2019 Houston Astros Thread

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

The 2019 AL CY Young Voting Guide

By Craig Edwards

With just over a week to go in the regular season, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are running neck and neck as favorites for the American League Cy Young award. Verlander leads the league in innings (212) and ERA (2.50). Cole has the lead in strikeouts with 302 with Verlander 19 behind. Even after accounting for Verlander’s 34 homers, his 3.28 FIP is still one of the best marks in the league. On Cole’s side are the strikeouts, a league-leading 2.78 FIP and a 6.7 WAR half a win clear of Verlander. Several other pitchers, like Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn, boast strong resumes, and with five slots on voters’ ballots, many pitchers will receive down-ballot consideration worthy of discussion.

While awards voting is a mostly objective process, when trying to differentiate between a group of very good pitchers, personal preferences are likely to play into the selections. When voters rely on particular stats, be it FIP, ERA, or some other metric, they are making decisions about the importance of defense, park, opponent, and how much talent a big league pitcher is expected to exhibit when it comes to contact quality. Before we get to all of those issues, let’s identify the candidates. There’s a fairly clear top seven among AL starting pitchers (Liam Hendriks might deserve some consideration as well) with Eduardo Rodriguez also included due to his rank based on Baseball-Reference’s WAR.

 

Here are the eight pitchers under consideration, with some traditional and more advanced statistics:

 

AL Cy Young Candidates

	Gerrit Cole	Lance Lynn	Justin Verlander	Charlie Morton	Shane Bieber	Lucas Giolito	Mike Minor	Eduardo Rodriguez
IP	200.1	195.2	212	182.1	201.1	176.2	194.2	185.1
K%	39.1%	27.2%	35.3%	30.0%	30.5%	32.3%	23.4%	24.2%
BB%	6.0%	6.9%	5.0%	7.1%	4.9%	8.1%	7.7%	8.7%
HR/9	1.26	0.92	1.44	0.69	1.34	1.22	1.20	1.12
BABIP	.274	.321	.212	.303	.288	.273	.283	.311
ERA	2.61	3.77	2.50	3.16	3.26	3.41	3.33	3.64
ERA-	59	75	56	71	67	75	66	75
FIP	2.73	3.24	3.28	2.84	3.39	3.44	4.08	4.00
FIP-	61	68	73	64	74	74	85	88
WAR	6.7	6.1	6.1	5.6	5.2	5.1	4.2	3.2

1st=Blue, 2nd=Orange, 3rd=Red

A look above shows Gerrit Cole leading in the more advanced statistics, with Verlander gaining the nod from traditional metrics, and Lance Lynn and Charlie Morton sort of splitting the difference between the two Astros. Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito are a bit behind, with Giolito unable to add anything to his file after being shut down for the season. Mike Minor’s case is made by his low ERA combined with his difficult park, as his strikeouts and walks lag behind the other candidates. Eduardo Rodriguez is the poor man’s version of Minor.

If we looked at FanGraphs WAR, we’d see Cole as the leader due to his incredible strikeout rate and ability to limit homers, at least somewhat. Though he has a 20-inning deficit compared to Verlander, the strikeouts and homers make enough of a difference for Cole to take the day. Verlander and Lynn are in a dead heat when it comes to WAR, with the huge difference in home runs balancing Verlander’s lead in strikeouts and walks and Lynn’s more difficult park in which to keep balls in the field of play. Comparing Lynn to Morton, we see Morton with the homer advantage, but the innings deficit, combined with Tampa Bay being a hard park to homer in, gives Lynn the edge.

If you believe in the importance of getting strikeouts, inducing pop-ups, and preventing walks and homers, and that the park and league one plays in should be the factors when considering how good a pitcher has been, then you don’t really need to look further than the WAR totals above, which have Cole in front, Lynn and Verlander a tossup, and Morton bringing up the rear. This view ignores what happens on non-pop-up batted balls that stay in the field play, however. There are a few reasons for taking this route; it’s difficult to separate pitching talent from a player’s defense, and to confidently ascribe the results of those batted balls to pitcher talent rather than mere luck. Still, there are other ways of evaluating pitchers.

 

We will get to contact quality in a moment, but first let’s take a look at the different versions of WAR. Below are the versions of WAR found at FanGraphs (our FIP-based version along with RA9-WAR), plus the versions from Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus:

 

AL Cy Young Candidates’ WAR

	Gerrit Cole	Lance Lynn	Justin Verlander	Charlie Morton	Shane Bieber	Lucas Giolito	Mike Minor	Eduardo Rodriguez
WAR	6.7	6.1	6.1	5.6	5.2	5.1	4.2	3.2
RA/9 WAR	7.0	5.5	8.6	5.1	5.9	5.1	6.5	5.0
BRef	6.1	6.8	7.8	4.5	4.9	5.7	7.9	5.8
BPro	7.0	5.5	7.6	5.3	4.9	5.7	4.1	2.8
wAVG	6.8	5.9	7.3	5.2	5.2	5.4	5.2	3.8

1st=Blue, 2nd=Orange, 3rd=Red
wAVG is WAR plus the average of RA9 and BRef plus BPro all divided by three.

In the average above, RA9-WAR and BRef WAR are similar enough that they were counted as one for the result. If you trust the general framework of WAR, but don’t want to put too much emphasis on a FIP-model used here, the runs model used at Baseball-Reference and in RA9-WAR, or the more complicated DRA-based version of Baseball Prospectus, a simple average puts Verlander in the clear lead with Cole a clear second and Lynn an easy third choice, with the next four contenders all in a bunch. If that approach isn’t for you, we need to dig down to show exactly what each metric emphasizes.

Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR takes more information into account, including defense and opponents, which is how Mike Minor fares so well. The Rangers play in a difficult park and face difficult opponents and don’t have a great defense. Minor’s success in run-prevention despite those difficult circumstances causes him to lead Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, though he falls behind in the other versions. This was a major issue in Aaron Nola’s Cy Young case last season, as the adjustment for a poor defense might not have been warranted. Baseball Prospectus’ WARP attempts to isolate “every pitching event” and credit pitchers for their role in those events.

In many ways, the versions of WAR are all trying to do the same thing, which is to credit a pitcher for certain outcomes based on the pitcher’s work. This isn’t new. It’s why earned run average tries to strip away the unearned runs. ERA, Baseball-Reference’s WAR and RA/9 WAR both look at the number of runs and then work backwards to try to arrive at a deserved result. FIP-based WAR looks at the outcomes most controlled by the pitcher (walks and strikeouts) and then adds or subtracts credit for some batted balls via the home run and infield flies, and gives credit for all outs made. Baseball Prospectus looks at the most likely outcomes given the circumstances and assigns a value.

One piece of information we haven’t yet discussed, but which might be illuminating, is the data provided by Statcast. Using xwOBA, we can take a closer look at the results on batted balls to find out how much of a role luck or defense might have played in the results a pitcher experienced. In addition to those batted balls, xwOBA uses strikeouts and walks to come up with a single expected wOBA. It’s very similar to FIP, except instead of using home runs, it uses expected outcomes for all batted balls based on launch angle and exit velocity. Here’s where the Cy Young contenders sit this season, along with their actual wOBA and the difference between the two:

 

AL Cy Young Candidates’ xwOBA

Player	xwOBA	wOBA	xwOBA-wOBA
Lance Lynn	.290	.301	-.011
Eduardo Rodriguez	.301	.311	-.010
Gerrit Cole	.242	.251	-.009
MLB	.319	.324	-.005
Mike Minor	.294	.296	-.002
Lucas Giolito	.279	.279	.000
Charlie Morton	.278	.277	.001
Justin Verlander	.244	.242	.002
Shane Bieber	.298	.281	.017

1st=Blue, 2nd=Orange, 3rd=Red

Verlander and Cole again sit head and shoulders above the rest, but Charlie Morton is a strong third. In terms of luck and defense, Lynn, Cole, and Rodriguez have experienced some bad luck or poor defense, while Shane Bieber has benefited. The above numbers factor in the result of every plate appearance, but if we want to look just at contact, we can remove walks and strikeouts:

 

AL Cy Young Candidates’ xwOBA on Contact

Player	xwOBA	wOBA	xwOBA-wOBA
Gerrit Cole	.364	.382	-.018
Lance Lynn	.363	.379	-.016
Eduardo Rodriguez	.356	.371	-.015
MLB	.384	.376	-.008
Mike Minor	.347	.350	-.003
Lucas Giolito	.373	.372	.001
Charlie Morton	.355	.353	.002
Justin Verlander	.346	.344	.002
Shane Bieber	.407	.380	.027

1st=Blue, 2nd=Orange, 3rd=Red

We still see Cole, Lynn, and Rodriguez experiencing some bad luck with Bieber getting help. What’s interesting here is how bunched up most of these pitchers are on contact. Six of the eight’s xwOBAs are within 20 points of each other, with Giolito a little further away and Bieber pretty far off. If we remove home runs, we get an outlier in the group:

 

AL Cy Young Candidates’ xwOBA on Balls In Play

Player	xwOBA	wOBA	xwOBA-wOBA
Lance Lynn	.319	.317	.002
Eduardo Rodriguez	.305	.295	.010
Mike Minor	.290	.267	.023
Charlie Morton	.326	.301	.025
MLB	.321	.292	.029
Lucas Giolito	.308	.272	.036
Gerrit Cole	.304	.267	.037
Justin Verlander	.273	.216	.057
Shane Bieber	.345	.280	.065

1st=Blue, 2nd=Orange, 3rd=Red

When we remove Verlander’s home runs, instead of looking a bit lucky (10 points better than the league differential), his results on balls in play look incredibly fortunate. Looking only at Verlander’s homers for contact might not be ideal, but considering his results on balls in play and the resulting runs isn’t going to isolate his talent, either. Lynn’s results on balls in play look very unlucky, while Cole moves from being unfortunate on all batted balls to fortunate when homers are removed. While Cole gave up a decent number of homers, a few might have been a bit unlucky, which was actually Verlander’s problem last season.

Verlander has earned his homers and been lucky on balls in play, but when combining Verlander’s batted balls with his strikeouts and walks, he and Cole stand above the rest of the league. The gap between Lynn’s very good FIP and decent ERA is easily explainable by bad luck on batted balls in play. Morton’s contact has more or less evened out. How much you rely on xwOBA depends on how much control you believe a pitcher has over his batted balls. It removes the defense, save for the extra batters a pitcher with a poor defense has to pitch to, and it should remove consideration for parks, but it is not very results-based outside of the walks and strikeouts. Still, it’s another tool to use when trying to separate pitchers who have had similar seasons.

The last few tables don’t incorporate innings, and getting more outs is better, so I created a rather crude xWAR based on xwOBA. These are the results for all AL pitches with at least 100 innings (conclusion after the table):

 

WAR based on xWOBA

Name	IP	WAR	xWOBA	xWAR
Justin Verlander	212	6.1	.244	8.1
Gerrit Cole	192.1	6.7	.242	7.8
Charlie Morton	182.1	5.6	.278	5.2
Lucas Giolito	176.2	5.1	.279	4.9
Lance Lynn	195.2	6.1	.290	4.8
Mike Minor	194.2	4.2	.294	4.4
Shane Bieber	201.1	5.2	.298	4.3
Chris Sale	147.1	3.6	.283	3.9
Matthew Boyd	176.1	3	.296	3.9
Eduardo Rodriguez	185.1	3.2	.301	3.8
Jose Berrios	188.1	4.1	.302	3.8
Mike Clevinger	107.1	3.9	.260	3.6
Wade Miley	162.1	2.1	.297	3.6
Blake Snell	103	2.6	.260	3.5
Ryan Yarbrough	133.1	2.9	.285	3.4
Martin Perez	157.1	2	.301	3.3
James Paxton	143.2	3.3	.296	3.2
Marcus Stroman	124.2	3	.286	3.2
Jake Odorizzi	147.1	3.7	.299	3.1
Marco Gonzales	189	3.6	.313	3.1
John Means	143	2.8	.298	3.1
Masahiro Tanaka	172	3	.312	2.9
Dylan Bundy	149.2	2.2	.309	2.7
Chris Bassitt	139	2	.307	2.6
Trevor Bauer	156.2	2.7	.314	2.5
Michael Pineda	146	2.7	.313	2.4
Domingo German	140.2	2	.314	2.2
David Price	107.1	2.4	.307	2.0
CC Sabathia	103.2	0.3	.309	1.8
Yonny Chirinos	126.2	1.8	.318	1.8
Homer Bailey	151.1	2.2	.326	1.8
J.A. Happ	151	1.1	.327	1.7
Brad Keller	165.1	2.2	.330	1.7
Kyle Gibson	155	2.4	.329	1.6
Reynaldo Lopez	172	2.3	.334	1.5
Mike Fiers	171.2	1.3	.337	1.4
Trent Thornton	144.1	1.8	.332	1.4
Tommy Milone	102.1	0.1	.322	1.3
Rick Porcello	162.1	1.3	.337	1.2
Adam Plutko	103.2	0.6	.326	1.2
Spencer Turnbull	132	2.2	.334	1.1
Daniel Norris	138.1	1.7	.339	1.0
Wade LeBlanc	121.1	-0.3	.341	0.7
Mike Leake	137	1.3	.345	0.7
Yusei Kikuchi	151.2	0	.345	0.7
Jakob Junis	175.1	1.5	.347	0.7
Andrew Cashner	144.1	1.7	.346	0.7
Brett Anderson	171	1.9	.349	0.6
Jalen Beeks	101.2	0.3	.341	0.6
Aaron Sanchez	131.1	0.8	.345	0.5
Danny Duffy	118.2	1	.346	0.5
Ivan Nova	176	1.7	.351	0.5
Zach Plesac	106.1	0.8	.349	0.4
Aaron Brooks	101	0.2	.354	0.1
Gabriel Ynoa	100.1	-0.3	.357	0.0
Jorge Lopez	115.1	0.2	.358	0.0
Ariel Jurado	118.1	1	.362	-0.2
Glenn Sparkman	127	-0.6	.362	-0.2
Jordan Zimmermann	104	1.3	.365	-0.3
Adrian Sampson	121	0.4	.371	-0.6

If contact quality is important to you, then Verlander and Cole are the clear 1-2 in the Cy Young race, with Morton, Giolito, and Lynn in a second tier. If pure results are key, look to RA9-WAR. If you want those results adjusted, Baseball-Reference can help. If you want a more dialed down version of the WAR based on expected contributions, Baseball Prospectus is there to help. If you’re skeptical that we can reasonably isolate defense or contact quality as a skill in a single season, FanGraphs’ FIP-based WAR can help by using strikeouts, walks, and only the strongest and weakest contact in the form of homers and popups. When choosing between a set of very good pitchers all of whom are having very good years, you have to decide what you believe is most important in terms of results and deserved results, and how much control a pitcher has over individual aspects of the game. We try to be as objective as possible, but a little subjectivity is bound to creep in when making these kinds of decisions.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

I thought is was JV's to lose after the no-hitter. I still lean that way, but if Cole gets to 8 consecutive starts with 10+ Ks or even breaks the record by getting to 9, that could be enough to push him over the edge. 

[henrygandorf 29189]

i heard on mlbn radio yesterday that we have the highest team wrc in the last 50 years.

we also will own every 1st and 2nd place vote for al cy young.

that probably happens a lot?

[tx 3 putt 76881]

This team is a sleeping giant, waiting for the playoffs. Uncle Mike and Cole want that ring. 

Edited September 19, 2019 by tx 3 putt

[TonyTexas 10509]

I’m not going to do the research but I’m fairly positive that no team has ever had 3 straight 100+ game losing seasons and 3 straight 100+ game winning seasons within a 9 year time frame. And I can confidently say that it will never happen again. Just an amazing turnaround.

[TonyTexas 10509]

This couldn’t hurt

[Pimphand 5735]

4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’m not going to do the research but I’m fairly positive that no team has ever had 3 straight 100+ game losing seasons and 3 straight 100+ game winning seasons within a 9 year time frame. And I can confidently say that it will never happen again. Just an amazing turnaround.

Yes it has never happened it could happen again theoretically but the odds have to be very slim.  If you were to put the time frame of say "in a decade" on it then it would be almost impossible because you'd have to suck ass at the beginning of the decade and dominate at the end of the decade which would be even harder to do than in any 9 year span.

[runthebone 7967]

Hey...

 

 

[Pimphand 5735]

3 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Hey...

I mean didn't Champman have some similar issues once upon a time?

[Dondrysdale1 363]

Is Yordan on the list of guys Keith Law was wrong about? It’s ESPN plus

[Guadaloopy 10960]

25 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

I mean didn't Champman have some similar issues once upon a time?

He did.  Right before the Yankees paid him big.  

[Pimphand 5735]

Yeah I'm all for the guy taking a stance against domestic violence it just seems shitty that he cites the Astros with Osuna while completely glossing over his own team with Chapman.

I guess after the whole Helobious debacle I don't exactly expect MFY fans to be smart or sane...

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

Worst part about being stranded downtown today is no Astros game tonight.  Fuck off days.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

2 hours ago, Dondrysdale1 said:

Is Yordan on the list of guys Keith Law was wrong about? It’s ESPN plus

No. Law's position on Yordan is that he has always been able to hit but (a) he lacks a defensive position, and (b) lacks athleticism and has a skill set that ages quickly. That's why he didn't show up high on prospect ranking lists. It's basically that he has to hit the shit out of the ball to have any value...which he's obviously done, but the odds of anyone hitting like Yordan has over his first half-season are almost zero, as just about nobody has ever done what Yordan is doing. As such, DH types generally won't be ranked highly as prospects. 

The Fangraphs guys basically had the same opinion, but have conceded that (a) if the National League adopts the DH, players like Yordan would be rated more highly (because they'd have value to all teams), and (b) Yordan has shown enough that they acknowledge that they were probably a little too low on him. 

[runthebone 7967]

I'm sure it's going to be devastating when his Hall of Fame plaque says:  1600 homers.  Lacked a defensive position.  Lacked athleticism.  Part of Josh Fields trade.

[Mez2 4023]

2 minutes ago, runthebone said:

I'm sure it's going to be devastating when his Hall of Fame plaque says:  1600 homers.  Lacked a defensive position.  Lacked athleticism.  Part of Josh Fields trade.

"Biggest Cuban dick. Literally. of all time" will cover for that

[henrygandorf 29189]

derosa on mlb central this morning kept mentioning the way cole thanked the fans after the 300k applause, and how he just doesn't look like a guy ready to leave the city/team/fanbase.  ro-flo of course, told him he's gone, also mentioning as an astros fan, he's prone to negativity.  but de-ro brought it up a couple more times.

damn him for putting even a little hope in my heart.

[Jshep34 2308]

Why would cole want to leave. He can stay here and chase rings for next 3 or 4 years. Understand he wants to get paid and cash in

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

4 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Why would cole want to leave. He can stay here and chase rings for next 3 or 4 years. Understand he wants to get paid and cash in

We're going to use the cash set aside for Correa's eventual pay day to pull it off.

[UTexasFight 9431]

The 1,600 HRs is nice but I’m most excited about this part:

 

 

Imposing figure at the plate who’s powerful swing from the middle of the Astros order provided the offensive foundation that propelled the team to 7 World Series titles within a 10 year stretch.

 

 

[APMP 688]

The 1,600 HRs is nice but I’m most excited about this part:
 
 
Imposing figure at the plate who’s powerful swing from the middle of the Astros order provided the offensive foundation that propelled the team to 7 World Series titles within a 10 year stretch.
 
 

Schwinnnnnng

[HtownHorn 14673]

If the Astros go 6-3 in their final 9 games, the Yankees would have to go 8-1 and Dodgers 9-0 to take home field from them. The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Yankees due to 4-3 series HTH and the tie breaker over the Dodgers (11-9 inter-league to the Dodgers 10-10).

Edited September 19, 2019 by HtownHorn

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

If the Astros go 6-3 in their final 9 games, the Yankees would have to go 8-1 and Dodgers 9-0 to take home field from them. The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Yankees due to 4-3 series HTH and the tie breaker over the Dodgers (11-9 inter-league to the Dodgers 10-10).

My understanding is that the tie breaker between us and the Dodgers is record against the division not interleague record. We are 49-18 against the AL West. The Dodgers are 43-24 against the NL West. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/world-series-home-field-advantage-c252671498

If the two pennant winners go into the Fall Classic with identical regular-season records, the first tiebreaker will be head-to-head record in the regular season. If the teams did not play during the season during Interleague Play, the tiebreaker would go to the team with the better overall record against teams in its own division. If that were also a tie, the tiebreaker would be intraleague records (the NL club's record vs. NL teams and the AL team's record vs. AL teams).

Edited September 19, 2019 by Seasick Sailor

[HtownHorn 14673]

1 hour ago, Jshep34 said:

Why would cole want to leave. He can stay here and chase rings for next 3 or 4 years. Understand he wants to get paid and cash in

Even if a West Coast team pays him more, it would have to be substantial more to counter act the state taxes in California (13.3%). I think Crane and Luhnow make him an offer that makes it difficult for him to leave an organization that has put him on a path to the HOF.

[tx 3 putt 76881]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We're going to use the cash set aside for Correa's eventual pay day to pull it off.

You can do a lot with $500mil !!!

[TonyTexas 10509]

Nm

 

[HtownHorn 14673]

11 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

My understanding is that the tie breaker between us and the Dodgers is record against the division not interleague record. We are 49-18 against the AL West. The Dodgers are 43-24 against the NL West. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/world-series-home-field-advantage-c252671498

You are right. I read intra as inter. Same situation though. The only way either team gets home field is essentially winning out and hope the Astros drop at least 3 games. Currently Verlander, Cole, and Greinke are scheduled to start 6 of those games. With the ALDS starting on Friday, the Astros will also be able to set up the rotation Verlander, Greinke, Cole or Verlander, Cole, Greinke

Edited September 19, 2019 by HtownHorn

[tx 3 putt 76881]

2 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

state taxes in California (13.3%).

This + play two more years with your two bros

im hoping we have a 1/5 chance of keeping him 

[TonyTexas 10509]

Signing Cole will take a very creative, backloaded contract unless Crane is willing to pay lots of luxury tax.

[Guadaloopy 10960]

This + play two more years with your two bros
im hoping we have a 1/5 chance of keeping him 

[tx 3 putt 76881]

Astros / Yankees / angels / padres / cubsdosgersredsoxwjitesox 

1/5 

[Jshep34 2308]

Think the tax part sometimes gets overlooked by players/agents. Hope he stays. Side note if you were to trade CC at end of next year what do you ask for

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

Don’t athletes pay state/local tax based on where each game is played?  This still means playing 81+ games in Texas is still better than 81+ in CA but not a full 13% state income on the entire salary.   And the recent tax changes must be a killer in that you have a 10k limit on state taxes on your federal tax return.

i would imagine cole wants to stay in Houston but if I were him, I wouldn’t take much of a pay cut to stay.

 

[tx 3 putt 76881]

Doesn’t Pittsburgh have a pro athlete tax ?

[Jshep34 2308]

They pay taxes in each state they play a game in. If you play for dodgers you pay for 81 games then add on series vs padres, giants, and angels.

[Smax 3800]

24 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Don’t athletes pay state/local tax based on where each game is played?  This still means playing 81+ games in Texas is still better than 81+ in CA but not a full 13% state income on the entire salary.   And the recent tax changes must be a killer in that you have a 10k limit on state taxes on your federal tax return.

i would imagine cole wants to stay in Houston but if I were him, I wouldn’t take much of a pay cut to stay.

 

 

 

California residents pay California state tax regardless of where their games are at so they will be dinged twice, whereas someone playing for the Stros would just pay the state income tax for the states that have it

[Limp Brisket 546]

Cole isn’t staying.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

1 minute ago, Limp Brisket said:

Cole isn’t staying.

I agree but the main reason isn’t whether he wants to or not, it’s because the Astros aren’t going to offer him enough. 

 

As for the CA state tax comment above, I believe it’s more complicated than that. But I’m dropping the subject because who cares.

[WBT 20561]

Yankees beat the Angels 9-1.  Chapman pitched the 9th for some reason.

f offdays, especially 2 in a week

Edited September 20, 2019 by WBT

[henrygandorf 29189]

2 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

You are right. I read intra as inter. Same situation though. The only way either team gets home field is essentially winning out and hope the Astros drop at least 3 games. Currently Verlander, Cole, and Greinke are scheduled to start 6 of those games. With the ALDS starting on Friday, the Astros will also be able to set up the rotation Verlander, Greinke, Cole or Verlander, Cole, Greinke

i've been thinking about this (while trying not to overthink it).

not in the alds, but in the alcs, if we have homefield, i would consider going jv-greinke-cole, and here's why:

greinke at home vs nyy sp2 is still a pitching advantage, and we're at home.  but cole in g3 on the road against the nyy sp3 is a massive advantage in what is always a pivotal game (taking you to 2-1 or possibly 3-0).  then you have jv on the road in g5, and come home with greinke and cole.  that would suck to be on the wrong side of.

greinke has had moments, and obviously has plenty of experience, but rolling him out there in g3 in yankee stadium tied 1-1 doesn't make me super confident.

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

2 hours ago, Jshep34 said:

Side note if you were to trade CC at end of next year what do you ask for

Prospects and a shit ton of them.  Get a head start on rebuilding reloading the farm.

[Pimphand 5735]

Another thing to think about...

If the Yankees miss the 2019 World Series it will be the first decade the Yankees didn't qualify for the series since the 1910s.

This club has quite the fiduciary responsibility to the baseball world to deliver the killshot to the evil empire's WS run.

[UTexasFight 9431]

Another thing to think about...
If the Yankees miss the 2019 World Series it will be the first decade the Yankees didn't qualify for the series since the 1910s.
This club has quite the fiduciary responsibility to the baseball world to deliver the killshot to the evil empire's WS run.

It won’t bother me if the Twins beat us to the punch

[Pimphand 5735]

12 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

It won’t bother me if the Twins beat us to the punch

I don't know I kinda want to stomp on them in the ALCS and the Dodgers in the WS and party like it is 2017

[Guadaloopy 10960]

I’d really like to see the Astros win a World Series without the freaking city flooding in the same year. 

But since there’s no way around the flooding at this point, how about another pick me up, fellas?

[UTexasFight 9431]

i've been thinking about this (while trying not to overthink it).

not in the alds, but in the alcs, if we have homefield, i would consider going jv-greinke-cole, and here's why:

greinke at home vs nyy sp2 is still a pitching advantage, and we're at home.  but cole in g3 on the road against the nyy sp3 is a massive advantage in what is always a pivotal game (taking you to 2-1 or possibly 3-0).  then you have jv on the road in g5, and come home with greinke and cole.  that would suck to be on the wrong side of.

greinke has had moments, and obviously has plenty of experience, but rolling him out there in g3 in yankee stadium tied 1-1 doesn't make me super confident.

Yeah, I’ve been thinking about that rotation order for a while. I think there was a short stretch after we got Greinke where it lined up that way but then cole missed that week or so in August and it’s been JV/cole ever since

I like splitting up the power arms with something softer.

 

That being said, this all presupposes we win the ALDS in 4 games or less.

If that series goes 5, it’ll be Cole, Grienke and then JV in the first game in Yankee stadium.

Sorry yankees, you get #1a in game 1 and #1 in Game 3. #bestteaminbaseballproblems

 

For the record, I’d prefer Cole in game 3 in Yankee stadium.

JVs propensity for the long ball scares me more in that park than Cole.

 

 

 

[!!!HOTDOGS!!! 31]

Flip side is if game one is a loss, do you want Grienke out there in game 2? I say don't over-think it. Grienke dominated the Yankees in their stadium the day the Stros got him.

[Iceman 2696]

13 hours ago, Jshep34 said:

Think the tax part sometimes gets overlooked by players/agents. Hope he stays. Side note if you were to trade CC at end of next year what do you ask for

One of the splash guard visors for the celebration.

[David Dennison 18851]

13 hours ago, Limp Brisket said:

Cole isn’t staying.

He's not and that sucks.

He's incredible.

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

15 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Signing Cole will take a very creative, backloaded contract unless Crane is willing to pay lots of luxury tax.

Yeah. Club has already extended Altuve and Bregman. Verlander and Grienke each have 2 more years at high salaries. 

We've got Springer, Brantley, Reddick, Gurriel coming off the books after next season...are we going to extend Springer? Tucker figures to fill one of those OF spots (Reddick's), but what about 1B and the other OF spot? Correa has 2 more seasons - I wouldn't extend him, but he's not eating a lot of payroll right now anyway, so that won't be much extra money to work with. 

I love Cole, but realistically I don't see him staying. He's going to want 6 years /$175 M or something like that, I'd guess. And the club has a few upcoming roster holes to account for. If they can't fill those roles internally - and I don't see many promising/near-ready prospects right now - they're going to have to find veterans that can fill them, who are more expensive.