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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3,747

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Everyone Should Want Marcus Stroman

By Craig Edwards

We are still about seven weeks shy of the trade deadline, but the list of teams trying to add to their rosters (and their counterparts willing to move quality players) is beginning to show its form. And as they are very July, teams are on the lookout for starting pitching, with the list of pitchers who might be available also beginning to take shape: Madison Bumgarner of the Giants, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez of the Blue Jays, the Rangers’ Mike Minor, the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, and perhaps Mike Leake and Marco Gonzalez of the Mariners are all potential targets. Inevitably, some of these players will be traded and make a difference for teams down the stretch, but beyond simple availability, it is probably useful to know why a pitcher is desirable in the first place. Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher having a good year, and with another season of team control after this one, he might be the best starting pitcher traded this season.

Stroman is a bit of a throwback in today’s game, relying on a sinker and posting pedestrian strikeout totals. He challenges hitters with the sinker, as evidenced by his heatmap against right-handers using the pitch this season:

 

Screenshot-2019-06-12-at-2.18.50-PM.png

It’s not right down the middle; the pitch goes inside a bit. When it works, it looks like this:

That’s probably not overly exciting, so here’s more of the pitch, this time when it works against lefties:

He throws his sinker to the same spot against lefties and righties, in to the righties and away to the lefties. On the season, he’s induced groundballs on 68% of batted balls off the two-seamer, right in line with his 70% career number. The simple explanation for those numbers is that his sinker sinks. Below are the 38 pitchers who throw a two-seamer at least 10% of the time, and the movement they’ve gotten on the pitch. The view is from the catcher’s point of view, so all right-handers will see their spot on the left side of the graph while left-handers will appear on the right side:
Screenshot-2019-06-12-at-3.53.39-PM.png
Stroman’s sinker moves down more than any other right-handed pitcher in baseball, which allows him to get a lot of groundballs on the pitch. But Stroman doesn’t throw just a sinker. He also throws a cutter. This is what that cutter looks like when it is working:

 

Stroman’s career groundball rate on his cutter is at 59%, though it is about 10 percentage points lower this season as he has thrown the pitch a bit higher in the zone than he has in the past. Looking at individual pitch splits might tell you his cutter has been hit around this season, though it appears to be BABIP-based and likely the result of luck, which is also supported by the xWOBA on the pitch.

The only other pitch Stroman throws at least 10% of the time is his slider; this is what the slider looks like when it is working:

Aren’t you glad it wasn’t another groundball? Stroman has to use one of his offerings to strike out one out of five batters, and the slider is his weapon of choice. Earlier on this season, he went heavy with the slider, throwing it nearly 40% of the time in his first eight starts and getting great results from it. After Minnesota roughed up the pitch a little on May 6, Stroman has gone back to a 27% usaged, in line with his career norms, and not gotten the same good results. After beginning the season with a 2.41 FIP and 2.20 ERA through seven starts, his last eight outings have been unimpressive, with a 5.09 FIP and 4.43 ERA.

While the performance of late might be worrisome, it looks a lot more like normal fluctuation than a sign of something wrong. While Stroman’s wOBA jumped from .257 to .348 from his first seven starts to his most recent eight, his xwOBA hasn’t moved as much, going from .283 to .304. Stroman is perhaps more prone to fluctuation than other pitchers due to the number of balls put in play against him. A quick look at his FIP and ERA paints a picture of consistency and inconsistency:

Screenshot-2019-06-12-at-3.12.48-PM.png

Stroman’s FIP has remained relatively constant, but he has been prone to ERA ups and downs, with fluctuating luck due to sequencing and the varying quality of the defenses behind him in Toronto. That 2018 season, which was abbreviated due to injury, was marked by a 60.5% left-on-base rate. While we might assume that Stroman broke down and pitched poorly with runners on base, his strikeout and walk rates under those conditions were in line with his normal performance. According to Baseball Savant, Stroman’s xBA was about 50 points lower than actual results with runners on base. Stroman’s 5.54 ERA last season was ugly and seems to show some inconsistency, but the results appear to have been mostly random and undeserved.

As for why Stroman’s recent run is more blip than pattern, here’s his five-game rolling FIP over the last few seasons:

Screenshot-2019-06-12-at-3.15.58-PM.png

The recent run of poor pitching is a fairly common occurrence for Stroman. Despite these stretches, he always ends the season with solid numbers, so there’s little reason to think this year will be any different. Stroman is a good pitcher in the middle of a good year. He might fare better with a good defense behind him, but the massive number of groundballs he generates ensures that his home run rate will be low, limiting the damage. He’s pitching at his normal velocity in the low-90s, and his blister and shoulder issues from last season appear to be behind him.

As for which team might be interested in Stroman? Maybe the title exaggerates a bit, as the Cubs, Marlins, Tigers, Royals, Giants, Mariners, and Orioles might not be great fits for Stroman. But otherwise, the answer is pretty much every team. Stroman has one more year of team control, so cost-conscious teams can deal for him without fear of a huge salary, and give up prospects knowing he will be on the roster for another potential playoff run. These are teams like the Rays, Twins, A’s, and Brewers. There are a lot of teams, particularly in the National League, that might be on the fence about adding players when their fate this season is uncertain. These are the teams like the Padres, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Reds, Rangers, and White Sox, that are perhaps on the verge of competing, but don’t want to go all in this season. Teams that are struggling this year but want to keep their window open, like the Cardinals, Red Sox, Angels, Nationals, Rockies, and Mets, should be involved. Teams that are already doing well, but want to add more to win a division or in the playoffs, like the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Astros, should take notice. And if the Blue Jays are thinking about competing next season, it wouldn’t be a terrible decision to keep him.

Nearly every team in the league should be after Marcus Stroman, and some of them might be a lot better off if they tried to jump the gun and add him now, before they miss another 10 starts from a quality pitcher.

 

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8,052

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I know the Brewers are a pretty fair team. I know we were trotting out a shell of our real lineup. But c'mon, man...that was a dreadful offensive performance. 

Hate seeing all our top relievers burned in a tie game. I realize we had to keep it that way, but still frustrating. Maybe next time we'll improve on our 1 hit every 3 innings offensive pace.

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MAROON

MAROON 445

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4 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Leading the NL Central and tied for the second best record in the NL.

Splitting a series against them without Springer, Altuve, and Correa is not a bad result.  

and it appears the Brewers plan was to have anyone not named Bregman or Alvarez beat them.  7 walks combined to those two last night.  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,174

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bottom line is that this team is not built to win extra inning games without 3 top bats and our top util bench guy injured.  there were too many innings where i knew we wouldn't do shit.

the fact that we won 3/4 (extra inning games) in the past couple weeks is a freaking miracle.  milwaukee has a ton of dangerous bats and some great bullpen pieces.  that inning with the straw pickoff killed us.

we're doing very well all things considered, but we need our guys to get back right fucking soon.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,369

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Yeah I fear our duct tape and bailing wire, while effective for a short time, is starting to show its age.

Normally I’d say anything less than 4-2 the next two series would be a disappointment but I’d settle for 3-3 right now.
And get Tuve and hopefully Springer back one week from today in the Bronx.

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formermav43

formermav43 4,599

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2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

bottom line is that this team is not built to win extra inning games without 3 top bats and our top util bench guy injured.  there were too many innings where i knew we wouldn't do shit.

the fact that we won 3/4 (extra inning games) in the past couple weeks is a freaking miracle.  milwaukee has a ton of dangerous bats and some great bullpen pieces.  that inning with the straw pickoff killed us.

we're doing very well all things considered, but we need our guys to get back right fucking soon.

What team is built to win without its top 3 bats and top utility guy? I’d say the depth here is better than any other team out in that position.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,174

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10 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

What team is built to win without its top 3 bats and top utility guy? I’d say the depth here is better than any other team out in that position.

well we've been able to "out-depth" some inferior teams.  but it won't work against better teams, like milwaukee, and especially not in home extra inning games, when realistically, 1 out of every 3 innings we have a decent chance to walk it off with this lineup.

i'm not shitting on our depth.  i'm just remarking that we've been able to do some pretty outstanding work with this patchwork lineup, including some extra inning wins, but stuff like last night was bound to happen.

really hoping we get some news today about rehab assignments.

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formermav43

formermav43 4,599

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10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

well we've been able to "out-depth" some inferior teams.  but it won't work against better teams, like milwaukee, and especially not in home extra inning games, when realistically, 1 out of every 3 innings we have a decent chance to walk it off with this lineup.

i'm not shitting on our depth.  i'm just remarking that we've been able to do some pretty outstanding work with this patchwork lineup, including some extra inning wins, but stuff like last night was bound to happen.

really hoping we get some news today about rehab assignments.

Yeah, I’m not really disagreeing with you. I’m just pointing out it’s not so much that “this team” isn’t built to be without its top 3 bats-nobody is. It’s pretty remarkable that they’ve been as successful as they have under these circumstances.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,174

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5 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Yeah, I’m not really disagreeing with you. I’m just pointing out it’s not so much that “this team” isn’t built to be without its top 3 bats-nobody is. It’s pretty remarkable that they’ve been as successful as they have under these circumstances.

yep.

there's just this mindset you get as a fan - especially on the road in extra innings.  where a homer can end the game.  or a walk and a gapper.  whenever i look at who's due up for the other team, i'm usually like "ok, we can get through this inning, it's not that tough."  most teams have one scary inning's worth of pop in their lineups.  a healthy astros team has absolutely zero safe innings for the other teams - it's scary up and down and you just cannot make a mistake.

sucks that we're not at full strength.  once we are, games like last night won't get to the 14th freaking inning.

/offdaychatter

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14,446

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51 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

What team is built to win without its top 3 bats and top utility guy? I’d say the depth here is better than any other team out in that position.

Yankees were missing Judge, Stanton, Gregorius, and Andujar. Those 4 combined for 119 HR's last year. Their depth is pretty equal to ours.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8,052

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If we'd been the road team last night, maybe we'd have figured out a way to win in spite of everything. For whatever reason(s), we're just ridiculously good away from home. Not that such success is to be expected of any team fielding a glorified AAA lineup.

 

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WBT

WBT 20,397

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This page reads like Milwaukee swept us (instead of eking out a split in 14 innings) and like we're 3-7 in our last 10.

With everyone healthy the most likely outcome is a split with Milwaukee.

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WBT

WBT 20,397

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6 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

If we'd been the road team last night, maybe we'd have figured out a way to win in spite of everything. For whatever reason(s), we're just ridiculously good away from home. Not that such success is to be expected of any team fielding a glorified AAA lineup.

 

We're 25-10 at home and 21-13 on the road.

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formermav43

formermav43 4,599

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9 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yankees were missing Judge, Stanton, Gregorius, and Andujar. Those 4 combined for 119 HR's last year. Their depth is pretty equal to ours.

They’ve won fewer games against the second easiest schedule in the league to this point, compared to Houston playing the 4th most difficult.

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