2019 NCAA Final Four in Minneapolis

[Horn80 6131]

Want Tech to win this.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

Yeah this is a crazy bad take. MSU was entirely unable to score inside when Owens was in the game. They started posting up immediately and scoring steadily down low after he got hurt. Tech probably wins that game by 15+ if he played his full minutes.

Ha, I'm rooting hard for Tech but on what planet are they 15 points better than Virginia?  Of course they could win by 15 but to say it matter of factly is funny to see.  Either way, I think Tech actually needs to run a bit and get Virginia uncomfortable, even more so if Owens is out. 

[ClubWhatever 12153]

I didn’t read the thread.  Sorry.  But who does Virginia have that can stop Mooney?   He continually bodied up and out physicaled the MSU all American guard.  If they use Jerome on him it will foul him out. To me this is the biggest matchup issue of the game. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

18 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I didn’t read the thread.  Sorry.  But who does Virginia have that can stop Mooney?   He continually bodied up and out physicaled the MSU all American guard.  If they use Jerome on him it will foul him out. To me this is the biggest matchup issue of the game. 

This ^^^^^^^ UVA is not a physical team.  If the refs let bodies bump TT has a much better chance of winning.  Salt is UVA's only big muscle guy, and he's been hampered by back issues since Feb. 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Onboard 2.0

[CDAK 216]

1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

Yeah this is a crazy bad take. MSU was entirely unable to score inside when Owens was in the game. They started posting up immediately and scoring steadily down low after he got hurt. Tech probably wins that game by 15+ if he played his full minutes.

You are way overvaluing individual players. I know this is not a perfect comparison but Kevin Durant is worth 3.5-4 points in an NBA game in Vegas.   https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/what-kevin-durant-worth-point-spread  And there are a lot more points scored in the NBA than college.  3.5-4 points out of 200 is less impact than 3.5-4 points out of 120.

UVA is a 1 point favorite in Vegas.  You think if Tariq Owens was healthy, Tech would be a 9 point favorite?  

[CDAK 216]

2 hours ago, slorch said:

He could be worth a 10 point swing when you consider his rim protection/ shot blocker on defense. He’s a solid contributor on offense, but to your point not a true difference maker to that tune of the final score for Tech. B

 

2 hours ago, Doyle Hargreaves said:

This is spot on. He is the single season record holder shot blocker in program history. Knocked down some big shots Saturday. Made 3 key blocks. Made sparty struggle overall on shot selection. If he is limited, it changes the whole game. 

Meant to quote these as well. Owens is not worth 10 points.  That's nuts.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, CDAK said:

 

Meant to quote these as well. Owens is not worth 10 points.  That's nuts.

Cool.  because that's not what i said.  and YES, he absolutely is worth a 10 point swing between teams.

If Culver drives the offense, Owens is the big pain in the ass defender in the middle who wrecks shots for the opposing teams.

Edited April 8, 2019 by slorch

[Loco 3753]

12 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

This ^^^^^^^ UVA is not a physical team.  If the refs let bodies bump TT has a much better chance of winning.  Salt is UVA's only big muscle guy, and he's been hampered by beck issues since Feb. 

"Did you say beck?"   -Leo Getz

[CDAK 216]

3 hours ago, slorch said:

He could be worth a 10 point swing when you consider his rim protection/ shot blocker on defense.

 

3 minutes ago, CDAK said:

 

Meant to quote these as well. Owens is not worth 10 points.  That's nuts.

 

2 minutes ago, slorch said:

Cool.  because that's not what i said.  and YES, he absolutely is worth a 10 point swing between teams.

I am not sure what I am misinterpreting.  You think he COULD be worth 10 points.  He's not worth 10 points.  The line is not moving anywhere close to 10 points based on the health of Owens.

[Guest]

It would be a 5 point swing, first of all, because there are two teams; and if he was healthy I'd wager Tech would be favored.

All that being said, the betting line is hardly the barometer of a player's impact.  The story has yet to be told.

Ignore people have watched Tech all season, though.   WTF do we know?

[Brian Fantana 6689]

30 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Ha, I'm rooting hard for Tech but on what planet are they 15 points better than Virginia?  Of course they could win by 15 but to say it matter of factly is funny to see.  Either way, I think Tech actually needs to run a bit and get Virginia uncomfortable, even more so if Owens is out. 

??? I said Tech probably wins by 15+ over MSU if Owens doesn't get hurt. Like I said, MSU could not score inside at all until he left the game. They got back in the game by posting up and driving and getting FTs which they could not do when Owens was in.

Everything in my post was past tense lol

Edited April 8, 2019 by Brian Fantana

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

??? I said Tech probably wins by 15+ over MSU if Owens doesn't get hurt. Like I said, MSU could not score inside at all until he left the game. They got back in the game by posting up and driving which they could not do when Owens was in.

I’m drunk.  That I’ll agree with.  Guns up. 

Edited April 8, 2019 by ChiTownDoc
Cubs opener, 70 and perfect!

[CDAK 216]

Just now, slorch said:

It would be a 5 point swing, first of all, because there are two teams; and if he was healthy I'd wager Tech would be favored.

All that being said, the betting line is hardly the barometer of a player's impact.  The story has yet to be told.

Ignore people have watched Tech all season, though.   WTF do we know?

What?  UVA is a 1 point favorite.  If Owens is worth 10 points as you said, that would move the line to Tech -9.  That's 10 points between the two teams.  

And yes, in general, I trust betting markets much more than fans who have watched a bunch of games.

[Guest]

You're denser than fuck...

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, slorch said:

It would be a 5 point swing, first of all, because there are two teams; and if he was healthy I'd wager Tech would be favored.

All that being said, the betting line is hardly the barometer of a player's impact.  The story has yet to be told.

Ignore people have watched Tech all season, though.   WTF do we know?

It would not be a 5 point odds swing.  1-2 at most. On the court it might be 5 points.  I think Vegas has a pretty good record of player impact... it's their business model, knowing that kind of shit.

[Guest]

Sure...It's absolute, right?

 

whatever.  Y'all are talking about betting lines.

 

I'm talking about the actual impact Owens has on the way Tech plays.  That doesn't mean someone else on Tech won't pick up the slack, IE Moretti vs Gonzaga or Mooney vs Mich State.

Edited April 8, 2019 by slorch

[Brian Fantana 6689]

1 minute ago, CDAK said:

And yes, in general, I trust betting markets much more than fans who have watched a bunch of games.

The only betting line that Tech hasn't demolished by double digits in this tournament has been against NKU in the first round. Tech has completely wiped its ass with Vegas betting lines the whole tournament but I guess you could go with that if you like.

[CDAK 216]

4 minutes ago, slorch said:

You're denser than fuck...

Show your math.  Take this hypothetical.  Warriors are favored by 10 over the Pelicans.  Durant is worth 3.5-4.  It's announced he's out before the game.  What is the resulting line?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, slorch said:

Sure...It's absolute, right?

Not at all, it's just odds.  Unemotional numbers in an algorithm.  TT has played above expectations. I didn't think they were gonna get by a loaded team like MSU, but they rolled so they could just be flying under the radar very well.

[CDAK 216]

3 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

The only betting line that Tech hasn't demolished by double digits in this tournament has been against NKU in the first round. Tech has completely wiped its ass with Vegas betting lines the whole tournament but I guess you could go with that if you like.

Is your point that I should take the word of you and the mathematically challenged Slorch regarding how many points Owens is worth because Tech has handily covered 5 games so far in the tournament?

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

I haven't watched a basketball game in several years (and I have no idea who Owens or anyone else is or how many points they are worth), but I'll probably tune in tonight (well, I'll be hopping back and forth with Astros) and I hope Tech pulls it off.

Go Tech.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

I haven't watched a basketball game in several years (and I have no idea who Owens or anyone else is or how many points they are worth), but I'll probably tune in tonight (well, I'll be hopping back and forth with Astros) and I hope Tech pulls it off.
Go Tech.

Honestly what are you doing in your life to not watch a single basketball game... and you're on a sports message board so you obviously like sports

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

4 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I haven't watched a basketball game in several years (and I have no idea who Owens or anyone else is or how many points they are worth), but I'll probably tune in tonight (well, I'll be hopping back and forth with Astros) and I hope Tech pulls it off.
Go Tech.

Honestly what are you doing in your life to not watch a single basketball game... and you're on a sports message board so you obviously like sports

Haha, certainly nothing exciting. Just not really into basketball. I watch an obscene amount of baseball April - October. Watch some football Sep - Jan.

I guess I don't watch much TV in Feb-March. 

[BillyBadAss 189]

31 minutes ago, CDAK said:

Show your math.  Take this hypothetical.  Warriors are favored by 10 over the Pelicans.  Durant is worth 3.5-4.  It's announced he's out before the game.  What is the resulting line?

Something doesn't square up here. Durant's 2018-19 stats:

PPG 26.1

Rebounds: 6.5

Assists: 5.9

Betting lines aside, you're telling me that if KD misses a game, the score is not affected by more than 4 points? 

I find that hard to believe. 

 

 

[CDAK 216]

Yes, correct (understanding that I'm basing that assertion on betting lines).  I would note, if you read the article I linked, that some folks had Durant slight higher and worth 4-4.5 points.  Below is an explanation from the site.  In any event, the overarching point is that Owens is significant but no way is he worth 10 points, particularly when the O/U is 118, which is well well below most NBA games.

 

I have Durant worth four to 4.5 points to the point spread and Dave Mason from BetOnline told me he has Durant valued at 3.5 to four points. 

When our OddsShark numbers came back, we found those numbers made sense. Here are the average OKC point spreads with Durant in and out of the lineup over the past two seasons: 

OUT: -1.54
IN: -5.88 (missed 65 games) 

So we’re looking at around a tangible 4.5 points to the spread. Even with the bigger numbers OKC proved to be a better bet with KD on the court. 

With Durant out of the lineup the last two seasons, the Thunder were 30-35 SU (straight up), 29-35-1 ATS (against the spread) and 33-29-3 OVER/UNDER (he missed 55 games in the 2014-15 season with injury). Just this past season he only missed 10 games and the Thunder were 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS and 5-5 OVER/UNDER. 

With Durant in the lineup over the last two seasons, the Thunder were 81-36 SU, 56-57-4 ATS and 54-63 OVER/UNDER. That still didn’t make them a profitable bet but they were 49.5 percent against the spread with Durant in the lineup compared to 46.1 percent with him sidelined. 

What’s intriguing is that the totals seem to be a little inflated with Durant in the lineup. The UNDER hit at 53.8 percent with Durant in the lineup compared to 46.7 percent with him out. 

Might be something to watch next year along with inflated lines. I don’t think Durant can still be worth four or 4.5 points to the spread with all the talent running around for the Warriors. 

I do think the recreational bettor is going to be uncomfortable betting against the Warriors though so there may be some value in the early going. We’ll see.   

[dcar00 14314]

15 minutes ago, BillyBadAss said:

Something doesn't square up here. Durant's 2018-19 stats:

PPG 26.1

Rebounds: 6.5

Assists: 5.9

Betting lines aside, you're telling me that if KD misses a game, the score is not affected by more than 4 points? 

I find that hard to believe. 

 

 

someone has to take those shots and get those rebounds.  what you are not factoring in is that his output could be split between 2 other players....and those players could be curry and thompson.  one player can make the difference in winning or losing but the amount of "points" he could be the difference in is not that big especially on the warriors.  put Durant on the Suns and it is probably a larger difference, IMO.

[BillyBadAss 189]

The relevant numbers here though would not be the point spread and how they performed against it. It would be what is the actual point differential (average) with KD in vs out. 

That would most closely measure his impact in this context. i.e. how many more baskets do they score/stop when he plays vs not. 

If he's only worth +4 over anyone else, it doesn't seem that it would make sense to pay super-stars. You'd be better off have having an overall solid team with depth than having a KD or Lebron. 

Caveat: I don't know what I'm talking about in any way here, but it just doesn't pass the smell test.  

[CDAK 216]

Look at the explanation in the article I posted above.  The betting line was approximately 4.5 points different when Durant was in vs when he was out.  The Thunder (I know the article is a couple years old) were 29-35-1 ATS with Durant out.  And the Thunder were 56-57-4 ATS with Durant in.  So they were close to the same against the spread, regardless of whether he was in or out.  That shows that the 4.5 point difference was accurate.

[Okie State 3821]

Isn't there an entire gambling forum for this bullshit?

[BillyBadAss 189]

Well, the discussion  wasn't initially about gambling. It was about the potential impact of one player on the game. CDAK's point seems to be that the betting numbers and performance against those numbers are a good proxy to measure this.  But I'll take your point that we've gotten off topic and drop it.. 

[hundredTT 578]

Wreck Em Tech! I don't hate Virginia, but the luck they have is fucking annoying. Plus who doesn't want to see what will happen in the Lubbock streets if Tech takes it all???

[Surly Bevo 25084]

How the refs call this game early will be pretty big.  

[GSU&UT 1798]

Fuck a 9:20pm Eastern start time on a weekday, jesus christ.

[TornACL 7722]

15 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Fuck a 9:20pm Eastern start time on a weekday, jesus christ.

Bitching about the Championship Monday tip time, a tradition like no other. 

[Zepol87 9188]

This pregame concert sucks

[Michael Knight 12989]

1 minute ago, Zepol87 said:

This pregame concert sucks

Not fat enough for you?

[Bash Riprock 1695]

Tariq is high as fuck.

[UTEX_ME 4766]

jesus christ start already