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Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 1:12 PM, Js1 said:
And a million times this.  Don't stubbornly close our own window by letting him go because you don't want to pay the tax. 

They have a greater risk, IMO, of closing their window by giving a 6 year (or more) deal.
I truly believe Luhnow and Crane will continue to ride the horse that got them here (find good pitchers and turning them great) until it’s dead.
I just can’t believe they will buy at the absolute market peak for Cole. There is simply no way he can pitch better than he did this year and I don’t see the Astros FO getting in to a bidding war for something less than what he did this year.
The ONLY way we make a run at him is if he agrees to a shorter term deal betting on himself to go through FA again to get an even higher deal in a few years. But given point A above and labor uncertainty past 2021, he’d be foolish to do that

Rosenthal on what he thinks it’s going to take (and a comment expecting Boras to ask for $300M):
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  • Like 2
Posted

The only pitcher who has a shot at living up to his 200+ million contract from that group around 2015 is Scherzer and he is having back problems half way in to it.

Posted

How about offering something really unconventional like 1 year $60/65 million to try and keep the band together for one more year so he has an excellent chance at (hopefully another) ring and then go off to Cali for $300 million in 2021.

Posted (edited)

He's not going to pass up a guaranteed deal that is somewhere between 200-300 million.  He could blow out his arm in his next start and then he just pissed away 200 million dollars.

Edited by kevwun
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 3:43 PM, kevwun said:

The only pitcher who has a shot at living up to his 200+ million contract from that group around 2015 is Scherzer and he is having back problems half way in to it.

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Scherzer is finishing up year 5 of 7 and has already outperformed the contract.  He's possibly the best free agent pitcher signing of all time.

Posted (edited)

I can see evidence that Crane will and will not go after Cole. (I'm not saying that he doesn't want Cole, every team does.)

The Astros have had a clear picture on how they move forward and signing max-like contracts isn't their norm. But they also traded for Greinke this year by leveraging the future which also wasn't the norm.

The trouble with signing Cole is that you cannot expect 2019 #s from him for 7-8 years. It's possible that he can match or come close to 2019 #s again but very unlikely. therefore you need to bring his projected performance back to earth when deciding on how much to offer. And then is it better to spread that money to 2-3 near-top level players instead.

In some ways, letting the Angels commit another >300m to 1 players is good for the Astros.

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
  • Like 1
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 3:48 PM, WBT said:

Scherzer is finishing up year 5 of 7 and has already outperformed the contract.  He's possibly the best free agent pitcher signing of all time.

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Yeah, I was off on the half way through part, but the point still stands.  For every Scherzer, there is a David Price, Felix Hernandez, Mike Hampton, etc.  Somehow talk him in to a 4 or 5 year deal and I am all for it.  It's the 7 or 8 year ones that can really hurt teams.

Posted (edited)
  On 10/28/2019 at 4:14 PM, Rockethorn1978 said:

Alright so what's a good SP on the winter market we could snag up? The offense is fine, would love to see us add another front line SP. 

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Let's win one more game this year and then we can have that discussion.

Edited by cabowabo
  • Like 2
Posted

every time a reliever gets a big out, or a batter clubs a homer, they show the dugout.  and every time they show the dugout, you see all of our hitters out to greet him, doing their little routines, and they show verlander and cole seemingly joined at the hip.  if everything falls right, we're 27 outs from a title.

most of these guys have already signed on to continue doing this for at least the next couple seasons.

if cole would rather set an off-the-field record for biggest contract while playing 7-8 years close to home for a middling angels team, then that's his decision.  for decades we've seen players in all sports leave good situations to go chase a title.  i don't think we'll have any issue finding guys who want to come win for deals that make sense for us.  especially pitchers.

with or without cole, we'll be fine.

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 4:25 PM, kevwun said:

They were rumored to be trying to trade for Wheeler, I wonder what kind of deal it would take to sign him?

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That was the guy who jumped out to me immediately.  Give Strom an offseason with Wheeler and we have a legit starting 4 rotation with JV, LMJ, Wheeler and Greinke. 

Posted (edited)

And he might be ok with a 2-3 year deal in the hopes of a big payday after he has been Strom'd.  He seems like the best reclamation project out of the free agents.  There might be better candidates that they can get with a trade, but a free agent deal would be easier on the farm.

Edited by kevwun
Posted (edited)
  On 10/28/2019 at 3:54 PM, kevwun said:

Yeah, I was off on the half way through part, but the point still stands.  For every Scherzer, there is a David Price, Felix Hernandez, Mike Hampton, etc.  Somehow talk him in to a 4 or 5 year deal and I am all for it.  It's the 7 or 8 year ones that can really hurt teams.

Expand  

Agreed, Scherzer has been an outlier for sure.  I think we'll continue to try bring in high dollar starters by trade where the commitment is shorter.  Scherzer would actually be a perfect candidate if only the Nats were sellers.  And we'll keep developing our own of course.

Edited by WBT
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 11:28 AM, kevwun said:
I did something dumb last night after the game and went and bought a standing room ticket for Game 6.  I regret nothing.

 

I’m thinking about it. $650 now.

 

Some friends gave us early cash for wedding / go to game 6...getting hitched Nov 2. This would be a great celebration.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Posted (edited)

I have a ticket for Game 7 too and my friend has one for both also and a hotel booked for both nights 3 blocks from Minute Maid, so we are probably going to ride it out if necessary.

Edited by kevwun
Posted

I grabbed one for game 7 at the market bottom after losing game 2.

 

If this were the Dodgers (e.g. clearly the best NL team during the year), I’d feel pretty good about that ticket getting used.

As it is, I can’t help but wonder if the Cinderella ride is over for the Nats.

 

 

I mean, JV is due right?

 

Edit: grabbed ticket. Not boobs... although I may be doing the latter if we win a game 7.

Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 3:17 PM, UTexasFight said:


They have a greater risk, IMO, of closing their window by giving a 6 year (or more) deal.
I truly believe Luhnow and Crane will continue to ride the horse that got them here (find good pitchers and turning them great) until it’s dead.
I just can’t believe they will buy at the absolute market peak for Cole. There is simply no way he can pitch better than he did this year and I don’t see the Astros FO getting in to a bidding war for something less than what he did this year.
The ONLY way we make a run at him is if he agrees to a shorter term deal betting on himself to go through FA again to get an even higher deal in a few years. But given point A above and labor uncertainty past 2021, he’d be foolish to do that

Rosenthal on what he thinks it’s going to take (and a comment expecting Boras to ask for $300M):

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Expand  

I have heard from a source who has a source who knows someone that empties Crane's trash that he is willing to go 4 yrs, 40 mil per. Just the messenger, but was truly told just that. FWIW.

Posted

Don’t show this to the boys until they get one more win but damn, what a ride...

 

Stark: Astros one win away from something special

 

 

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Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 5:33 PM, UTexasFight said:

Don’t show this to the boys until they get one more win but damn, what a ride...

 

Stark: Astros one win away from something special

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

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I feel sort of guilty for having read that all the way through. Nice piece, but it presumes a Houston title.

Yes, common sense says we'll soon be celebrating. But man, I know better than to get worked up over it until it happens.  

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 5:17 PM, ausjala said:
I have heard from a source who has a source who knows someone that empties Crane's trash that he is willing to go 4 yrs, 40 mil per. Just the messenger, but was truly told just that. FWIW.

I heard Crane speak at a breakfast meeting recently and this sounds about right. He definitely will not go more than 5 years for anyone.
Posted

I'm a little disappointed actually. Watching playoff baseball is awesome and it's about to come to an end. At which point we'll have to wade through thousands of meaningless games to reach this point again. 

  • Like 2
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 7:10 PM, housious said:

I'm a little disappointed actually. Watching playoff baseball is awesome and it's about to come to an end. At which point we'll have to wade through thousands of meaningless games to reach this point again. 

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thousands?

Posted

That is a lot of money for someone who has the raw materials, but still hasn't really put it all together.  Once again, I wish they would have kept Uncle Charlie.

  • Like 2
Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 4:27 PM, Js1 said:

That was the guy who jumped out to me immediately.  Give Strom an offseason with Wheeler and we have a legit starting 4 rotation with JV, LMJ, Wheeler and Greinke. 

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i think we're gonna look for a 1-year miley situation, and wait to see what's up with lmj, urquidy, whitley, etc.

then depending on how everything is going, trade for an arm next july.

Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 7:40 PM, henrygandorf said:

i think we're gonna look for a 1-year miley situation, and wait to see what's up with lmj, urquidy, whitley, etc.

then depending on how everything is going, trade for an arm next july.

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Who's left in the farm system to give up for an arm?  My impression as someone who doesn't follow the farm system super closely is that the string of recent multi-prospect deals have stripped away some of the bulk of the minor league system. Seems like Tucker is basically past the prospect stage, and if Whitley is not good enough to step into a role with the team by then, some of the shine will be off of him as a prospect as well, so who's left to use as bait to pick up an in-demand arm at that point? 

Posted
  On 10/28/2019 at 7:05 PM, Gut Wagon said:

I feel sort of guilty for having read that all the way through. Nice piece, but it presumes a Houston title.

Yes, common sense says we'll soon be celebrating. But man, I know better than to get worked up over it until it happens.  

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We have lost two straight at home needing to win 1 before ... Fuck you 1980 NLCS. Ironically enough the Expos (now Nationals) matched the exact same feat in the 1981 NLCS.

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