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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

Rustic Horn
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Mez2
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Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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Jebus

Jebus 1327

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Anyone have beef with Granato? I could punch him in the head he is 6 ft from me


Just ordered DRY wings .. must be DRY.....DRY as possible and WELL DONE fries....WELL DONE!!!


Wtf

Leave the poor guy alone, he’s just trying to eat healthy. 

All that extra moisture just gives you water weight

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kevwun

kevwun 15856

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, NowThis said:

if Houston wins G4, when is Game 1 vs. NYY? 

Also, i'm worried about grinding JV too much. Would prefer him in G1 next with a nice rest.  TB is a very dangerous team, especially at home.  Need to play it more conservative IMO

Game 1 is  Saturday regardless.

Edited by kevwun
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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, NowThis said:

if Houston wins G4, when is Game 1 vs. NYY? 

Also, i'm worried about grinding JV too much. Would prefer him in G1 next with a nice rest.  TB is a very dangerous team, especially at home.  Need to play it more conservative IMO

I'd prefer Cole in game 1 anyway. 

Since JV is pitching tonight, if we win, I would stick with the rotation. Cole and Greinke for games 1 and 2 in Houston and JV for game 3 in NY. Urquidy 4.  Cole 5. Greinke game 6 at home again, and JV in game 7 if needed. 

I think that lines up exactly how we need it to. No Greinke on the road.  Cole opening. JV pitching the 2 potentially pivotal games. 

It will be fine as long as Cole doesn't have to pitch a game 5 in the ALDS. 

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted (edited)

it's been a hell of a MLB year.

Seasons with the most extreme winners

Year Teams with .617+ winning percentage
1909 Pirates, Cubs, Tigers, A's
1949 Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals
2019 Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Twins

MLB had a 154-game schedule through 1960 in the AL, and through 1961 in the NL, switching to 162 games in 1961 and 1962 respectively. .617 = 100 wins in 162 games

 

 

if HOU/NYY... will that be the most combined wins (where both had 100+)  outside of a WS , or even considering a WS?

Edited by NowThis
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DaysOff

DaysOff 7969

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Posted
I'd prefer Cole in game 1 anyway. 
Since JV is pitching tonight, if we win, I would stick with the rotation. Cole and Greinke for games 1 and 2 in Houston and JV for game 3 in NY. Urquidy 4.  Cole 5. Greinke game 6 at home again, and JV in game 7 if needed. 
I think that lines up exactly how we need it to. No Greinke on the road.  Cole opening. JV pitching the 2 potentially pivotal games. 
It will be fine as long as Cole doesn't have to pitch a game 5 in the ALDS. 
That lines up nicely, but honestly more worried about the bats now.
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mycox

mycox 582

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33 minutes ago, royiv said:

Still new to Houston so haven't found our favorite sports bar yet. Any suggestions in Downtown/Midtown/Montrose to watch the game this evening? What time do we need to get there to get a seat?

Montrose - Revelry. They should also have the game with sound at Hay Merchant (1/2 price Houston beers when the local team is winning)
Midtown - Beer Market Co. or Woodrows
Downtown - I watched the game at BirdDog Saint Saturday and it wasn't bad. Flying Saucer is next door, but not really a sports bar. Christians Tailgate

I don't think the bars will be too crowded tonight, but it might depend on the bar.

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Js1

Js1 85536

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
25 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:
I'd prefer Cole in game 1 anyway. 
Since JV is pitching tonight, if we win, I would stick with the rotation. Cole and Greinke for games 1 and 2 in Houston and JV for game 3 in NY. Urquidy 4.  Cole 5. Greinke game 6 at home again, and JV in game 7 if needed. 
I think that lines up exactly how we need it to. No Greinke on the road.  Cole opening. JV pitching the 2 potentially pivotal games. 
It will be fine as long as Cole doesn't have to pitch a game 5 in the ALDS. 

That lines up nicely, but honestly more worried about the bats now.

This.

The whole offense appears to be pressing.  

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5855

Posted
Posted

Since 1995 there have been 120 starts by pitchers on 3 days of rest or less they are 30-44 with a 4.58 ERA. Sometimes they answer the bell but more often than not they run out of gas early.

This combined with the Rays emptying the pen today against our slumping offense does not bode well which then means Cole goes in Game 5 and we are starting the ALCS off with Greinke.

Urquidy better fucking pitch today.....

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housious

housious 468

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Since 1995 there have been 120 starts by pitchers on 3 days of rest or less they are 30-44 with a 4.58 ERA. Sometimes they answer the bell but more often than not they run out of gas early.

This combined with the Rays emptying the pen today against our slumping offense does not bode well which then means Cole goes in Game 5 and we are starting the ALCS off with Greinke.

Urquidy better fucking pitch today.....

The hypothetical ALCS rotation is irrelevant. They have to win now. 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Since 1995 there have been 120 starts by pitchers on 3 days of rest or less they are 30-44 with a 4.58 ERA. Sometimes they answer the bell but more often than not they run out of gas early.

This combined with the Rays emptying the pen today against our slumping offense does not bode well which then means Cole goes in Game 5 and we are starting the ALCS off with Greinke.

Urquidy better fucking pitch today.....

So maybe JV leaves after 3 or 4 with a 10-0 lead.  Urquidy gets some solid work.  Hands Miley the ball with a 12-2 lead in the 7th, and we win 12-9 after Miley gives us a scare.

Nah.  Way more likely for JV to take a 1-1 game into the 10th.  Not only have the bats been shaky this series, they've also been shaky for JV for 2 years straight really.

On the flip side, Morton ain't pitching today.  We've hit other Rays pitchers both in this series and throughout the year.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9523

Posted
Posted
Since 1995 there have been 120 starts by pitchers on 3 days of rest or less they are 30-44 with a 4.58 ERA. Sometimes they answer the bell but more often than not they run out of gas early.
This combined with the Rays emptying the pen today against our slumping offense does not bode well which then means Cole goes in Game 5 and we are starting the ALCS off with Greinke.
Urquidy better fucking pitch today.....

Tell me those short rest numbers involving JV and I’ll listen.

The Rays emptying the pen today is a good thing.
The more relievers they run out there, the more chances we’ll run in to someone having an off day. Plus, we’ve already seen most of their best relievers a couple of times.
I like our chances seeing them a third time in 5 days.
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9523

Posted
Posted
Word is there’s jack shit left for the noon presale. Even season ticket holders who had presale this morning could only get in the 400’s

Dammit

I cancelled a lunch for this pre-sale

 

Not really surprised though.

 

I wonder how many they hold back for folks they expect to sign up for 2020 season tickets (and more importantly, when they release those if they don’t get the number of people signing up that they expect).

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

Posted
Posted (edited)

Considering Justin Verlander on Short Rest

By Craig Edwards

 

 

Justin Verlander has never started a game on short rest in the way we conventionally think about short rest starts. Back in 2011, Verlander started Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, but the game was suspended after one inning; he then started Game 3 of that series on two days’ rest. In 2017, Verlander started Game 1 of the ALDS against Boston, pitching six innings and throwing 99 pitches. He followed that start up with 2.2 innings of relief pitching after three days’ rest. Neither appearance really fits what we might expect to see from Verlander today when he starts on three days’ rest after pitching seven shutout innings on Friday.

Even if we add a history of Verlander making starts on short rest, given the very small number of starts and the huge time gap between them, it wouldn’t be especially relevant. Similarly, that Dallas Keuchel just fared poorly on short rest against the Cardinals probably also doesn’t have much bearing on what Verlander manages. The same is true for other pitchers over the last dozen years. There just isn’t a great body of evidence to tell us what we might see over the course of one game. What we do know is that Verlander is pitching a day earlier than he normally would, and that probably has some effect on his body and arm.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that pitching on short rest makes Verlander slightly weaker as a pitcher. We don’t know this to be the case, but it is certainly possible. And we can make another assumption that Verlander being slightly weaker means that his fastball won’t be as hard as it would be typically. Verlander’s fastball averaged 94.6 mph this season and in his start on Friday, it averaged 94.5 mph. If we wanted to know how Verlander might pitch on short rest, we could look at starts where his average fastball velocity was something less than his season-long average.

There were 10 Verlander starts this season where his fastball averaged 94.4 mph or lower. Here’s how he fared in those outings compared to the rest of his starts in which his fastball averaged at least 94.5 mph or more:

 
Justin Verlander with Less Velocity
  High Velo Start Low Velo Start Difference
Starts 24 10 NA
IP/G 6.2 6 -0.2
AVG FA Velocity 94.8 93.7 -1.1
K% 38.3% 28.0% -10.3
BB% 4.1% 7.1% 3.0
HR/9 1.44 1.48 -0.04
FIP 2.96 4.09 -1.13
ERA 2.49 2.82 -0.33

In 10 starts with diminished velocity, Verlander’s strikeout rate went down significantly, his walks shot up, and his FIP was merely above average instead of great, with a slight downturn in ERA. He also got two fewer outs on average. Four of the low-velocity starts were in April, but even if we remove those starts we see similar results:

 
Justin Verlander with Less Velocity Since April
  High Velo Start Low Velo Start Total Low Velo Starts Since April
Starts 24 10 6
IP/G 6.2 6.0 6.0
AVG FA Velocity 94.8 93.7 94.1
K% 38.3% 28.0% 28.6%
BB% 4.1% 7.1% 6.4%
HR/9 1.44 1.48 1.51
FIP 2.96 4.09 4.00
ERA 2.49 2.82 3.03

In any given game, a range of outcomes are fairly reasonable for Verlander, but if his velocity is off a tick, we should expect a little bit worse performance. When the options are Jose Urquidy plus the bullpen and then Verlander in Game 5 on regular rest if needed versus a short-rest Verlander and a full rest Gerrit Cole in Game 5 if needed, the potential drop off for Verlander in Game 4 is probably worth it given Cole’s presence. The move could backfire today and still be the right choice, but it isn’t fair to expect normal-rest Verlander in tonight’s game.

Edited by Seasick Sailor
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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

Posted
Posted

Can't get the edit function to work properly, but the tl;dr version is, if you assume JV's velo will be down, his performance with similar velo unsurprisingly results in a higher FIP, more walks, and fewer outs. 

Essentially, we should likely expect him to be above average instead of great. Above-average is probably more than we could expect from Urquidy. 

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WBT

WBT 20655

Posted
Posted (edited)

What a shitshow this sale is.  Game 2 was SRO only.  I have Game 7 nosebleeds in the cart but it's freezing up when I try to go back and add Game 6.

And then it timed out before I could check out with just Game 7.

Edited by WBT
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