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2019 Houston Astros Thread

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HoustonFrog

HoustonFrog 368

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So you more rational (or irrational) fans - why are the Astros so much better? Seems that the Nationals have an equal/better starting rotation, hitting has been much better in playoffs. Bullpen is slightly worse than ours but not saying much.

They have the best current hitter (Rendon) and a bunch of guys who do their job.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8065

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If our hitters continue to stumble along and theirs keep coming up big in clutch situations, yes, we'll have trouble winning the series. But we have far more proven weapons in more places through our lineup. So if things are reasonably "normal," we should outscore them. I think there's also a belief we have an edge psychologically, given how many of our veterans have records of recent playoff success. That edge presumably also extends to the manager. Throw in the "rust" factor (real or not) for the Nats and HFA for the Astros and we're a really solid pick on paper.

Obligatory caveat: They obviously won't play any of these games on paper, so don't quote me.  

Edited by Gut Wagon
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Alvin89

Alvin89 108

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2 hours ago, IDIOTsavant said:

Also, the 2 named corroborating journalists are from NY. The "Chronicle" reporter Hunter Atkins was one of them. He didn't even write the story on this ordeal FOR the Chronicle. Chandler Rome did. Just a whole lot of weird in this situation.

 

http://www.hunteratkins.com/

Chandler Rome is that sniveling little shit bag that wrote a hit piece on Osuna comparing him to a rapist then left it as his top story for months. Color me shocked he wrote this.

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WBT

WBT 20564

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28 minutes ago, Teddyballgame said:

Grienke has not looked great with plenty of rest. Hopefully he gets on track and is a better pitcher with out extended time off.

He looked pretty damn good after the 1st in his last start.  I thought AJ had an unnecessarily quick hook.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37774

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49 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

So you more rational (or irrational) fans - why are the Astros so much better? Seems that the Nationals have an equal/better starting rotation, hitting has been much better in playoffs. Bullpen is slightly worse than ours but not saying much.

They have the best current hitter (Rendon) and a bunch of guys who do their job.

They have 4 quality bats: Rendon, Soto, Kendrick, and Turner.  We have 7 quality bats when Yordan is hitting and 6 if he's not.  And we hit significantly more doubles and homers.  They've hit better in the playoffs, but they've also had a week to cool off.  And a new series could be a complete reset for our offense.  I expect much better going forward.

Our starters are only a slight edge over theirs, but it is an edge.  Roughly: Cole > Scherzer, JV > Strasburg, Greinke = Corbin.  Game 4 is the only one where they figure to have an advantage on the mound.

Out bullpen is adequate, while their bullpen is an absolute disaster.

It's possible that none of this plays out in our favor, but we're a pretty solid favorite on paper.

Edited by TexArcher
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justinjc7

justinjc7 153

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This Taubman guy is obviously a complete fuckin dumb ass and probably should not hold the job he currently has if that is how he behaves.  But Game 1 of the World Series starts tonight and the fact that this has been such a widely reported and circulated story is a joke.  Not sure "person was a dumb ass" should be that big of a story.  The guy did something stupid, he acted like a jack ass, who cares?  

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14678

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58 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

So you more rational (or irrational) fans - why are the Astros so much better? Seems that the Nationals have an equal/better starting rotation, hitting has been much better in playoffs. Bullpen is slightly worse than ours but not saying much.

They have the best current hitter (Rendon) and a bunch of guys who do their job.

The 25 man roster for the Astros accumulated 69.5 WAR on the season. The Nationals 52.7. If both teams bring their A games the Astros have the much better lineup and bullpen. When adding up the 4 starting pitchers that took the most starts for both teams, both groups had 21.5 WAR.

Edited by HtownHorn
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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54215

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5 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

(National media) "You know what we should do? We should try to drum up some controversy to push during the World Series. Otherwise, millions will simply want to watch a bunch of future Hall of Famers face off for the title, which serves no political purpose."

  

The Houston Chronicle seems to be at the middle of this.

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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Astros Advantage Against Breaking Balls Could be Key

By Jay Jaffee

 

Strong pitching — aided, perhaps, by a less lively baseball — has been the predominant story of this postseason, and given the pair of rotations lined up for the the World Series, it may well continue to be. The Nationals’ Max Scherzer and the Astros’ Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke own five Cy Young awards between them, and all are likely bound for the Hall of Fame someday. If Verlander doesn’t win this year’s AL Cy Young award, teammate Gerrit Cole quite likely will, and both Scherzer and his teammate Stephen Strasburg are contenders for the NL award (though they may take a back seat to Jacob deGrom). Oh, and if that’s not enough talent, the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin, who signed last winter’s largest free agent contract, and Aníbal Sánchez, who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of the NLCS opener against the Cardinals, are here as well. As Craig Edwards wrote, this is one of the greatest pairings of rotations for the Fall Classic since at least 1947.

With that out of the way, a few additional thoughts about pitching, starting and otherwise, as Game 1 approaches.

 

Breaking Stuff Could Be the Key

As with the ALCS against the Yankees, the Astros appear to have an edge on the Nationals when it comes to matching up against certain pitch types. In terms of pitchers’ wOBAs allowed, the two teams are actually very close except for one pitch type:

 
Pitcher wOBA Allowed by Pitch Type
Pitch FF FF 95+ FT/SI CU SL CH
Astros .346 .298 .343 .257 .221 .252
Nationals .349 .295 .374 .267 .237 .241
MLB Avg .359 .324 .361 .281 .278 .290
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

This will be a series of hellacious sliders, given that the Astros and Nationals ranked first and second in terms of lowest wOBAs allowed on the pitch; good luck hitting those of Verlander (.164, the majors’ lowest mark), Scherzer (.169, second-lowest), Corbin (.202, sixth-lowest), or Cole (.224, 13th-lowest). Likewise, the Nationals had the majors’ second-lowest mark and the Astros the fourth-lowest on changeups, with Strasburg (an MLB-low .190), Greinke (.224, fifth-lowest), Sánchez (.271, 23rd-lowest), and Scherzer (.286, 28th-lowest) the ones to watch out for. Greinke was the majors’ best when it came to curves (.179), with Strasburg (.202, fifth) and Verlander (.222, sixth) near the head of the class.

The biggest difference here is on two-seamers and sinkers, which Baseball Savant tracks separately; I’ve grouped them, as Pitch Info does. Corbin (.338) and Strasburg (.342) were still better than average with the offering; the former throws his nearly 35% of the time, the latter about half that, and Sánchez (.387) just under 10%. Greinke, the only Astros starter who ever throws the pitch with any real frequency, did so just 6.5% of the time (including his work with the Diamondbacks), and it got tattooed (.458 wOBA), though it’s a key offering from relievers Joe Smith (32.3%) and Brad Peacock (30.7%).

 

Turning to the hitters:

 
Hitter wOBA Against by Pitch Type
Hit FF FF 95+ FT/SI CU SL CH
Astros .389 .326 .382 .325 .343 .307
Nationals .358 .332 .419 .274 .273 .312
MLB Avg .359 .324 .361 .281 .278 .290
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

The Nationals punished the aforementioned sinkers at the majors’ most proficient clip, so if Greinke keeps that pitch in his pocket, that advantage will be neutralized. Astros hitters were the majors’ second-best against four-seam fastballs, while the Nationals ranked just 17th in that category, though on the ones that registered 95 mph or higher — most notably the province of Scherzer (.187 against on such pitches), Strasburg (.220), Verlander (.253), Cole (.257), and relievers Sean Doolittle (.190), Roberto Osuna (.302), Hector Rondon (.329), Daniel Hudson (.333), Ryan Pressly (.334), and Josh James (.334) — Washington was slightly better. It appears they’re likely to face more of them, particularly in the late innings. That said, Astros hitters George Springer (.558), Alex Bregman (.478), and Jose Altuve (.411) were all better at the high-velo stuff than any Nationals regular, with Juan Soto (.392), Howie Kendrick (.373), and Anthony Rendon (.370) leading the team.

The big difference, and I think one of the major keys to the series, is that the Nationals just don’t match up very well when it comes to the breaking stuff, ranking 17th against sliders (the Astros were first) and 19th against curves (the Astros were third). As noted, the Astros can offer some of the majors’ elites in that area, and very few Nationals hit well against such pitches:

 
Nationals Hitters Against Breaking Pitches
Player wOBA vs SL wOBA vs CU
Anthony Rendon .358 .331
Howie Kendrick .344 .415
Ryan Zimmerman .330 .067
Kurt Suzuki .299 .234
Brian Dozier .280 .070
Michael A. Taylor .273 .263
Victor Robles .265 .456
Juan Soto .262 .420
Trea Turner .261 .338
Adam Eaton .250 .319
Yan Gomes .232 .238
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Some of the Nationals did at least do well against curves, but some are particularly vulnerable. By comparison, most of the Astros are at least competent on sliders, and some of them feast. Likewise on curves:

 
Astros Hitters Against Breaking Pitches
Player wOBA vs SL wOBA vs CU
Yordan Alvarez .458 .256
George Springer .457 .383
Martin Maldonado .399 .000
Jake Marisnick .368 .312
Alex Bregman .366 .471
Josh Reddick .366 .373
Michael Brantley .361 .301
Yuli Gurriel .329 .380
Jose Altuve .323 .248
Robinson Chirinos .285 .410
Carlos Correa .280 .307
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

This is definitely something to watch as the series progresses.

Starting Pitching Is Back in Style

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CurlyDumps

CurlyDumps 4471

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1 hour ago, HoustonFrog said:

So you more rational (or irrational) fans - why are the Astros so much better? Seems that the Nationals have an equal/better starting rotation, hitting has been much better in playoffs. Bullpen is slightly worse than ours but not saying much.

They have the best current hitter (Rendon) and a bunch of guys who do their job.

Astros are a fairly heavy favorite to win the series at -230.  Vegas disagrees with your perceived advantages.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54215

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36 minutes ago, justinjc7 said:

This Taubman guy is obviously a complete fuckin dumb ass and probably should not hold the job he currently has if that is how he behaves.  But Game 1 of the World Series starts tonight and the fact that this has been such a widely reported and circulated story is a joke.  Not sure "person was a dumb ass" should be that big of a story.  The guy did something stupid, he acted like a jack ass, who cares?  

If the Astros hadn't sent out that release calling the SI article fiction, this wouldn't be a story any more:

 

Edited by Beau Vine
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

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2 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

If the Astros hadn't sent out that release calling the SI article fiction, this wouldn't be a story any more:

 

Yep.  If the statements issues today had come last night, the only takeaway would be, "that dude kinda seems like a douche."  But the official team statement, followed by the completely contradictory statements today, are only fanning the flames.  I don't know if Taubman needs to be fired, but the PR person who was in charge last night certainly needs to be.

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formermav43

formermav43 4606

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1 hour ago, HoustonFrog said:

So you more rational (or irrational) fans - why are the Astros so much better? Seems that the Nationals have an equal/better starting rotation, hitting has been much better in playoffs. Bullpen is slightly worse than ours but not saying much.

They have the best current hitter (Rendon) and a bunch of guys who do their job.

It may seem that way to you, but if you’re truly looking at it rationally, the Astros bullpen and offense are significantly better. The rotation is the only place that’s even.

Houston has the best offense since the 1927 Yankees. The Nats have a 103 wRC+ as a team-basically, league average.

Despite the handwringing about the Astros bullpen, they are 3rd in ERA and 1st in xFIP.  Washington is next to last in both categories-their bullpen is a tire fire.

These are not small advantages.

 

Edited by formermav43
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Rimbo

Rimbo 25921

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2 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:

So you more rational (or irrational) fans - why are the Astros so much better? Seems that the Nationals have an equal/better starting rotation, hitting has been much better in playoffs. Bullpen is slightly worse than ours but not saying much.

They have the best current hitter (Rendon) and a bunch of guys who do their job.

We had the third best bullpen in MLB. They just out-bullpenned the vaunted NYY bullpen, too.

Our bullpen is a big advantage.

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DoobieWah

DoobieWah 1436

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Oh for fuck's sake! He didn't say anything that should "frighten" a strong, confident, feminist sports reporter who feels entitled to be in a men's locker room.

If those women were offended and "frightened" by some business office buffoon saying he's glad we have the best closer in baseball, then they shouldn't be in the fucking locker room.

"I'm glad we got Osuna"  wouldn't have "frightened" Ann Richards, it wouldn't have "frightened" Barbara Jordan and it wouldn't have "frightened" my grandmother. Why does everyone have to be a victim these days?

Grow a pair gals! You're embarrassing yourselves.

 

(If necessary, please move to the Unpopular Opinions thread.)

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

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1 hour ago, CurlyDumps said:

Astros are a fairly heavy favorite to win the series at -230.  Vegas disagrees with your perceived advantages.

While I agree the Astros will win, I think -230 is ridiculous. That's not a good value bet especially given how the two teams have been playing recently.

I have the Astros winning at +190 but I made that bet pre-playoffs.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37774

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1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Finally someone from the Astros says the right thing:

 

Exactly.  This is the only type of statement that should have been released.  Say the right thing to make it go away (because this should NOT be the story right now) and rip Taubman a new one in public and in private.  

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