Israel

[Brisketexan 105131]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 One more thought on this - as Americans we tend to bake the assumptions of the post-war international order of Great Powers into our thinking about places and people that are not full participants of that order. As a result we forget that leaders engaging in very thoroughly gamed out, complex, evidence-based data-driven high level strategic thought before they do things that could disrupt the status quo, is a new phenomenon more or less unique to our time and place, and not universal outside of great powers.
I am NOT saying that Hamas leaders definitely aren't smart or wise or rational actors acting on the results of a cost/benefit calculation. However, we can't assume they are in the same way that we can assume that about the senior leaders of great powers who arrive into their roles as part of a vast bureaucratic meritocracy with inputs from national popularity contests.

I'm sure that what Hamas is doing works for Iran and Russia. I am sure it does not benefit Palestine. I am also not sure that matters, or that we should assume Hamas thinks it does. 

 

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I think it's out of desperation. They've come to believe that they'll never live freely in their homeland and that more and more of their land will be taken from them. Maybe they just don't see a future worth living in and their only goal is to enact as much pain and suffering for the group they blame for their hopeless lot in life.

 

58 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

To Bozo's point (and in reference to the "why now, what's there to gain?" question); from studying history there's always the possibility it's just a weird result and not necessarily driven by greater strategic thinking.  Say, for example, maybe Iran made possible future payments dependent on "performance".  Maybe Iran actually told them to NOT do something last year because they were overwhelmed with their own protests and felt extra vulnerable and this is just a delayed action from that.  Maybe Hamas is beset by internal power struggles and going to war was a way for leadership there to reassert control. 

I've been listening to the BBC Empire podcasts and there's quite a few milestone moments in history that could have gone the other way but for something unexpected. 

All good posts.  And yes, "there's no bigger strategic thought here, it was just a tantrum by violent and angry fuckers" is a viable hypothesis as well.  My suggestion is only that we don't jump right to that, and dismiss the idea of a purposeful strategy.

And then yeah, layer it on there -- maybe the question isn't "what is Hamas's strategy in doing this?"  Maybe it's "what is Iran and Russia's strategy in manipulating and empowering Hamas to do this?"  Look at the chess board from every angle, including trying to identify the hands moving the pieces.

But yeah....history has turned on plenty of utterly irrational, emotional/petulant pivot points.  That may be the case here.

[RomaVicta 29907]

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If I am Taiwan right now I got my head on a fucking swivel. 

 

13 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Not yet. Not until the US is formerly engaged and entrenched in this new conflict. It'll make it harder for us to reposition at that point. 

I hate to be the asshole, but I don't want to defend Taiwan with the USN. I'd be glad of the excuse of being overextended to avoid doing so.

I think the surface fleet would be in terrible peril from submarine attack. We'd be in the position of deciding if all out war with China in their backyard is worth it. If a carrier goes down because we put it between China and Taiwan, we'll plunge into massive war.

Would anybody in hindsight think continuing to support a stupid 2-China policy is worth that? 

But they sank our boat!

Of course. Remember the Maine! And the Lusitania! And Tonkin Bay! And the WMD in Iraq! 

We'll be greeted as liberators. Weeping-with-joy citizens will rain candies and flowers on our boys!

Idiot World.

[Fastbreak 3985]

Since we are talking about Israel, let’s not forget the USS Liberty. Israel was perfectly cool with shooting up our boat and killing our guys also.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

Round them up along with the folks that openly support Nazis? 

As an aside you can find them at Torchy's in Fort Worth

 

[DixonHur 11303]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yes.  It raises a good point, though -- we need to publish a sock database.

For instance, I'm ctj.

I’m Spartacus

['stache 21815]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As an aside you can find them at Torchy's in Fort Worth

 

He doesn't care about brown shirts, just brown skin. 

[G650 14256]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

 

All good posts.  And yes, "there's no bigger strategic thought here, it was just a tantrum by violent and angry fuckers" is a viable hypothesis as well.  My suggestion is only that we don't jump right to that, and dismiss the idea of a purposeful strategy.

And then yeah, layer it on there -- maybe the question isn't "what is Hamas's strategy in doing this?"  Maybe it's "what is Iran and Russia's strategy in manipulating and empowering Hamas to do this?"  Look at the chess board from every angle, including trying to identify the hands moving the pieces.

But yeah....history has turned on plenty of utterly irrational, emotional/petulant pivot points.  That may be the case here.

 

To me the most likely outcome is they think they have a great strategic plan, but they are morons who miscalculated to a ridiculous degree.

[RomaVicta 29907]

11 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Since we are talking about Israel, let’s not forget the USS Liberty. Israel was perfectly cool with shooting up our boat and killing our guys also.

Fuck. I'd put that out of my mind. If I recall correctly, the Liberty would have discovered that Israel was attacking Jordan which the US did not approve.

The ship fought well considering it was for intelligence gathering. Israel sent medical helicopters, but the Americans told them to fuck off. Liberty limped back to an American base.

That attack was an outrage. I believe that was the key moment of me not buying into the mythology of our relationship with Israel. I think I may have realized around then that our habit of thinking of other countries as either friends and good guys or enemies and bad guys just might be a little simplistic.

6 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I’m Spartacus

Yes. He's Spartacus. Let's get that nice and straight.

Edited October 10, 2023 by RomaVicta

[Biff Tannen 45683]

54 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

 

Similarly related but had a conversation turn the other night after a few bottles of wine and the question was asked, would a 9/11 type event today unify the country like it did the post 2000 election division? We had 4 no and 3 yes

That should have been 100% no

[bernorange 8361]

32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yes.  It raises a good point, though -- we need to publish a sock database.

For instance, I'm ctj.

Nice try, Submart.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

19 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Since we are talking about Israel, let’s not forget the USS Liberty. Israel was perfectly cool with shooting up our boat and killing our guys also.

I learned some history today:

Quote

The USS Liberty incident was an attack on a United States Navy technical research ship (spy ship), USS Liberty, by Israeli Air Force jet fighter aircraft and Israeli Navy motor torpedo boats, on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War.^[2] The combined air and sea attack killed 34 crew members (naval officers, seamen, two marines, and one civilian NSA employee), wounded 171 crew members, and severely damaged the ship.^[3] At the time, the ship was in international waters north of the Sinai Peninsula, about 25.5 nmi (29.3 mi; 47.2 km) northwest from the Egyptian city of Arish.^[1][4]

Israel apologized for the attack, saying that the USS Liberty had been attacked in error after being mistaken for an Egyptian ship.^[5] Both the Israeli and U.S. governments conducted inquiries and issued reports that concluded the attack was a mistake due to Israeli confusion about the ship's identity.^[6] Others, including survivors of the attack, have rejected these conclusions and maintain that the attack was deliberate.^[7][8]

In May 1968, the Israeli government paid US$3.32 million (equivalent to US$28 million in 2022) to the U.S. government in compensation for the families of the 34 men killed in the attack. In March 1969, Israel paid a further $3.57 million ($28.5 million in 2022) to the men who had been wounded. In December 1980, it agreed to pay $6 million ($21.3 million in 2022) as the final settlement for material damage to the ship plus 13 years of interest.^[9]

 

[G650 14256]

As I mentioned earlier my biggest gripe with Israel is being a crappy ally

[Js1 85326]

18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As an aside you can find them at Torchy's in Fort Worth

 

Almost as bad as their crappy tortillas. Fitting really - crappy tacos, crappy tortillas, crappy patrons 

[C-Man 27223]

10 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Israel stated they were warning occupants via text of targets. This was a standard SOP in the past. Palestinians are saying no warnings were given. 

Break down in comms? Lying on either or both sides? This is a shit fest. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by C-Man

[Satchel 6938]

1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

Stop thinking about what's in it for Hamas.  

Hamas are the pawns, not the player.  The players are Russia, Iran, KSA...and likely China. 

The goal is to destabilize the West.

Wouldn't shock me to see an escalation that involved China invading Taiwan and/or N. Korea going after S. Korea.

The thinner they can spread the US military, the better.  Not to mention the drain on America's financial resources.

I think this is way bigger than Hamas vs Israel.

Very true. The Hamas terrorists are fighting a proxy war for Iran and Russia.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

7 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Very true. The Hamas terrorists are fighting a proxy war for Iran and Russia.

If Iran is kept out of this mess in Israel, Israel won't have much trouble clearing out Gaza. I'm not even sure that the West Bank is even thinking of doing anything here.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

3 hours ago, bernorange said:

To the surprise of no one, Senator Graham is broadcasting calls for war with Iran if things escalate.  Anyone think things are not going to escalate?

[chainsaw 9867]

Before we

About Russia and Iran, let's consider the simplest explanation.

These kids were radicalized by Gaza's equivalent of African warlords, recruited from a large supply of destitute orphan males who have lived their entire lives in an open-air prison where 80% of the water is unfit to drink. The kids were agitated on a daily basis into hating their wealthy, unoppressed neighbors who then had the audacity to throw a music festival at the gates of their prison. They wanted to give these civilians a taste of what life is like on the other side, and the warlords who radicalized them provided them with an opportunity to live that fantasy out, with disgusting results.

Do Iran and Russia benefit? Perhaps. But until I see some evidence of strings being pulled I'd hesitate to jump to any conclusions:

[TexArcher 37774]

54 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I’m Spartacus

I am Keyser Soze.

[DixonHur 11303]

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Before we

About Russia and Iran, let's consider the simplest explanation.

These kids were radicalized by Gaza's equivalent of African warlords, recruited from a large supply of destitute orphan males who have lived their entire lives in an open-air prison where 80% of the water is unfit to drink. The kids were agitated on a daily basis into hating their wealthy, unoppressed neighbors who then had the audacity to throw a music festival at the gates of their prison. They wanted to give these civilians a taste of what life is like on the other side, and the warlords who radicalized them provided them with an opportunity to live that fantasy out, with disgusting results.

Do Iran and Russia benefit? Perhaps. But until I see some evidence of strings being pulled I'd hesitate to jump to any conclusions:

Possible, but I think unlikely.

For starters, Hamas has never shown this amount of tactical planning.

Secondly, where did Hamas get the 5,000 rockets they've fired into Israel since Saturday?  

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Nah. Let's name them after presidents.

 

A10 - The Flying Tricky Dick

F35 - The Slick Willie 

And with an assist from @YGIFS

Seal Team - The Van Buren Boys

[Satchel 6938]

26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Iran is kept out of this mess in Israel, Israel won't have much trouble clearing out Gaza. I'm not even sure that the West Bank is even thinking of doing anything here.

Israel should focus on clearing out Hamas and not the Palestinian people.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3283]

Begun, the twitter war has...
 

 

[chainsaw 9867]

17 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Possible, but I think unlikely.

For starters, Hamas has never shown this amount of tactical planning.

Secondly, where did Hamas get the 5,000 rockets they've fired into Israel since Saturday?  

Tactical planning meaning what? is it anything more intricate than what the average 17-year-old does in Valorant or Call of Duty?

I don't know much about the sophistication of the rockets that were used. I'd read somewhere that they were about as crappy as they come. We'll probably learn more about their likely origins as IDF recovers and analyzes them. Of course, we aren't likely to get the whole truth from them which means even then we'd only have to speculate. And I'd prefer not to jump to conclusions.

[InkaUtexas 25931]

8 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Israel should focus on clearing out Hamas and not the Palestinian people.

Cross posting from the other thread. Credit to @Viper

See, that is the issue. The people live all around Hamas and have no where to go. And if they do, Hamas will go with them. Meanwhile Hospitals become HQ's. Yeah, that is where I am sure that is a great place. 

 

 

[chainsaw 9867]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Cross posting from the other thread. Credit to @Viper

See, that is the issue. The people live all around Hamas and have no where to go. And if they do, Hamas will go with them. Meanwhile Hospitals become HQ's. Yeah, that is where I am sure that is a great place. 

 

 

We're seriously using Richard Hanania as anything other than a punchline?

EDIT: Holy shit imagine a twitter thread where the least regarded take comes from Tristan Tate.

Edited October 10, 2023 by chainsaw

[wildcat09 29354]

Yeah, there’s much better sources available than assholes like him and Ben Shapiro.

[Bozo_Casanova 26452]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Cross posting from the other thread. Credit to @Viper

See, that is the issue. The people live all around Hamas and have no where to go. And if they do, Hamas will go with them. Meanwhile Hospitals become HQ's. Yeah, that is where I am sure that is a great place. 

Don't quote Richard Hanania though

[Foosters 17856]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

We're seriously using Richard Hanania as anything other than a punchline?

EDIT: Holy shit imagine a twitter thread where the least regarded take comes from Tristan Tate.

DT is currently undergoing an identity crisis. Posters breathlessly posting their favorite alt-right "DONT TRUST THE ENEMY OF HTE PEOPLE MAINSTREAM MEDIA" who are just . . . . linking to MSM investigative stories.

[InkaUtexas 25931]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Tactical planning meaning what? is it anything more intricate than what the average 17-year-old does in Valorant or Call of Duty?

I don't know much about the sophistication of the rockets that were used. I'd read somewhere that they were about as crappy as they come. We'll probably learn more about their likely origins as IDF recovers and analyzes them. Of course, we aren't likely to get the whole truth from them which means even then we'd only have to speculate. And I'd prefer not to jump to conclusions.

I think it means that up until now they could raid and blow shit up. 

Concerning the rockets. Most are small versions of the Soviet Katyusha. easy to make. Aim in a general direction, launch, hope you hit something. I mean, you are aiming at cities, not individual units, etc. 

But supposedly they do have bigger and better weapons not launched yet. These are Chinese made, provided to Iran, who remanufactures them and hands them around the region. How do the poor as shit Hoot's (Iranian backed) have SCUD that can hit refineries in KSA? 

[InkaUtexas 25931]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Don't quote Richard Hanania though

Sorry you all, not my region to follow. But I have seen evidence of extremists hiding shit in hospitals, mosques, using ambulances to transport weapons. 

Guess I am a better source? And they did cite UN/NY Times, etc. 

[DixonHur 11303]

17 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Tactical planning meaning what? is it anything more intricate than what the average 17-year-old does in Valorant or Call of Duty?

They built mock Israeli towns and practiced the raids for weeks.  I also think the use of motorized paragliders was a new tactic.  That's not something you can do without lots of planning and practice.

I get not jumping to conclusions, but I think there is ample evidence that something was different this time.

[RollingPresidential 633]

Just want to pop in that this thread is vastly superior to its analogue on the IT politics board, which I accidentally stumbled into trying to find Scipio's latest post.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

36 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Begun, the twitter war has...
 

 

Is that real?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

3 hours ago, Macklemore said:

Don’t import and bring these shits and their conflict with Jews to our country by permitting immigration from where these bastards come from. That’s a start. 

So, you going back to Persia, or what?

[Macklemore 2872]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, you going back to Persia, or what?

I thought you were smarter than this. 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3283]

7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Is that real?

Pretty sure it is:
 

 

https://x.com/khamenei_ir?s=20

https://x.com/Israel?s=20

 

 

[elguapo 4586]

 

[Disco Strangler 1876]

Kid Hitler can fuck right off.

 

[chainsaw 9867]

47 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

But supposedly they do have bigger and better weapons not launched yet.

WMDs all over again. I'll believe it when I see it.

[RomaVicta 29907]

This is probably pretty small of me, but I was curious about the only person who negged my post above with the terrorist pictures. Henderson Horn? Seemed vaguely familiar with no negative connotations. So, I hit the person's profile and see it's some person who posted once years ago and now just negs people. 

Now for the petty part. I'm going to his five year old post to neg that sorry ass. I think I'm doing mainly because this wad seems like a coward. Anyone wanting to join me is welcome. Or neg me for being a punk. 

I'm conflicted.

 

 

[DDD Dad 14339]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The majority of Arab Americans (and the world wide diaspora) are Catholics and Orthodox. Less than a quarter in the US are Muslims. Most fled the region in various waves to flee violence and persecution from both the Muslims and the Israelis. And those wounds still run deep, two or three generations later. So before the xenophobes start riding around in trucks looking for some Arabs to harass, maybe consider they their families have been worshipping Jesus…some in the same tongue he used…for a multiple longer than this country has existed. 

Don't forget the Coptics.

[wildcat09 29354]

4 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

This is probably pretty small of me, but I was curious about the only person who negged my post above with the terrorist pictures. Henderson Horn? Seemed vaguely familiar with no negative connotations. So, I hit the person's profile and see it's some person who posted once years ago and now just negs people. 

Now for the petty part. I'm going to his five year old post to neg that sorry ass. I think I'm doing mainly because this wad seems like a coward. Anyone wanting to join me is welcome. Or neg me for being a punk. 

I'm conflicted.

 

 

My guess is Rex getting revenge after his little tantrum yesterday.

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

39 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

They built mock Israeli towns and practiced the raids for weeks.  I also think the use of motorized paragliders was a new tactic.  That's not something you can do without lots of planning and practice.

I get not jumping to conclusions, but I think there is ample evidence that something was different this time.

Where did they do all this? Gaza isn't that big, and you'd think every inch of it is under 24 hr surveillance. Was the training done in Iran? Syria? Pretty big intelligence miss if they were able to build mock towns and practice CQB out in the open in Gaza. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21198]

21 minutes ago, elguapo said:

 

Fucking twat.  JFC can this dude eat a bullet already?

[Anastasis 23469]

16 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Don't forget the Coptics.

Why shouldn't I? The West did a long time ago. In the same way that they have forgotten most of the Christians in the Middle East. Those people are not nearly as useful to American hegemonic policy interests as turning a blind eye to illegal settlements and the people that want to build the Third Temple and a well lit landing strip for Dispensationalist Jesus in J-town.   

Edited October 10, 2023 by Anastasis

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Sorry you all, not my region to follow. 

 

You all? 

 

I don't know where you come from, yankee robot, but it's y'all. Negged with prejudice 

[DDD Dad 14339]

1 minute ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

You all? 

 

I don't know where you come from, yankee robot, but it's y'all. Negged with prejudice 

I believe the preferred term is youse guys

[InkaUtexas 25931]

29 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

WMDs all over again. I'll believe it when I see it.

Agree, just saying what I saw. 

https://www.statista.com/chart/24845/estimated-range-of-unguided-rockets-used-by-hamas/

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

28 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

This is probably pretty small of me, but I was curious about the only person who negged my post above with the terrorist pictures. Henderson Horn? Seemed vaguely familiar with no negative connotations. So, I hit the person's profile and see it's some person who posted once years ago and now just negs people. 

Now for the petty part. I'm going to his five year old post to neg that sorry ass. I think I'm doing mainly because this wad seems like a coward. Anyone wanting to join me is welcome. Or neg me for being a punk. 

I'm conflicted.

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

My guess is Rex getting revenge after his little tantrum yesterday.

 

It's that guy who got banned and came back as 4doorsmorewhores.....the Incredulity twin. I can't remember his original handle, but he had a chick doing squats as his avatar......this is 100% his modus operandi