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Things seem to be going quite well for Joe Biden

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Herpa Derpa

Herpa Derpa 6126

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The more I look at this election,  the more I see the election of 1840:  the opposition ran an old candidate who most people remembered fondly against an absolutely loathed incumbent president whose party had bungled basic governance.

Winning party also took the House and Senate in that election.

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Somebody should write a song about the privileged fortunes of being a senator's son because this is a totally new phenomenon.  Somebody with musical talent, because it ain't me.  

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As you continue to ponder hypocrisy, please also refuse to address the following: T-Mobile spending over $195,000 at Trump Hotel while it lobbied for approval of its merger with Sprint, despite

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45685

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The more I look at this election,  the more I see the election of 1840:  the opposition ran an old candidate who most people remembered fondly against an absolutely loathed incumbent president whose party had bungled basic governance.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45685

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32 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think there might be a few votes that could be flipped either way but less than 5%. It’s all turnout. I can’t see how Trump wins. 

Are you assuming a free and fair election?  I don't think that will be the case.

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A-Tex Devil

A-Tex Devil 2446

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11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

How calcified do you think party ID and trump is?  I know there are at least 40% of the voters that would pull the lever for trump if he shot someone on 5th Avenue but is it 40% or 45%?  Similarly, I know Joe could literally drool on himself in a debate and get at least 40%. Is the number 10% in play?  5%?  Anyone willing to switch over or is it just turn out?  

Thats what I’m curious about bc I generally agree with the point that nobody will give a shit about the debate. 

I am not sure Trump will do a debate when all is said and done.  He'll run his Roy Cohn game plan and reject every format networks/Biden's team offers then suggest something ridiculous like he gets to pick all the questions, then blame Biden for being unreasonable.  

And it's all about turnout.  If we are arguing undecideds that will definitely vote, but don't know for whom, I think, but more hope, that people are more likely to switch from Trump/unsure to Biden than vice versa as there isn't, in my opinion, a strong detestation of Biden on the right (after all, he's an old, white man).  I could be wrong.  There isn't an "anyone but Biden" sentiment where a significant number of people are going to vote for Trump but might have voted for another Dem. 

People that are looking for a reason not to vote for Trump probably aren't/weren't going to vote for him.  But maybe Trump can do more in his shitty CV-19 effort to cause people to see the light.  Biden can espouse a positive message while still being critical where appropriate and let the Lincoln Project do the dirty work.  In any event, this group of people are probably de minimis.  

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

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36 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I am not sure Trump will do a debate when all is said and done.  He'll run his Roy Cohn game plan and reject every format networks/Biden's team offers then suggest something ridiculous like he gets to pick all the questions, then blame Biden for being unreasonable.  

And it's all about turnout.  If we are arguing undecideds that will definitely vote, but don't know for whom, I think, but more hope, that people are more likely to switch from Trump/unsure to Biden than vice versa as there isn't, in my opinion, a strong detestation of Biden on the right (after all, he's an old, white man).  I could be wrong.  There isn't an "anyone but Biden" sentiment where a significant number of people are going to vote for Trump but might have voted for another Dem. 

People that are looking for a reason not to vote for Trump probably aren't/weren't going to vote for him.  But maybe Trump can do more in his shitty CV-19 effort to cause people to see the light.  Biden can espouse a positive message while still being critical where appropriate and let the Lincoln Project do the dirty work.  In any event, this group of people are probably de minimis.  

I tend to agree.  If there was a swing voter, I think it mostly existed during the democratic primary while the Market was still high.  College educated suburban men who don't like trump, but kept marvelling at their 401k and sweating a possible Sanders presidency ("I hate trump, but I'll be goddamn if I'm going to vote for a socialist").  I tend to think Biden largely allays those concerns.  It's mostly just a question of how voting will go down during the fall COVID re-emergence.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Well shit, there's goes the b_t signal.

Whenever you say there are no undecideds, or nobody has a visceral dislike of Biden it's not literally zero out of 330 million, it's just not a big enough number to be significant driver.  Yeah, B_T s nuts.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Are you assuming a free and fair election?  I don't think that will be the case.

Yes. I think all the talk, both ways, about a non free and fair election are completely overblown. I don't believe we live in a banana republic.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45685

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes. I think all the talk, both ways, about a non free and fair election are completely overblown. I don't believe we live in a banana republic.

Well I hope you're right, because all evidence is pointing the other direction.  Look at Georgia for fuck's sake.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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45 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I am not sure Trump will do a debate when all is said and done.  He'll run his Roy Cohn game plan and reject every format networks/Biden's team offers then suggest something ridiculous like he gets to pick all the questions, then blame Biden for being unreasonable.  

And it's all about turnout.  If we are arguing undecideds that will definitely vote, but don't know for whom, I think, but more hope, that people are more likely to switch from Trump/unsure to Biden than vice versa as there isn't, in my opinion, a strong detestation of Biden on the right (after all, he's an old, white man).  I could be wrong.  There isn't an "anyone but Biden" sentiment where a significant number of people are going to vote for Trump but might have voted for another Dem. 

People that are looking for a reason not to vote for Trump probably aren't/weren't going to vote for him.  But maybe Trump can do more in his shitty CV-19 effort to cause people to see the light.  Biden can espouse a positive message while still being critical where appropriate and let the Lincoln Project do the dirty work.  In any event, this group of people are probably de minimis.  

Yeah, I think we see things the same way. I think there is some level of senility Biden could shown in the debates that could swing some people over from him to Trump, but I think it's more likely they just stay home rather than vote for someone they think is senile (this is all a big if- he comes out worst case scenario- and looks like hammered dog shit). He's got a low bar to clear in the debates in my opinion. Just show up and don't look crazy and don't drool on yourself and form mostly coherent sentences. If he does that I can't imagine anyone that's unsure about Trump voting for him over Biden, and I think those that could be persuaded by a seriously ugly debate by Biden are very very small.  That's what I'm curious about other people's opinion on how many votes are persuadable right now. I think it's greater than zero but not a whole hell of a lot greater than zero. 3%? 5%?  There aren't many undecideds. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

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It's true that people don't hate Joe, but they also don't love him. So if turnout is the key (which it will be, I think) then we've got a huge problem on our hands. While people hate Donald, they also love him.

The thing that bodes super well for Joe right now in polling is, in my mind, the massive shift in old people's preference. They vote and they don't even have to be enthusiastic to do so.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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Just now, bad_teammate said:

It's true that people don't hate Joe, but they also don't love him. So if turnout is the key (which it will be, I think) then we've got a huge problem on our hands. While people hate Donald, they also love him.

The thing that bodes super well for Joe right now in polling is, in my mind, the massive shift in old people's preference. They vote and they don't even have to be enthusiastic to do so.

Hatred for Trump will bring them out just as surely as love for Joe. Have the Dems ever had a better midterm turnout than 2018?  I don't think anyone was voting for anything in particular in that election beyond Fuck the Trumpsters and the GOP. The people will show up at the polls in November to vote against Trump, regardless of whose on the ballot. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20939

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8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It's true that people don't hate Joe, but they also don't love him. So if turnout is the key (which it will be, I think) then we've got a huge problem on our hands. While people hate Donald, they also love him.

Obviously hard to gauge what turnout will be, but the only reason Trump even had a chance at winning the GE in 2016 was the anti-Hillary vote. I think a lot of people nodded their heads when Trump said "What do you have to lose?". 

Now they know. I think people will be proactive when it comes to rejecting Trumpism in 2020. 

 

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'stache

'stache 21815

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Posted
46 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It's true that people don't hate Joe, but they also don't love him. So if turnout is the key (which it will be, I think) then we've got a huge problem on our hands. While people hate Donald, they also love him.

The thing that bodes super well for Joe right now in polling is, in my mind, the massive shift in old people's preference. They vote and they don't even have to be enthusiastic to do so.

 A lot of people love Joe, mostly because he was Obama's VP and Obama is still immensely popular. Bernie lovers don't love Joe. Stop pretending that your feelings are the popular feeling. Joe won the primaries, by a lot. People like him, some love him, a few hate him. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

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4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

 A lot of people love Joe, mostly because he was Obama's VP and Obama is still immensely popular. Bernie lovers don't love Joe. Stop pretending that your feelings are the popular feeling. Joe won the primaries, by a lot. People like him, some love him, a few hate him. 

March 28: Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.

April 29: Joe Biden Has An Enthusiasm Problem

A new poll from Emerson University released Tuesday found that while Biden leads Trump by 6 points, only 45% of Joe Biden’s supporters said they’re extremely or very excited to vote for him, while 55% said they’re only mildly or not that excited, a –10 point deficit.

Trump, meanwhile, enjoys much more excitement from his base, with 64% saying they’re extremely or very excited, compared to just 37% saying they’re mildly or not that excited.

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'stache

'stache 21815

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7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

March 28: Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.

April 29: Joe Biden Has An Enthusiasm Problem

A new poll from Emerson University released Tuesday found that while Biden leads Trump by 6 points, only 45% of Joe Biden’s supporters said they’re extremely or very excited to vote for him, while 55% said they’re only mildly or not that excited, a –10 point deficit.

Trump, meanwhile, enjoys much more excitement from his base, with 64% saying they’re extremely or very excited, compared to just 37% saying they’re mildly or not that excited.

Trump is a fucking cult, of course they love the shit out of him. What a dumbfuck comparison. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20939

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24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

March 28: Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.

April 29: Joe Biden Has An Enthusiasm Problem

A new poll from Emerson University released Tuesday found that while Biden leads Trump by 6 points, only 45% of Joe Biden’s supporters said they’re extremely or very excited to vote for him, while 55% said they’re only mildly or not that excited, a –10 point deficit.

Trump, meanwhile, enjoys much more excitement from his base, with 64% saying they’re extremely or very excited, compared to just 37% saying they’re mildly or not that excited.

Wait, so Biden's enthusiastic support has jumped from 24% in late March to 45% in late April? Seems like a positive trajectory to me. 

Makes sense that his enthusiasm lagged in March when 60-70% of D voters originally preferred another candidate, but now that the race is over he's seeing a significant increase. 

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

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Posted

Bovada has Joe Biden at -700 for the democratic candidacy.  +130 to win the election.

Trump is -3000 as Republican candidate and -120 to win. 

What am I missing on the -700 for Biden?  Shouldn't that be closer to Trump's line? Is it the age + covid possibility? Or lingering effects of Tara Reade?

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29191

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5 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Bovada has Joe Biden at -700 for the democratic candidacy.  +130 to win the election.

Trump is -3000 as Republican candidate and -120 to win. 

What am I missing on the -700 for Biden?  Shouldn't that be closer to Trump's line? Is it the age + covid possibility? Or lingering effects of Tara Reade?

betting is going to look like that until it's absolutely 100% official that biden is the nominee.  he could get sick, he could drop out, he could get hit by a bus - who knows.  but everyone knows trump will run from a straightjacket in a mental ward with a 105 temperature.  obviously certain things could happen to trump as well, but there's a ~ better chance of something happening to biden, i guess, in the eyes of voters (or at least in effort to get voters to throw money at something 6 months in advance).  on sites i've seen, there are still longshot votes for cuomo, hillary, michelle, and oprah.  just the way those sites work.

on predictit, trump is $0.50 and biden is $0.44, so that sounds like trump is leading by the odds.  but if you look at other pricings, gop winning the presidency is $0.50, and dems winning is $0.53, so that tells me the wildcard longshots are still getting some action, based i guess on some sort of convention shenanigans.  once july comes and goes, we'll get a better sense of the odds.

as for the -700, it feels like that's low enough to entice some action.  -3000 isn't.  remember, futures betting isn't the same as real time betting.

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Onboard 2.0

Onboard 2.0 9083

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9 hours ago, tantric superman said:

We already know who will be the most vile.

Can't argue that point.  Joe doesn't even remember what the definition of vile is any more however.  

He's getting worse by the month it seems. His gaffes during the Covid pandemic have been sadly funny.  I know I know ......... "nuuuu -uhhhh you insect"....

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

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Joe's got a podcast - I forget what it's called.  He gets like minded folks on so they can backslap each other, but you still get the sense that if he were elected he'd have staff meetings with literate participants who engaged in normal conversations about actual issues. 

If he loses half his brainpower every few months, I figure by around 2026 or so he'd be getting into Trump mental territory.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

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25 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Can't argue that point.  Joe doesn't even remember what the definition of vile is any more however.  

He's getting worse by the month it seems. His gaffes during the Covid pandemic have been sadly funny.  I know I know ......... "nuuuu -uhhhh you insect"....

God forbid, he might tell the people of Virginia that the governor is trying to take away their potatoes.

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Lurch

Lurch 5930

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You poor thing, you’re trying so hard at this for no reason.

 

To be fair, he’s found several suckers that don’t yet have him on ignore and are willing to quote him, much to the chagrin of the rest of us.

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'stache

'stache 21815

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46 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Joe's got a podcast - I forget what it's called.  He gets like minded folks on so they can backslap each other, but you still get the sense that if he were elected he'd have staff meetings with literate participants who engaged in normal conversations about actual issues. 

If he loses half his brainpower every few months, I figure by around 2026 or so he'd be getting into Trump mental territory.

Joe will have smart regular people to do the heavy lifting if he gets to that territory. I sincerely think that if he would consider letting his VP take the nomination in 2024 if he ages that much in the first few years of his term. Either way, he will never, ever be in trump territory. Trump is stupid, senile, but started from a position of being a complete piece of shit human being. Senility just made it worse. Joe's senility would be handled properly and would not be an embarrassment to the rest of the world. He won't rage tweet from the shitter like a beta teenager 3/4 of his days and that alone is a needed change.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Joe's senility would be handled properly and would not be an embarrassment to the rest of the world. He won't rage tweet from the shitter like a beta teenager 3/4 of his days and that alone is a needed change.

He'll be insulated from having to directly deal with ungrateful plebians, which is the thing that triggers him the most, so this is likely true.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25957

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Posted
4 hours ago, 'stache said:

Joe will have smart regular people to do the heavy lifting if he gets to that territory. I sincerely think that if he would consider letting his VP take the nomination in 2024 if he ages that much in the first few years of his term. Either way, he will never, ever be in trump territory. Trump is stupid, senile, but started from a position of being a complete piece of shit human being. Senility just made it worse. Joe's senility would be handled properly and would not be an embarrassment to the rest of the world. He won't rage tweet from the shitter like a beta teenager 3/4 of his days and that alone is a needed change.

yep.

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14920

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Posted
betting is going to look like that until it's absolutely 100% official that biden is the nominee.  he could get sick, he could drop out, he could get hit by a bus - who knows.  but everyone knows trump will run from a straightjacket in a mental ward with a 105 temperature.  obviously certain things could happen to trump as well, but there's a ~ better chance of something happening to biden, i guess, in the eyes of voters (or at least in effort to get voters to throw money at something 6 months in advance).  on sites i've seen, there are still longshot votes for cuomo, hillary, michelle, and oprah.  just the way those sites work.
on predictit, trump is $0.50 and biden is $0.44, so that sounds like trump is leading by the odds.  but if you look at other pricings, gop winning the presidency is $0.50, and dems winning is $0.53, so that tells me the wildcard longshots are still getting some action, based i guess on some sort of convention shenanigans.  once july comes and goes, we'll get a better sense of the odds.
as for the -700, it feels like that's low enough to entice some action.  -3000 isn't.  remember, futures betting isn't the same as real time betting.


Is it possible that someone who has merely suspended their campaign could re-enter the race? Bloomberg?
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

New reporting. More changes to her story.

I read the article and she isn't interviewed or quoted in the entire story. What changes are you talking about?

This story is quoting a bunch of other people saying various things about her, highlighting inconsistencies in things she's said to people over the years. Nothing at all new.

Also, the article has this...

But victims of domestic and sexual violence do not always tell consistent stories about their abusers and their experiences. It is also not uncommon for victims to not discuss their abuses even with close family or friends. Sometimes they have even praised the individual that they later accuse of assault, as Reade has with Biden.

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Grandioso

Grandioso 2592

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Posted

This seems relevant.

Quote

Derkach, a former member of the pro-Russia Party of Regions, has pushed for a corruption case against the Bidens. He and Rudy Giuliani, President Trump’s personal attorney, met in Kiev in December.

No collusion!

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