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2019 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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WBT

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McHugh was a top 30ish starter in baseball from 2014-2016 and I think he can still be a good number 3 but it's been ugly lately.  

His strikeout and walk numbers aren't too far out of his career range as a starter but he's allowing about 2 HRs/9 and 21.4% of fly balls are going for HRs.  Both are about double his career rates.  How much of that is bad luck, the juiced ball, bad locations, tipping pitches, etc?  He needs to get that under control quickly to stay in the rotation.

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Scraps

Scraps 13577

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I don't buy the "Altuve is just trying to hit homers" thing.  Like he said earlier this season when he got up to 7 or so "that ain't me".  He is just swinging at a lot of dumb shit, and then not putting good contact on the good shit. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6321

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12 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Altuve has always swung at stuff out of the zone though.  That part isn't concerning by itself, but he is missing or not making good contact a lot more often now

Right - the contact rate (in and out of the zone) is way down. 

Maybe he's not trying to hit HR, but the data tell us his strikeouts are up, his fly balls are up, his HR are up. And he's had ABs this year where it looks like he's swinging out of his shoes. 

Something is different. Maybe the injury messed with his mechanics just enough that he's all out of whack. 

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Jshep34

Jshep34 2321

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Mike Fiers over here throwing no hitters while McHugh over here throwing meatballs
Very happy for him. He has stayed in touch with lilshep and another kid since leaving. Dude is a really nice great guy. Happy to see him succeed.



Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8502

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27 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

If anyone subscribes to The Athletic, please post this. Thanks.

Had problems trying to spoiler it on my phone. Sent it to you in DM. Feel free to spoiler it here for others. I'd also recommend the Athletic to anyone. It's good stuff.

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Limp Brisket

Limp Brisket 546

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6 minutes ago, IDIOTsavant said:

Had problems trying to spoiler it on my phone. Sent it to you in DM. Feel free to spoiler it here for others. I'd also recommend the Athletic to anyone. It's good stuff.

I loved The Athletic as far as content when they posted it, they just seemed slow to do it.  I’m probably impatient.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9528

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And here’s the full article

Basically feedback from all the major prospect ranking sources, some of whom don’t have him very high as they don’t believe he will amount to anything with the glove

A month into the minor league season, no Astros prospect has commanded more attention than Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez has loudly stated his case for a promotion to the majors with a preposterous .390/.484/.867 line through 29 games with Triple-A Round Rock.

Any discussion about Triple-A statistics this season comes with the caveat of the staggeringly high run-scoring environment at the level that coincides with the switch to the major league balls. But delve deeper into Alvarez’s numbers and here’s what you’ll find:

— Alvarez has considerably more extra-base hits (24) than singles (17) through 124 plate appearances.

— He has as many games with three or more hits (seven) as games with multiple strikeouts.

— A left-handed hitter, he’s sent eight of his 13 home runs to the opposite field.

(Chart courtesy of Baseball Savant.)

That the 21-year-old Alvarez has compiled these numbers as one of the youngest players in the Pacific Coast League only adds to the intrigue.

But because of major questions concerning his defense, opinions of Alvarez’s potential oscillate much more than they do for Houston’s other top prospects, pitchers Forrest Whitley and Corbin Martin and outfielder Kyle Tucker. Astros officials have been giddy about the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Cuban slugger since they first got him into their complex in the Dominican Republic in August 2016. But around the industry, he’s not even a consensus Top 100 prospect.

“It’s true that there are some defensive issues there. But if he can be even remotely adequate with the glove, which seems possible to me, I think there’s enough upside in the bat that the defense is just not going to be that much of an issue,” said John Sickels, prospects expert for The Athletic.

“He’s got the raw power that everybody likes, but unlike a lot of these young hitters he controls the strike zone well and he hits to all fields. I think that gives him a good chance to hit for average and a high on-base percentage to go with the power. And I think with a guy like that, they’ll find a spot for him eventually, even if it’s not in Houston. Just because I think there’s an impact bat there.”

Sickels is among the prospect analysts who regards Alvarez the highest. He ranked him 37th on his preseason Top 100 and 35th in an updated list that was published a couple weeks ago.

But survey the public prospect analysis landscape as a whole and you’ll find a ton of variance as it pertains to Alvarez’s ranking.

Baseball America: 34th (both before the season and on an updated list)
MLB Pipeline: 40th (42nd before the season)
ESPN.com: Unranked among Top 100
FanGraphs: 125th
Baseball Prospectus: 49th

The Athletic reached out to evaluators from the various outlets to ask their rationales for their respective ranking of Alvarez. Here’s a sampling of their responses:

J.J. Cooper, Executive editor of Baseball America (34th): “Because hitting is very important. There are obviously questions about how much defensive value Yordan Alvarez is going to have. But, to me, there are two things that have always stood out whenever he’s been healthy. And that’s been a concern also; he has been dinged up a good bit. But when he’s healthy, he has good plate discipline and he hits the ball really hard. Those are two attributes that serve you very well in the game in 2019.

“And he’s always done that as a young player for whatever level he’s at. Our expectation is that Alvarez is going to be a middle-of-the-order-type bat with some of the better exit velos in the game one day. And doing that while hitting for a decent average, but more importantly getting on base, because he does have a solid batting eye. He does seem to have an understanding of he’s not just this pure slugger, he does have some hitting ability to go with the power. That’s just a pretty special combo.”

Jim Callis, Senior writer for MLB Pipeline (42nd preseason, 40th now): “I think the variance with him is because he’s an all-bat guy, and those guys are a little tougher. If Yordan Alvarez doesn’t hit then he’s not really of much value at all. It’s not like he’s an up-the-middle guy who’s playing good defense at short, so if you’re lighter on his bat there’s still value there. I do think the all-bat guys are a little tougher to rank.

“I know going into last year, I kind of wanted to see Alvarez do it again after his first pro season. So I felt like I kind of dragged him down a little bit. But the guy’s hit everywhere he’s been, and while that’s not a 100-percent guarantee to continue at the major league level, his track record’s pretty good. He’s been young for his age at each level.

“What I like about him is for a guy who has power, he doesn’t strike out a lot. There are guys who have really impressive power potential, but you know they’re going to swing and miss and you wonder if he’s going to get to it. And with Yordan, I think you could kind of debate back and forth whether you think it’s hit over power or power over hit because they’re both pretty good.”

Eric Longenhagen, Lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs (125th): “We have him in a category of player that is essentially first base/DH only. The way we try to look at it is, ‘How much from a WAR standpoint is each player likely to produce during their first six years of big league service time?’ So, between his defensive limitations and the body, the way that might age during that six-year stretch, we tended to round him down.

“Pete Alonso (at No. 48) is the top of that group, basically, the top of that type of player. Alvarez and Alonso are in the same future value tier, and so there’s a variability of how you want to line those guys up. We think there’s room to argue how all the guys in that tier should line up. But we just found ourselves sliding Alvarez toward the back of that group throughout our ranking process behind guys who play up the middle, behind guys who we have less concern about long-term sustainability, better athletes, guys with better bodies. He just found himself toward the back of that group, closer to where Josh Naylor (at No. 124) is rather than someone like Cole Tucker (at No. 83).

“The early season, I know it’s the PCL and I know that the baseball is different. The number of home runs hit at this time last year in Triple A compared to the number of home runs so far this year, it’s staggering. So, there’s that.

“The interesting thing with Alvarez is if the DH is instituted in the National League, then the market for this type of player, his trade value, all sorts of components of prospect ranking probably change pretty significantly for this guy because now there are all of a sudden 15 more roster spots for a player like this.”

Jarrett Seidler, Senior prospect writer for Baseball Prospectus (49th): “Our main Texas League evaluator, Kevin Carter, really liked his bat profile. He thought he was a plus-hit, plus-power guy who had a chance to be more than a plus-power guy, which may be playing out if you believe the early season PCL numbers. Although that’s a little shaky given the ball situation out there and all that kind of stuff.

“But (Carter thought) that he was a plus-hit, plus-power guy, probably a first baseman, probably not going to stick in the outfield. Kevin also thought he was sneaky athletic a little bit. Because he’s a real big guy. He’s like 6-5, 230, 235. But he’s got some athleticism to him. He’s not like a real lumbering, real stiff first base profile.”

Alvarez isn’t slow and doesn’t lack for athleticism relative to many bat-first, first base/DH types. Making reads off the bat and taking optimal routes to the ball are the challenges he faces in left field.

Any projection of Alvarez’s future value will take a hit by an evaluator who doesn’t believe he can stick in left. The Astros actually believe he has a better chance to succeed there than at first base, where he has much less experience. It doesn’t hurt his odds that they play at a ballpark with less ground to cover in left. Alvarez’s exposure to first base has increased in recent weeks, though, as his performance has commanded more attention.

If Alvarez can prove to be competent at either position, it would make for a more seamless fit in Houston’s lineup. Because Astros manager A.J. Hinch has committed to spreading around the DH starts to regulars like George Springer and Michael Brantley, Alvarez cannot default to a DH-only role upon his arrival in the majors.

Durability has been a concern, as Cooper of Baseball America mentioned. Alvarez missed time each the last two seasons for various aches and pains in his wrist and knees. It took him time to adjust to the physical grind of the minor leagues, in which the days are much more rigorous than in Cuba’s professional league. He arrived to spring training this year in better shape and moving noticeably better than before.

Alvarez didn’t hit a single home run in spring training, where he participated in his first major league camp. Since the Triple-A season began, he hasn’t stopped hitting them. If it weren’t for a lack of roster flexibility on their bench, the Astros might’ve already summoned him to the majors. Even so, it’s only a matter of time.

And once Alvarez debuts, his prospect profile will make him one of the more interesting young players to evaluate.

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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this brantley move is looking pretty ok.  

also, re: yordan - i didn't read the whole article, but if people are picking on his defense, what's wrong with him being a dh?  i mean, we're an al team with a gaping fucking hole at dh.  i'm really not seeing him as "polarizing" because he can't play first.  dude is hitting .390, i don't care if he doesn't own a glove.

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kevwun

kevwun 15912

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

this brantley move is looking pretty ok.  

also, re: yordan - i didn't read the whole article, but if people are picking on his defense, what's wrong with him being a dh?  i mean, we're an al team with a gaping fucking hole at dh.  i'm really not seeing him as "polarizing" because he can't play first.  dude is hitting .390, i don't care if he doesn't own a glove.

That's the main reason.  A few of them mentioned him getting nicked up a few times in the minors.  If he doesn't hit well, big deal, they'll move on.  The Astros need a dh, so it's a silly concern.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9528

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this brantley move is looking pretty ok.  
also, re: yordan - i didn't read the whole article, but if people are picking on his defense, what's wrong with him being a dh?  i mean, we're an al team with a gaping fucking hole at dh.  i'm really not seeing him as "polarizing" because he can't play first.  dude is hitting .390, i don't care if he doesn't own a glove.

Yeah it seems to be much ado about nothing.
Sure some publications won’t have him as high on their rankings because he’s not a 4 or 5 tool player.
Who really cares when our franchise has a gaping hole at the one tool he’s been better at than any other minor leaguer so far this year.


...and no way he can be any worse in left than what I just witnessed
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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Just now, kevwun said:

That's the main reason.  A few of them mentioned him getting nicked up a few times in the minors.  If he doesn't hit well, big deal, they'll move on.  The Astros need a dh, so it's a silly concern.

yeah that's stupid.  if he got drafted by an nl team, i would understand the criticism.  but a dh is 1/9th of our batting order, and should be a top 3-4 hitter on an al team.  the fact that we've never made it a priority is actually kinda troubling.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9528

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Posted
All the talk about Alvarez but I think Corbin Martin needs to be brought up.  Send McHugh to the pen (who did great last night for an inning or two), as a reliever.  Martin is looking great in Round Rock.  

Yep
If everyone keeps staying healthy this is the move we’ll likely see first
But at some point you gotta think an IL stint by somebody will force the hand.
Incredible we’re 23% of the way through the season with no one going to IL (no jinx)
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