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2019 NBA Offseason Thread -- Trades, Free Agents, Firings, Retirements, Etc

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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4 minutes ago, d2o said:

The real problem is the max contract itself.   It forces superstars to be "underpaid" and the team has to meet the salary floor.   If there was no max salary LBJ would make 100M/yr probably.    That would really make the spread that you are pointing out FAR larger though.

 

100% agree, but with the caveat that LBJ would be worth it.  KD would probably make far less than LBJ but he would probably still get $50M+.  You'd have maybe 1-2 guys a generation that would make dollars like that and the rest would be bunched around their "true" value between $5-$18M per year.  Are you familiar with how European soccer contracts work?  Do they have max contracts?  Just doing some cursory research shows that their team values and TV revenue are all around the NFL and NBA values, so a system in place where players just get paid what they are worth (more stat driven) could be feasible.  Neymar makes $54M a year, not including his $250M transfer fee.

I think that the max contract negtiation is going to end up being market or less than market for about 8 guys, it will pull about 10-12 guys above their value, and then it will use up all of the money for medium size contracts spread out over the other 400+ players in the league.

I'm looking on basketball-reference and counting that there are about 18 max contracts that have been signed in the last year or two (have years through the 21-22 season).  This represents $545M of contracts and doesn't include contracts signed/agreed to this offseason.  This represents about 17% of all of the money below the salary cap.  So there is about $2.725B left for 432 players (450 roster spots - 18 max contracts).  That's about $6.3M per player.  Obviously there are a ton of other factors to consider (vets taking minimum, rookie wage scale, etc) but the average player in the NBA is worth far more than $6.3M.  And that number is going to go down with how many new guys were sucked into the max vortex this summer.

I'm not sure if this is eve nclose to the right way to analyze the value of a players relative to each other based on their contributions on the court, but I can't see how this model works for the greater percentage of the players union.  It seems to feed the biggest names the close to big names and not the majority of the league.

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Mitch Cumsteen
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No, we want them to be consistent and not be hypocrites. I would prefer that they shut up and dribble, shoot, pitch, hit, tackle or kick but if you are going to be “woke”, don’t stop being woke only

Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21898

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Really interesting post.
What I don't care for are the buyout situations where a player like Iggy is traded, then immediately bought out of current contract, and then go directly to a team like the Lakers on minimum contracts. 
A terribly mismanaged Laker team then has the chance to be a Super Team and quickly win a Championship again just because the team happens to be in Los Angeles.  Team's like Sacramento, Charlotte and Minnesota never can recover as quickly from Draft/Trade/Contract mistakes like the Lakers can.


Works for me.
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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3933

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2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I get it that he will be 34 years old at the time, but how fucking generous of the Clippers to guarantee him another year of one of the most owner friendly contracts in the league. They are so philanthropic. Lou Williams is like the bizzarro Chandler Parsons.

Protects him vs catastrophic injury but yea, I get your point.

 

2 hours ago, d2o said:

Out of curiosity who on POR is missing out due to CJ being "overpaid"?   Meyers Leonard, Moe Harkless, and Evan Turner made a combined 40M+ last yr alone.   There looks to be plenty of money to go around.

Allen wasn't that averse to paying tax, but with his death (and probable future sale), you wonder if new ownership may be a bit more cost conscious.

 

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d2o

d2o 1602

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1 hour ago, Jhawk said:

100% agree, but with the caveat that LBJ would be worth it.  KD would probably make far less than LBJ but he would probably still get $50M+.  You'd have maybe 1-2 guys a generation that would make dollars like that and the rest would be bunched around their "true" value between $5-$18M per year.  Are you familiar with how European soccer contracts work?  Do they have max contracts?  Just doing some cursory research shows that their team values and TV revenue are all around the NFL and NBA values, so a system in place where players just get paid what they are worth (more stat driven) could be feasible.  Neymar makes $54M a year, not including his $250M transfer fee.

I think that the max contract negtiation is going to end up being market or less than market for about 8 guys, it will pull about 10-12 guys above their value, and then it will use up all of the money for medium size contracts spread out over the other 400+ players in the league.

I'm looking on basketball-reference and counting that there are about 18 max contracts that have been signed in the last year or two (have years through the 21-22 season).  This represents $545M of contracts and doesn't include contracts signed/agreed to this offseason.  This represents about 17% of all of the money below the salary cap.  So there is about $2.725B left for 432 players (450 roster spots - 18 max contracts).  That's about $6.3M per player.  Obviously there are a ton of other factors to consider (vets taking minimum, rookie wage scale, etc) but the average player in the NBA is worth far more than $6.3M.  And that number is going to go down with how many new guys were sucked into the max vortex this summer.

I'm not sure if this is eve nclose to the right way to analyze the value of a players relative to each other based on their contributions on the court, but I can't see how this model works for the greater percentage of the players union.  It seems to feed the biggest names the close to big names and not the majority of the league.

Just saying that the average player not on a max contract is "only" making 6M/yr is a weird way of trying to prove that average players are underpaid.    Additionally, what are you using to determine who is on a max contract?   "max" differs from situation to situation.

Edited by d2o
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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19053

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53 minutes ago, d2o said:

They are gonna be in one helluva cap spot in 2 yrs.   Embiid, Simmons, Harris and Horford all on max or near max contracts.

Yeah. Idk why or how they plan to pay that. And giving 5/170 to a guy who can't shoot when paired with Embiid, who needs to spend most of his time in the post, seems like a poor idea. 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19053

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3 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

That's a fantastic signing/risk for what is probably close to the minimum.  Yes, he's pretty limited but he can provide rebounding, picks, rim protection and energy for a shallow team.  Well done.

 

He doesn't provide any rim protection, at all. He's one of the worst centers in the league in terms of defensive FG% at the rim. 

Still a nice signing if they're getting him at the minimum, though.    He's a great rim runner and switch defender. Solid rebounder when he decides to try.

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d2o

d2o 1602

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9 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

That's a fantastic signing/risk for what is probably close to the minimum.  Yes, he's pretty limited but he can provide rebounding, picks, rim protection and energy for a shallow team.  Well done.

 

Isn't he under contract still?

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3933

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2 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

He doesn't provide any rim protection, at all. He's one of the worst centers in the league in terms of defensive FG% at the rim. 

Still a nice signing if they're getting him at the minimum, though.    He's a great rim runner and switch defender. Solid rebounder when he decides to try.

Yea, he's been a disappointment there, I think he lacks some instincts but he's a freak athlete with a huge wingspan and perhaps Kerr can get him to see the light.  No reason he shouldn't average at least 2 blocks per 36 minutes.

 

4 minutes ago, d2o said:

Isn't he under contract still?

No.  Kings didn't extend him a QO and let him go.  Don't get me wrong, I think he has some issues (pot is rumored) but still think for the minimum, it's a nice risk.  

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d2o

d2o 1602

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3 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Yea, he's been a disappointment there, I think he lacks some instincts but he's a freak athlete with a huge wingspan and perhaps Kerr can get him to see the light.  No reason he shouldn't average at least 2 blocks per 36 minutes.

 

No.  Kings didn't extend him a QO and let him go.  Don't get me wrong, I think he has some issues (pot is rumored) but still think for the minimum, it's a nice risk.  

For minimum, its a no brainer.   Especially for a team with cap issues.

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19053

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2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Yea, he's been a disappointment there, I think he lacks some instincts but he's a freak athlete with a huge wingspan and perhaps Kerr can get him to see the light.  No reason he shouldn't average at least 2 blocks per 36 minutes.

 

No.  Kings didn't extend him a QO and let him go.  Don't get me wrong, I think he has some issues (pot is rumored) but still think for the minimum, it's a nice risk.  

Definitely agree. I think it was time for the Kings to move on from him, and the Warriors are the perfect team for him to go to.

He's got all the talent in the world (besides shooting, I guess), but he's a headcase and you're lucky if he tries every other night. He couldn't even keep his effort up in a contract year. 

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21898

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1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Jimmys probably the coolest guy off the court. He was playing dominoes at the super bowl in Minneapolis a couple years ago in a field level suite. Dudes always playing dominoes or some kind of game

 

I wonder how he would hold up against Ashy Larry in dice.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49373

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6 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Cousins can't stay healthy.... He will play for a low amount this season and hope that he stays healthy.

New SI quote:  "There is "not a market" for DeMarcus Cousins during free agency this year. He has a slim chance of receiving a one-year deal with double-digit millions with a big market team"(Adrian Wojnarowski, ESPN)

Edited by LTtxfan
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WJC88

WJC88 97

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7 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

When I'm watching a game in mid Jan and they announce Dudley is entering the game, I look at the screen and go "WTF- he's still in the league"? It feels like he's been in the NBA since the mid 90's. 

 

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staboner

staboner 4988

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24 minutes ago, WJC88 said:

When I'm watching a game in mid Jan and they announce Dudley is entering the game, I look at the screen and go "WTF- he's still in the league"? It feels like he's been in the NBA since the mid 90's. 

 

hey fuck you man!

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Brew

Brew 3049

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Is there going to be anyone left for the Clippers, Lakers, and Raptors to fill out a roster with once Kawhi makes a decision? The first two are going to have some money to burn if they don’t get him and a limited pool of players the longer this goes.

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d2o

d2o 1602

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20 minutes ago, Brew said:

Is there going to be anyone left for the Clippers, Lakers, and Raptors to fill out a roster with once Kawhi makes a decision? The first two are going to have some money to burn if they don’t get him and a limited pool of players the longer this goes.

There are still a few decent players out there but yeah its gonna be rough on whoever loses out.

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aggie08

aggie08 21555

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10 minutes ago, d2o said:

There are still a few decent players out there but yeah its gonna be rough on whoever loses out.

I honestly did not expect Kawhi to milk it this hard. I mean, he doesn't owe the Lakers or Clippers a damn thing, but you'd think he'd feel some obligation to the Raptors to give them a heads up if he won't be back.

I guess Toronto probably wasn't going to make many big changes or signings even if they found out on the 30th.

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