Jump to content

2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
in Baseball

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 41.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • tx 3 putt

    3624

  • UTexasFight

    2380

  • Scraps

    2293

  • WBT

    1999

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

SEC
SEC

My mom was diagnosed with breast cancer 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow she starts her treatment. She's been a wreck ever since the diagnosis. I mentioned a few pages back how a friend of the family manage

Rustic Horn
Rustic Horn
Mez2
Mez2

Newest Astro fan was born earlier today at 12:09 am Mez3, holla!

Posted Images

UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted
When will start time be announced for game 1 ALDS? After the regular season ends or after the wild card games?

It’s been between the regular season and wild card games the last two years

Looks for something to be announced Monday...but I’ll be quite surprised if it’s not ~3pm if it’s us vs A’s and ~12pm if it’s us vs Rays/Indians

NL WC at Dodgers will be the late game Friday
Twins at Yankees, primetime game
Cards at Braves the other afternoon game opposite us.
If we play the A’s I’m assuming they’ll give us mid-late afternoon Central start time so the game isn’t starting in the AM on the West coast.
Maaaybe we’ll get that same slot even if it’s us vs Rays/Indians but I could see them moving Cards/Braves to mid-late afternoon if Rays or Indians are the AL WC
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6314

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dondrysdale1 said:

Anyone have the Keith law ESPN+ piece?

AL MVP:

Spoiler

It's Trout, again, although we all know there's a good chance the voters will decide to honor somebody else because the Angels missed the playoffs or because they just undervalue Trout since he's been so good for so long now. Bregman had a wonderful season, and if you want to give him the American League Most Valuable Player Not Named Mike Trout award, by all means do so. Note that the standings-related argument doesn't really hold water here, as the Astros would be in first place even if you replaced Bregman with a replacement-level player.

AL CY:

Spoiler

I could see either of the Astros candidates winning this award, and being deserving of it, and there's a strong sabermetric argument in favor of Minor -- although the extent of the adjustments required to make his case makes even me uncomfortable. I gave the nod to Cole because he has a much higher strikeout rate than Verlander and a lower FIP, as Verlander's BABIP of .218 is definitely a function of Houston's defense -- it's the lowest BABIP of Verlander's career, way below his career mark of .281. If you want to vote for Verlander, who did lead the league in innings and has the highest rWAR among AL pitchers, I won't argue.

AL ROY:

Spoiler

Kind of an uninspiring rookie crop in the AL this year, with Vlad Guerrero Jr. having such a disappointing season at the plate and in the field (with a minus-10 UZR in 815 innings, worst of any third baseman in MLB) and his teammate Bo Bichette coming up a bit too late to make the top three. Alvarez is going to win this, probably unanimously, since there really isn't a viable alternative, although my preference in these awards is definitely for players who contribute on both sides of the ball.

I generally like Law. I knew he'd be on Trout as MVP - he pretty much adheres to the data. No real problem there.

But he seems to gloss over just how good Yordan has been (best OPS+ in baseball since his call-up) and instead focuses on him being a DH. If I didn't know better, I'd say Law is downplaying Yordan's season because he didn't have him rated that highly in the preseason. 

Yes, it is an "uninspiring rookie crop" in the AL - except for that one guy who has been historically good, and has surpassed 4 WAR in half a season despite being docked for his defense. You know - he's basically been peak David Ortiz in his age-22 rookie year. I guess that's "uninspiring." 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27700162/keith-law-2019-mvp-cy-young-rookie-year-picks

 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Scraps

Scraps 13561

Posted
Posted

It’s been between the regular season and wild card games the last two years

Looks for something to be announced Monday...but I’ll be quite surprised if it’s not ~3pm if it’s us vs A’s and ~12pm if it’s us vs Rays/Indians

NL WC at Dodgers will be the late game Friday
Twins at Yankees, primetime game
Cards at Braves the other afternoon game opposite us.
If we play the A’s I’m assuming they’ll give us mid-late afternoon Central start time so the game isn’t starting in the AM on the West coast.
Maaaybe we’ll get that same slot even if it’s us vs Rays/Indians but I could see them moving Cards/Braves to mid-late afternoon if Rays or Indians are the AL WC
ATL will have the earliest game regardless who we play.

If not then there are more tards involved than I originally thought
Link to comment
Share on other sites
maninblack

maninblack 7974

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

AL MVP:

  Hide contents

It's Trout, again, although we all know there's a good chance the voters will decide to honor somebody else because the Angels missed the playoffs or because they just undervalue Trout since he's been so good for so long now. Bregman had a wonderful season, and if you want to give him the American League Most Valuable Player Not Named Mike Trout award, by all means do so. Note that the standings-related argument doesn't really hold water here, as the Astros would be in first place even if you replaced Bregman with a replacement-level player.

AL CY:

  Hide contents

I could see either of the Astros candidates winning this award, and being deserving of it, and there's a strong sabermetric argument in favor of Minor -- although the extent of the adjustments required to make his case makes even me uncomfortable. I gave the nod to Cole because he has a much higher strikeout rate than Verlander and a lower FIP, as Verlander's BABIP of .218 is definitely a function of Houston's defense -- it's the lowest BABIP of Verlander's career, way below his career mark of .281. If you want to vote for Verlander, who did lead the league in innings and has the highest rWAR among AL pitchers, I won't argue.

AL ROY:

  Hide contents

Kind of an uninspiring rookie crop in the AL this year, with Vlad Guerrero Jr. having such a disappointing season at the plate and in the field (with a minus-10 UZR in 815 innings, worst of any third baseman in MLB) and his teammate Bo Bichette coming up a bit too late to make the top three. Alvarez is going to win this, probably unanimously, since there really isn't a viable alternative, although my preference in these awards is definitely for players who contribute on both sides of the ball.

I generally like Law. I knew he'd be on Trout as MVP - he pretty much adheres to the data. No real problem there.

But he seems to gloss over just how good Yordan has been (best OPS+ in baseball since his call-up) and instead focuses on him being a DH. If I didn't know better, I'd say Law is downplaying Yordan's season because he didn't have him rated that highly in the preseason. 

Yes, it is an "uninspiring rookie crop" in the AL - except for that one guy who has been historically good, and has surpassed 4 WAR in half a season despite being docked for his defense. You know - he's basically been peak David Ortiz in his age-22 rookie year. I guess that's "uninspiring." 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27700162/keith-law-2019-mvp-cy-young-rookie-year-picks

 

Law is a self important twit. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6314

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

How the fuck is there a strong sabermetric case for Mike Minor over Cole or JV?

It's a good question - he and Lynn have been loved by the advanced metrics all year. 

I assume it has to do with ballpark adjustments (high run environment in Arlington), defensive adjustments (Rangers are a bad defensive team), and some other stuff. And different methods of calculating give very different results. For example - Minor is at 7.6 WAR on B-R and 4.0 on FG.

I don't think anyone will get a 1st or 2nd place vote other than JV and Cole. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6314

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Law is a self important twit. 

Yeah, he is certainly arrogant and condescending, but that's part of his shtick. He's a know-it-all. But I generally like his content on prospects.  

What bugs me is that he is thin-skinned and defensive. The AL ROY writeup above seems passive-aggressive in that he completely sidesteps acknowledging the really impressive accomplishments of the soon-to-be unanimous ROY because he is a guy Law didn't have in his top-100 before the season. 

I get why he wasn't in the top-100...he often states that DH-only type don't generally get included because they have to hit a lot to be valuable, and most prospects won't; I don't disagree with him. But when a guy comes up and is the best hitter in the league for 4 months, he should probably get over it and acknowledge that nobody could have seen this type of performance from Yordan. Instead he makes no mention of Yordan's accomplishments and calls the class "uninspiring." 

Seems petulant. 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13510

Posted
Posted

The Trout fanboys have been pointing to WAR as the main reason to give the MVP award to Trout over Bregman. Bregman has closed that to 8.3 vs 8.2. Sure they can still point to the fact that Trout played fewer games to get it to 8.3 but the fewer games could just as well work against Trout.  

Also while salary shouldn't necessarily be considered, Bregman was paid $640K with Trout at $36.8M.   If you ask any GM who would they have rather had in their lineup this year, assuming everything played out identically, I would guess 29 out of 30 would say Bregman.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

Posted
Posted

agree completely with law trying to justify his own shitty pre-rank.

that all said, why in the world would you punish somebody for playing their position?  would it be better if he was a full time left-fielder in the nl tripping over himself and running into the wall, but mashing at the plate, thus justifying his spot in the lineup, even when he was actively hurting his team defensively? 

like it or not, the american league uses a dh.  they have an entire position devoted to mashing and only mashing.  he didn't fuck up another position and get relegated to pinch-hitting duties.  he was brought up to dh and managed to hit in the heart of arguably the best lineup in the last 75 years.

i understand not considering a full-time dh for mvp against a guy who plays an important position for his team and who excelled defensively.  but this is roy.  the only comparison i can think of is if max scherzer went 25-5 with a 1.99era and 315k and should be mvp, but they gave it to someone else because scherzer hit .085 at the plate.  you know why i don't care?  because that's not his fucking job.

sorry vlad jr let you down, but that's 100% a "you" problem, keith.

and gtfo of here even mentioning mike minor.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

Posted
Posted

also, re: trout, i don't always completely agree with "best guy on the best team" awards, but it should be said that while trout is certainly the most talented/best player on the planet, having one of his best years, most all of his stats were accumulated in low-stakes, low-stress, "who cares" types of situations.  it's not just about helping a great team win games, it's about the environment and the setting where you're forced to excel.

bregman carried his team while every other star missed significant time.  he also switched from a hard position to a harder position, and he's played it with absolute excellence without making a single complaint or excuse when things weren't going swimmingly at the plate.  and who are we to say that a mid-level replacement for bregman would still result in the astros in first place?  the a's have 95 wins which basically puts them 9 wins (~bregman) behind us.  maybe he's the reason we finish with the 1 seed and maybe a g7 at home is what wins us the world series.

if he's the difference between losing in the alcs and winning the world series, i don't know, that seems fairly valuable (considering the regular season sets up the post-season bracket).  also he actually played a game after sept 5.  the best ability is availability, and if you're gonna miss 16% of the season, you better win the triple crown.

in 2017, at the all-star break, they asked whether anyone could catch aaron judge for mvp.  someone jokingly responded, "well, i guess it's possible judge goes 0-for-the 2nd half.  i think we know what happened that year, and it wasn't close.

baseball writers generally suck, but hopefully they haven't counted their chickens.  law said, "bregman had a wonderful season."  shit ain't over yet, keith.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6314

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Trout fanboys have been pointing to WAR as the main reason to give the MVP award to Trout over Bregman. Bregman has closed that to 8.3 vs 8.2. Sure they can still point to the fact that Trout played fewer games to get it to 8.3 but the fewer games could just as well work against Trout.  

Also while salary shouldn't necessarily be considered, Bregman was paid $640K with Trout at $36.8M.   If you ask any GM who would they have rather had in their lineup this year, assuming everything played out identically, I would guess 29 out of 30 would say Bregman.

It will be an interesting vote. 

I think most voters realize that, although WAR is a strong indicator of how good of an all-around season a player has had, it is not a precise metric. You can't argue that there is a meaningful difference between 8.3 WAR and 8.2 WAR (or 8.0). 

I get the argument that Trout produced that value in fewer games, and thus produced more value/game. But participation also counts. I'm just not sure how much voters will factor it in. 

But yeah - does the fact that Trout produced more value on a per-game basis trump the fact that Bregman was just as valuable for the season and participated in almost every game at defensive "skill positions" (especially considering the all-star SS missed most of the year)? I think one could make a compelling case either way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14677

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

AL MVP:

  Reveal hidden contents

It's Trout, again, although we all know there's a good chance the voters will decide to honor somebody else because the Angels missed the playoffs or because they just undervalue Trout since he's been so good for so long now. Bregman had a wonderful season, and if you want to give him the American League Most Valuable Player Not Named Mike Trout award, by all means do so. Note that the standings-related argument doesn't really hold water here, as the Astros would be in first place even if you replaced Bregman with a replacement-level player.

AL CY:

  Reveal hidden contents

I could see either of the Astros candidates winning this award, and being deserving of it, and there's a strong sabermetric argument in favor of Minor -- although the extent of the adjustments required to make his case makes even me uncomfortable. I gave the nod to Cole because he has a much higher strikeout rate than Verlander and a lower FIP, as Verlander's BABIP of .218 is definitely a function of Houston's defense -- it's the lowest BABIP of Verlander's career, way below his career mark of .281. If you want to vote for Verlander, who did lead the league in innings and has the highest rWAR among AL pitchers, I won't argue.

AL ROY:

  Reveal hidden contents

Kind of an uninspiring rookie crop in the AL this year, with Vlad Guerrero Jr. having such a disappointing season at the plate and in the field (with a minus-10 UZR in 815 innings, worst of any third baseman in MLB) and his teammate Bo Bichette coming up a bit too late to make the top three. Alvarez is going to win this, probably unanimously, since there really isn't a viable alternative, although my preference in these awards is definitely for players who contribute on both sides of the ball.

I generally like Law. I knew he'd be on Trout as MVP - he pretty much adheres to the data. No real problem there.

But he seems to gloss over just how good Yordan has been (best OPS+ in baseball since his call-up) and instead focuses on him being a DH. If I didn't know better, I'd say Law is downplaying Yordan's season because he didn't have him rated that highly in the preseason. 

Yes, it is an "uninspiring rookie crop" in the AL - except for that one guy who has been historically good, and has surpassed 4 WAR in half a season despite being docked for his defense. You know - he's basically been peak David Ortiz in his age-22 rookie year. I guess that's "uninspiring." 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27700162/keith-law-2019-mvp-cy-young-rookie-year-picks

 

This isn't an uninspiring rookie crop in the AL. Holy shit what a retarded statement. Yeah, Guerrero struggled a little bit. So what, he is still going to be a fucking star.

As far as the MVP goes, Bregman was the constant star in the Astros order as they dealt with injuries to Altuve, Springer, and Correa. Sure the Astros would have likely won the division with a league average 3B, such as Toro, if you give me full healthy seasons from 2 of the 3 above. Not too mention, the Angels are still a shitty team without Trout.

Edited by HtownHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8065

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

While the debate is interesting, Trout will win it in a runaway. The latest MLB.com poll had him getting 36/37 1st place votes. Btw JV got 24 votes to Cole’s 11 for ALCY.

Reggie Bush never really comes to mind, but for a fleeting moment now he does.

When is the AL MVP award announced? I just want to know when to expect Bregs to have a 12-RBI playoff game.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted

Yeah votes are due within a few days after the end of the season...maybe even before the WC game Tuesday...but they don’t announce until early to mid November to keep MLB in the news cycle for as long as possible.

And in the meantime someone goes off in the playoffs (Bregman!) but finishes short in one of the award categories and the mouth breathers (whatever that FB group is y’all were talking about) scream bloody murder that their guy didn’t win the (regular season) award...”look what he did in the playoffs!!! Meanwhile, Trout was jerking off on his couch at home!”


facepalm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...