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2019 Houston Astros Thread

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Seasick Sailor

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Interesting read on Yordan's ROY chances. Story includes this bad ass pick of Yordan in the rainbow shoulder throwbacks:

N4IiuA-i?format=jpg&name=small

 

5. Can a guy who’s played 62 games be Rookie of the Year?

Somebody has to be the American League Rookie of the Year. Why not our favorite Astros hulkster, Yordan Álvarez — despite the slight technicality that he’s appeared in fewer games than, say, Yusmeiro Petit?

Yeah, yeah. It’s true that Air Yordan didn’t arrive in the big leagues until the second week of June. Not his fault. So I’m guessing the Eloy Jiménez Fan Club (and all those other rookies who arrived in March or April) will be offended if I present the argument that Álvarez has positioned himself as The Guy in this derby. But let’s present it anyway.

In just 62 games, this man has been such an unstoppable offensive force that one AL exec actually said this week: “Think of the best left-handed hitter in the American League. Now make a case it’s not Yordan Álvarez.”

Ummm, that’s going to be a challenge. Take a look at the left-handed AL OPS leader board (minimum: 250 PA):

  OPS HR XBH PA
Yordan Álvarez 1.110 21 40 266
Joey Gallo .986 22 38 297
Rafael Devers .965 28 80 579
Michael Brantley .928 19 60 545

All right, so it’s fair to pick Devers or Brantley based on sample size alone. Doesn’t matter, because this is only about whether Álvarez ought to win Rookie of the Year.

Say he plays in 23 of the Astros’ final 27 games this season. That would give him 85 big-league games played. Let the record show that three Rookies of the Year in history played in fewer than 90 games that season: Willie McCovey (52 games in 1959), Ryan Howard (88 games in 2005) and Wil Myers (88 games in 2013).

So there’s precedent, if a guy has done enough mind-warping stuff, for Álvarez to win this thing. And, well, is this list mind-warping enough? It includes the only rookies in history who have had an OPS within 75 points of Álvarez (minimum: 250 PA).

  YEAR OPS PA TEAM
Yordan Álvarez 2019 1.100 266 Astros
Joe Jackson 1911 1.058 641 Indians
Aaron Judge 2017 1.049 678 Yankees
Ted Williams 1939 1.045 677 Red Sox

(Source: Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia)

With apologies to Eloy, Vladdy, Brandon Lowe, John Means, the on-rushing Bo Bichette and others, that’s good enough for me!

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Interesting read on Yordan's ROY chances. Story includes this bad ass pick of Yordan in the rainbow shoulder throwbacks:

N4IiuA-i?format=jpg&name=small

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5. Can a guy who’s played 62 games be Rookie of the Year?

Somebody has to be the American League Rookie of the Year. Why not our favorite Astros hulkster, Yordan Álvarez — despite the slight technicality that he’s appeared in fewer games than, say, Yusmeiro Petit?

Yeah, yeah. It’s true that Air Yordan didn’t arrive in the big leagues until the second week of June. Not his fault. So I’m guessing the Eloy Jiménez Fan Club (and all those other rookies who arrived in March or April) will be offended if I present the argument that Álvarez has positioned himself as The Guy in this derby. But let’s present it anyway.

In just 62 games, this man has been such an unstoppable offensive force that one AL exec actually said this week: “Think of the best left-handed hitter in the American League. Now make a case it’s not Yordan Álvarez.”

Ummm, that’s going to be a challenge. Take a look at the left-handed AL OPS leader board (minimum: 250 PA):

  OPS HR XBH PA
Yordan Álvarez 1.110 21 40 266
Joey Gallo .986 22 38 297
Rafael Devers .965 28 80 579
Michael Brantley .928 19 60 545

All right, so it’s fair to pick Devers or Brantley based on sample size alone. Doesn’t matter, because this is only about whether Álvarez ought to win Rookie of the Year.

Say he plays in 23 of the Astros’ final 27 games this season. That would give him 85 big-league games played. Let the record show that three Rookies of the Year in history played in fewer than 90 games that season: Willie McCovey (52 games in 1959), Ryan Howard (88 games in 2005) and Wil Myers (88 games in 2013).

So there’s precedent, if a guy has done enough mind-warping stuff, for Álvarez to win this thing. And, well, is this list mind-warping enough? It includes the only rookies in history who have had an OPS within 75 points of Álvarez (minimum: 250 PA).

  YEAR OPS PA TEAM
Yordan Álvarez 2019 1.100 266 Astros
Joe Jackson 1911 1.058 641 Indians
Aaron Judge 2017 1.049 678 Yankees
Ted Williams 1939 1.045 677 Red Sox

(Source: Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia)

With apologies to Eloy, Vladdy, Brandon Lowe, John Means, the on-rushing Bo Bichette and others, that’s good enough for me!

Per Fangraphs, here is WAR among AL rookies in 2019 going into the last ~30 games:

1. Yordan Alvarez (2.9)

2. Brandon Lowe (2.5) (And Lowe is out for the season.)

3. John Means (2.2)

4. Danny Jansen (1.4)

Yordan has the rate stats (.324/.421/.689, and his wRC+ of 187 is better than Trout's); he has the counting stats, even with the small number of PAs (21 HR, 19 2B, 62 RBI). 

Assuming he cools off a bit - let's say he ends the year at .300/.400/.600 with 25 HR and 75 RBI...who in the AL is going to top that? If Guerrero gets scorching hot for the last month, maybe he can sneak in - but even that would require Yordan to simultaneously get cold (which he hasn't really done yet). For the record, Guerrero is currently at 0.9 fWAR and has a wRC+ of 117...so he has some ground to make up.  

He's got to be the leader going into the last month.  

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10925

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Just read an article about the AA player for the Rays whose family was murdered.  His manager, one Morgan Ensberg, flew back to Virginia to be with him as he had to face this terrible tragedy.

I was always a MoBerg fan, even after he turned into a statue at the plate, and was disappointed when he and the Astros organization’s paths diverged.  It’s great to see the type of leader he is  being for a group of young people dealing with something so unimaginable.  

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