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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

Rustic Horn
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Mez2
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Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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rvm96

rvm96 1643

Posted
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39 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Tucker is crushing it 

There was an article on MLB.com talking about the most likely prospects in the minors to make a difference in the playoffs this year. Tucker was #1 on the list. Whitely squeaked onto the list at #9. 

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rvm96

rvm96 1643

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26 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

And has proven he can hit big league pitches from time to time unlike Tucker.

Tucker has a SMALL sample size of professional ABs. Also, advanced metrics say he was very unlucky when it comes to his actual batting average vs expected batting average. 

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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48 minutes ago, WBT said:

If Tucker makes it, I think Reddick would be the one left off.  I think <10% chance it happens.

I don't think Tucker will make the PO roster, but I was surprised to read in Kaplan's Mailbag in The Athletic that he doesn't believe that Tucker will get much playing time in September. I see no reason not to have him split time with Reddick during September. 

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YChang

YChang 3430

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10 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

It’s not unlike being an Astros fan of just a few years ago.  Take that from personal experience. 

Still seared into my memory. On my way home on BART, after the perfect game Giants had against the Astros. SF fan celebrating and someone yelled out, "Eh, it wasn't that special. The Astros are like a AAA team."

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

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This shit makes me fucking ragey...I hate everyone named JD. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/j-d-davis-is-leading-the-mets-charge/

Spoiler

As Ben Clemens succinctly put it on Tuesday, “Here come the Mets.” If you have read Ben’s piece, I’m not going to bore you with the same details. If you haven’t, you should go do so.

In short, the Mets were bad, and now they’re good. But even with this current stretch of newfound dominance, their seemingly high-octane offseason remains a mixed bag. Edwin Díaz and Robinson Canó still haven’t lived up to their high expectations after being brought in from Seattle, Jed Lowrie hasn’t played a single game due to a calf injury, and Jeurys Familia won’t stop walking hitters. For all the talk about how good the Mets’ offseason was, it’s still not those players who are leading the charge. That is, save for this one obvious exception:
 
 
The Mets’ Offseason Acquisitions by WAR
Player Position Acquired PA/BF 2019 WAR
J.D. Davis INF/OF Trade (Houston) 297 1.6
Robinson Canó INF Trade (Seattle) 346 0.4
Wilson Ramos C Free Agent 364 0.3
Edwin Díaz RP Trade (Seattle) 196 0.2
Justin Wilson RP Free Agent 89 0.0
Luis Avilán RP Free Agent 81 0.0
Jed Lowrie INF Free Agent 0 0.0
Adeiny Hechavarría INF Free Agent 147 -0.1
Jeurys Familia RP Free Agent 173 -0.5
Stats through games played on Tuesday, August 6.

In a sense, J.D. Davis has been the Mets’ savior. As they’ve heated up, he has not only been one of their best offensive players but also one of the best bats in baseball. In the 30-day period between July 8 and August 6 — as the Mets’ playoff odds have increased by 35 points — Davis has slashed .385/.468/.615 in 77 plate appearances. His 187 wRC+ during this time is the seventh-highest in baseball. His defense has limited his overall value a touch, but even still, his 0.9 WAR in this time period ranks 32nd out of 181 qualified position players.

While this level of performance probably won’t be sustained long-term, it’s not as if Davis was incapable of producing at an elite level. If you’re a Twitter follower of mine, you’d know that I’ve been a big fan of his all year, at least since I wrote this piece in early April. What intrigued me about Davis then continues to intrigue me now. He is not only putting up good numbers in terms of pure production, it’s that his underlying stats make him all the more exciting:
 
J.D. Davis’ Statcast Stats
  EV (mph) Percentile xBA Percentile xSLG Percentile xwOBA Percentile
J.D. Davis 92.2 95th .316 98th .529 92nd .393 96th
Stats through games played on Tuesday, August 6.

Those are some very impressive numbers. To contextualize just how good Davis has been, consider this: 394 hitters have at least 100 plate appearances this season. Just three of them have both a higher xBA and xwOBA than Davis: Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and Anthony Rendon. Davis has found himself in an elite class of hitters this season, and nobody outside of New York is talking about it.

That is why it is time for people to take notice, because this version of J.D. Davis (or at least one close to it) is here to stay. The same changes that I identified back in a minuscule sample in April have remained true: Davis’ O-Swing rate is a career-best, as is his contact rate. With that, his discipline has been fantastic. His 20% strikeout rate is actually even lower than it was when I wrote the April piece. As you’d expect, that too is a career-best and is nearly six points better than his 2018 figure. His walk rate has even ticked up a bit as well.

 

The discipline was the last step in turning Davis into a productive hitter. Prior to 2019, Davis posted solid numbers on contact. From 2017 through 2018, his xwOBA on pitches put into play (.391) ranked in the top-third of hitters. The problem was that Davis just wasn’t making enough contact in order for that to matter. He struck out 49 times in 181 plate appearances with Houston, and his 14 walks were not nearly enough to soften the blow.

...

 

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Seasick Sailor

Seasick Sailor 3747

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3 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

This shit makes me fucking ragey...I hate everyone named JD. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/j-d-davis-is-leading-the-mets-charge/

  Reveal hidden contents

As Ben Clemens succinctly put it on Tuesday, “Here come the Mets.” If you have read Ben’s piece, I’m not going to bore you with the same details. If you haven’t, you should go do so.

In short, the Mets were bad, and now they’re good. But even with this current stretch of newfound dominance, their seemingly high-octane offseason remains a mixed bag. Edwin Díaz and Robinson Canó still haven’t lived up to their high expectations after being brought in from Seattle, Jed Lowrie hasn’t played a single game due to a calf injury, and Jeurys Familia won’t stop walking hitters. For all the talk about how good the Mets’ offseason was, it’s still not those players who are leading the charge. That is, save for this one obvious exception:
 
 
The Mets’ Offseason Acquisitions by WAR
Player Position Acquired PA/BF 2019 WAR
J.D. Davis INF/OF Trade (Houston) 297 1.6
Robinson Canó INF Trade (Seattle) 346 0.4
Wilson Ramos C Free Agent 364 0.3
Edwin Díaz RP Trade (Seattle) 196 0.2
Justin Wilson RP Free Agent 89 0.0
Luis Avilán RP Free Agent 81 0.0
Jed Lowrie INF Free Agent 0 0.0
Adeiny Hechavarría INF Free Agent 147 -0.1
Jeurys Familia RP Free Agent 173 -0.5
Stats through games played on Tuesday, August 6.

In a sense, J.D. Davis has been the Mets’ savior. As they’ve heated up, he has not only been one of their best offensive players but also one of the best bats in baseball. In the 30-day period between July 8 and August 6 — as the Mets’ playoff odds have increased by 35 points — Davis has slashed .385/.468/.615 in 77 plate appearances. His 187 wRC+ during this time is the seventh-highest in baseball. His defense has limited his overall value a touch, but even still, his 0.9 WAR in this time period ranks 32nd out of 181 qualified position players.

While this level of performance probably won’t be sustained long-term, it’s not as if Davis was incapable of producing at an elite level. If you’re a Twitter follower of mine, you’d know that I’ve been a big fan of his all year, at least since I wrote this piece in early April. What intrigued me about Davis then continues to intrigue me now. He is not only putting up good numbers in terms of pure production, it’s that his underlying stats make him all the more exciting:
 
J.D. Davis’ Statcast Stats
  EV (mph) Percentile xBA Percentile xSLG Percentile xwOBA Percentile
J.D. Davis 92.2 95th .316 98th .529 92nd .393 96th
Stats through games played on Tuesday, August 6.

Those are some very impressive numbers. To contextualize just how good Davis has been, consider this: 394 hitters have at least 100 plate appearances this season. Just three of them have both a higher xBA and xwOBA than Davis: Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and Anthony Rendon. Davis has found himself in an elite class of hitters this season, and nobody outside of New York is talking about it.

That is why it is time for people to take notice, because this version of J.D. Davis (or at least one close to it) is here to stay. The same changes that I identified back in a minuscule sample in April have remained true: Davis’ O-Swing rate is a career-best, as is his contact rate. With that, his discipline has been fantastic. His 20% strikeout rate is actually even lower than it was when I wrote the April piece. As you’d expect, that too is a career-best and is nearly six points better than his 2018 figure. His walk rate has even ticked up a bit as well.

 

The discipline was the last step in turning Davis into a productive hitter. Prior to 2019, Davis posted solid numbers on contact. From 2017 through 2018, his xwOBA on pitches put into play (.391) ranked in the top-third of hitters. The problem was that Davis just wasn’t making enough contact in order for that to matter. He struck out 49 times in 181 plate appearances with Houston, and his 14 walks were not nearly enough to soften the blow.

...

 

Meh. Where would he play if he was still with us? His defense is awful, and as hot as he's been, he still wouldn't be getting starts at DH over Yordan.   

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

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1 minute ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Meh. Where would he play if he was still with us? His defense is awful, and as hot as he's been, he still wouldn't be getting starts at DH over Yordan.   

All those ABs Tyler White got. 

Yeah I know, there wasn't really a place for him, but fuck him anyway for sucking here when he had his chances the last couple of years. And fuck JD Martinez. 

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Scraps

Scraps 13542

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From the chron....I was there and it was awesome:

As the Astros play their 20th season at Minute Maid Park, we are counting down the 20 most memorable games and/or moments in the ballpark's two decades.

Today, we look back at No. 3: The wild 18-inning clincher in Game 4 of the 2005 National League Division Series against the Braves.
 

When: Oct. 9, 2005
What: Game 4, NLDS
Score: Astros 7, Braves 6 (18 innings)

 

When the Astros and Braves began Game 4 of their fifth NLDS matchup since 1997, the series hadn't been a tightly contested one to that point, with the winning team cruising in each of the firs three games.

Game 4, however, was a much different story.

The Braves jumped on Astros starter Brandon Backe for four third-inning runs and took a 6-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth inning.

 

After the Astros reached against Braves starter Tim Hudson, he was lifted for reliever Kyle Farnsworth. A fielder's choice, double steal and walk of Luke Scott loaded the bases.

Lance Berkman then changed the complexion of the game by lining a grand slam the opposite way into the left-field Crawford Boxes to draw the Astros within a run.

Fast forward to the ninth inning. Farnsworth retired the first two hitters he faced and only had to get catcher Brad Ausmus — the Astros' No. 8 hitter who'd hit only three home runs all season — out to force a decisive Game 5 in Atlanta.

But down 2-0 in the count, Farnsworth left a pitch up and Ausmus got enough of it to just clear the yellow line above the fence in the left-center field alley to tie the score.

640x0.jpg
The Oct. 10, 2005, front page of the Astros special section in the Houston Chronicle after Game 4 of the NLDS that was decided by Chris Burke's series-winning walkoff home run.
Photo: Houston Chronicle

That began a second game of sorts, dominated by the bullpens. The Astros' bullpen threw 10 consecutive shutout innings after Atlanta scored in the eighth, with Game 2 starter Roger Clemens — who worked on two days' rest — threw three shutout innings in his first relief outing since his rookie season in 1984. The only other pitchers left were Roy Oswalt, who'd started Game 3 the previous day and Andy Pettitte, lined up to start Game 5 if needed.

"For the bullpen to come through like that and for Roger to suck up those innings, that was unbelievable," Berkman said. "That's all we got. He had to pitch."

 

After being shut out for eight innings of their own, the Astros finally ended the marathon game with one out in the bottom of the 18th inning. Chris Burke, who entered the game as a pinch runner in the 10th inning, roped Joey Devine's 2-0 pitch into the Crawford Boxes to end the longest playoff game in MLB history (it's since been tied twice.)

 

"For me, not even starting in the game in the lineup, this is about as good as it gets," Burke said. "You know, there are so many things that happened throughout the course of the day ... and luckily I was the guy that made the final one."

That put the Astros in the NLCS for the second consecutive year against the Cardinals. This time, they won in six games to advance to their first World Series.

He said it: "I don't know how to explain it," Astros manager Phil Garner said. "It's been the darnedest thing I've ever seen. It looked like it was over. It looked like we were down and out. We came back. How do you explain that game? It's like the Sunday afternoon softball game where everybody on your block gets to play."

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GHOSTUSER

GHOSTUSER 361

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Posted

Are there any pictures of what this new "knot-less" netting will look like. It was inevitable that this was going to happen after the 2 year old got hit earlier. Sucks for the kids can no longer get foul balls handed to them or line up early to get autographs. I am surprised they didn't wait until next season to do it.

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YChang

YChang 3430

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8 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Are there any pictures of what this new "knot-less" netting will look like. It was inevitable that this was going to happen after the 2 year old got hit earlier. Sucks for the kids can no longer get foul balls handed to them or line up early to get autographs. I am surprised they didn't wait until next season to do it.

There's a bit of recency bias, but there has been a lot of incidents of fans getting hit since the Astros/Cubs game.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Posted
4 hours ago, thetruth said:

Netting at MMP is getting extended

Wow, I had never heard the followup report on her:

A 2-year-old girl suffered a fractured skull when she was hit by a foul ball...the child remains on anti-seizure medication "and will for some time." She is scheduled for another MRI exam next week and also continues dealing with other medical issues, he said.  "There is some kind of stumbling issue with her, and they are watching her closely," he said. "She does not have headaches quite so severely, so there is some improvement."

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