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This may be Kaplan's best work yet:

Inside the Astros Cutting-Edge Approach to Minor-League Pitching Development

 

Maybe it’s a byproduct of being undersized, but Brandon Bailey’s always been the type of athlete who craves more information.

Pitchers of Bailey’s profile, that of a 5-foot-9 right-hander, seldom reach the major leagues. Any little nugget of data could be the difference between him accomplishing his dream or stalling out in the high minors.

Like many others of his generation, Bailey was called to baseball’s analytics revolution. Five years ago, after his freshman year at Gonzaga University, he began training at Driveline Baseball in suburban Seattle, where he was first introduced to data-driven development. In January 2016, six months before he was drafted in the sixth round by the Athletics, he threw in front of a high-speed camera for the first time.

 

When Bailey was traded to the Astros ahead of the 2018 season, it was a perfect marriage of an intellectually curious athlete and a progressive organization. For years, Houston has been at the forefront of leveraging pitch-tracking data and technology to accentuate pitchers’ strengths. Bailey, now a 24-year-old starter in Double A, learned as much on his first day of spring training last year.

“When I got here, I was just blown away by how far advanced and ahead Houston was just in terms of combining technology along with the old-school style of player development,” Bailey said. “They merge them together and then morphed it into this really innovative way of thinking about how to develop pitchers.”

At the start of every spring training, the Astros present each pitcher in their system with an individualized development plan for the upcoming season. The team will have already analyzed all of the available information about a pitcher from TrackMan, a radar-based tracking system, and the coaches will come armed with suggestions for how the pitcher can better utilize his repertoire. They might recommend adding or dropping a particular pitch or altering the mechanics of his delivery. Take Bailey, for example. He came to the Astros on the heels of two successful seasons in the lower levels of the Athletics’ system. Because of his performance, the A’s more or less left him alone. His focus was the usual — fastball command. 

But upon reporting in February 2018 to the Astros’ complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Bailey was given a completely revamped plan of attack. His introduction to the Astros’ holistic approach came on Day 1 in a meeting with their two minor-league pitching coordinators at the time, Josh Miller and Chris Holt. Bailey learned he had a lot to refine.

Miller and Holt emphasized to Bailey that his four-seam fastball has an elite spin rate — the quality that creates the illusion to a hitter that the pitch is rising. His curveball, however, needed work so he could throw it out of the same tunnel as his fastball, a staple of Houston’s pitching philosophy. Bailey had developed his curveball the previous season with a grip that was essentially self-taught. He left his first day as an Astro with a new spike-curve grip and instructions on how to use all four laces to his advantage to create more depth.

Bailey’s experience is symbolic of the Astros’ cutting-edge processes in player development dating to about 2015.

“The coaches have done a really good job of identifying how to work with each individual athlete,” said Jeff Luhnow, who’s in his eighth season as the Astros’ general manager. “We’ve always said that there’s no one-size-fits-all approach to player development. It’s especially so in today’s world because you really can customize a player development plan for each athlete, and that’s what we do and that’s what we’ve been doing for the past three or four years. And I think our (coaches) have enough experience doing it now and our players trust our coaches and are willing to go ahead and take the plunge and try something new.”

At the major-league level, the Astros, under pitching coach Brent Strom, have developed a reputation for unlocking pitchers whose repertoires weren’t maximized elsewhere. But for every Charlie Morton or Ryan Pressly, there are countless minor leaguers who can also stand to improve their deliveries and the qualities of their pitches or alter their pitch usage.

The Astros don’t wait for pitchers to reach the majors or even Double A before using data and technology to analyze the qualities of their pitches. The process begins as soon as they enter the system. And at every level of the organization, pitchers are trained to pitch to a game plan that’s based off TrackMan information that has been distilled by their internal interface.

“I think they gather the most information and do the best job of applying it where it needs to be applied,” Triple-A left-hander Kent Emanuel said. “It just gives the pitchers great attack plans. It lets us really have an advantage going into a mano-a-mano situation, where it’s pitcher against the batter.”

Their staggering system-wide strikeout totals from last season are no coincidence. Consider the following:

— Not only did the 2018 Astros lead the majors in total strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings, but also their minor-league affiliates all the way from short-season Single A to Triple A led their leagues in the same categories. Their low-A affiliate, the Quad Cities River Bandits of the Midwest League, set a minor-league record for total strikeouts in a season with 1,514, surpassing the 2017 Triple-A Durham Bulls’ record by 93.

— Of the 53 minor leaguers who struck out at least 10 batters per nine last season (minimum 100 innings), 11 pitched in Houston’s system. That includes Héctor Pérez and Patrick Sandoval, who were traded in July. Josh James led the minors with 13.5 strikeouts per nine across stints in Double A and Triple A.

— The ’18 strikeout totals were built without much help from former first-round draft picks. Forrest Whitley, their 2016 first-rounder and top overall prospect, pitched only 26 1/3 innings in 2018 because of his 50-game suspension and lat and oblique injuries. J.B. Bukauskas, their 2017 first-rounder, logged only 59 innings because of a slipped disc in his back he suffered in a spring training car accident.

— Almost two months into the 2019 season, the Astros’ High-A and Low-A affiliates again lead their leagues in strikeouts per nine innings. High-A Fayetteville’s 11.4 per nine through Wednesday’s games was 1.7 better than the next-best team in the Carolina League. Double-A Corpus Christi came into Thursday tied for second in the Texas League with 9.8 per nine. Triple-A Round Rock was the lone straggler. The Express entered Thursday tied for seventh in the 16-team Pacific Coast League with 8.9 strikeouts per nine.

Detractors of the Astros around the industry — and they have many — will cite their lack of homegrown pitchers contributing in the majors. And it is true that of their current five starters, only rookie Corbin Martin was developed by the Astros. Their two best starters, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and their two best relievers, Pressly and Roberto Osuna, were acquired via trade.

But that discounts the value they’ve added to pitchers who are still working their way through the minors or who have already been traded. The Astros have parlayed several of their intriguing minor-league arms into trade chips. Franklin Pérez was the centerpiece of the three-prospect package they sent the Tigers for Verlander and they turned Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman into Brian McCann.

Last July alone, they moved Jorge Alcala in the Pressly deal, Hector Pérez as part of their package for Osuna and Sandoval for Martín Maldonado. In November, they flipped Trent Thornton for Aledmys Díaz. They have plenty more young power arms they could deal ahead of this summer’s trade deadline.

So what’s behind all of the strikeouts? The Astros are, not surprisingly, secretive about certain details of their player development processes. But conversations with more than 15 current and former Astros minor-league pitchers and catchers, as well as executives, coaches and scouts around the game paint a picture of how Houston has developed so much swing-and-miss ability in its farm system.

Whether or not they want to admit it, the Astros have a type. They love four-seam fastballs and they love high spin rates.

“You don’t see too many guys with two-seamers,” said Double-A catcher Chuckie Robinson, who’s been in their system since 2016. “And if they do have one it’s disgusting. It’s like abnormally good.”

If a pitcher comes into their system with both a four-seam and a two-seam fastball, there’s a good chance the Astros will have him ditch the latter. They have a vast majority of their pitchers focus on their four-seamers and strive to develop backspin, which is what creates the effect commonly referred to as “ride” or “hop.”

From instructional league through Triple A, their coaches work with pitchers to stay behind the ball and eliminate running or tailing action. TrackMan relays a pitcher’s spin axis by way of a clock face where 12 o’clock represents true backspin. Slow-motion video captured by high-speed cameras can show a pitcher when his ball features end-over-end rotation.

“I remember the first day I threw with Brandon Bielak when we got drafted, our balls were tailing, cutting,” said Corbin Martin, who the Astros drafted 56th overall in 2017 in part because of his TrackMan numbers at Texas A&M. “I wouldn’t say it was sloppy. It was just like we didn’t know any better. And like two weeks later, you start seeing changes.”

Like in the majors, the Astros encourage their minor-league pitchers to utilize the top of the strike zone with their fastballs and teach them how to throw their breaking balls out of the same tunnel. Their system is filled with pitchers with what you hear referred to as “hoppy four-seamers” and hammer breaking balls. In last year’s draft, all four of the pitchers they took in the first eight rounds fit this profile. The trend will likely continue with next week’s draft class.

“They take your strengths and they try to amplify (them) as much as possible,” said Double-A reliever Colin McKee, a former 18th-round pick who has translated his fastball-slider combo into 43 strikeouts in his first 27 1/3 innings this season. “They obviously draft you for a reason. They think you’re good at stuff and they try to make those all the more important in your repertoire and you just try to maximize that every day.”

Brandon-Bailey-1024x683.jpg
 
Brandon Bailey was introduced to the Astros’ way of developing pitchers on his first day of spring training in 2018. (Olivia Rook/Corpus Christi Hooks)

Before games, the pitching coach at each Astros affiliate meets with that night’s starting pitcher and catcher for a game-planning meeting similar to how Strom operates in the majors. They will evaluate extensive hot and cold zones of the opposing hitters from TrackMan and mesh that data with the strengths of the pitcher. Some of the catchers wear wristbands that contain the information. Others have cheat sheets in the dugout they can refer to between innings. 

Unpredictability is key, and the convention of establishing your fastball the first time through the order and working off that is ignored if it doesn’t suit the pitcher’s strengths. A pitcher might go kitchen sink from the get-go and throw all of his pitches to the first batter of the game. If any other organization throws a higher percentage of breaking balls this season, it would be a major upset.

“I think, honestly, it’s just like an organizational-wide mentality,” McKee said. “We know we have good stuff. You see home run rates are up and everything. What’s a way to beat home runs? Don’t let them hit the ball.”

Any pitcher drafted or signed into the Astros’ system in 2016 or later has never experienced pro ball without TrackMan. Those at affiliates in 2015 were formally introduced to it via a PowerPoint presentation. The emphasis on Trackman and understanding of its benefits increased as the team gained more experience with the technology.

Originally invented for the purpose of tracking golf swings, TrackMan has been prevalent in baseball for years. It’s used by MLB as a component of its Statcast system. Every ballpark is outfitted with a system, though MLB will soon switch to Hawk-Eye’s optical technology, as The Athletic’s Eno Sarris reported recently.

Every team has access to TrackMan numbers, and the Astros were far from the first team to invest in the technology, which expanded to baseball in 2008. It’s believed they were among the second wave of teams to get it into their ballpark. They installed it at Minute Maid Park in 2012, Luhnow’s first season as GM. In the subsequent two seasons, they rolled it out to their minor-league parks. 

The Astros recognized early the value of having players work with it from rookie ball through Triple A. After they had collected a few seasons of data and better understood how to apply it, they began to base some of their instruction in the minors around the TrackMan numbers. 

How the data is conveyed is instrumental. For pitchers, TrackMan is used to track velocities, spin rates, extension and much more. Early on, some pitchers considered the amount of information to be overwhelming. Now it’s almost like a second language.

Additionally, the Astros’ internal TrackMan interface is believed to be particularly advanced and navigable. They protect it like it’s classified government information. In the early years, pitchers weren’t allowed to take home the printouts coaches made for them. Even now, pitchers can access their data only with the direct assistance of a coach.

Three or four years of trial and error has taught the Astros a lot regarding best practices in applying TrackMan data. They’ve run down some dead ends that other teams probably have yet to encounter. It’s unclear how MLB’s switch to Hawk-Eye will impact their processes, but teams should be able to translate data from one system to the other.

“We tend to have a forward-looking front office that’s trying to take advantage of emerging technologies,” Luhnow said. “We will sometimes be on the bleeding edge, where we might try something before everybody else and it might not work and it might cause some pushback. But at the same time, because we tend to try things first, in some cases we do get the advantage.”

The Edgertronic high-speed cameras are a prime example. The Astros were the first team to realize the camera’s potential benefits in player development. Their investment dates to at least 2016, when they brought an Edgertronic to their affiliates for specific players of interest to use. In 2017, it became a staple of Astros player development.

The slow-motion video captured by the cameras shows a pitcher how the ball is coming out of his hand at release and its rotation as it spins toward the plate. A pitcher can use it to tweak his grip and wrist position in an effort to generate more efficient spin. When a pitcher is throwing a bullpen session, a coach can pair the camera with a portable unit like Rapsodo, which will give real-time spin measurements.

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Triple-A starter Rogelio Armenteros throws a bullpen session in April at Dell Diamond in Round Rock as Triple-A pitching coach Drew French (left) observes and Astros director of player development Pete Putila (right) operates an Edgertronic camera. (Jake Kaplan/The Athletic)

Four or five hours before a game, the pitching coach at a given affiliate will lug one of these cameras on a tripod to the outfield, where the pitchers have their daily throwing program. Pitchers will throw not only their bullpen sessions in front of it, but some use it when tossing on flat ground. They can study video of their grip and wrist position when the pitch moved as they intended it to, and view it side by side with video of a pitch that didn’t.

The Astros also collect slow-motion video from game action. Since the 2017 season, they have had their minor-league ballparks decked out with Edgertronic cameras set up at roughly six to eight angles.

These cameras, priced at $6,495 a piece, have become so popular among major-league front offices that their inventor, Sanstreak Corp., now sends representatives to baseball’s winter meetings. Since the cameras were first shipped to customers in December 2013, Sanstreak Founder and CEO Mike Matter estimated that more than 25 percent of camera sales have been to baseball teams. More recently, according to Matter, that number has been 70 to 80 percent.

“We try to maintain a healthy level of paranoia and try to keep chasing new opportunities … which we know sometimes leads to bumps and bruises along the way in trying to integrate new technology or new processes,” Astros director of player development Pete Putila said. “We just try to keep pushing because the info gets proliferated at some point one way or another.”

Brent Strom’s influence on the Astros extends far beyond the dozens of pitchers he’s worked with in Houston over the last six seasons.

The septuagenarian pitching coach with seemingly boundless energy sets the tone for the entire organization’s pitching program. His philosophies about deliveries and his emphasis on four-seamers up and breaking balls down are imparted throughout the system.

With their minor-league pitching coaches, the Astros have essentially a small army of mini Stroms to spread his ideology from rookie ball to Triple A. Like Strom, these coaches are forward-thinking, open-minded and have a healthy appetite for new information. Unlike the 70-year-old Strom, the oldest pitching coach in the majors, the Astros minor-league pitching gurus aren’t much older than their pitchers.

The average age of the pitching coaches at the Astros’ four full-season affiliates is only 33. The oldest, Erick Abreu, the pitching coach for the low-A Quad Cities affiliate, is only 35 and is also the only one of the four who played professional baseball.

The other three full-season affiliate pitching coaches came to the Astros from the collegiate ranks — 33-year-old Drew French, in Triple A, from Division II Lee University (Tenn.), 34-year-old Graham Johnson, in Double A, from Morehead State University (Kent.) and 30-year-old Thomas Whitsett, in High A, from the University of Arizona.

Each reports to someone even younger — Bill Murphy, the organization’s minor-league pitching coordinator. At 29, Murphy has only a year on the oldest pitcher to appear in a minor-league game for the Astros this season, Brady Rodgers. He’s in his first season in his role, having replaced Josh Miller, now the Astros’ bullpen coach.

Murphy’s in only his fourth season working in professional baseball, all with the Astros. He joined their player development staff ahead of the 2016 season after a year and a half as the pitching coach at Brown University. He shot through their system, from rookie ball in 2016 to short-season Single A in 2017 to Double A in 2018 before his most recent promotion in the offseason.

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Bill Murphy is in his first season as the Astros’ minor-league pitching coordinator after working last season as their pitching coach in Double-A Corpus Christi. (Charlie Blalock/Corpus Christi Hooks)

Like most of the coaches he oversees, Murphy didn’t pitch beyond the collegiate level. A New Jersey native, he has a psychology degree from Rutgers University and a masters degree in business management from Wagner College. His goal was to coach at the college ranks and see how far he could take it. Then he spotted a link to an interesting job posting while perusing Twitter and went for it. 

Murphy exemplifies the profile of a coach the Astros seek in this data-driven age. He is tech savvy and fluent in TrackMan. If his lack of experience prompted any skepticism from his pitchers, the organization’s results and the changing times have alleviated it.

“Probably at first people were a little speculative, I would imagine, just because that’s human nature. But I think it comes back to the adage of ‘Do you care about the players?'” Murphy said. “And I think that the players understand that I am there to try to help them out the best I possibly can and my simple goal is to help them achieve their dream of getting to the big leagues. It’s as simple as that.”

If every team has access to TrackMan information, the trick to gaining an advantage is to communicate it to players better than the competition. The minor-league pitching coaches the Astros have hired are willing to push the organization’s philosophies, can help translate the X-Y graphs on TrackMan for the players and advertise to them the benefits of new-age tools.

Hours before a game, it’s not uncommon to see an Edgertronic camera or even a laptop stationed on the field just behind the stadium mound, where pitchers sometimes throw their between-outing bullpen sessions to get readings from the ballpark’s TrackMan system as opposed to a portable unit like Rapsodo or portable version of TrackMan.

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Double-A pitching coach Graham Johnson (left) works with pitcher Brandon Bielak (right) before a game in April at Whataburger Field in Corpus Christi. (Jake Kaplan/The Athletic)

Every day, the pitching coach holds one-on-one review meetings with every pitcher who appeared in the previous game. They will analyze everything from pitch velocities and pitch shapes via the TrackMan data to the hand and wrist positions on their various pitches as captured by the Edgertronic cameras.

The shift toward this profile of Astros minor-league pitching coach dates to 2016, the year the organization first experimented with development coaches in the minors. These coaches were tech-savvy compliments to the manager, pitching and hitting coaches at the affiliates, helping both their colleagues on the staff and the players to understand and utilize TrackMan.

They employed two development coaches during that 2016 season, Aaron DelGiudice for Triple A and High A and Tommy Kawamura for Double A and Low A. It’s perhaps telling that both now work in baseball operations in Houston, DelGiudice as an amateur scouting analyst and Kawamura as part of the advance scouting crew that travels with the major-league team.

In 2017, the Astros expanded the model to include a development coach on the staff of every minor-league affiliate. They found it so valuable that while the position no longer exists, it spawned the profile the Astros now seek for their minor-league pitching and hitting coaches. Each is trained to be an expert in the data and technology the organization bases its instruction around.

While every day at various ballparks across the country they strive to emulate Strom’s quest to drive innovation,  the Astros’ minor-league pitching coaches also pay homage to him on a regular basis.

Each has a T-shirt designed by Holt, the former Astros assistant pitching coordinator and now the Orioles’ minor-league pitching coordinator, that is telling of Strom’s stature in the organization. “The Stromfather,” it reads in orange font, with a photo of the pitching coach in place of Don Vito Corleone’s.

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(Jake Kaplan/The Athletic)

The strikeout totals among Astros minor-league pitchers don’t reach the astronomical levels of 2018 without the top-to-bottom alignment Luhnow has built in the organization. Houston has achieved a level of continuity between amateur scouting and player development that their competitors envy.

Creating that synergy has been a gradual process that has taken years.

“It takes a while,” said Luhnow, who was hired to lead the Astros in December 2011. “My personal story was when I ran (amateur) scouting for the Cardinals, I was at times frustrated because the profile of the types of players that we were drafting weren’t exactly aligned with the profile of the types of players that the Cardinals were developing. Not that it led to any big crisis, but you just weren’t taking advantage of that.

“I ended up taking over the player development department over there, and so a lot of the work that was done was trying to create consistent methods across scouting and player development that would allow us to take athletes and turn them into major-league players as soon as possible. So that entire mindset has always been part of how I want to see things operate.”

The Astros’ alignment also allows their front office to push research findings quickly from their Houston-based analytics team to the coaches and players at their various affiliates and also to their amateur and international scouting staffs. Putila, the director of player development, is the middle man. The 30-year-old spends much of his season traveling to the affiliates and working with coaches and players to ensure their processes are running smoothly. He is also the man in charge of vetting potential new technologies for the team to use in player development. The only member of Luhnow’s front office who was hired by former GM Ed Wade, Putila has risen from the level of intern to assistant to coordinator to director.

“Pete has an incredible ability to get up to speed quickly on new technology and to try and appreciate whether or not it’s going to be practical to implement,” Luhnow said. “He leverages (the analytics team) to sort of do the regressions or do the study or whatever needs to be done to validate, but then he really is the key person to try to develop a program that we can roll out into the minor leagues.”

TrackMan has guided the Astros’ decisions in domestic and international scouting for several years now. Whitley was a TrackMan darling because of his combination of velocity and spin in his five-pitch arsenal, and Astros officials regard the 17th overall pick in 2016 as their “first TrackMan first-rounder.” The data on him was limited because he was a high school pitcher. But they managed to piece together some TrackMan information from various summer events and state tournament games that were played at ballparks outfitted with the technology. Their amateur scouting department also had in its toolbox by then an Edgertronic camera, from which spin rate can be reverse engineered. The department developed a proxy to measure Whitley’s spin, the accuracy of which it confirmed later.

The Astros’ understanding of the types of qualities in pitches to target was refined by their biggest draft blunder. After the failure of 2013 top overall pick Mark Appel, they were forced to take a look in the mirror and reevaluate their approach.

Appel could dial up his fastball to the upper 90s. But if the Astros understood TrackMan data in 2013 like they would a few years later, would the fact that Appel’s fastball was relatively flat have steered them away? It’s unclear, as his slider still would have graded out as a plus pitch and they couldn’t have predicted his changeup would regress as much as it did in pro ball, but it’s an interesting thought experiment.

“If we would re-do drafts (from) before we were using TrackMan to help guide decisions, we would’ve had some different choices along the way for sure,” Luhnow said. “I do think scouts are pretty good at identifying elite tools in amateurs, but the technology can actually give you valuable information that the scouts don’t necessarily have.

“I don’t want to focus on any one player. But when you’re able to get the technology in the amateur space, which wasn’t really available back then, you see differences that you might not have picked up with your traditional scouting approaches.”

As the Astros’ reliance on technology has increased, their number of scouts in the field has decreased. Their 2019 media guide lists only seven amateur area scouts, two cross-checkers and senior scouting advisor Charlie Gonzalez under domestic scouting supervisor Kris Gross. They have two Houston-based amateur scouting analysts plus one dedicated video technician tasked with collecting video of prospects around the country. Their international staff under department manager Eve Rosenbaum consists of an assistant director, two scouting supervisors, four traditional scouts and four video scouts.

“So many guys in the Astros’ organization have very similar stuff, I think that’s why they go out and draft those type of guys because they know what they’re looking for and they can enhance their repertoires,” said former Astros minor-leaguer Trent Thornton, now a starter for the Blue Jays.

“That’s why the Astros drafted me, because I have a good spin rate. You look at Whitley and Bukauskas and all the big-name guys, they all have good spin rates on all of their pitches. It’s worked for them.”

Brady Rodgers has witnessed the Astros’ evolution in pitcher development firsthand. The 28-year-old right-hander has pitched in parts of eight minor-league seasons for his hometown organization since he was drafted in the third round in 2012.

“When I was drafted, it was more of pitchers had their pitches and it was kind of just ‘do what you’ve been doing that’s gotten you drafted and why the Astros liked you,'” he said. “And then what I’ve noticed over the years is they’re more hands-on now than I feel like they used to be and developing not only just the pitchers but developing pitches for new pitchers.

“Some guys come here and they only throw a quality fastball. Then they develop a curveball and it turns out to be a banger. They’re really good at developing the pitchers to develop pitches, too.”

Bailey, again, is a good example. He’s spent much of his first two seasons in the Astros’ organization developing two breaking balls to complement his fastball and changeup, the combo that has been his bread and butter since college. Last season in High A and Double A, he focused on the spike curve. This season in Double A, it’s the slider. He’s been using video from the Edgertronic camera to study how the ball comes out of his hand as he searches for the right amount of sweeping movement.

“We use a tool like Rapsodo, which tells you some really good information about what the pitch is currently doing in terms of how it’s spinning, and then you can take that information and use the camera to try and figure out how you can make the ball spin even better,” he said.

“For me, it’s a process of not only feeling how it is coming out of my hand and what feels good versus what doesn’t feel so good but then also trying to look at video and see what my good reps were versus my bad ones, and then try and figure out how I can be as consistent as possible on the good ones.”

In the coming weeks, a new crop of pitchers from the draft will begin the process Bailey started last season. They will learn about TrackMan and Edgertronic cameras. Coaches will work with them to produce backspin and elevate their fastballs. The data will guide them, as will whatever new technology the Astros invest in next.

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,482

Posted
Posted (edited)

I posted this on the MLB thread but wanted to share it here as well

Real Sports did a piece on foul ball injuries a few years back. it showed that paying attention isn't really enough. i can't find the whole segment but the trailer gives you an idea.

 

Edited by TonyTexas
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,310

Posted
Posted (edited)

Re: Kaplan article

Good info...and point taken about their ability to flip some pitchers they've developed to improve the big league roster...

But at some point they are going to need to produce a good starter. The Astros had 4 pitchers who were top-100 prospects before this season started: Whitley, Martin, James, Bukauskas. Martin has shown promise, and you can forgive struggling in his first few MLB games; James has been pretty bad, even in relief; and Whitley and Bukauskas have been really bad in the minors. All this after Martes, Appel, etc. 

Not sure how to factor in guys like Musgrove, Folty, et al - starters with other clubs who impacted their development. 

Given that Strom/org has worked well with pitchers at the big-league level, I assume that the failings of our top pitching prospects has been mostly bad luck...

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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mycox

mycox 582

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

no.  i'm fine with him being fat.  there have been fat baseball players before.

the most egregious thing is that he's fat, but somehow he's a slap hitter.  his biggest hits this year (all 5 of them) have been bloop singles or well placed doubles.  we're talking about a guy slugging .303 here.  german marquez is slugging .363 and he's a pitcher.  he's the first pitcher i looked up because i have him in fantasy and saw he hit a triple the other day.

marquez has 9 rbi in 26 plate appearances.  white has 8 rbi in 125 pa.  white has 7 xbh and we're 1/3 of the way thru the season.

in the old days, the brewers or orioles or whomever would have some slow pitch softball looking guys.  they would hit .212 and knock 25-30 homers, and that's who they were.  white is fat and slow and can't hit homers.  i just don't understand what the point is anymore.  gattis off the street would be an improvement tomorrow.

John Kruk was the best.

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Lat22

Lat22 3,994

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, jkates said:

Of course, fans and children at baseball games need to be protected, of course. The netting could be extended, without significantly interfering with the game experience, and at a relatively low cost. Of course. 

But maybe...

Maybe if you bring your kid to a game, sit in a rocket zone, and don't pay attention, it's a tiny bit your fault.

This.  

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rvm96

rvm96 1,643

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Re: Kaplan article

Good info...and point taken about their ability to flip some pitchers they've developed to improve the big league roster...

But at some point they are going to need to produce a good starter. The Astros had 4 pitchers who were top-100 prospects before this season started: Whitley, Martin, James, Bukauskas. Martin has shown promise, and you can forgive struggling in his first few MLB games; James has been pretty bad, even in relief; and Whitley and Bukauskas have been really bad in the minors. All this after Martes, Appel, etc. 

Not sure how to factor in guys like Musgrove, Folty, et al - starters with other clubs who impacted their development. 

Given that Strom/org has worked well with pitchers at the big-league level, I assume that the failings of our top pitching prospects has been mostly bad luck...

Bukauskas had a couple bad outings to start the year, but he has shown reasons for optimism.

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formermav43

formermav43 4,599

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17 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Re: Kaplan article

Good info...and point taken about their ability to flip some pitchers they've developed to improve the big league roster...

But at some point they are going to need to produce a good starter. The Astros had 4 pitchers who were top-100 prospects before this season started: Whitley, Martin, James, Bukauskas. Martin has shown promise, and you can forgive struggling in his first few MLB games; James has been pretty bad, even in relief; and Whitley and Bukauskas have been really bad in the minors. All this after Martes, Appel, etc. 

Not sure how to factor in guys like Musgrove, Folty, et al - starters with other clubs who impacted their development. 

Given that Strom/org has worked well with pitchers at the big-league level, I assume that the failings of our top pitching prospects has been mostly bad luck...

The 4 guys you named are all really young still (James, if not in age, in experience. And he came out of nowhere last year, if anything he works against your point). Appel was before they revolutionized their approach. Martes got hurt.

Also, just like last time you made a post like this, you forgot McCullers.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6,310

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28 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

The 4 guys you named are all really young still (James, if not in age, in experience. And he came out of nowhere last year, if anything he works against your point). Appel was before they revolutionized their approach. Martes got hurt.

Also, just like last time you made a post like this, you forgot McCullers.

I didn't forget McCullers (this time) - was commenting on the latest group of highly-touted pitching prospects (if Appel was before they revolutionized their approach, then McCullers was way before it). Mentioned Musgrove/Folty to acknowledge that the club had contributed (to some degree) to their development into legit starters.

Martes is hurt, but he'd be missing time anyway due to his PED suspension, and he hasn't pitched well at any level since 2016 in AA. 

James doesn't work against my point. I get what you're saying - he came out of nowhere to become a legit prospect, and credit goes to he and the club for that. But my point wasn't that they struggle to develop good prospects, it's that they haven't developed good MLB starters. And yeah, he or any of the other guys may emerge - the book isn't written on any of them yet, and certainly there is reason for optimism for all of them. 

I'm not saying they can't develop pitching, or that their system doesn't work - I actually wrote the opposite, attributing lack of success to bad luck. 

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3,747

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No Ribbing About Carlos Correa's Bizarre Injury

By Jay Jaffe

 

Owners of the majors’ fourth-best record (37-20) and second-best run differential (+92), the Astros have been humming along in typical powerhouse fashion, but a recent rash of injuries is testing their depth. In a 15-day span they sent Jose Altuve, Collin McHugh, George Springer, Max Stassi, and Aledmys Diaz to the injured list, all for comparatively mundane-sounding injuries to muscles and joints. On Wednesday they gave us something new, namely the news that Carlos Correahad suffered a fractured rib while receiving a massage at his home, which will sideline him for four to six weeks.

It’s a bizarre injury worthy of a Jayson Stark column, and one that set off speculation as to its veracity, to say nothing of the jokes. Unlike the Mets’ handling of Yoenis Cespedes’ recent eyebrow-raising ankle fractures, which the outfielder suffered on his ranch, the Astros gave no hint that Correa’s injury was the result of any mischief. Via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan:

 

“Players do a lot of things outside of the field that we’re never aware of or not aware of. Everybody’s trying to get better in their own way, and I’m sure he was receiving treatment for specific reasons,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said. “It’s unfortunate that it happened that way, but we’re concerned right now mostly about getting him back. He’s going to have to rest for a little bit, let the bones heal and get back to doing the physical activity that will help him be back on the field.”

Correa issued his own statement:

“I’m extremely disappointed about not being on the field with my teammates. I sustained the rib fracture during a massage at my home on Tuesday. To sustain an injury in such an unusual way makes it even more frustrating. However, I will work hard to get back on the field as quickly as possible to help our team achieve our goal of winning another championship.”

Your mileage may vary, but as I can imagine where an overly aggressive masseuse applying too much pressure to a client lying on his or her stomach might conceivably cause such an injury, or exacerbate a minor, previously unidentified hairline fracture, I’ll take the above explanations at face value and move on.

Correa was in the midst of a very strong season, batting .295/.360/.547 (142 wRC+) with 11 homers. In just 50 games, he had already nosed past last year’s 1.7 WAR, set in a season in which he played 110 games and missed a month and a half due to a lower back injury. Alas, this is the third straight year in which the 2012 number one overall pick will miss a significant amount of time due to injury; in 2017, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament of his left thumb, which required surgery and caused him to miss nearly seven weeks. Thus far, the 2016 season is the only one out of five in which he’s played more than 110 games, though if he returns without further setbacks — July 11, the first day after the All-Star break, would be right at the six-week mark — he could still play as many as 122.
 
It’s striking how much time Correa has lost relative to fellow shortstop Francisco Lindor, who debuted just six days after him (June 8 and June 14, 2015) and had never been on the disabled or injured list until this spring, when he spent 26 days on the IL due to a left calf strain:
 
Francisco Lindor vs. Carlos Correa, 2015-19
Player G PA HR wRC+ WAR
Lindor 611 2757 105 120 23.8
Correa 521 2255 92 129 17.2
Difference 90 502 13 9 6.6

Obviously, that gap will only widen in the coming weeks, and could be around three-quarters of a season’s difference. That said, most of the gap in value actually owes to Lindor’s superior defense (42.5 runs to -15.8 via UZR, 46 to -2 via DRS).

Correa’s injury comes at a particularly inopportune time, as four of the Astros’ top eight hitters by wRC+ are sidelined:

 
Top Astros Hitters, 2019
Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ IL Date Injury
George Springer 216 17 .308 .389 .643 172 May 25 Left hamstring strain
Alex Bregman 242 17 .270 .393 .571 157    
Michael Brantley 233 10 .330 .386 .547 152    
Carlos Correa 214 11 .295 .360 .547 142 May 29 Fractured rib
Jake Marisnick 118 6 .271 .333 .533 132    
Robinson Chirinos 161 6 .236 .371 .457 127    
Aledmys Diaz 109 5 .286 .321 .510 118 May 27 Left hamstring strain
Jose Altuve 164 9 .243 .329 .472 116 May 11 Left hamstring strain
Josh Reddick 198 4 .311 .360 .424 113    

That’s not what you want. Altuve’s stay on the IL was supposed to be a relatively brief one, but after playing just two games on a rehab assignment, he returned to Houston to undergo re-evaluation due to fatigue and soreness in his right leg, in which he had a patellar avulsion fracture repaired last October. Springer’s injury was reported as a Grade 2 hamstring strain, which generally means at least a four-week absence. Thus far, there has been no mention of the severity of Diaz’s injury, though given that the five-position supersub had been playing second base in Altuve’s absence, his loss is a big hit to the Astros’ depth.

Earlier this week, Ben Clemens crunched the numbers and found that even if one were to exclude the team’s top four hitters (of which only two are actually missing), the rest of the Astros had hit for a 106 wRC+ in 2019. But one can’t take that performance as a forecast. The track records of Marisnick and Chirinos say they won’t maintain this level of production, and even Brantley and Bregman are well ahead of their career norms. The lighter-hitting players who will soak up the plate appearances of the missing mashers are more likely to erode the team’s offensive level than to maintain it.

As far as how manager A.J. Hinch can piece together his lineup, the Astros have cultivated versatility throughout their roster, which can lessen the sting but won’t make it go away. Bregman, who was drafted as a shortstop and saw the bulk of his minor league duty there, has manned the position ably enough in Correa’s absences, though his defense has been a step down (-3.4 UZR, -5 DRS in 52 starts and 71 total games). Myles Straw, who placed 17th on the team’s top prospect list this spring, could get a closer look as well; a 24-year-old righty with 70-grade speed but 20-grade game power, he’s a converted outfielder who took up the new positionat Triple-A Round Rock spring, has been recalled and could get a closer look as well. Yuli Gurriel, who has underperformed with the bat (.261/.298/.409, 90 wRC+), has started 41 of the team’s 57 games at first base plus eight of 10 at third base when Bregman hasn’t started; he figures to see the bulk of the hot corner duty when Bregman plays shortstop. Outfielder Tony Kemp, who started his professional carer as a second baseman, has played a total of 20 major league games there including eight this season; after a breakthrough last year (295 PA, 110 wRC+), he’s scuffled this year (92 PA, 82 wRC+).

That shuffling within the infield exposes backup first baseman Tyler White, who like Kemp has been unable to replicate last year’s breakthrough (237 PA and 144 wRC+ in 2018, 125 PA and 70 wRC+ in 2019), but the Astros do have additional cards to play. The team experimented with both Brantley and Reddick at first base during spring training, and if 25-year-old Derek Fisher — who has hit for just a 75 wRC+ in 269 PA since 2017, but has just 17 PA this year — can’t get going, then opportunity could knock for Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez. The 22-year-old Tucker, who similarly struggled last year but placed 10th overall on our top prospects list this spring, is hitting .261/.341/.596 at Round Rock, while the 21-year-old Alvarez, whom Dan Szymborski recently examined more closely, is lighting up the PCL (.361/.446/.759) after starting the year 125th on our list; he’s even got some experience at first base, though he graded as a 30 present/40 future fielder this past spring.

Collectively, that’s a better set of options than most teams can muster, and given that the Astros just placed fifth on our pre-draft farm system rankings, it’s clear that they’ve got a wealth of talent to deal from if they need to acquire a more substantial solution. On the other side of the ball, they’ve also got outstanding run prevention, ranking second in the AL in both ERA (3.42) and FIP (3.79). Losing Correa for a chunk of yet another season is hardly ideal, but as with the recent past, they’re built to withstand this. They’ll be fine.
 

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texashorne

texashorne 1,177

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1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

No Ribbing About Carlos Correa's Bizarre Injury

By Jay Jaffe

 

  Hide contents

 

Owners of the majors’ fourth-best record (37-20) and second-best run differential (+92), the Astros have been humming along in typical powerhouse fashion, but a recent rash of injuries is testing their depth. In a 15-day span they sent Jose Altuve, Collin McHugh, George Springer, Max Stassi, and Aledmys Diaz to the injured list, all for comparatively mundane-sounding injuries to muscles and joints. On Wednesday they gave us something new, namely the news that Carlos Correahad suffered a fractured rib while receiving a massage at his home, which will sideline him for four to six weeks.

It’s a bizarre injury worthy of a Jayson Stark column, and one that set off speculation as to its veracity, to say nothing of the jokes. Unlike the Mets’ handling of Yoenis Cespedes’ recent eyebrow-raising ankle fractures, which the outfielder suffered on his ranch, the Astros gave no hint that Correa’s injury was the result of any mischief. Via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan:

 

“Players do a lot of things outside of the field that we’re never aware of or not aware of. Everybody’s trying to get better in their own way, and I’m sure he was receiving treatment for specific reasons,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said. “It’s unfortunate that it happened that way, but we’re concerned right now mostly about getting him back. He’s going to have to rest for a little bit, let the bones heal and get back to doing the physical activity that will help him be back on the field.”

Correa issued his own statement:

“I’m extremely disappointed about not being on the field with my teammates. I sustained the rib fracture during a massage at my home on Tuesday. To sustain an injury in such an unusual way makes it even more frustrating. However, I will work hard to get back on the field as quickly as possible to help our team achieve our goal of winning another championship.”

Your mileage may vary, but as I can imagine where an overly aggressive masseuse applying too much pressure to a client lying on his or her stomach might conceivably cause such an injury, or exacerbate a minor, previously unidentified hairline fracture, I’ll take the above explanations at face value and move on.

Correa was in the midst of a very strong season, batting .295/.360/.547 (142 wRC+) with 11 homers. In just 50 games, he had already nosed past last year’s 1.7 WAR, set in a season in which he played 110 games and missed a month and a half due to a lower back injury. Alas, this is the third straight year in which the 2012 number one overall pick will miss a significant amount of time due to injury; in 2017, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament of his left thumb, which required surgery and caused him to miss nearly seven weeks. Thus far, the 2016 season is the only one out of five in which he’s played more than 110 games, though if he returns without further setbacks — July 11, the first day after the All-Star break, would be right at the six-week mark — he could still play as many as 122.
 
It’s striking how much time Correa has lost relative to fellow shortstop Francisco Lindor, who debuted just six days after him (June 8 and June 14, 2015) and had never been on the disabled or injured list until this spring, when he spent 26 days on the IL due to a left calf strain:
 
Francisco Lindor vs. Carlos Correa, 2015-19
Player G PA HR wRC+ WAR
Lindor 611 2757 105 120 23.8
Correa 521 2255 92 129 17.2
Difference 90 502 13 9 6.6

Obviously, that gap will only widen in the coming weeks, and could be around three-quarters of a season’s difference. That said, most of the gap in value actually owes to Lindor’s superior defense (42.5 runs to -15.8 via UZR, 46 to -2 via DRS).

Correa’s injury comes at a particularly inopportune time, as four of the Astros’ top eight hitters by wRC+ are sidelined:

 
Top Astros Hitters, 2019
Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ IL Date Injury
George Springer 216 17 .308 .389 .643 172 May 25 Left hamstring strain
Alex Bregman 242 17 .270 .393 .571 157    
Michael Brantley 233 10 .330 .386 .547 152    
Carlos Correa 214 11 .295 .360 .547 142 May 29 Fractured rib
Jake Marisnick 118 6 .271 .333 .533 132    
Robinson Chirinos 161 6 .236 .371 .457 127    
Aledmys Diaz 109 5 .286 .321 .510 118 May 27 Left hamstring strain
Jose Altuve 164 9 .243 .329 .472 116 May 11 Left hamstring strain
Josh Reddick 198 4 .311 .360 .424 113    

That’s not what you want. Altuve’s stay on the IL was supposed to be a relatively brief one, but after playing just two games on a rehab assignment, he returned to Houston to undergo re-evaluation due to fatigue and soreness in his right leg, in which he had a patellar avulsion fracture repaired last October. Springer’s injury was reported as a Grade 2 hamstring strain, which generally means at least a four-week absence. Thus far, there has been no mention of the severity of Diaz’s injury, though given that the five-position supersub had been playing second base in Altuve’s absence, his loss is a big hit to the Astros’ depth.

Earlier this week, Ben Clemens crunched the numbers and found that even if one were to exclude the team’s top four hitters (of which only two are actually missing), the rest of the Astros had hit for a 106 wRC+ in 2019. But one can’t take that performance as a forecast. The track records of Marisnick and Chirinos say they won’t maintain this level of production, and even Brantley and Bregman are well ahead of their career norms. The lighter-hitting players who will soak up the plate appearances of the missing mashers are more likely to erode the team’s offensive level than to maintain it.

As far as how manager A.J. Hinch can piece together his lineup, the Astros have cultivated versatility throughout their roster, which can lessen the sting but won’t make it go away. Bregman, who was drafted as a shortstop and saw the bulk of his minor league duty there, has manned the position ably enough in Correa’s absences, though his defense has been a step down (-3.4 UZR, -5 DRS in 52 starts and 71 total games). Myles Straw, who placed 17th on the team’s top prospect list this spring, could get a closer look as well; a 24-year-old righty with 70-grade speed but 20-grade game power, he’s a converted outfielder who took up the new positionat Triple-A Round Rock spring, has been recalled and could get a closer look as well. Yuli Gurriel, who has underperformed with the bat (.261/.298/.409, 90 wRC+), has started 41 of the team’s 57 games at first base plus eight of 10 at third base when Bregman hasn’t started; he figures to see the bulk of the hot corner duty when Bregman plays shortstop. Outfielder Tony Kemp, who started his professional carer as a second baseman, has played a total of 20 major league games there including eight this season; after a breakthrough last year (295 PA, 110 wRC+), he’s scuffled this year (92 PA, 82 wRC+).

That shuffling within the infield exposes backup first baseman Tyler White, who like Kemp has been unable to replicate last year’s breakthrough (237 PA and 144 wRC+ in 2018, 125 PA and 70 wRC+ in 2019), but the Astros do have additional cards to play. The team experimented with both Brantley and Reddick at first base during spring training, and if 25-year-old Derek Fisher — who has hit for just a 75 wRC+ in 269 PA since 2017, but has just 17 PA this year — can’t get going, then opportunity could knock for Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez. The 22-year-old Tucker, who similarly struggled last year but placed 10th overall on our top prospects list this spring, is hitting .261/.341/.596 at Round Rock, while the 21-year-old Alvarez, whom Dan Szymborski recently examined more closely, is lighting up the PCL (.361/.446/.759) after starting the year 125th on our list; he’s even got some experience at first base, though he graded as a 30 present/40 future fielder this past spring.

Collectively, that’s a better set of options than most teams can muster, and given that the Astros just placed fifth on our pre-draft farm system rankings, it’s clear that they’ve got a wealth of talent to deal from if they need to acquire a more substantial solution. On the other side of the ball, they’ve also got outstanding run prevention, ranking second in the AL in both ERA (3.42) and FIP (3.79). Losing Correa for a chunk of yet another season is hardly ideal, but as with the recent past, they’re built to withstand this. They’ll be fine.
 

 

I'm still confused at how you fracture the rib of a 6'5 grown ass man by giving a massage. That would be difficult to do even by punching him; much less a massage. 

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