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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

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Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77289

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Lot of talk that the giants Expect a premium for  Madbum. Talk of not moving him if the price isn’t right, I’ll call bs here. Braves could also be in the mix 

They have two relievers getting a lot of chatter also. Sandaval is also on the block.  

Giant have a chance here for a huge talent influx. They need Outfielders. 

 

https://aroundthefoghorn.com/2019/06/17/san-francisco-giants-top-trade-chips/amp/

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Limp Brisket said:

Would definitely like to see a pitcher and Jose Abreu come on board.

I imagine we won't see him replaced, but you have to wonder how long the club can just trot Yuli out every day with his .263/.297/.396 line. It's not that small of a sample anymore (290 PAs). You need more than that out of a 1B bat.

His wRC+ places 25th in baseball among 1B - and is worse than Tyler White's.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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1 hour ago, mycox said:

Yuli gets a pass because he can also play 3rd. The team would be screwed without him this season.

He's been useful with 1/3 of our position players on the IL because he can play other positions (mostly) adequately...but he's been significantly worse than league average offensively, playing primarily 1B.

There is some reason to think he's going to improve offensively going forward (his K% and BB% are about the same as ever, BABIP is low, hard hit balls about the same, etc.). 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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when it's the playoffs, and we're tied, and have a man on first with two outs, and our 7 hitter is yuli, i have some faith that he'll come up with a clutch oppo double in the gap to give us the lead.  i can't say that about other team's 7/8 guys.  having yuli-robby c-reddick 7-8-9 makes me feel pretty good about the opposing pitchers never having a stress-free inning.

would i rather have had edwin, or trade for abreu?  yeah, probably, but you have to give action to get action, and we already have yuli and he's going nowhere.  if it comes out that diaz is out for the season, then you could trade for a 1b and make yuli the new marwin (ish).  smoak is interesting, but doesn't really move the needle for me.

if we're totally healthy, then kemp doesn't make the postseason roster and white is wayyyy gone.  that's how deep we are on offense this season.

go get me an sp3 and possibly another rp, and i'll see you at the fucking finish line.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

when it's the playoffs, and we're tied, and have a man on first with two outs, and our 7 hitter is yuli, i have some faith that he'll come up with a clutch oppo double in the gap to give us the lead.  i can't say that about other team's 7/8 guys.  having yuli-robby c-reddick 7-8-9 makes me feel pretty good about the opposing pitchers never having a stress-free inning.

would i rather have had edwin, or trade for abreu?  yeah, probably, but you have to give action to get action, and we already have yuli and he's going nowhere.  if it comes out that diaz is out for the season, then you could trade for a 1b and make yuli the new marwin (ish).  smoak is interesting, but doesn't really move the needle for me.

if we're totally healthy, then kemp doesn't make the postseason roster and white is wayyyy gone.  that's how deep we are on offense this season.

go get me an sp3 and possibly another rp, and i'll see you at the fucking finish line.

Oh I agree, just saying that Yuli is nothing more than "fine."

He's been a worse offensive player than Tyler White this year. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9520

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Posted

First baseman production talk is timely.
From Kaplan:

CINCINNATI — When the Astros’ lineup is at full strength, depth is its calling card. Pitchers can’t let up much on the bottom third of the lineup, where they’ll find hitters who would bat in the top six in the order on many teams around the majors.

This was also the case in 2017, when the Astros extracted an above-average OPS from eight of the nine positions in their lineup, the exception being designated hitter. That same dynamic is in play this season, only this time with a different outlier: first base.

Despite having an offense that entered Wednesday’s series finale against the Reds ranked second in the majors in OPS (.812), the Astros are near the bottom of the majors in production from first base. Their .706 OPS from their first basemen came into Wednesday ranked 27th, better than only the Tigers (.642), Orioles (.639) and Royals (.568). It’s almost .100 worse than the league average at the position (.804).

MLB Average

Astros

AVG

.257 .263
OBP

.339 .318
SLG

.465 .388
The primary reason, of course, is Yuli Gurriel’s regression. He came into Wednesday with a .696 OPS, .062 worse than his career average and .055 worse than last season. Even though he’s played more third base in the wake of Carlos Correa’s rib injury, Gurriel still accounts for roughly 60 percent of Houston’s first base plate appearances this season.

Tyler White, whose season-long struggles have been well documented, accounts for just north of 30 percent. His playing time has increased since Correa’s injury, and he could continue to see regular playing time out of necessity until Aledmys Díaz returns in July from his left hamstring strain. Jose Altuve’s return will primarily impact Tony Kemp, who on Wednesday reassumed a bench role.

The numbers behind Gurriel’s season are curious and also help to explain the Astros’ optimism about him moving forward. According to FanGraphs, he’s hitting more balls on a line or in the air than his previous three seasons and making a higher percentage of hard contact. He’s also chasing fewer pitches out of the zone compared to last year. Yet his production in his age-35 season has diminished.

“I think the numbers are a little bit misleading to the dangerous hitter that he is,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. “He hits the ball as hard as anybody. When he stays with a plan, he can be consistent. I get asked a lot of questions about his on-base or his perceived lack of power. I’m hitting him in the middle of the order. But he can do a lot of different things in one at-bat. Pitch selection’s always key for him. I think he’s always tweaking his swing a little bit mechanically. There’s a lot going on with his bat wrap and his balance. But every time he gets up to bat, he has as good of a chance to hit the ball 100 miles an hour or harder (as anybody and he’s got a good a chance to hit the ball in the gap.”

Gurriel is miscast as the No. 3 or 4 hitter he’s been recently. Altuve’s activation after a 35-game absence pushed Gurriel to fifth on Wednesday and Gurriel should drop to at least sixth when George Springer comes back, likely next week. In their optimal healthy lineup, the Astros probably bat Gurriel seventh, ahead of only Robinson Chirinos and Josh Reddick.

One legitimate cause for concern, though, might be Gurriel’s struggles against breaking balls. According to Baseball Savant, he entered Wednesday slugging .263 against breaking pitches as opposed to .453 against fastballs. In the eighth inning of the Astros’ loss Tuesday night at Great American Ball Park, Reds closer Raisel Iglesias started Gurriel with three consecutive sliders before throwing by him a 96 mph fastball.

Gurriel’s not in danger of losing any meaningful amount of playing time nor does Houston have a viable first base alternative other than White, whose roster spot figures to be threatened by Díaz’s eventual return. The Astros don’t view Yordan Alvarez as an option at first based on what they saw of his work at the position in Triple A. Michael Brantley hasn’t played there at all, and Reddick has gotten only a few innings of work there in lopsided games.

The Astros also don’t appear to have the roster flexibility to bolster the position externally, which is why the 21-year-old Alvarez’s apparent inability to play first is so significant. Ultimately, when their two injured infielders come back and the pieces of their roster are put back together, the onus will be on Gurriel and Díaz to produce from first base.

 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzers-trade-value/

Fangraphs assessing Scherzer's trade value (after acknowledging the Nats are unlikely to trade him). This blurb was interesting:

So what does that trade look like? Based on my prospect value research, that is probably something like a prospect ranked around 20 plus another at the back end of the top-100. For the Dodgers, that’d be like Dustin May and Will Smith. For the Astros, Kyle Tucker and Corbin Martin might get close. 

Sheeeeeeit, I'd do that in a heartbeat for 2.5 years of the best pitcher in baseball. Hell I'd offer them Tucker + Whitley and make them say no. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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12 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Yeahhh, that’s tempting.
Seeing Tucker start a HOF-career... or at least a multi-year All Star career...somewhere else would be tough, but flags fly forever and you gotta take that chance

Yeah, and there's a better chance that Tucker is a good player than a great player. 

Way I see it - we have Cole this year; Springer and Brantley through 2020; JV and Correa through 2021. Scherzer is signed through 2021. Go all in.

Washington probably wouldn't trade him, but if we offered Tucker + Whitley, they'd have to think really hard about it...

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9520

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But has anything changed in their FO since last year when they fucked around and screwed us a bit on Harper? (Screwed May be too harsh of a word. I don’t recall the public details on how close we were landing him)

Still, wonder how much of that may play in to deal discussions this year

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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9 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah, and there's a better chance that Tucker is a good player than a great player. 

Way I see it - we have Cole this year; Springer and Brantley through 2020; JV and Correa through 2021. Scherzer is signed through 2021. Go all in.

Washington probably wouldn't trade him, but if we offered Tucker + Whitley, they'd have to think really hard about it...

i'm not going tucker + whitley no way.

do we even know what that type of salary add would do to potential extensions?

for less than that kind of money, we could get a much younger (and yeah, not quite as good) pitcher in cole without giving away the farm.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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10 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

that was pretty much predicted here already 1-2 weeks ago.

well, carlos was.  the news on diaz was more recent.

my 33 game stretch was up til the asb when i assumed that was the earliest possible time we'd be made whole.

so far we're 11-7 with 15 to play.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i'm not going tucker + whitley no way.

do we even know what that type of salary add would do to potential extensions?

for less than that kind of money, we could get a much younger (and yeah, not quite as good) pitcher in cole without giving away the farm.

I'm not sure how many potential extensions it would impact - I would assume the extension window for Springer has closed (maybe not) and Correa never seemed interested in extending. (Maybe the calculus here has changed, given the recent FA market.)

I don't think we could get Cole for less - maybe on a per-year basis, but he's likely to get $150M after the season. Give me Scherzer at more annual money for two years. 

I'm ordinarily not interested in dealing top prospects...but if you are going to, it should be for elite players and it should make sense with your current roster construction. I feel like this is the rare deal that checks those boxes. 

Also, the Nats aren't going to trade him anyway. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10521

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Posted

It will be interesting to see how the payroll will go in the next few years. For 2020, they already have $120 million committed for only 7 players. JV,  Altuve,  Bregs,  Brantley,  Reddick, Yuli and Pressley. Springer will  get $15+ million and Correa  will get probably get $8-10 million next year in arbitration. Call it an even $150 million for 9 players.

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