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2019 Houston Astros Thread

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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

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Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Would be surprised if they could swing a Boyd trade without including Tucker.  Boyd would fit their needs well given that Cole will be too expensive to sign and Boyd is under control until 2023.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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Just now, Fozzz said:

26% K%-BB% this season across 100 innings (higher than Snell, deGrom, and Buehler) and with that control no way they let him ago without receiving a top 50 prospect.  

Any concerns that this is the only year he's done anything close to that - i.e., does it appear to be legit improvement over his first several years? 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77123

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19 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

According to the New York Post, Tigers GM Al Aliva wants Yankees young star infielder Gleyber Torres as a return for Boyd, who has been a good but not great starter for the hapless Tigers.

The Yankees and Tigers have had talks about Boyd, a 28-year-old lefthander who is 5-9 with a 3.72 ERA in 17 starts this season.

Boyd is intriguing because he’s making only $2.6 million this season and he has three more seasons of control, but he’d be a middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Yankees who certainly isn’t worth giving up someone like Torres.

 
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Just now, Hank Chinaski said:

Any concerns that this is the only year he's done anything close to that - i.e., does it appear to be legit improvement over his first several years? 

I believe he has worked on his slider a lot heading into this season, and it's worked well for him.  Maybe the league adjusts to him but it's hard to fake those numbers across 100 innings.  If I am the Tigers i'm thinking he is worth around $60-70 million in surplus value which far exceeds the value of guys like JBB, Cionel, or our AAAA players.  

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Scraps

Scraps 13566

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what about a potential robbie ray trade? i've heard some rumblings, albeit it very little and maybe not as credible. i don't know enough about it but could be a possibility?
Ive been team Ray for awhile now...even mentioned it here. He is a replacement for Cole as well.
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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i like boyd.  he's having a nice, under-the-radar type season, although he didn't have a great showing against us.  he's at the age where he should be coming into his own, so it's not super surprising that he hasn't put it together before now.

if we trade tucker for him, i'm happy about it, and here's why.  i don't really think he's the type of "star" we would include tucker for.  we've obviously rejected deals involving tucker for bigger names.  but if we include him, that means our scouts and number guys really like what they see.  they're great at not only spotting talent that works within our system, but assigning value to that talent.  so if they're into it, then i'm into it.

i'm still holding out hope for madbum.

as for urquidy, what's his pitch profile like?  does he have more than 1-2 quality options?  with k numbers like that, he feels more like a shutdown 7/8th inning guy.  which would be awesome.  of course i said the same for josh james, and i still can't tell if we're trying to make these guys starters or not.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

 

as for urquidy, what's his pitch profile like?  does he have more than 1-2 quality options?  with k numbers like that, he feels more like a shutdown 7/8th inning guy.  which would be awesome.  of course i said the same for josh james, and i still can't tell if we're trying to make these guys starters or not.

He's a fastball/changeup guy with his changeup his best pitch, but supposedly has an improving slider to throw in the mix. He's missed a lot of time with arm injuries and had TJ surgery but has seen an increase in his fb velocity post-surgery. He's very much an audition by circumstance even though he's done very well at CC and RR this season.

 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9507

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Blurb I found on BaseballSavant below.
I remember now seeing him in April at the one game I’ve ever attended in Corpus. I remember thinking he looked like a junkballer that would thrive in something like Dominican winter ball/Mexican Leagues... I may not have been far off, but everything I’m reading now, glad he’s found a couple of extra mph on the fastball


Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55 | Overall: 40

Urquidy has demonstrated the best control and command in the system since the Astros purchased him from the Mexican League's Mexico City Red Devils for $100,000 in 2015. After missing all of 2017 following Tommy John surgery, he made a successful return last season and starred in the Carolina League playoffs as high Class A Buies Creek won the championship. He has continued to pound the strike zone after making the jump to Double-A in 2019.

Urquidy has to locate his pitches with precision because he can't overpower hitters. His best offering is a plus changeup with fade that he sells well by maintaining his fastball arm speed. His heater parks in the low 90s and peaks at 95 mph with some armside run.

His biggest need is to improve his soft curveball because right-handers have teed off on Urquidy since his elbow reconstruction. He has proven that he can deliver strike after strike but still has to show he can miss enough bats to succeed against advanced hitters. Projected as a middle reliever or swing man, his floor stands out more than his ceiling.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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6 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Also, after reading another post-TJ success story, how long before guys start pre-emptively having the surgery.
Is that nonsense or are people already doing this/seriously considering it?

On a related note, Corbin Martin is rumored to need TJ surgery as well.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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5 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Also, after reading another post-TJ success story, how long before guys start pre-emptively having the surgery.
Is that nonsense or are people already doing this/seriously considering it?

i've definitely read some stuff about if there's even the option of some of these kids having it in high-school (after experiencing injury/stiffness/discomfort), they're electing to "get it over with".

that was a few years ago.  not sure if that's still the thinking.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10518

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At the rate of churn going through the minors right now, Frankie Tuesday is getting another shot.

Martes suspension was over last week but can’t get in the country because of visa issues. Luhnow and Crane must have some I.C.E. connections because there isn’t room on the 40 man and he doesn’t count as long as he’s on the restricted list.

 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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4 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I wouldn't give up Tucker for Boyd, but what do I know. Concerns about what to do with him next season aside, he provides decent insurance when Reddick, Brantley, and Springer phase out. 

I'd like the lineup of Springer, Brantley, Reddick, Tucker, Alvarez, Bregman, Correa, Altuve, Chirinos.  One of those outfielders needs to learn how to play first base. 

I'd trade Correa before Tucker.  I'm not sure he is ever going to be able to play a full season, and eventually one of these injuries is going to nag enough to fuck up his game even when he's healthy. 

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Mez2

Mez2 4024

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Guys don't just have TJ and then come back throwing harder, it's the fact they've had a consistent 18 months of rehab, training, and relearn proper arm and pitching mechanics. That's why they come back throwing harder. I've had this talk with many ortho docs at work. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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1 hour ago, WBT said:

You hear stories like that but I'm skeptical.  It's still not a sure thing and recovery is not guaranteed, much less improvement.  Just ask Brady Aiken.  This is from 2015 but says about 80% of major leaguers make it back to the majors:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-surgery-success-rates-in-the-majors/

i don't think it's "hey i'm healthy but if i have this surgery i'll throw harder so i'm gonna do it."  it's more like, "ok, i'm ~injured, and tj is an option, and it happens to so many pitchers at some point, that i'm going to go ahead and do it while i'm 17, so that it doesn't cost me money or opportunity later in my life."

also didn't aiken have some sort of defect in his ucl he was born with?

remember when casey close told everyone we were breaking the rules and that nobody would ever want to deal with us ever again.  how's that working out?

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Welch

Welch 635

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1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs found dead this am, game tonight at Rangers has been cancelled until August 

Huh.  I thought it was prohibitively difficult to change the schedule on such short notice.  At least, that’s what Daniels said two years ago...

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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Matthew Boyd's Home Run Problem

By Craig Edwards

 

In April, Matthew Boyd gave up two homers. In May, five balls left the yard against the Tigers lefty. Last month, Boyd’s breakout season slowed as he gave up 10 homers. As we enter July, Boyd has a solid 3.57 FIP and a 3.72 ERA, and has been worth 2.6 WAR, which ranks 17th among pitchers this season. Those are good numbers to be sure, but as June began, Boyd’s ERA and FIP were both 2.85 and his 2.5 WAR ranked third for pitchers behind only Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Boyd’s strikeouts and walks have been slightly better than they were earlier in the season; his BABIP is slightly higher and his LOB% is a little bit lower. But that doesn’t explain his 5.90 ERA and 5.37 FIP. It’s the home runs that are hurting Boyd, and with the trade deadline a month away, trying to determine whether they are randomly bunching across a few starts or the beginning of a trend is an important exercise for teams looking to reinforce their rotations.

As for how Boyd broke out in the first place, the answer is a bit easier to find — the work has already been done for us. Sung-Min Kim detailed Boyd’s transformation earlier this season, showing how Boyd lowered his arm slot to gain spin on his fastball, and raised the location of the pitch. He also buried his slider more often, gained a consistency in his delivery, and basically eliminated the two-seamer. David Laurila also wrote on Boyd earlier this season, discussing his work with Driveline to create a better slider.
 

Boyd’s season can be carved up any number of ways depending on how you might want to use (and abuse) arbitrary endpoints. If we took away the first three spectacular Boyd starts of the season, where he struck out 29 and walked six, his FIP is 4.09, his ERA is 3.95, and he’s averaging nearly two homers every nine innings. If we look at just his first 10 starts, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has five starts with 0 or 1 runs. He’s only got two starts where his strikeouts don’t at least equal his innings pitched. The only time he walked as many as three batters, he struck out 13 Yankees. If Boyd had evenly spaced out his 17 homers across his starts, we’d be discussing a moderate breakout. Instead, we have a massive breakout followed by concern.

Boyd’s velocity isn’t down. His pitch mix hasn’t changed significantly during the year, though he’s given up four homers on curves and changes, including three in June, despite throwing those pitches right around 10% of the time in 2019. While Boyd’s success has been due to his improved fastball and slider, trying any other pitch has gotten him in trouble. Here’s a rolling graph of the plate discipline numbers of batters facing him, as well as his FIP:

Screenshot-2019-07-01-at-2.03.16-PM.png

The chase rate on Boyd’s pitches out of the zone has been fairly steady all year as seen by O-Swing%. Hitters have made more and more contact outside of the zone as the season has gone on, but that number has dropped over the last month as the homers (and FIP) have moved way up. Hitters have also been making less contact on swings in the zone of late despite there more pitches in the strike zone. It doesn’t seem like a plate discipline issue.

 

What about batted balls? Here’s Boyd’s pull and fly ball numbers as they relate to his FIP:

Screenshot-2019-07-01-at-2.12.05-PM.png

It looks like batters have been pulling the ball a little more as the season has gone on, while fly balls have gone up and infield flies have gone down. According to Statcast, Boyd’s xwOBA was .275 in April and May; it has gone up 60 points in June. That might cause us to think that Boyd is generally a lot more hittable, but his xwOBA if we take the home runs out was .245 in April and May and .248 in June. It really is the homers at issue. This is what Boyd had to say about them before his last start against Texas:

“I made a few mistakes,” said the current Tigers ace, who will make his next start against Texas on Wednesday night. “Obviously, you want to minimize the mistakes. Mistakes are magnified because they cost me runs, right? That’s the way it happens sometimes and you build off that and understand why that happened.”

…

Nothing out of the ordinary. There wasn’t anything I needed to retool or build back up, so to speak,” Boyd said of his preparation for Wednesday’s start. “How I measure success isn’t dictated in the box score. The goal is to win, obviously, I’m not naive to that. But there are so many things that are out of your control. … There’s always things to get better at but in the grand scheme of things, there’s nothing different I’m going through.”

To a certain degree, he’s right. There’s nothing seriously wrong with what Boyd has been doing, but the homers are going to have to stop for him to go back to being an effective pitcher. It’s not like he’s giving up cheap shots; the average distance on a Boyd home run this season is 398 feet, right in line with the league average of 401 feet. Let’s look at some of Boyd’s home runs over the last month.

Here’s one to Dansby Swanson:

The catcher is set up inside and up in the zone. Boyd missed away and around the belt, and Swanson took advantage. That’s a mistake. Here’s one to Mitch Garver:

Again, the catcher sets up inside and Boyd misses away, this time up. How about against lefty like Tyler Naquin?

Same deal. Here’s one that’s less egregious, but catches too much of the lower, inner portion of the zone to Jeff Mathis:

That’s four of the 10 homers in the last month. Here’s another from Nicky Lopez, which appears to be a fastball over the middle of the plate. But the game was in Omaha and ESPN lost the feed during that time.

We have three other homers during that time on pitches Boyd doesn’t have a ton of confidence in, and then two homers off sliders that spun in the middle of the zone. That’s the extent of Boyd’s poor performance over the last month. It’s possible that his command is getting a bit leaky. Compare the two heatmaps to righties with his fastball below. One is from April and May, while the other is from June:
Boyd-FB-change.png
The fastball looks to be a little bit lower in the zone, with a larger segment of pitches left out over the plate. There is a similar trend with the slider:
Boyd-Slider-location.png
Perhaps Boyd is trying some backdoor sliders, which could explain the pitches on the outer half of the zone, but both recent homers were just hangers. Hitters are trying to attack Boyd, with his last eight homers coming on the first three pitches of a plate appearance. While Boyd is still effective with two very good pitches, the lack of variety leaves hitters with less to think about. Boyd might be able to survive with his mistakes with a wider arsenal that catches hitters off guard, but when he misses over the plate and there are only two possible pitch types, the mistakes seem more likely to be hit. It’s certainly possible Boyd cleans things up and hits his spots, eliminating the only part of his game that is faltering given his good strikeout and walk numbers, but the lack of a third pitch is going to make it more difficult to fight through rough patches. Boyd’s breakout is certainly real, but he might not be the ace he appeared to be in the first two months of the season.

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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It is just silly to chase FB/HR% in partial season samples.  Sometimes it can be an indicator of something more meaningful going on.  He had a substantially lower HR/FB% last season when he was a far less effective pitcher - what is there to make of that?  There is a lot of variance in HR/FB rates for pitchers because they don't have much control over what happens when they allow a hitter to put the ball in the air.  There is a reason why it takes 400 FB for a pitcher's HR/FB% to begin to stabilize, and Boyd isn't anywhere near that mark this season.

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