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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4,930

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26 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Nice that Cole mentioned how much he appreciated the Houston fans there last night. I'm really trying to convince myself that means he want to re-sign with us this winter. That's my dream, and I'm sticking to it. 

I'm playing the same game...this was from a few days ago:

 

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,189

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27 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Nice that Cole mentioned how much he appreciated the Houston fans there last night. I'm really trying to convince myself that means he want to re-sign with us this winter. That's my dream, and I'm sticking to it. 

i think if we had the money, he'd be more than happy to re-sign with us.

i think he'd even give us some sort of hometown discount.  but i don't think we're even in the ballpark right now, barring some major nba-style off-season maneuvering.

he's having arguably the best season in the history of astros starting pitchers, and he may lose the cy young to one of his teammates.

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5,736

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30 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

MN is 3 over the Yankees and 2 over the Dodgers for home field.

Both the Yankees and Dodgers have 56 losses to our 54. The fact the Yankees have an additional win over the Dodgers is immaterial in calculation of magic numbers.  We are at 3 with both since we hold the tiebreakers against both and have a 2 loss lead with 5 to play.

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Viper

Viper 12,108

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1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

MN is 3 over the Yankees and 2 over the Dodgers for home field.

 

52 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Both the Yankees and Dodgers have 56 losses to our 54. The fact the Yankees have an additional win over the Dodgers is immaterial in calculation of magic numbers.  We are at 3 with both since we hold the tiebreakers against both and have a 2 loss lead with 5 to play.

Ohhh magic number. For a second there I thought, man the Twins must have really racked up the wins while I wasn't looking. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,314

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8 minutes ago, BornOrange said:

I wonder if Crane has changed or will change his mind about paying the luxury tax.

Keeping Cole long term would be worth it.

Lunhow and his team certainly have value projections on Cole for the next 5-8 years (term he figures to get in his FA contract), and have quantified exactly how much they think he'll be worth.

They have to weigh that number against dollars obligated to other players, dollars yet to be obligated to other players (Springer, 2021 OFs), luxury tax implications (additional cost factored into the equation of valuing Cole), and, of course, the offers from other Cole suitors. 

Hanging on to him seems unlikely, unfortunately. 

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Jebus

Jebus 1,305

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I'm also overly encouraged every time Cole acknowledges the fans, his teammates, etc., and it really does seem like he enjoys all of it, and I start to tell myself "well maybe.. "  

But then a little voice in the back of my head says "Scott Boras is his agent."

 

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Js1

Js1 85,311

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36 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Lunhow and his team certainly have value projections on Cole for the next 5-8 years (term he figures to get in his FA contract), and have quantified exactly how much they think he'll be worth.

They have to weigh that number against dollars obligated to other players, dollars yet to be obligated to other players (Springer, 2021 OFs), luxury tax implications (additional cost factored into the equation of valuing Cole), and, of course, the offers from other Cole suitors.  + revenue dump from 2019 WS title

Hanging on to him seems unlikely, unfortunately. 

fify 

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A-Tex Devil

A-Tex Devil 2,446

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29 minutes ago, Jebus said:

I'm also overly encouraged every time Cole acknowledges the fans, his teammates, etc., and it really does seem like he enjoys all of it, and I start to tell myself "well maybe.. "  

But then a little voice in the back of my head says "Scott Boras is his agent."

 

Seems like Boras isn’t as anti-Astro as he was back in the Drayton days.  He is still all about talking his guys out of a hometown discount.  But Boras doesn’t worry me as much as he used to.  

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Jebus

Jebus 1,305

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Well it's more about the "no discounts" thing than the "anti-Astros" thing.  I never thought Boras was so much anti-Astro as he was "pro-squeezing every dime possible out of all negotiations". 

I think HG is right, basically the only form of "hometown discount" Boras would allow would be in the form of a huge $$ per year shorter term deal.  So no discount on the dollars per year, but slightly more palatable to the team in terms of not such a long term commitment. He (Boras) can sell that as still getting huge dollars, while saying Cole is betting on himself, because if he keeps pitching this well (or even close to it), a 2-3 year contract now and then a new 3-4 year contract after that would almost certainly be worth more than a single 6 year contract now.  Give up the long term security in exchange for more overall money and flexibility, while expressing confidence in your client's abilities.  

So anyway yeah, he's gone, and I will be sad about it when it happens, but this is all cart before the horse stuff, let's worry about winning the World Series this year before we worry about how they'll go about repeating next year.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,189

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two things:

1. what are the new luxury tax rules?  i know they got more severe recently, and several teams (dodgers, red sox) have avoided it for a reason.  i don't see us forfeiting picks and shit.

2. we need to find the next gerrit cole, or at least 2-3 different morty-style upside guys, and start targeting them.  i'm sure we have our best people on that.

 

1a. what pick will we get when cole signs elsewhere?  i know that rule also got changed recently, and it won't be a 1/2 sandwich pick anymore.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,510

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two things:
1. what are the new luxury tax rules?  i know they got more severe recently, and several teams (dodgers, red sox) have avoided it for a reason.  i don't see us forfeiting picks and shit.
2. we need to find the next gerrit cole, or at least 2-3 different morty-style upside guys, and start targeting them.  i'm sure we have our best people on that.
 
1a. what pick will we get when cole signs elsewhere?  i know that rule also got changed recently, and it won't be a 1/2 sandwich pick anymore.

1. A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

1a. I think you still get a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round if you have given a qualifying offer.

2. In Luhnow we trust. We are going to have to restock the pitching staff. JV, Greinke and Pressly are the only pitchers under contract for 2020. Cole, Harris, Rondon, Smith, Mchugh and Miley are FAs. All the rest are in some stage of arbitration
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BornOrange

BornOrange 1,441

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Those 3 days in 86 were pretty special.

  • Sept 23 - Deshaies strikes out the first 8 batters, 10 K's for the game, 2 hits, beats the Dodgers 4-0
  • Sept 24 - Ryan strikes out 12 and gives up 1 hit in 8 innings, Kerfeld gives up another hit in the 9th, beats the Giants 6-0
  • Sept 25 - Scott strikes out 13 and no hits the Giants, Astros clinch division by beating the Giants 2-0.

That was the beginning of an 8 game stretch where  the Astros threw 6 shutouts.

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