 2, A's - 14, Brewers - 4, Yankees - 4, Rays - 3)

Yeah, posted the other day that 54% of our remaining games are against the AL West.

In Sept, we wrap up a 2 games series against the Brewers the day after Labor Day.
Then proceed to play the AL West and Royals for 4 weeks.

Considering the rosters expand to 40 on September 1, I get the feeling we’re going to be seeing a lot more of this type of lineup whether everyone is healthy or not

[Mez2 4023]

Fire our strength and conditioning coach

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

31 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

Correa back problems again? 2 games in a row is more than a rest.

I suppose it was only a matter of time before Ripken was back on the shelf - I mean, he made it nearly 2 months without getting hurt again. 

Correa missed 105 games in 2017-2018; he missed 9 games in 2016; tonight will be the 6th he's missed this year. So he's missed 120 games in a 3.33-season span, in his age 21-24 seasons. That's 22% of the games during this period that he's missed, and 2/3 of an entire season of sitting out. 

[TonyTexas 10516]

Uh oh

[maninblack 7974]

petsheadsfallingoff.gif

[TonyTexas 10516]

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

Just now, TonyTexas said:

 

[Scraps 13562]

Any bubble wrap makers on the stock market?  Asking so I can get rich once they start packing all the Stros in it daily.  

[Planet Houston 4930]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

 

With this quote, we should probably start planning their retirement parties.  

[tx 3 putt 77060]

Move Correa to first, less wear and tear on the body ?

[tx 3 putt 77060]

Next man up !!!!!

[HoustonFrog 368]

Move Correa to first, less wear and tear on the body ?

/trade him the moment he has a good 20 game stretch

[Fozzz 152]

1 minute ago, Planet Houston said:

With this quote, we should probably start planning their retirement parties.  

For a second, I thought his quote read "for the rest of their lives" instead of "for the rest of the season."