2019 Houston Astros Thread

[Rimbo 25921]

I'll tell you what, though. This game was important. The way we won ugly with a bunch of AAA players... this team has it.  I don't really remember a game like this last year that made me think we'd go all the way. In 2017, there was that game in Minnesota, when we came back down by what, 8? Scored 11 runs in the 8th inning.

This is like that one, the way we just made a win happen no matter what seemed to go wrong in the game.

[rvm96 1643]

14 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I'll tell you what, though. This game was important. The way we won ugly with a bunch of AAA players... this team has it.  I don't really remember a game like this last year that made me think we'd go all the way. In 2017, there was that game in Minnesota, when we came back down by what, 8? Scored 11 runs in the 8th inning.

This is like that one, the way we just made a win happen no matter what seemed to go wrong in the game.

The 2017 one was down 6. There was this one from September 2018.

 

 

[rvm96 1643]

About 60 games into the season some teams are obviously already sellers and some are very close to that point. Some players I've read that could be on the move that would make sense for Houston are

1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu

3B/DH: Anthony Rendon, Pablo Sandoval

LHR: Brad Hand, Will Smith, Sean Doolittle, Francisco Liriano (reunion?), Tony Watson

RHP: Marcus Stroman, Tanner Roark

LHP: Madison Bumgarner 

[Rimbo 25921]

1 hour ago, rvm96 said:

The 2017 one was down 6. There was this one from September 2018.

 

 

It was the 2017 game, with the 11-run 8th, that I was thinking of.

That 2018 game felt like a fluke. 2017's was something special.

[TonyTexas 10510]

Josh Rojas batted 3 times in the 7th inning for the Express tonight. Don’t see that too often. 

[APMP 688]

Josh Rojas batted 3 times in the 7th inning for the Express tonight. Don’t see that too often. 

Lol at that box score. 24/51 in the game with 9 walks. Looks like a football game broke out with that final score.

[UTexasFight 9432]

9-19
11-5
26-11

Las Vegas seems fun

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

5 hours ago, rvm96 said:

About 60 games into the season some teams are obviously already sellers and some are very close to that point. Some players I've read that could be on the move that would make sense for Houston are

1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu

3B/DH: Anthony Rendon, Pablo Sandoval

LHR: Brad Hand, Will Smith, Sean Doolittle, Francisco Liriano (reunion?), Tony Watson

RHP: Marcus Stroman, Tanner Roark

LHP: Madison Bumgarner 

I don't think the Indians are going to blow it up. They are 2 games back in the wild card standings despite their best player missing the first month of the season, plus they have a lot of games against DET, KC, CHW coming up. I don't think Washington is either, unless the bottom falls out quickly (but they've won 7 of the last 10). 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Hank Chinaski

[1leggedduck 443]

Getting Verlander when we did was like a little girl getting a pony for her birthday. We want another pony. How are the Stros going to follow up that monster pony they went out and got us?

[1leggedduck 443]

Not meaning any disrespect to Brantley, because he's pretty pony-like, too.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

2 minutes ago, 1leggedduck said:

Getting Verlander when we did was like a little girl getting a pony for her birthday. We want another pony. How are the Stros going to follow up that monster pony they went out and got us?

He's available....

[UTexasFight 9432]

Getting Verlander when we did was like a little girl getting a pony for her birthday. We want another pony. How are the Stros going to follow up that monster pony they went out and got us?

By feeding it Straw and Beer?

[UTexasFight 9432]

He's available....

He does like horses

[tx 3 putt 76908]

The thought of bumgarner feeding off storm / Verlander / this clubhouse has me very excited 

[formermav43 4606]

5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

He's available....

If Verlander is a pony, Bumgarner is just this side of becoming glue.

[tx 3 putt 76908]

Hopefully straw is the prospect we keep

fisher / kemp / white / beer / toro / Dawson / reed /  young Arms

take your pick from that bunch 

 

per lunhow - teams have been asking about straw since early last season 

Edited June 7, 2019 by tx 3 putt

[formermav43 4606]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Hopefully straw is the prospect we keep

fisher / kemp / white / beer / toro / Dawson / reed /  young Arms

take your pick from that bunch 

 

per lunhow - teams have been asking about straw since early last season 

Those things are not equal. Kemp and White aren’t prospects. Reed has no value. Beer is probably too valuable unless it’s a blockbuster deal. Fisher is a possibility, but even though there is a logjam in the outfield now, the top 4 guys are all free agents after next season-will be interesting to see who they keep and who they clear out.

[henrygandorf 29189]

i'm a little torn on straw.

the selfish me thinks he would be great sitting on the bench for us the entire game, then coming in late as a pinch-runner, stealing 1-2 bases, and scoring an important run.  typically a pinch-runner doesn't have a bunch of trade value.  but other teams obviously would use him differently, because he has position flexibility and other teams (like sf) have gaping holes and need mlb ready players (and prospects).

so the charitable me thinks his value might mean more to other teams, and he could be a key piece in a deal.

if everyone was healthy he'd be in aaa.  he's a luxury for us, in our embarrassment of riches.

[tx 3 putt 76908]

Kemp is showing he’s ready to play / get at bats every day 

[henrygandorf 29189]

7 hours ago, rvm96 said:

About 60 games into the season some teams are obviously already sellers and some are very close to that point. Some players I've read that could be on the move that would make sense for Houston are

1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu

3B/DH: Anthony Rendon, Pablo Sandoval

LHR: Brad Hand, Will Smith, Sean Doolittle, Francisco Liriano (reunion?), Tony Watson

RHP: Marcus Stroman, Tanner Roark

LHP: Madison Bumgarner 

is belt avail?  

[tx 3 putt 76908]

Tucker /Alvarez / beer , I’m fine letting one go for a player to put us over the top and inst a half season rental.

i think we resign springer and Jake 

Edited June 7, 2019 by tx 3 putt

[rvm96 1643]

6 hours ago, Rimbo said:

It was the 2017 game, with the 11-run 8th, that I was thinking of.

That 2018 game felt like a fluke. 2017's was something special.

I wasn't saying this was the one you were talking about 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[formermav43 4606]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

Kemp is showing he’s ready to play / get at bats every day 

Agree with that, but he’s a known commodity-he’s probably a platoon outfielder, little to no power, a mediocre glove. He’s 27 years old. That has value, sure, but really only to a contender-no one is trading for that unless he’s a throw in. If you’re dumping a star to rebuild, Tony Kemp is not a future building block.

[rvm96 1643]

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

is belt avail?  

One article I read says that San Fran will try to move their albatross contracts like Belt, but thought it was unlikely they will find good value for it. 

[formermav43 4606]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Tucker /Alvarez / beer , I’m fine letting one go for a player to put us over the top and inst a half season rental.

i think we resign springer and Jake 

I’d rather keep Tucker and Alvarez and let Springer walk, unless he’s willing to sign for a big discount. Outfielders on the wrong side of 30 who play with his reckless abandon do not age well.

[tx 3 putt 76908]

You’re wrong there. Springer is the heart of this team and proven elite talent

 

[formermav43 4606]

I don’t disagree. I also don’t see how that makes me wrong. He’s a proven elite talent...who’ll be 32 in 2021. If he wants a big payday, it needs to be elsewhere. 

[henrygandorf 29189]

i'd like to see us overpay (per year) but give him a shorter deal than he would get someplace else.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

35 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

If Verlander is a pony, Bumgarner is just this side of becoming glue.

Haha. Maybe. But he'll turn 30 on 8/1, so he's younger than Verlander was when we acquired him. And keep in mind that JV appeared to be in decline in mid-2017. 

Bumgarner hasn't been dominant this year, but he's been solid for a bad team (3.87 FIP in 80 IP). His K% and BB% are in line with his career norms. 

He's a half-season guy, so I wouldn't give any of Tucker/Alvarez/Whitley in a deal for him. But man, I like the idea of a JV/Bumgarner/Cole playoff rotation. 

[mycox 582]

Agreed if Straw proves he can play with consistency. If not, you keep Springer.

2021. Tucker, Straw and possibly let Springer walk. Finding a quality FA outfielder is pretty easy.  2021 is going to be a completely different look with Brantley, Reddick, Springer, and Marinsnick all FAs.

Edited June 7, 2019 by mycox

[tx 3 putt 76908]

Pricing will be key with springer. It’s often mentioned he wants to stay in hou 

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

9 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I don’t disagree. I also don’t see how that makes me wrong. He’s a proven elite talent...who’ll be 32 in 2021. If he wants a big payday, it needs to be elsewhere. 

Yeah, the Springer situation will be interesting to watch. I imagine Lunhow et al tried to extend him this spring when seemingly everyone was getting extensions, but obviously they still aren't on the same page. 

But yeah - the entire OF (Springer, Brantley, Reddick and I think Marisnick) are all FAs after next year. This figures to weigh into the calculus of who to trade, keep, extend, etc. 

[henrygandorf 29189]

jake is the one i would "worry" about.  because much like i referenced with straw, he can do more with another team that has more room for him.

of course, with our injuries, we have plenty of room for him.

for those who know better than me, who is our 3rd best position prospect anywhere in the system (after yordan/tucker)?  or at least who are the candidates for 3-4-5th?  outside of guys like beer, i don't have much knowledge on the hitting side, but feel like i know a lot of pitching names.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

jake is the one i would "worry" about.  because much like i referenced with straw, he can do more with another team that has more room for him.

of course, with our injuries, we have plenty of room for him.

for those who know better than me, who is our 3rd best position prospect anywhere in the system (after yordan/tucker)?  or at least who are the candidates for 3-4-5th?  outside of guys like beer, i don't have much knowledge on the hitting side, but feel like i know a lot of pitching names.

Here is the link to Fangrapphs' Astros list from preseason:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-houston-astros/

Spoiler

Rk	Name	Age	Highest Level	Position	ETA	FV
1	Forrest Whitley	21.5	AA	RHP	2019	65
2	Kyle Tucker	22.2	MLB	RF	2019	60
3	Corbin Martin	23.2	AA	RHP	2019	50
4	J.B. Bukauskas	22.4	AA	RHP	2019	50
5	Joshua James	26.0	MLB	RHP	2019	50
6	Cionel Perez	22.9	MLB	LHP	2019	50
7	Yordan Alvarez	21.7	AAA	DH	2020	50
8	Freudis Nova	19.2	R	SS	2022	45
9	Bryan Abreu	21.9	A	RHP	2020	45
10	Brandon Bielak	22.9	AA	RHP	2020	45
11	Luis Santana	19.6	R	2B	2022	40+
12	Rogelio Armenteros	24.7	AAA	RHP	2019	40+
13	Jairo Solis	19.2	A	RHP	2022	40+
14	Tyler Ivey	22.8	A+	RHP	2020	40+
15	Ronnie Dawson	23.8	AA	CF	2020	40+
16	Manny Ramirez	19.3	A-	RHP	2023	40
17	Myles Straw	24.4	MLB	CF	2019	40
18	Seth Beer	22.5	A+	DH	2021	40
19	Abraham Toro-Hernandez	22.2	AA	3B	2021	40
20	Peter Solomon	22.6	A+	RHP	2020	40
21	Brandon Bailey	24.4	AA	RHP	2019	40
22	Framber Valdez	25.3	MLB	LHP	2019	40
23	Alex McKenna	21.5	A	CF	2022	40
24	Jonathan Arauz	20.6	A+	2B	2021	40
25	Garrett Stubbs	25.8	AAA	C	2019	40

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Hank Chinaski

[runthebone 7977]

It's kind of a waste for someone with Bumgarner's bat to be in the AL.  He'd be great to have for the playoffs, though.

[runthebone 7977]

I mean, MadBum has had 4 years with an OPS higher than White's is this year.

[TonyTexas 10510]

I think Fisher has more value than Straw. He's only a year older and was drafted a year earlier. Straw has the slight advantage in speed and average. Fisher has considerably more pop. I don't know how they stack up defensively.  Either would be good replacements for Jake if he leaves for a nice payday. Just trade the one who gets the deal done. Tucker/Alvarez are the future everyday outfielders. 

[Scraps 13561]

Yeah some of you are overvaluing Straw by aloooooot.

[kevwun 15774]

If he can get on base at a good clip, he would be a run scoring machine.  That part is still be determined.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

16 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I think Fisher has more value than Straw. He's only a year older and was drafted a year earlier. Straw has the slight advantage in speed and average. Fisher has considerably more pop. I don't know how they stack up defensively.  Either would be good replacements for Jake if he leaves for a nice payday. Just trade the one who gets the deal done. Tucker/Alvarez are the future everyday outfielders. 

The wild card is if Straw can capably play 2B/SS. If he is passable in a middle infield position, I'd rather have him than Fisher. I agree about Fisher's power, but Straw could be a really valuable utility player if he's capable of moving between CF and MI. 

[TonyTexas 10510]

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

The wild card is if Straw can capably play 2B/SS. If he is passable in a middle infield position, I'd rather have him than Fisher. I agree about Fisher's power, but Straw could be a really valuable utility player if he's capable of moving between CF and MI. 

Perhaps but any infield he plays will be very limited or under extenuating circumstances. Kemp had much more infield experience and had played a whopping 43 innings of 2nd base in his Astro career prior to this emergency stretch. He's basically a slightly faster, RH Tony Kemp.

[runthebone 7977]

Straw is much, much faster than Kemp, not slightly faster.  Last year, Kemp ran 27.6 ft/s and 4.2s HP to 1B despite being a LHH. 

In 2018, Fisher was 29.4.  In 2019, Straw is 29.5 and Marisnick 29.3.

 

2018:   https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=&team=HOU&min=10

2019:   https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2019&position=&team=HOU&min=10

 

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

For all the talk about Kemp's speed, the only Astros he is faster than are Chirinos and White.  

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2019&position=&team=HOU&min=10

Edited June 7, 2019 by Seasick Sailor

[TexArcher 37774]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

I don’t disagree. I also don’t see how that makes me wrong. He’s a proven elite talent...who’ll be 32 in 2021. If he wants a big payday, it needs to be elsewhere. 

The guy is in the MVP conversation, having a career year, and he's a fan favorite, and you want to ship him out because of how old he'll be in 2+ years?

We can afford to pay three big bats (Altuve, Springer, and Bregs).  And we can save money by letting Correa go and letting go of semi-pricey guys like Reddick.  

But guys who can hit 40 bombs and sell a gazillion jerseys don't grow on trees.  You don't just assume Yordan Alvarez is the next George Springer and hope you're right to save a few bucks.

[formermav43 4606]

Yeah, I was going to address that, but I’m not sure why there is this perception that Kemp is fast. He’s actually below average-40th percentile in sprint speed.

Straw is 98th.

[formermav43 4606]

17 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

The guy is in the MVP conversation, having a career year, and he's a fan favorite, and you want to ship him out because of how old he'll be in 2+ years?

We can afford to pay three big bats (Altuve, Springer, and Bregs).  And we can save money by letting Correa go and letting go of semi-pricey guys like Reddick.  

But guys who can hit 40 bombs and sell a gazillion jerseys don't grow on trees.  You don't just assume Yordan Alvarez is the next George Springer and hope you're right to save a few bucks.

I don’t want to “ship him out”-not sure where you got that idea. But I don’t think they should resign him unless he takes below market value precisely because of how old he’ll be-you act like that’s a minor consideration. It’s not.

I don’t have any illusions that Alvarez will replace Springer. If nothing else, he’s inferior defensively. But you also don’t have to just “assume” or “hope” Alvarez and/or Tucker can replace his bat-there’s an entire 2020 to get data points in to see, if they choose to do so.

You seem to be stuck on the 2019 team. I’m talking about 2021 forward. And I’d bet today  that some combination of Alvarez, Tucker, Fisher, Straw, Marisnick (if they choose to resign him), whoever they keep out of this crowded outfield group, and/or a savvy FA signing like they’ve done in the past with Reddick or Brantley can replace his production at a lower cost, yeah-not just to “save a few bucks” but to actually improve the team, since you can spend that money other places. I could be wrong. Fortunately, that decision doesn’t have to be made today and it will be made by people a lot smarter than me. But I’m not sure why you act like it’s so unreasonable.

Edited June 7, 2019 by formermav43

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

3 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I don’t want to “ship him out”-not sure where you got that idea. But I don’t think they should resign him unless he takes below market value precisely because of how old he’ll be-you act like that’s a minor consideration. It’s not.

I don’t have any illusions that Alvarez will replace Springer. If nothing else, he’s inferior defensively. But you also don’t have to just “assume” or “hope” Alvarez and/or Tucker can replace his bat-there’s an entire 2020 to get data points in to see, if they choose to do so.

You seen to be stuck on the 2019 team. I’m talking about 2021 forward. And I’d bet today  that some combination of Alvarez, Tucker, Fisher, Straw, Marisnick (if they choose to resign him), whoever they keep out of this crowded outfield group, and/or a savvy FA signing like they’ve done in the past with Reddick or Brantley can replace his production at a lower cost, yeah-not just to “save a few bucks” but to actually improve the team, since you can spend that money other places. I could be wrong. Fortunately, that decision doesn’t have to be made today and it will be made by people a lot smarter than me. But I’m not sure why you act like it’s so unreasonable.

Agree with this. I LOVE Springer, but you can't overpay for a guy who will be 31 and who had trouble staying healthy in his 20s (he's missed at least 20+ games in all his MLB seasons but one).

I'm not sure how much money he'll command on the market, but the last couple of offseasons tell us that most teams will be reluctant to give him a lot of years...which is why I am still somewhat optimistic that we can extend him at a reasonable price. 

[runthebone 7977]

25 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I’m not sure why there is this perception that Kemp is fast.

Really?

[HtownHorn 14677]

5 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I don't think the Indians are going to blow it up. They are 2 games back in the wild card standings despite their best player missing the first month of the season, plus they have a lot of games against DET, KC, CHW coming up. I don't think Washington is either, unless the bottom falls out quickly (but they've won 7 of the last 10). 

 

Cleveland is totally selling. Carrasco is probably done for the year with a rare blood disorder. Kluber it out with a fracture in his forearm. Clevinger is expected back soon, but his injury was pretty serious. They already have an OF that is trash, on top of Ramirez hitting like White. With payroll issues on the way, trading Hand and Bauer makes complete sense for them.