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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

Rustic Horn
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Mez2
Mez2

Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15243

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1 minute ago, formermav43 said:

I think they’ll have the best team in baseball anyway. And they can maintain that status longer by hanging on to Tucker. My “fascination” is with winning more than just this year.

Not sure why a simple difference of opinion causes such vitriolic responses. But I’m glad the front office generally balances long and short term concerns instead of mortgaging the future for a single title.

What future is being mortgage? Right now no one knows what Tucker will be, he could absolutely be useless compared to Syndergaard over the next 2-1/2 seasons. We have a reasonable expectation to expect 4-6 WAR from Syndergaard.

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rvm96

rvm96 1643

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4 minutes ago, WBT said:

Yep, the best way to win World Series is to make the playoffs every year.  Mortgaging the future to bump our chances of winning it this year from 20 to 24% doesn't do it for me.

That makes sense with a rental. With only Verlander and McCullers signed for next year a big time starter signed for next year like Noah is enticing. 

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formermav43

formermav43 4607

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8 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

What future is being mortgage? Right now no one knows what Tucker will be, he could absolutely be useless compared to Syndergaard over the next 2-1/2 seasons. We have a reasonable expectation to expect 4-6 WAR from Syndergaard.

If you want to talk projections, Syndergaard outpaces Tucker by .7 WAR on Zips for 2020-21 combined. Factor in that 1) the whole starting OF isn’t under contract after 2020 and 2) the additional years of team control for Tucker compared to Syndergaard, and it’s pretty clear what I’m talking about. 

We disagree. That’s fine. Neither of us is going to change our minds, we might as well move on.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15243

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8 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

If you want to talk projections, Syndergaard outpaces Tucker by .7 WAR on Zips for 2020-21 combined. Factor in that 1) the whole starting OF isn’t under contract after 2020 and 2) the additional years of team control for Tucker compared to Syndergaard, and it’s pretty clear what I’m talking about. 

We disagree. That’s fine. Neither of us is going to change our minds, we might as well move on.

Zips also projects Gerrit Cole to pitch for the Astros in 2020 and 2021, while that is still possible, it's not a given.

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thetruth

thetruth 149

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1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

reports are saying the mets have been scouting the braves minor league very hard 

Why would they trade him in their division?

If you got back and listen to the Astros podcast with Luhnnow last Sunday he talks about how you won't be seeing Astros scouts on players because they already have a book on everyone. I'm not advocating trading Tucker or Whitley, but if the asking price is JB +, I'm not going to bitch. 

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Limp Brisket

Limp Brisket 549

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The Braves are wanting more pitching even after the Keuchel aquisition.  They have a deep farm system and their star players are on rookie contracts, they have the expendable cash and the players to move.  They have over achieved the past year or so but appear to be ready to think not.

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10557

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20 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

The #Astros announce that Tyler White has been traded to the Dodgers for Double-A pitcher Andre Scrubb (6-1, 2.45 ERA). Scrubb has been assigned to the Hooks.

#3SportsBlitz Corpus Christi Hooks

Dodgers trying to get intel on Astros by bribing Tyler White with food. Astros literally traded him for a Scrubb.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9787

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Dodgers are going to feed White some of that Turner/Muncy secret sauce and make him an MVP candidate.   

Its true ...and we’ll still say thank you for Alvarez.
And that’s fine at long as it’s not in October against us
Although K’ing White in a key situation in October (in the same game Alvarez homers) after what fields did for us in 2017 would be amazing
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6344

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10 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

Dodgers are going to feed White some of that Turner/Muncy secret sauce and make him an MVP candidate.   

In all seriousness, I don't think White is actually as bad as he's been in 2019. Not sure what happened this year, but he's a guy that has raked in AAA and actually performed well in limited MLB ABs in 2017 and 2018. On paper he should be at least an average-ish MLB hitter. No clue what happened to his power this year; it's strange in this juiced-ball season that his power has simply disappeared. 

His conditioning obviously leaves a lot to be desired - he is a stocky guy, but seems a bit heavier this year - maybe that's a culprit. 

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he turns into a decent offensive player. I actually think the surprise is how bad he's been this season. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6344

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, formermav43 said:

If you want to talk projections, Syndergaard outpaces Tucker by .7 WAR on Zips for 2020-21 combined. Factor in that 1) the whole starting OF isn’t under contract after 2020 and 2) the additional years of team control for Tucker compared to Syndergaard, and it’s pretty clear what I’m talking about. 

We disagree. That’s fine. Neither of us is going to change our minds, we might as well move on.

I can see this from both sides, and I usually tend to hope that the club is more cautious with prospects. 

But you have to consider context too, and with the current club construction - JV and Correa with 2 more years, the entire OF with 1 more year, Altuve turning 30, etc - I wouldn't mind parting with Whitley or Tucker for the right guy. (And yeah, I get that this could also be an argument for why you would want to hold on to your best prospects.)

That said, I would definitely prefer to keep Tucker and deal Whitley. Pitchers seem way too unpredictable, and Whitley has shown issues already. 

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Jshep34

Jshep34 2425

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When you have chance for titles you go get them. Prospects are just that, prospects with potential. Its a roll of dice if theyll pan out. Rather get a known commodity that could help get a few titles than hope someone lives up thier potential

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

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formermav43

formermav43 4607

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19 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I can see this from both sides, and I usually tend to hope that the club is more cautious with prospects. 

But you have to consider context too, and with the current club construction - JV and Correa with 2 more years, the entire OF with 1 more year, Altuve turning 30, etc - I wouldn't mind parting with Whitley or Tucker for the right guy. (And yeah, I get that this could also be an argument for why you would want to hold on to your best prospects.)

That said, I would definitely prefer to keep Tucker and deal Whitley. Pitchers seem way too unpredictable, and Whitley has shown issues already. 

We are mostly on the same page.

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Mez2

Mez2 4041

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16 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Anything of note for us sans TheAthletic subscription 

i got u fam,:

If you’re Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler, which would be the better outcome — a trade that would enable you to enter free agency without draft-pick compensation or a contract extension that would enable you to avoid the market entirely?

Wheeler, 29, soon might have a say in the matter.

As I reported Thursday on Twitter, the Mets are exploring signing Wheeler and trading right-hander Noah Syndergaard, according to major-league sources. The pair of moves would enable the Mets to fulfill their mission of trying to contend in 2020 and beyond. Not only would they benefit from the package they received for Syndergaard, but they also would keep Wheeler, who otherwise would be likely to depart as a free agent at the end of the season.

An escape from New York might be preferable for most Mets players, considering the team is headed for its ninth losing season in the past 11 years. But what if the Mets offered Wheeler say, a four-year deal in the $70 million to $80 million range? Right-hander Jacob deGrom stayed for five years, $137.5 million, didn’t he?

Wheeler, who pitches for the first time in 19 days Friday after spending time on the injured list with right shoulder fatigue, still might prefer a trade. That way, he would avoid a qualifying offer — players traded in the middle of a season cannot receive one — and become an unrestricted free agent.

The Mets could press their leverage with Wheeler by telling him, “If you don’t sign, we will keep you and make you a qualifying offer.” But such a strategy might be self-defeating. Assuming Wheeler rejected the offer, the draft-pick compensation the Mets would receive might not exceed the value of the players they could acquire in a trade.

Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen is walking a fine line. Trading Syndergaard and losing Wheeler would greatly compromise the team’s 2020 rotation. If the Mets indeed intend to compete, they probably will need to keep one or the other.

Buy high, sell higher?

Teams evaluate prospects differently, but two rival executives say the Mets’ ask for closer Edwin Díaz approximates or even exceeds the package they traded to the Mariners last December in the blockbuster that also brought them second baseman Robinson Canó.

In that trade, the Mets parted with outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn, the game’s Nos. 22 and 65 prospects, according to MLBPipeline.com, as well as right-hander Gerson Bautista, a lesser minor leaguer who became the Mariners’ No. 24 prospect.

The deal also included elements to reduce the burden of the $120 million that remained on Canó’s contract. The Mariners sent the Mets $20 million and took on the money owed to outfielder Jay Bruce and right-hander Anthony Swarzak, whom they later traded to the Phillies and Braves, respectively.

Díaz, 25, has lost value since the trade — he struggled mightily in the first half, and is now under club control for three additional seasons instead of four. His recent turnaround, however, has piqued the interest of contenders. Díaz has produced six straight scoreless outings, reducing his ERA from 5.67 to 4.81.

Brewers on the brink

The Brewers are 16-22 since their 38-28 start. Within a span of four days, they lost right-handers Brandon Woodruff and Jhoulys Chacin to oblique injuries. The way they’re trending, they look almost like sellers. But according to major-league sources, Milwaukee is among the teams interested in one of the better starting pitchers available, Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray.

Such a move would not be without logic. For all their troubles, the Brewers are just two games back in both the NL Central and wild-card races. Two of their better players, infielder Mike Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal, are free agents at the end of the season. And right fielder Christian Yelich is an MVP candidate in his prime.

The Brewers, then, are in the middle of their competitive window, but their three-game series against the Cubs this weekend might determine how aggressively they buy. Baseball America, in its latest organizational rankings, ranked the Brewers’ system the worst in the majors, in part due to the graduation of second baseman Keston Hiura. Thus, it might make more sense for the Brewers to take a more conservative route, perhaps pursuing pitchers such as left-hander Derek Holland and righty Blake Parker, both of whom recently were designated for assignment.

Rays continuing to push

The Rays obviously were unsettled by the news – first reported by The Athletic’s Josh Tolentino  – that defending Cy Young winner Blake Snell will undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body in his pitching elbow.

Snell is expected to miss at least four weeks, but the Rays, like the Brewers, will not simply give up on their season. In fact, their odds of reaching the playoffs (51.3 percent, according to FanGraphs) are higher than the Brewers’ (32.4 percent). One reason: The Rays’ schedule, which eases considerably in August. FanGraphs calculates postseason odds by using individual player projections to simulate the season 10,000 times.

After three games against the Red Sox beginning on Tuesday, the Rays will play seven straight series against teams with losing records, including individual sets with the Marlins, Tigers, Orioles and Blue Jays, the worst four clubs in the game.

Here is their schedule:

Aug. 3-4: Miami

Aug. 5-7: Toronto

Aug. 9-11: at Seattle

Aug. 12-14: at San Diego

Aug. 16-18: Detroit

Aug. 19-21: Seattle

Aug. 22-25: Baltimore

The Rays need a right-handed bat – their offense ranks 10th in the AL in runs per game – as well as whatever pitching help they can find. They likely will pursue the same players they were pursuing before Snell’s injury, sources say. But their tolerance level for trading prospects they value might not be as high.

No Royal flush

Rival clubs are expressing interest in Royals left-hander Danny Duffy and closer Ian Kennedy, but only if Kansas City pays down their respective contracts. The Royals are not inclined to make that type of deal, according to major-league sources.

It’s not surprising teams want money in any Duffy or Kennedy trade. Duffy, 30, is owed the balance of his $15.25 million salary this season, plus a combined $30.75 million in 2020-21. Kennedy, 34, is owed the balance of his $16.5 million salary this season and $16.5 million in ‘20.

Still, Duffy (4.32 ERA in 16 starts) and Kennedy (52 strikeouts, 10 walks, two homers in 42 1/3 innings) are performing well this season. The Royals are not under financial pressure to move them and value them as place-holders until their younger pitchers develop, sources say.

Four of the Royals’ top eight prospects are starting pitchers at the High-A and Double-A levels, and the team also is developing a number of power relievers.

And what if …

One of the Reds’ top evaluators watched Duffy pitch in Atlanta on Tuesday night. It’s not known whether Duffy was his focus, and starting pitching is the Reds’ strength. Still, acquiring Duffy could make sense in a buy-sell scenario that also involved a trade of right-hander Tanner Roark in a separate deal.

Here’s how it would work, and keep in mind, this is a thought exercise, not a report of actual discussions.

By trading Roark, a potential free agent, and acquiring Duffy, who is signed through ‘21, the Reds effectively would exchange a short-term asset for a long-term one. They then would be left with a rotation — for the rest of this season, at least — of Duffy, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani.

The Reds could absorb Duffy’s remaining salaries with little difficulty. Due to their large number of potential free agents, they stand to shed more than $50 million in salary at the end of the season.

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