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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

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Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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Guadaloopy

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2 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

You two are the only guys that said anything about Brantley. 

Rosenthal interviewed him because of the Cleveland connection and that was probably FOX best guess at MVP in the split second they had to choose on who to interview before the commercial break 

 Yep... jumped the gun based on Rosenthal’s guess.  

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Wishbone

Wishbone 4924

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2 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

You two are the only guys that said anything about Brantley. 

Rosenthal interviewed him because of the Cleveland connection and that was probably FOX best guess at MVP in the split second they had to choose on who to interview before the commercial break 

You are correct, aparrently. I did think I picked up a comment from the booth about Brantley for the MVP though. In any case, not surprising that it went to a homer who pitched an inning of base free baseball, (as did Verlander with the only difference being he had 1 more strikeout). They were looking for a reason to give it to a Cleveland player and found one. In any case, I was wrong, obviously.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9788

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On the MVP, I’ll give you this: in an age where we’ll see another record for most strikeouts and home runs in a season (i.e. not all that impressive), I could argue a two out opposite field double to give your team the first run (team scoring first wins something like 70% of the time) is just as valuable as anything else we saw in that game.

 

No matter. One more day without baseball and then our pursuit of the Dodgers for World Series home field advantage can pick up again

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Wishbone

Wishbone 4924

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8 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

On the MVP, I’ll give you this: in an age where we’ll see another record for most strikeouts and home runs in a season (i.e. not all that impressive), I could argue a two out opposite field double to give your team the first run (team scoring first wins something like 70% of the time) is just as valuable as anything else we saw in that game.

 

No matter. One more day without baseball and then our pursuit of the Dodgers for World Series home field advantage can pick up again

Already setting up for Dave Roberts to manage the NL in the all star game next year as World Series runner up. For the 3rd year in a row.

Edited by Wishbone
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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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51 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Next few weeks will be interesting. Presumably, Diaz and Correa will be back this month. Trade deadline is 3 weeks from today. The roster could look very different very soon. 

I'm curious to see how the D-backs approach the deadline. They are in the wild card race at this point. If they end up selling, I could see us making a move for Ray. If not, MadBum, Stroman, or Wheeler seem to be the most likely targets. Although I read an article this morning that said we may be interested in Thor, but that the asking price would be steep. I don't see the Nats trading Scherzer. 

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Hank Chinaski

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19 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I'm curious to see how the D-backs approach the deadline. They are in the wild card race at this point. If they end up selling, I could see us making a move for Ray. If not, MadBum, Stroman, or Wheeler seem to be the most likely targets. Although I read an article this morning that said we may be interested in Thor, but that the asking price would be steep. I don't see the Nats trading Scherzer. 

Ray would be interesting. We've discussed the possibility of Grienke (I like that idea a lot). MadBum would probably be the cheapest (because he's a rental). 

Nats are currently the first WC team in the NL...they aren't moving Scherzer. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9788

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7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

If there’s only going to be one trade deadline, it needs to be mid August, not July 31 

Yeah, I think this is going to fail and be changed again next year.

You’ll have ~5 teams that hold on to their cards at July 31 and stay in the hand for another round (e.g. 2-3 weeks) only to want to fold mid-August and be stuck.

Meanwhile, baseball fans in general lose as quality players are stuck on teams middling around .500, 4 to 5 games back of a 2nd wild card spot for ~2 months.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9788

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The Union first proposed it.

more certainty for players, less confusion for everyone involved are about the only real reasons I can gather.

 

here is Rosenthal’s analysis on it from when he first reported on it in spring training

 

OK, now that baseball is about to abolish August trades, raise your hand if you understood how teams made those infamous waiver deals of yesteryear.

Fans? Reporters? Players? Anyone?

Didn’t think so.

The switch to a single non-waiver deadline on July 31, which according to sources will be among the rules changes Major League Baseball and the players’ union adopt this season, will eliminate the indecipherable trade waivers in August, baseball’s version of the U.S. tax code.

The idea, first proposed by the union, is to protect the competitive integrity of the 162-game regular season, create more certainty for players and force teams to decide earlier whether they are buyers or sellers.

Late-season salary dumps no longer will be possible. Nor will big additions with a month remaining on the schedule. Build your roster during the winter. Adjust at the deadline. Then play.

How all this will work in practice, however, remains to be seen.

Things will be simpler without reporters trying to find out which players are on confidential trade waivers, executives withholding the names to avoid fines and fans and players attempting to sort through the maze of claims, blocks and pullbacks – a process described by one GM as “old, outdated and weird.”

But another general manager labeled the pending change a “huge mistake,” warning of unintended consequences and saying if baseball is going to switch from two trade deadlines to one, it should move the date from July 31 to mid-August.

Playing the final two months without the ability to fill holes through trades is too risky for contending clubs, the GM said. Teams that suffer a rash of injuries at one position – say, catcher – might be forced to promote a minor leaguer who does not belong in a pennant race.

Teams that fall out of the race, on the other hand, will be left with only one way to pivot if they want to create openings for younger players – by releasing veterans and paying off their remaining salaries instead of shifting at least part of the financial burden to the acquiring team in a trade.

Some drama will be lost as well.

While trades before the non-waiver deadline occurred more frequently than those after it, a number of memorable deals happened during the August waiver period. Justin Verlander to the Astros in 2017 and the Dodgers-Red Sox blockbuster in ‘12 were the biggest in recent years, while Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, Curtis Granderson and David Freese were among the prominent players who joined eventual postseason qualifiers last August.

The flip side is that the new, one-size-fits-all deadline will be the last chance for contenders to acquire coveted pieces from outside their organization, making the countdown to July 31 even more frenzied and compelling.

In 2018, teams made 48 trades in July leading to the non-waiver deadline and 24 in August leading to the deadline for setting postseason rosters. An even greater number of July trades is likely under the new rule, but many of the deals will be smaller moves by contenders seeking to add complementary parts for depth. Such veterans will offer buyers protection against injury, and their arrivals likely will create the first victims of the system – young players with minor-league options, who will become more vulnerable to demotions in August.

Those players, most in the 0-to-3-year service category, can return when rosters expand in September. Other 0-to-3 types – those with sellers – will benefit, replacing veterans who are traded. The new rules on roster size, starting in 2020, will strike a similar balance. While rosters in September will reduce from 40 players to 28, they will increase from 25 to 26 in the first five months, sources say.

Sounds reasonable enough. But baseball should not stop there.

In certain cases, the absence of trades after July 31 might make teams more inclined to promote hot prospects, which in turn should make the owners more inclined to address service-time manipulation. MLB and the union recently exchanged proposals on that topic but tabled the matter and other economic concerns until a separate discussion that is expected to take place after Opening Day.

As a hypothetical, consider the Brewers’ top prospect, second baseman Keston Hiura. If, after the single July 31 deadline, the Brewers lose their new second baseman, Mike Moustakas, to a significant injury, they will be unable to trade for a replacement. At that point, it would be counter-productive for them to delay Hiura’s arrival in order to gain an extra year of control before he reaches free agency. But under the current system, that temptation still would exist.

The conversation about service-time manipulation must and will take place; virtually everyone in the industry recognizes the problem as a blight on the sport. The conversation about the new deadline is just starting, and as with every other debate in baseball, probably will not end anytime soon.

No adjustment would be perfect; pushing the deadline back to Aug. 15 would create different issues. Teams would have more time to assess where they stand, but less time for any acquisitions to make an impact. Teams also would be less willing to trade top prospects for a six-week rental, but more willing to take on the remaining, reduced portion of a big salary.

Under the new rule, with the last trades occurring on July 31, two types of contenders will be hurt most. The type that bolsters its depth through a series of additions in August, such as the Brewers did last season when they added Granderson, left-hander Gio Gonzalez and reliever Xavier Cedeño on the final day of the month. And the type that gets hit with multiple injuries and falls out of the race in August yet is unable to save money and/or acquire prospects by trading veteran talent.

Rashes of injuries indeed happen – remember the start of last season, when the Yankees lost four outfielders (Clint Frazier, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks and Billy McKinney) in a seven-day span? Teams will need to be proactive, perhaps overly proactive, creating options at different positions. They also will need to think twice about selling if they are on even the fringes of contention, knowing they would leave their fans with two months of meaningless baseball.

The fallout of the new rule will not be known until after it takes effect, but one thing is certain: The trade deadline will now be an actual deadline. If baseball was starting from scratch, it never would introduce anything that resembled the waiver period in August, with all of its Byzantine quirks. At least now the system will be coherent.

Goodbye, confusion. Hello, progress.

 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78470

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Players union wants teams to sign FA’s in the offseason vs trading for a player already under contract in the middle of the season 

 

interesting point about teams having to fill needs internally the last two months, possibly with ‘hot prospects’ 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9788

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10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Interesting : The new rules on roster size, starting in 2020, will strike a similar balance. While rosters in September will reduce from 40 players to 28, they will increase from 25 to 26 in the first five months, sources say.

Fuck me...you mean to tell me Tyler White only has to navigate ~2 more months this year before another roster spot becomes available that he could potentially absorb?

[obligatory fat joke] although if he puts on as much weight this offseason as he did last offseason, two spots will be needed to absorb him [/obligatory fat joke]

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WBT

WBT 20884

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Lulz at indecipherable and byzantine.

Yeah, I remember now the union thought that if teams couldn't trade for help in August they would hand out more bad multiyear contracts to declining 30+ year olds in the offseason.  I can't wait to see how it plays out!

Edited by WBT
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Viper

Viper 12212

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1 hour ago, WBT said:

Lulz at indecipherable and byzantine.

Yeah, I remember now the union thought that if teams couldn't trade for help in August they would hand out more bad multiyear contracts to declining 30+ year olds in the offseason.  I can't wait to see how it plays out!

cap allstar GIF by MLB

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Viper

Viper 12212

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Interesting look at how Osuna has changed his pitching this season

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2019/7/10/20688937/astros-what-happened-to-roberto-osuna

Osuna date FB velo FB% SL velo SL % CH % CU%
2015-2018 95.4 61.8 86.6 18.5 8.7 11.0
3/28/19-6/23/19 96.3 48.2 87.6 21.2 14.5 16.2
6/28/19-present 97.9 74.4 89.6 11.5 12.8 1.3

 

He's actually throwing harder than Josh James now and has eliminated his sinker and practically eliminated his cutter.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6345

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Law released his midseason top-50 prospect list today...Whitley is at #18 and Tucker #19. Notes that Tucker would be starting for "25 other teams right now." 

Jeff Passan also added, in a midseason prediction article:

At some point, Kyle Tucker will add to the Astros' incredibly crowded (and talented) outfield -- or join another team as the best prospect in the biggest trade of July. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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