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2019 Houston Astros Thread

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My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

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Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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Also fuck the casino In Milwaukee, charged me $3 for two bottled waters !!!!!

Haha
Man that place is a shithole... it’s been a year since I was there and I haven’t been as depressed as I was walking through there since
Did put $100 on black as my only bet. It hit. I collected and got the hell out of there.
/csb
F selig

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8052

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2 hours ago, Scraps said:

I bet there wasnt shit said from any player.

Quite possible. These aren't the 1960s, when some vet smoking a Marlboro in the locker room might have wedged him against a cinder block wall while offering a little friendly advice about being a good teammate.

That said...this is twice in recent weeks that the joker has gotten way too cute for the team's good. If there's a third, and no one in uniform seems to think it's a big deal, I'll be pretty disappointed. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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51 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Quite possible. These aren't the 1960s, when some vet smoking a Marlboro in the locker room might have wedged him against a cinder block wall while offering a little friendly advice about being a good teammate.

That said...this is twice in recent weeks that the joker has gotten way too cute for the team's good. If there's a third, and no one in uniform seems to think it's a big deal, I'll be pretty disappointed. 

I doubt it went unremarked upon by the 24 other players in the clubhouse. Ask Reymin Guduan whether shit talkin goes on behind the scenes....

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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Q&A grab bag from Kaplan

Going to be a pretty boring sept all things considered.
He does a little comparing Javier to James to last year.
Talks a little about the back end of the postseason roster. No real updates on injuries


We could debate the importance of home-field advantage in the playoffs until the end of time, but seeding is just about all the AL West-leading Astros have left to play for in the final four weeks of the regular season.

Otherwise, the biggest storylines of September pertain to player health — Carlos Correa and Ryan Pressly, most prominently — and awards and milestone chases for Justin Verlander (he’s 37 strikeouts shy of 3,000 for his career), Gerrit Cole and Yordan Alvarez. General manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch don’t figure to have too many difficult decisions for their ALDS roster, save for maybe the final couple bullpen spots and the last bench spot.

Let’s get to your questions. …

How big of a factor is it in the mind of the Rookie of the Year Award voters that Alvarez is mostly relegated to DH and doesn’t play in the field often? — Califf C.

Alvarez’s lack of defensive value might hinder his AL Rookie of the Year Award candidacy if it came down to a close vote between him and another rookie. Ditto for his low games played total (65 through Sunday). But because of both the remarkable extent of his production (a 1.081 OPS through Sunday) and the weak AL rookie field, it looks like he’s going to run away with the vote regardless.

Alvarez leads AL rookies in fWAR at 2.9, and his top competition, Brandon Lowe of the Rays (2.5), is out the rest of the season with a quad injury. John Means of the Orioles (2.4) and the Tigers’ Spencer Turnbull (2.1) have put together good rookie seasons on the pitching side, but neither has provided as much value to their team as Alvarez has to the Astros.

If Alvarez played in the NL, he would find himself behind Mets slugger Pete Alonso (4.3), Braves starter Mike Soroka (3.8), Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (3.6) and Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds (3.5).

There is precedent for a player winning his league’s Rookie of the Year Award with such a small sample of performance. Alvarez came into the week with 279 plate appearances and as many as 24 games left to play. Hall of Famer Willie McCovey won the 1959 NL Rookie of the Year Award despite having only 219 plate appearances. More recently, in 2005, Ryan Howard won with 348 plate appearances.

It would’ve been interesting to see the kind of numbers Alvarez would’ve put up if the Astros hadn’t held him in Triple A until June 9, a blatant example of service time manipulation enacted to save the team millions of dollars down the road. With even 100 more plate appearances, Alvarez might’ve rivaled Joe Morgan’s 1965 and Jeff Bagwell’s 1991 for the best rookie seasons in franchise history.

If (Kyle) Tucker comes up (in September) and shows some consistent power and hits around .280, would he have a shot at making a postseason roster over (Josh) Reddick if Reddick’s slump continues throughout September? — Shane T.

Tucker won’t make a postseason roster over Reddick but could make it in addition to Reddick, most likely as a bench bat. The Astros seem intent on continuing to give Reddick regular playing time. He’s a strong defender in right field, much more so than Tucker, and they can live with a lack of slugging from the nine-hole as long as Reddick grinds out competitive at-bats.

It’s unclear how much Tucker will even play in September; he will join the team Monday in Milwaukee. He’s a really streaky hitter, and if he catches fire in his opportunities the Astros would have to consider an increased role. But the odds are he will play a part-time role and compete with infielder Abraham Toro and catcher Garrett Stubbs for the final bench spot on the ALDS roster. Toro, the hero of Verlander’s third career no-hitter, is likely ahead of Tucker right now.

How likely is a Reddick trade this offseason? Also, how does Toro fit in the future for the team? — Cole T.

Any attempt by the Astros to trade Reddick in the offseason will be complicated by his $13 million salary for 2020. He’s on his second consecutive season of producing a below-average OPS and will be 33 in February. Paying down some of his salary and/or packaging him with a prospect might be the only way for Houston to move him.

An alternative for the Astros might be to bring back Reddick in a reduced role and trade Jake Marisnick, who as an arbitration-eligible player will have a much more modest salary than Reddick. Myles Straw represents a potential Marisnick replacement, and Straw’s remaining minor league option years would also make for a more flexible roster.

Toro’s future role is uncertain. He’s somewhat redundant on a healthy roster with Aledmys Díaz, a first-year arbitration-eligible player this winter who is under team control through the 2022 season. It’s possible Toro begins next season back in Triple A and is then the first call-up in the event of an injury to an infielder.

Since coming to the Astros, (Zack) Greinke has been good but not as dominant as before, and certainly not as much as the hype. He also struggled a bit after signing with Arizona in 2016. Is it just moving to a new league? Was the hype overblown? Why do you think he’s performed well but maybe below some fans’ expectations? — Jason M.

Before I get to my response, let’s examine the results.

Greinke in his 23 starts with Arizona this season (146 innings): 2.90 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.945 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, .614 opponent OPS

Greinke in his five starts with Houston (31.1 innings): 3.45 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.309 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, .742 opponent OPS

I know it doesn’t make for the most interesting explanation, but the regression here could be as simple as small-sample randomness. Greinke has had worse five-start stretches this year, including to begin the season. And while he’s given up more hits than usual since joining the Astros and his start in Oakland was really the only dominant outing he’s had so far, the end result in four of his five starts has still been pretty good.

I’m not sure how much can be attributed to the change in league or team. And he came to Houston so analytically savvy that I don’t think the Astros have even changed much with his attack plan. Marquee deadline acquisitions always come with exorbitant hype because of the weeks of buildup that lead to July 31. But I don’t think Greinke’s five starts in August are necessarily indicative of how he will pitch moving forward. It’s more so just a small snapshot of his overall season, in which he has a 2.99 ERA.

Do you expect the Astros to make a market-rate offer to Cole this offseason (similar AAV to Verlander and Greinke)? — Andrew S.

The Verlander extension at an average annual value of $33 million was for only two years, so it’s a bad comp for the contract Cole is about to get, which figures to be at least six years. Greinke got a record $34.4 million over six years, but that was also in a different era of free agency.

Cole’s impending mega deal might still reach Greinke-level proportions — he’s that good — but I highly doubt he will get it from the Astros given their current payroll commitments plus their front office’s lack of a track record in investing in free-agent pitchers to long-term deals. One has to believe they’ll make some sort of offer beyond the one-year qualifying offer, but it’s unclear how high they’ll be willing to go.

The largest free-agent starting pitcher contract the Astros have doled out under Luhnow is still Scott Feldman’s three-year, $30-million deal from way back in 2014. They did commit $66 million to Verlander for the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but there is no precedent for them guaranteeing a pitcher four years, let alone six, seven or eight. However, there also aren’t many pitchers as safe a bet as Cole, who has a track record of performance and health and is still very much in his prime.

Last season, Josh James debuted in September and contributed down the stretch, eventually earning a spot on the playoff roster. Are there any pitchers in our minor league system remaining who’ve yet to debut, but could contribute significantly during the last month of the season and potentially make the playoff roster, or have the Astros pretty much tapped those reserves? — Jordan A.

I don’t think this will happen, but the pitcher who best fits that criteria is Cristian Javier, the 22-year-old Dominican right-hander who recently reached Triple A.

Javier began the season in High A but was promoted in May to Double A, where he had a 2.07 ERA and .471 opponent OPS with 114 strikeouts against 39 walks in 74 innings. In his first two starts in Triple A, he has a 1.64 ERA and a .484 opponent OPS.

Though it sits only 92-93 mph, Javier’s fastball is his best pitch. It is deceptive both because of his delivery and his low three-quarters arm slot. His slider and changeup have improved in the last year or so, and he also has a curveball that’s his biggest development pitch.

Javier is eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft in December, so he’s a lock to be added to the 40-man roster in November as protection. Adding him two months early would mean a corresponding move elsewhere on the 40-man roster, which is full.

Hello Jake. Will we see a Forrest Whitley cameo in September? — Richard M.

With the injuries to our bullpen and his recent encouraging outing, would the Astros give any thought to calling up Whitley in September and having him forgo the AFL? Or is that not possible since he’s already been announced as on the roster? — Alex D.

I grouped these two questions together for obvious reasons. No, I don’t think you will see a Forrest Whitley cameo in September. It has nothing to do with his Arizona Fall League assignment, either. Myles Straw was originally supposed to play in the AFL last year but dropped out when he was called up to the Astros in September and included on their ALDS roster in October. In Whitley’s case, his performance simply doesn’t warrant a promotion to the majors this season.

His recent encouraging outing in Double A notwithstanding, Whitley is in only Double A, a level he first reached in 2017. He’s there only because of how much he struggled in Triple A, where he had a 12.21 ERA and allowed nine home runs in 24 1/3 innings to begin the season. After how this year transpired for him, the Astros will probably want to see him conquer Triple A next season before considering a call-up.

Whitley remains Houston’s best pitching prospect long-term because of his rare mix of velocity and movement in a five-pitch arsenal, but he has a lot of work to do to fulfill his potential. His delivery is still a work in progress, and he needs to be less predictable with his fastball usage.

With (Brad) Peacock’s shoulder issue, what do you think the playoff bullpen roster looks like? — Califf F.

For the ALDS, the Astros will carry seven relievers. Roberto Osuna and Will Harris are locks and so is Ryan Pressly if he can make it back in time from his recent right knee surgery. Héctor Rondón and Joe Smith seem to be likely choices, and Josh James could cement his spot with a solid September.

That leaves one opening, for which there is no great candidate. Joe Biagini and Framber Valdez might presently be the frontrunners for that spot by default unless Aaron Sanchez, Peacock or Collin McHugh can make it back and prove to be both healthy enough and effective before the end of the month.

How much rehab time will Pressly need to get ready and be back for the ALDS or a few games before that? Where would he pitch in rehab games since the minor league season would be over? — Doug T.

This is random, but by the time Pressly is ready to pitch to hitters for rehab the minor league season will be over. I’m curious if he would be able to make any appearances in the Arizona Fall League to face some hitters before coming back? The Cubs were able to get (Kyle) Schwarber some ABs before the World Series in 2016, so I didn’t know if that was a possibility or not. — Aaron M.

The Astros won’t have the luxury of time on their side as it pertains to Pressly’s rehab. Their hope is he can make it back for the final days of the regular season as a tune-up for October, similar to Lance McCullers Jr. last season, but that is far from a given.

I’m not sure the Arizona Fall League would be an option for Pressly given he will presumably eventually move his rehab to the Astros spring training facility in West Palm Beach, Florida. I think the 2016 Schwarber comp would be more fitting if the Astros’ complex was in Arizona, which is where the Cubs train.

A more likely setting for Pressly to rehab is the Astros’ instructional league, which is scheduled for Sept. 12-26 in West Palm Beach. It will feature 25 pitchers and 25 position players, a group consisting primarily of their 2019 draftees. Pressly could potentially throw live batting practice sessions there in lieu of a rehab assignment.

With the lower level MLB roster cleanout at the deadline, are there any more of our bench players and younger pitchers running out of options in near future seasons? — Rick R.

Marisnick technically still has one option year remaining but is essentially an out-of-options player by virtue of having exceeded five years of service time, a benchmark that affords him the right to refuse an optional assignment.

Biagini should still have one option year remaining coming into next season, as his recent Triple A stint lasted fewer than 20 days. I believe left-hander Cionel Perez also will come into next season down to his final option year, after being shuttled between Triple A and the majors in each of the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Jake, can you provide a rundown on the top 10 Astros pitching prospects currently in the minors along with current age and minor league level? — Mark P.

I can try my best. Ranking prospects is obviously a matter of opinion and I haven’t seen several of these pitchers first-hand, but here’s what I came up with for a top 10 right now based on those I have seen and the conversations I’ve had with evaluators.

RHP Forrest Whitley, 21, Double A
RHP Brandon Bielak, 23, Triple A
RHP Bryan Abreu, 22, Double A
RHP Cristian Javier, 22, Triple A
RHP José Urquidy, 24, Triple A
RHP Tyler Ivey, 23, Double A
RHP Jojanse Torres, 24, High A
RHP Enoli Paredes, 23, Double A
RHP Brett Conine, 22, Double A
RHP Jairo Solis, 19, Low A

 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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so can someone less lazy than me do the math for jv to pinpoint when he'll get to 3000?

hoping it's here during the anaheim set.

also hoping trout isn't chasing any crazy statistical milestones during that series.

Sorry, it’s a crapshoot depending on how AJ manages the rotation with those two off days around the Rangers series.

As is, he’d likely make his last start in Seattle...but that would leave a long gap between his last start and LDS game 1.

 

Edit: actually I think that last part almost guarantees he’ll start a game in Anaheim... LDS game 1 isn’t until Fri, Oct 4. He could easily line up to start Saturday in Anaheim... but that could be his 5th start from now and he’s tracking to hit 3,000 in his 4th start

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Scraps

Scraps 13541

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

so can someone less lazy than me do the math for jv to pinpoint when he'll get to 3000?

hoping it's here during the anaheim set.

also hoping trout isn't chasing any crazy statistical milestones during that series.

hell at this point he may do it against the Rangers.  He only needs 37Ks and the Rangers should be his 3rd start.  Anaheim at home seems more likely though.  I think they keep him on every 5th day and don't fuck with it.  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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5 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


Sorry, it’s a crapshoot depending on how AJ manages the rotation with those two off days around the Rangers series.
As is, he’d likely make his last start in Seattle...but that would leave a long gap between his last start and LDS game 1.

yeah, the alds g1 isn't until friday oct 4th.  so even if jv pitched the last game of the season (unlikely) he would be on regular rest for g1.  depending on our home field situation, i would think we'd want to get all those guys some innings in that anaheim series.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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yeah, the alds g1 isn't until friday oct 4th.  so even if jv pitched the last game of the season (unlikely) he would be on regular rest for g1.  depending on our home field situation, i would think we'd want to get all those guys some innings in that anaheim series.


Yes, that’s right. The home field will be the biggest driver in all of this and how desperate we are in potentially skipping the 5th spot in the rotation, but my bet is the following. he needs 37, or averaging 12.3 per start to hit it in his 3rd start from now, 9.25 in his 4th start, or 7.4 in his 5th start:

Sat, 9/7 Sea: 5 days between starts

Wed, 9/12 Oak: 4

Tue, 9/17 Tex: 4

Sun, 9/22 LAA: 4

Sat, 9/28 @LAA: 5

LDS game 1, 10/4: 5
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22598

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I hate when Hinch gets too cute and rests Altuve for no reason when we are already without Yordan... and the day before an off day.  I understand load management, but you're handicapping yourself for no reason tonight.

Weirdly excited to watch Greinke bat, though.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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39 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Is Correa coming back this season or has Mr. Daniella shut it down to concentrate on wedding plans?

CARLOS CORREA SS, HOUSTON ASTROS

Carlos Correa (back) hit off a tee Tuesday in Houston.

It was his first real swinging workout since he landed on the injured list August 20 with lower back discomfort. Correa is still probably at least a week away from returning to the Astros' active roster, and possibly closer to two weeks. Alex Bregman will continue to do most of the filling in at shortstop.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9376

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So I have an open invitation to have dinner with bud selig 

All the BS/smart ass responses aside, that’s awesome and would be a blast.

 

He’d be interesting to sit and listen to for an hour. I know he teaches a class a some university up there and used to regularly call in to sports talks shows back in the day to weigh in on random topics. Has a relatively new book out too I believe

 

There. I gave you 3 talking points. Never mind seeing what he’d say about the Hurricane Ike game and the Astros ownership change/moving to AL

 

You can also ask him about being indicted in the HOF in the same class as Bagwell.

 

There. Now 6 talking points

 

Oh, and he made all his money in the car dealership business. When’s the best time to buy/best approach to get the best deal?

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