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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

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Seasick Sailor

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After Another Poor Outing, What's Next for Astros Rookie Corbin Martin

By Jake Kaplan

 

When the Astros pulled the plug on Collin McHugh as a starter and replaced him with Corbin Martin, it wasn’t merely to let Martin audition for the fifth starter’s spot.

Their intention in making the decision was to have Martin in their rotation for the foreseeable future. His runway is considerably longer than two poor outings. Because of their major league-best offense and their already sizable division lead, the Astros have the luxury of letting Martin learn on the job.

From a standpoint of pitch quality, Martin’s weapons are more than good enough to get out major league hitters. The four-seam fastball he relies on heavily sits 95 mph and peaks at 97. His changeup has thus far been his best swing-and-miss offering. His breaking balls, while blending together sometimes, are both effective when in and around the zone.

The specific reason for his struggles in his last two starts, against the Red Sox on Saturday and the White Sox on Thursday, also seems unlikely to continue. His issue has been shoddy command, and command was a strength of his in the minor leagues. All of a sudden, he’s had a hard time repeating his delivery.

On Saturday against the Red Sox, he struggled to land his breaking balls. On Thursday against the White Sox, he continuously fell behind hitters by missing arm-side with his fastball. He’s flying open too early in his delivery.

Astros manager A.J. Hinch felt Martin was mentally carrying over one bad pitch into the next Thursday night, which is what he told him when he took the ball from him in the fourth inning. When Martin started to struggle, it snowballed on him.

“It’s a learning experience for him,” Hinch said. “He’ll be better for it.”

The three earned runs Martin allowed on six hits and a walk in only 3 1/3 innings against the White Sox inflated his ERA to 4.97 through three starts. His mechanical issues have translated to only 58 percent strikes. In his six Triple-A outings to begin the season, he threw 63 percent strikes. Last season in Double A, he threw 65 percent strikes.

The rookie right-hander also was maybe too predictable against the White Sox. He leaned on his fastball almost exclusively his first time through their lineup and didn’t establish he could throw his breaking balls for strikes. His fastball is his best pitch, so his heavy reliance on it is likely to continue. But it’s somewhat strange to see a Houston pitcher throw so few breaking balls. The Astros perennially rank toward the bottom in the majors in fastball usage. This season, their 45.8 percent usage is the second-lowest in the majors, according to FanGraphs, and that’s despite having two of the best fastballs in the game in their rotation via Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

An adjustment period was expected for the 23-year-old Martin, who’s still less than two years removed from being drafted in the second round out of Texas A&M. If his struggles persist, the Astros’ calculus will change. But right now, it’s not as it if anyone is pushing to take his spot.

Starting depth is an area Houston lacks. McHugh made only two relief appearances before a sore pitching elbow sent him to the 10-day injured list. Top prospect Forrest Whitley, plagued by command issues of his own, has a 12.21 ERA and nine home runs allowed in 24 1/3 innings in Triple A.

If not Martin, Framber Valdez would be the next in line to get a crack at starting. Josh James has probably become too valuable a part of the bullpen to switch his role now. The Astros might want to consider optioning Valdez to Triple A to stretch him out as starting insurance.

Martin, whose next start should be Tuesday night against the Cubs, has a lot more upside than Valdez. The Astros expect he will be a mainstay in their rotation for years to come. First, he has to slow things down and get back to the smooth, repeatable delivery that propelled him to the majors in the first place.

“I try to keep things as simple as possible. And when I try to do too much, I think that’s when I get hurt,” Martin said. “So, I think I need to go back to that and work on the smaller things instead of worrying about the big picture.”

(Top photo: Tim Warner/Getty Images)

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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CAVAN BIGGIO 2B, TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reports 2B Cavan Biggio will be called up from Triple-A Buffalo on Friday.

Lourdes Gurriel will also be promoted with Richard Urena and Billy McKinney headed back to the farm. The son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, Cavan has gotten off to a strong start this year, hitting .307 with six homers, 26 RBI and five steals for Buffalo. The 24-year-old is Toronto's ninth-rated prospect, according to MLB.com.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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9 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

Hope the Astros are not heading into one of those “law of averages” corrections. Boston and the Cubs are not rollovers ...

this has been our playbook since 2015.  we go through "oh no we suck again" stretches, then go on crazy streaks.  as long as we get healthy, i'm not really worried about it.

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UTHornFan014

UTHornFan014 710

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Also interested in this. He’s way too good to be this bad


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That was the first time I had seen him pitch this year, but it seemed like a large part of it was mental. There are likely some mechanical issues going on as he had zero control last night, but the more concerning thing to me is that it seemed like if anything went against him (borderline ball/strike calls or when he missed a chance to throw a guy out at first on a tapper towards third) he would get visibly frustrated and sulk around the mound. I think his confidence is shot right now and it may not be a bad idea to send him to a lower level to get his head right.
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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

this has been our playbook since 2015.  we go through "oh no we suck again" stretches, then go on crazy streaks.  as long as we get healthy, i'm not really worried about it.

And we will probably be doing it again in the next couple of weeks. After we wrap up the series with the Sox and the Cubs, our next ten games are against the A's, the Mariners, and the Orioles. We then play two against the Brewers before playing the Jays and the Reds. It's not crazy to think we could go 13-5 over that stretch if everyone is healthy. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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1 hour ago, UTHornFan014 said:
2 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:


Also interested in this. He’s way too good to be this bad


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That was the first time I had seen him pitch this year, but it seemed like a large part of it was mental. There are likely some mechanical issues going on as he had zero control last night, but the more concerning thing to me is that it seemed like if anything went against him (borderline ball/strike calls or when he missed a chance to throw a guy out at first on a tapper towards third) he would get visibly frustrated and sulk around the mound. I think his confidence is shot right now and it may not be a bad idea to send him to a lower level to get his head right.

yeah, if the pcl is such a hitters league, i'm surprised this type of stuff doesn't happen more.

should have all hitters come from there and all pitchers come from aa.

seriously though, as long as whitley is healthy, i think he'll be fine.  i agree it's likely mental.  we're in no rush.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9369

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this has been our playbook since 2015.  we go through "oh no we suck again" stretches, then go on crazy streaks.  as long as we get healthy, i'm not really worried about it.

Yeah. Play .500 against teams above .500.
Play .700-.750 against teams below .500.
That’s what we’ve done seemingly every year since 2015 like hg says.
Problem is when you’re playing .750 against the riff raff, expectations stay high and, subconsciously, people expect the same no matter the opponent and a 4-6 stretch against Red Sox and cubs has people close to jumping.
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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16 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


Yeah. Play .500 against teams above .500.
Play .700-.750 against teams below .500.
That’s what we’ve done seemingly every year since 2015 like hg says.
Problem is when you’re playing .750 against the riff raff, expectations stay high and, subconsciously, people expect the same no matter the opponent and a 4-6 stretch against Red Sox and cubs has people close to jumping.

i'm not sure it's even that simple (beat the bads, split with the goods).

we play shitty against shitty teams plenty often.  then we'll go get hot against good teams.

whether we win or lose seems totally on us, more specifically, our bats.  regardless of our opponent.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9369

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i'm not sure it's even that simple (beat the bads, split with the goods).
we play shitty against shitty teams plenty often.  then we'll go get hot against good teams.
whether we win or lose seems totally on us, more specifically, our bats.  regardless of our opponent.

You’re not wrong...but it kinda is that simple over the course of 162 games.
2018:
.519 vs teams that finished over .500
.747 vs teams that finished under

2017:
.545 vs teams that finished over .500
.643 vs teams that finished under


2016 (astros finished .519)
.432 vs above .500
.622 vs below .500

2015 (Astros finished .531)
.487 vs above .500
.571 vs below
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9369

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Speaking of Cubs. Eyeing the Monday game.
Should I jump on tickets now or do prices typically fall the closer it gets to gametime for a game like that (holiday weekend matchup/ marquee opponent)?

I assume stubhub/seatgeek/etc are the best options? Looking for decent seats, not view deck.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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25 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I haven't seen any. I was hoping he would get out on his rehab assignment this weekend and be ready in time for the Cubs series. 

Beginning to suspect he's been stranded on Weiland Island.  

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kevwun

kevwun 15595

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Speaking of Cubs. Eyeing the Monday game.
Should I jump on tickets now or do prices typically fall the closer it gets to gametime for a game like that (holiday weekend matchup/ marquee opponent)?

I assume stubhub/seatgeek/etc are the best options? Looking for decent seats, not view deck.

The MLB ballpark app is pretty slick and makes it easy to get tickets.  You should check it out. 

Edited by kevwun
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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76159

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

Speaking of Cubs. Eyeing the Monday game.
Should I jump on tickets now or do prices typically fall the closer it gets to gametime for a game like that (holiday weekend matchup/ marquee opponent)?

I assume stubhub/seatgeek/etc are the best options? Looking for decent seats, not view deck.

Prices aren’t coming down for a 1pm cubs game on Memorial Day (unless you’re just looking for a single) 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10478

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thank the fuck christ.

come on jose.

ugh, no brantley because sale.  we face 3 lefties this weekend.  may be time to start drinking.

Add Hamels and Lester for the 1st 2 Cubs games. 5 lefties in a row. We are hitting lefties better than righties this year. Let’s fuck em up.

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WBT

WBT 20397

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4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Add Hamels and Lester for the 1st 2 Cubs games. 5 lefties in a row. We are hitting lefties better than righties this year. Let’s fuck em up.

And lead mlb in wRC+ vs LHP by 15 points.  HG you need to let go whatever anecdotal evidence is stuck in your head.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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14 minutes ago, WBT said:

And lead mlb in wRC+ vs LHP by 15 points.  HG you need to let go whatever anecdotal evidence is stuck in your head.

what's our record vs lefties the past few years?

we had this same discussion last year.  our numbers are solid, mostly because we really fuck up the below avg lefties, but we don't seem to win games started by lefties.  if i'm remembering it right, we're slightly above .500 vs lefty starters.

i also don't love the way hinch arranges our lineup vs lhp, but that's neither here nor there.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

what's our record vs lefties the past few years?

we had this same discussion last year.  our numbers are solid, mostly because we really fuck up the below avg lefties, but we don't seem to win games started by lefties.  if i'm remembering it right, we're slightly above .500 vs lefty starters.

i also don't love the way hinch arranges our lineup vs lhp, but that's neither here nor there.

looks like we fixed it last year though: 37-23 (66-36 vs rhp) and this year (10-4) so i can let it go.

2017: 21-24

2016: 27-26

2015: 30-31

 

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Scraps

Scraps 13531

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what's our record vs lefties the past few years?
we had this same discussion last year.  our numbers are solid, mostly because we really fuck up the below avg lefties, but we don't seem to win games started by lefties.  if i'm remembering it right, we're slightly above .500 vs lefty starters.
i also don't love the way hinch arranges our lineup vs lhp, but that's neither here nor there.
30-31 in 2015
27-26 in 2016
21-24 in 2017
37-23 in 2018
10-4 so far this season

Soon to be 11-4
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