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Things seem to be going quite well for Joe Biden

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

he's far from a perfect candidate.  he's slowed down quite a bit.  but this is what empathy looks like.

have we ever seen a true emotional, empathetic moment from president fuckface?  in the last 3 years as president?  in the 35 years he's been a celebrity?

nope.  we chose a guy who's smiling like an 8-year-old with a baby whose parents just died in a mass shooting.

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Alright T-tom. I am going to address this post because I am the best one for the job. I will address it number by number. 1) I am assuming that marginalized group you are talking about is us, Bla

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Chooky

Somebody should write a song about the privileged fortunes of being a senator's son because this is a totally new phenomenon.  Somebody with musical talent, because it ain't me.  

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As you continue to ponder hypocrisy, please also refuse to address the following: T-Mobile spending over $195,000 at Trump Hotel while it lobbied for approval of its merger with Sprint, despite

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Hornius Emeritus

Hornius Emeritus 12415

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This Coronavirus might be the best thing that ever happened to Joe Biden, assuming he doesn't get it.   He doesn't have to travel, has a reason for campaigning from home, won't get tired, doesn't have to have any public moments (other than carefully chosen ones) after 2:00 p.m. or so PLUS he can watch Trump melt down while throwing shade in the form of pithy one-liners and tweets that get vetted before going out to the public.  And the longer the country is focused on the Coronavirus the less time the Republicans will have to go witch hunting against Hunter Biden, Ukraine etc... Not only that, but any such forays will seem unseemly when, you know, hundreds of people are dying each day. 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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I don't think Biden hired her as recompense for getting Time's Up to decline to offer Biden's accuser protection. I think it's a fucked up, tiny, incestuous world of power that Biden is all tied up in like the rest of the jackals.

And I'm tired of these people running the country.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11769

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

A small, incestuous world.

 

Hang him.

Has to be guilty. There’s no other explanation.

what a shit take. Hey BZ Douglas.... maybe you should be more BZ doing real journalism and Doug up las crap.

Oh and the jerk store called....

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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I think we can all agree it was a mistake for the Centrists/NeverTrumperRepubs/Estab to prop up Biden as the Dem Nominee. It is starting to Reek of "It's My Turn" and all its rot.

I get the sense the money men don't care if Trump is reelected. As long as it is not Bernie, they are content to continue this American Nightmare. 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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11 minutes ago, FWD said:

 

https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/01/news/economy/hillary-clinton-win-forecast-moodys-analytics/index.html

Quote

A model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980 is forecasting a big victory for Hillary Clinton.

Clinton is expected to get 332 electoral votes, while Trump is predicted to get just 206, according to the Moody's Analytics model, which is based on three economic and three political factors.

Cannot get cocky in 2020. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Which is precisely why Bernie supporters need to fall in line.

This is like putting a gun to your own head and telling others it's their fault if you pull the trigger.

It will be Joe's job to win over voters. Voters the establishment has been flipping off for 5 years.

Good luck to him.

Edited by bad_teammate
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Hornius Emeritus

Hornius Emeritus 12415

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15 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

This is like putting a gun to your own head and telling others it's their fault if you pull the trigger.

It will be Joe's job to win over voters. Voters the establishment has been flipping off for 5 years.

Good luck to him.


It's EXACTLY like that, except that a bad choice in the first instance results in your death and a bad choice in the second results in four more years of Trump.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

This is like putting a gun to your own head and telling others it's their fault if you pull the trigger.

It will be Joe's job to win over voters. Voters the establishment has been flipping off for 5 years.

Good luck to him.

90% will be just fine.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

Sounds like you guys have nothing to worry about and it's all going to work out fine.

The capital class will continue to dictate Democratic policy and staffing. The suburban professional class will continue to be their target audience. No need to appease the snowflake losers in the Sunrise Movement and Make the Road or the like. Goldman-Sachs runs fiscal policy but we get some more cool identities to be the face of it.

Business as usual, baby. Keep it truckin'.

:)

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted
2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

saying over and over that joe will have to win those votes sounds like laying the groundwork for some excuses. 

Are you talking to me or to David Dennison, the person who brought the necessity of Bernie voters up?

There is little/no risk of Bernie primary voters going to Trump. 8-12% of Bernie primary voters went to Trump and I see zero evidence of any kind that this will change. (This is the "90%" you keep referring to in a misleading way, another unfortunate use of dishonesty.)

What might change, however, is third party voting and non-voting.

I realize that trolling the left is your sole internal motivator, but others are (rightly) recognizing the need to turn out voters in order to win. I think this is mature and smart on their part.

25 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is this a credible accusation?  I got lost in all the b_t VS henry machinations.  Is there reason to believe Biden did this?

A woman says he did it and she told two other people at the time it happened. Biden's campaign denies it. It's a he said/she said, of course, as these things almost always are.

Joe Biden has a history of lying, inappropriately touching women, and expressing disdain (even violent disdain) for people who displease him who are below him. He has some extremely powerful motivations to lie about it if it did happen, what with seeking the presidency and wanting to maintain a legacy.

This woman has expressed positive views of Vladimir Putin and some of Joe's political rivals. The motivations on her part are a lot less clear, especially since there is no obvious benefit (quite the opposite, in fact), and her preferred candidate has essentially already lost.

I'm a big fan of killing your idols, so I'm always happy to chuck powerful men under the nearest available bus and err on the side of believing women in these cases. (I liked Franken a lot, but was perfectly fine with him being cast aside during #MeToo. We have no shortage of white men in power.)

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

Vox
Newsweek
HuffPo

Lots of stuff there.

I think "deep state left wing media" is kind of a low-brow attempt to dismiss all media criticism as nothing but Trumpism and especially crass in light of the subject matter. Mass media outlets that rely on access journalism do not work hard to expose powerful men. Endless effort was exerted to protect Harvey Weinstein, for instance, including members of the Clinton circle of power pressuring Rowan Farrow into dropping it.

-----------------------------------------------
In the interview, Farrow stated that the turn in his relationship with Clinton was affected by his investigation into Weinstein's sexual misconduct allegations. Weinstein was reported to be a Democratic supporter and donor of Clinton.

"It's remarkable how quickly even people with a long relationship with you will turn if you threaten the centres of power or the sources of funding around them," Farrow said. "Ultimately, there are a lot of people out there who operate in that way. They're beholden to powerful interests and if you go up against those interests, you become radioactive very quickly."
-----------------------------------------------

Is that what's happening here? Who knows. But if that's a level of involvement that a movie producer garners, then one can only imagine the pressure when discussing the presumptive Democratic nominee, a man who the capital class sees as their savior from the horrors of an insurgent socialist left.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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14 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Are you talking to me or to David Dennison, the person who brought the necessity of Bernie voters up?

There is little/no risk of Bernie primary voters going to Trump. 8-12% of Bernie primary voters went to Trump and I see zero evidence of any kind that this will change. (This is the "90%" you keep referring to in a misleading way, another unfortunate use of dishonesty.)

a constant discussion over the past few months has been about whether bernie voters will vote for whomever wins the democratic nomination.  based on comments and anecdotal evidence, some around here are concerned that the hardcore "bros" will either sit out or vote the other way out of protest for allowing a lesser candidate to win the nomination.  you have shown us what happened in 2008 and 2016, which showed bernie people to be less likely to go to trump (16) than hillary people to go to mccain (08).

after michigan, there was a tweet with some exit polling, that said 19% of bernie voters said they would not automatically vote for the dem nominee.  some of us went back and forth on this, and you said that biden has to go earn those votes.  and i asked if biden did everything in his power, then would that number go down from 19% to 0%.  you said obviously 0% is impossible, but it would likely be around 10%, as is the typical average (i don't remember your exact wording).

that's where the 90% came from.  after assuring us that establishment voters are more likely to switch over than the progressive left, now you seem to keep repeating that joe needs to earn these votes, or risk not getting them.  so which is it?  either he'll get the 90%, because of 2016 and 2008, or he needs to work hard to earn the bernie votes, or the number could be lower than 90%.

you're arguing both sides of this, but somehow calling me dishonest.  ok.

24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I realize that trolling the left is your sole internal motivator, but others are (rightly) recognizing the need to turn out voters in order to win. I think this is mature and smart on their part.

when have i trolled the left?  i just troll you, and only when you really deserve it.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

Right now I'd bet that Trump will probably get 10-15% of Bernie primary voters. A whole lot depends on how the next 7+ months go; whether or not Biden and his team make efforts to win them, whether or not the media establishment maintains its current course, etc...

A chunk of Bernie primary voters will just not vote at all. Bernie generates enthusiasm among traditionally non-voting and traditionally not-loyal-to-Democrats bases (young people, Latinos, etc...) and, as of now, they are absolutely not going to make a special effort to turn out for Joe. I bet this is the most fluid range and could be extremely high (relatively).

A third party candidate will likely rise up at some point (Stein or otherwise) and get a small percentage of Bernie primary voters.

Is it possible for Joe to get 90% of Bernie primary voters who actually show up to vote in November? Sure. That's a best case scenario and would require a lot of things to go right for Joe.

The Bernie->Trump voter # is probably fixed ~10-15%. But third party and non-voting? That shit could skyrocket if Joe doesn't do a good job.

But many here seem very confident that this doesn't matter and Joe has it in the bag, so be heartened. :)

---

Regarding "90%", I'm not even going to engage with an argument that you just made up out of thin air to get mad at. Quote me saying that and I'll respond to my own actual argument and not your pique-induced trolling campaign of just lying outright to start fights.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

This is not good.

Insanely low enthusiasm among his supporters.

Also, relevant to this conversation, this poll shows 15% of Sanders supporters going to Trump. Lower than I would expect at this particular point in a hot primary, honestly. I would've expected a contraction to that 10-15% I mentioned in my earlier post to happen at the convention when some unity starts being built. Hopefully that's a good sign that the contraction will <10%?

That low enthusiasm will make the non-voter portion rise, though.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

Voters are enigmatic.

The policy-first voter is not in the majority. Hell, we're obsessed with politics here and half of us (or more) don't actually have any clear and consistent policy beliefs. Class loyalty, race loyalty, hurt feelings, spite, how TV ads make them feel... a ton of reasons voters change preferred candidates or make voting decisions in the booth.

We have people here who went into the booth for this primary and just waited for a feeling to make choices.

It's one of the reasons that super-low enthusiasm is bad.

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Red Five

Red Five 40632

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Posted

MORE: Strong enthusiasm for Joe Biden among his supporters—just 24%—is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/WaPo polls. 53% of Pres. Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him. https://abcn.ws/2xuZzIr

Wow if Biden gets 53% of Trump supporters I think he has a pretty good shot. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18651

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Posted
8 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Oh yeah, the VP choice will win over the "I must get Bernie or I will vote for Trump" set. Whichever person Biden chooses will get the let's search out a way to cancel them treatment. 

If you support Bernie Sanders and then vote for Donald Trump, you are too dumb for words.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Specifically trying to win over Sanders->Trump voters isn't the easy route to voters, because their motivations are nebulous and, generally, unamenable to reason. It's easy to focus on them in some kind of attempt to supplant one's own lack of beliefs with rage and superiority, but as a bloc they aren't terribly reachable.

The non-voters and third-party voters is who you go after. The non-voters, especially, are (relatively) easy, just listen to what they want and give it to them.

I think that if all Joe is prepared to do to win over young voters is say, "Come on, man, Trump is bad" then he's not going to get them to turn out.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18651

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25 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Specifically trying to win over Sanders->Trump voters isn't the easy route to voters, because their motivations are nebulous and, generally, unamenable to reason. It's easy to focus on them in some kind of attempt to supplant one's own lack of beliefs with rage and superiority, but as a bloc they aren't terribly reachable.

The non-voters and third-party voters is who you go after. The non-voters, especially, are (relatively) easy, just listen to what they want and give it to them.

I think that if all Joe is prepared to do to win over young voters is say, "Come on, man, Trump is bad" then he's not going to get them to turn out.

They aren't going to turn out anyway. See: Bernie Sanders 2020.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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I realize, David, that you're just a hurt feelings troll like henry and jimmy and mdmost (and others), but I think it's useful go ahead and use your collective whining as a springboard for real discussion about actual data.

Popular vote so far in the 2020 Democratic Primary:
Biden: 10.1M (1168 delegates)
Sanders: 7.7M (884 delegates)

Sanders is clearly losing by a statistically significant margin. A functionally-insurmountable deficit, in fact. However, we're still talking about many many millions of voters who turned out to vote and are winnable in the 2020 general, if we care about actually winning and not just being a bitch on the Internet. :)

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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“hurt feelings troll” - voted for bernie on super tuesday, thinks bernie is a better candidate, would vote for bernie in a second if he made a comeback and won the nomination. i’d also donate and do my best to spread the word. 

i can’t speak for the rest of your list, but you need to stop blaming everything on “hurt feelings”. 

princess bride Theatre & Musicals GIF

 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18651

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

I realize, David, that you're just a hurt feelings troll like henry and jimmy and mdmost (and others), but I think it's useful go ahead and use your collective whining as a springboard for real discussion about actual data.

Popular vote so far in the 2020 Democratic Primary:
Biden: 10.1M (1168 delegates)
Sanders: 7.7M (884 delegates)

Sanders is clearly losing by a statistically significant margin. A functionally-insurmountable deficit, in fact. However, we're still talking about many many millions of voters who turned out to vote and are winnable in the 2020 general, if we care about actually winning and not just being a bitch on the Internet. :)

A hurt feelings troll who voted for Bernie Sanders, unlike the millions of Americans age 18-25 who, despite being super pumped for Bernie, did not. If they aren't motivated enough to get out and vote for Bernie Sanders, what can Joe Biden do to convince them to show up in the fall? 

 

Edited by David Dennison
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JustBecause

JustBecause 112

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

This is not good.

Insanely low enthusiasm among his supporters.

Also, relevant to this conversation, this poll shows 15% of Sanders supporters going to Trump. Lower than I would expect at this particular point in a hot primary, honestly. I would've expected a contraction to that 10-15% I mentioned in my earlier post to happen at the convention when some unity starts being built. Hopefully that's a good sign that the contraction will <10%?

That low enthusiasm will make the non-voter portion rise, though.

Get ready for the “Draft Andrew Cuomo” bandwagon to start gaining steam.  Just by seeing what anvil Joe is doing in controlled settings, imagine him live on a stage with Trump or even with journalists.  He’s a placeholder and nothing else.  

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