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17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The hospital strike claims need to be assessed with caution. Inflammatory claims related extreme events such as this require that we don't jump to conclusions and let the evidence play out. Atrocity propaganda assessments should work the same whether the claims relate to Hamas or Israeli actions.  

Some would say not immediately believing this atrocity propaganda makes you an anti-Muslim religious bigot. Rational people would say this is just the smart approach. 

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Some would say not immediately believing this atrocity propaganda makes you an anti-Muslim religious bigot. Rational people would say this is just the smart approach. 

I’m not very smart and this is all I was trying to advocate and stress last week in this thread. I kicked the hornets nest of emotional posting.
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As instructed, they evacuated from the north and are now getting bombed in the south.

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‘No More Safe Places in Gaza’: Evacuees Face Airstrikes in North and South
Some Palestinians said they were considering returning to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip as strikes intensified in the south.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who heeded the Israeli military’s order to evacuate portions of the Gaza Strip are confronting deadly airstrikes from Israeli warplanes even after they’ve moved. And a grim question hung over the enclave on Tuesday: Was there anywhere safe to go?

Last week, after the deadly Oct. 7 cross-border attacks by Hamas, Israel ordered all of Gaza’s northern residents — some 1.1 million people — to abandon their homes ahead of an expected ground invasion of the strip and to head south. Hundreds of thousands obeyed, leaving by car, motorcycle and even on foot.

But on Tuesday, Israel said it had intensified its bombing in the southern Gaza cities of Khan Younis and Rafah, just as the residential buildings there were swelling with new arrivals and as food, water, medicines and other supplies were running out.

Asked why Israel continued to strike in southern Gaza after ordering people to evacuate there, Maj. Nir Dinar, an Israeli military spokesman, said that Israel sought to avoid civilian casualties but that members of Hamas were hiding out among Gazan civilians. He added that southern Gaza was relatively safer than the north, but not entirely safe.

Some Palestinians who fled the north said they were considering returning to their homes as strikes intensify in the south. The north has been under relentless bombardment by Israel for the past 10 days.

“There’s constant bombing, even in these areas they say are safe — but there are no more safe places in Gaza,” said Mohammad Ayoub, 57, who had fled with his family from Beit Hanoun with only a few personal items.

“Today is worse than all the previous bad days,” said Dr. Mohamed Zaqout, general manager of Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. He said his hospital had received 42 bodies from Tuesday’s strikes; 26 of those remained unidentified in the morgue hours later. The dead included 10 women and 15 children, he said.

A strike also hit Ahly Arab Hospital in Gaza City, killing at least 500 Palestinians, according to a spokeswoman for the Palestinian Health Ministry. Many civilians were sheltering at the hospital, better known as Al-Ma’amadani.

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that hospitals were not Israeli military targets. “The I.D.F. is investigating the source of the explosion and, like always, is prioritizing accuracy and reliability,” the Israeli military said in a statement. “We urge everyone to proceed with caution.”

Everywhere you turned in Khan Younis, there was a sense of a city on the brink of disaster. People were sleeping in the streets. There were long lines in front of water tanks, bakeries and market stalls, with fights erupting over the last remaining loaves of bread and tomatoes. Some people were building ovens from sand and soil to bake bread the traditional way — and save their families from starvation.

Everyone is “just trying to survive,” Yousef Hammash, advocacy officer for the Norwegian Refugee Council, an aid group, said in a voice message from Khan Younis. Mr. Hammash is among those who were displaced from the northern part of Gaza.

The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights said in a statement on Tuesday that Israel’s evacuation order, combined with an imposition of a “complete siege” on Gaza, might amount to a forcible transfer of civilians, which is illegal under international law.

Some people were staying in U.N. schools turned into shelters, but the majority were being hosted by their extended families in overcrowded homes, or simply sleeping rough.

Rami Abu Moleg, 43, a taxi driver living in the southern city of Deir Al Balah, said his family of five was struggling to find bread and water — all while hosting six members of his cousin’s family who had fled from Gaza City in the north. He described regular bombardment in the area, with at least six explosions since early Tuesday morning.

The house has had no power for four days. The two families were huddled in the same room where they had removed the windows to prevent them from shattering during airstrikes. Two days before, Mr. Abu Moleg said, a house close to theirs was hit, killing three children and their mother.

“If we die, we prefer to die together,” he said of himself and his family.

Southern Gaza’s hospitals have become increasingly stretched thin. At Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, the intensive-care unit is full, with no beds available for patients who had amputations or need surgery for brain injuries and severe burns suffered in the latest attacks, according to staff.

Chest tubes — meant to be disposed of after one use — are running out, so doctors are sterilizing them and using them again and again.

The World Health Organization, which has staff members in southern Gaza, said on Tuesday that hospitals there were facing “an acute shortage of medical supplies and equipment,” and “an imminent water and sanitation crisis.”

The limited water supply is putting the lives of more than 3,500 patients in 35 hospitals across the strip at immediate risk, the agency added.

Basil al-Weheidi, a retired official with the United Nationals Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, left his home in Gaza City for Deir al-Balah with his wife, children and extended family to comply with the Israeli evacuation order. But they feel little safer in the southern zone, he said.

“There was so much bombing in our neighborhood around us; and there’s still bombing around us here — it feels close,” Mr. al-Weheidi said by telephone as he charged his phone in his car.

“I can’t tell you exactly where it is, though — we don’t have any internet. We’re in the middle of it all, and we have no idea what’s going on.”

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The hospital strike claims need to be assessed with caution. Inflammatory claims related extreme events such as this require that we don't jump to conclusions and let the evidence play out. Atrocity propaganda assessments should work the same whether the claims relate to Hamas or Israeli actions.  

Agreed.  I was asking for sources to see if anyone besides the IDF was stating Hamas misfire.   

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PSA

For those wanting to avoid Twitter bullshit, I'm finding the Live Update page from Haaretz to be helpful. Their updates are coming in fast and furious. I'm not posting the link because the URL changes periodically with major news. 

Go to the Haaretz homepage: https://www.haaretz.com/ and click the below. Refresh as needed. No paywall.

image.png.2bd9c6d638b5bd60599d0abe9f286efb.png 

 
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I think there is close to zero chance that Israel would/did intentionally target the hospital, and I have no doubt that a good number of Hamas (or equal) rockets malfunction and land in Gaza.  But, I have never heard of a Palestinian rocket capable of such damage/death toll.

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1 minute ago, Tonesky said:

I think there is close to zero chance that Israel would/did intentionally target the hospital, and I have no doubt that a good number of Hamas (or equal) rockets malfunction and land in Gaza.  But, I have never heard of a Palestinian rocket capable of such damage/death toll.

I tend to agree with everything but the zero chance part here. The rhetoric out of the Israeli leadership doesn't create a lot of warm fuzzies to me. But as far as the boom and the damage, it might be quite possible that loaded with fuel that it did not have a chance to expend that kind of fireball is possible?

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38 minutes ago, Tonesky said:

I think there is close to zero chance that Israel would/did intentionally target the hospital, and I have no doubt that a good number of Hamas (or equal) rockets malfunction and land in Gaza.  But, I have never heard of a Palestinian rocket capable of such damage/death toll.

It could easily make a fireball that big if there were munitions stored at the hospital. 

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4 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

It begins to sound like you know more about this than I do, my friend. As I was refreshing my memory about this long-ago read passage in Thucydides and long-ago taken classes, the pragamatism of the Mytilene discussion is not reported on again. I think the argument about future opponents/rebels fighting to the end which would make future rebellions more difficult to deal with stands as the more reasonable consideration.

The Melian debate is the follow-up to the more punitive side of the equation. The moral force of leniency is absent in the discussion and it's all about making an example of Melos whom had tried to be neutral in the Peloponnesion war between Sparta and Athens. The Athenians, as I think you know, completed the siege and put all the men to the sword and enslaved the rest.

Refreshing my memory, I opened wikipedia and will rely on the below for concise analysis:

image.png.5b0d40af50ecd8cfd08d11f1491d31c9.png

The US seems to lean more towards the Athens of the Melian Dialogue. We're aggressive with military bases and forces all over the world. Our civic discourse is filled with worries about looking weak and keeping everybody else frightened. Since the Marshall Plan and the rebuilding of Japan (enlightened self-interest, both), who has ever benefitted from a US invasion?

We don't care about civilian casualties from our use of explosive attack. We killed tens of thousands in Iraq.

So now, Israel. They've gone from something akin to a city-state to a local military giant and empire builder. Their taking Palestine the same way we took our continent. Treaty> Illegal settlements > Calling resistance savage and uncalled for > Send in the army to formalize the settlements.

Sure, there'll be a little guilt. We feel a little about enslaving other people or wiping them out, but it's transient.

Now that I'm writing too long, another thought occurs to me. We and Israel always claim moral authority. We had it in WW2 and view all wars as WW2. That authority is long gone. So it may be with Israel. Once the world placed the Jews in that spot, they had no choice but to fight.

It was once for simple survival whether one thinks they should have been given that land or not. Now? Not so much. 

I went on a Ancient Greek history a few different times and I am fresh off of finally reading Anabasis for myself.   From what I recall, we tend to think of the Mytilene second ship as a moment of sobriety after waking up to the horror of the drunken mass hysteria/blood lust that he demos felt.   While there does seem some semblance of truth, their treatment of the Mytilenes was still fairly harsh, taking all of their farm land, ships, foreign assets, and tearing down their walls.   The Mytilene's were trying to become the masters of the Island, and they were willing to trade one master (Athens) for another (Sparta not realizing how much the Spartans were willing to sell out the Anatolian Greeks in the process).    In the end, they recovered, and revolted from Athens and went over to Sparta.  

In the case of Melos, the Athenians established a new colony there but it was overthrown later and Sparta restored the survivors and took over.

What is interesting about Athens is that in the beginning they were relatively good to the conquered (allowed them to leave), but as the war dragged on, they became hardened and more brutal.  I think these two cities are good examples of this progression of brutality.   It was thought that their kindness of the defeated made them look weak, and encouraged more revolts so they reasoned they should be cruel in order to be respected, but I think this is just dissonance.  (In contrast, Sparta was consistent with their brutality from the start.)   Rome does comes to this point as well and decided to eradicate all life in Carthage and Corinth in the same year.  The level of death and brutality even got to the field commanders, IIRC.   Those acts did pacify their respective regions.    Sparta was a bunch of olds, Athens were broke dicks, and Macedon lost the 4th Macedon war 2 years earlier.  The destruction of Corinth ended Ionian and Macedon Greek resistance.   Anatolians still had a lesson to learn.    

Ah well, back to our regularly scheduled programming and me providing jerk-off gifs to Axiom in the other thread.

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This is a very vigorous form of self-defense we're seeing here.

52 minutes ago, Tonesky said:

I think there is close to zero chance that Israel would/did intentionally target the hospital,

Was it accidentally targeted? Just a sad case of collateral damage? Does that really make a difference?

I'm totally done with the Israel mythology of innocent victimhood. I want the US to have no connection whatsoever with this slaughter. How much better are we than Iran supporting Hamas or Hezbollah? 

Maybe our rationalizations about our own tendency to blow up non-combatants make it easier to stomach what Israel is doing. "Hey man, we weren't really aiming directly at them!" Not for me. 

Political expediency will prevent this from being considered, but I'd want to give Israel an ultimatum to either immediately desist in this outrage or face immediate suspension of all US aid. If they persist beyond that, recall our ambassador. 

I've lost all respect for the State of Israel. I hope the good people of that country can break through the blood lust of their worst people. 

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33 minutes ago, Tonesky said:

There is zero chance Israel intentionally targeted a hospital. 

History would suggest otherwise. There have been plenty of attacks and raids into hospitals in the WB, both recently and further in the past. I mean, not quite like a bomb on the shit, but there doesn't seem to me to be any reason to dismiss the targeting of a hospital right out. Let the investigations play out, imo. The IDF says lots of bullshit in the moment, that later gets proven wrong by independent investigations, see for example Shireen Abu Akleh's murder. Her funeral incidentally triggered an IDF assault on the hospital they were removing her casket from. 

Edited by Anastasis
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1 hour ago, Tonesky said:

There is zero chance Israel intentionally targeted a hospital. 

 

12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

History would suggest otherwise. There have been plenty of attacks and raids into hospitals in the WB, both recently and further in the past. I mean, not quite like a bomb on the shit, but there doesn't seem to me to be any reason to dismiss the targeting of a hospital right out. Let the investigations play out, imo. The IDF says lots of bullshit in the moment, that later gets proven wrong by independent investigations, see for example Shireen Abu Akleh's murder. Her funeral incidentally triggered an IDF assault on the hospital they were removing her casket from. 

I have never suggested Israel is without sin, but none of this remotely adds up to a history that suggests targeting a hospital with a missile - intentionally murdering hundreds of civilians. 

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Shumer.

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JERUSALEM, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Sunday that the chamber would push through a military aid package to help Israel in its war against the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

"We will work to move this aid through the Senate ASAP, and the Israeli leaders made it clear to us they need the aid quickly," said Schumer during a trip to Israel.

 

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AIPAC spent $2.2 million on federal lobbying from January through September of this year, according to filings with Congress.

It also started a political action committee last election cycle. It brought in nearly $19 million in donations during the 2022 campaigns, and so far this cycle had reported $10.5 million in donations through Aug. 31.

The group has sent large donations to the Republican National Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as donations to individual candidates on both sides of the aisle, Federal Election Commission reports show.

 

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/pro-israel-groups-ramp-up-lobbying-as-schumer-pushes-for-war-aid

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Save for a moment laying blame for the explosion at the hospital, here's some background on it.

The Gaza hospital where hundreds were reported killed is a mainstay for Palestinians.

The Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, where Palestinian authorities say hundreds of people were killed by an explosion on Tuesday, has a long history in the region.

The hospital is in the southern part of Gaza City and has long operated amid conflict, contending with border clashes and financial and practical obstacles arising from the political situation. But since the war between Israel and Hamas began following the deaths of more than 1,400 people in Israel during Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, the institution has found itself in the middle of a military operation and under fire.

On Saturday, rocket fire injured four staff members, according to the hospital, prompting the Most Rev. Justin Welby, the archbishop of Canterbury, to call for the reversal of Israel’s order for Palestinians to evacuate from the north of Gaza ahead of a planned ground offensive. “Hospitals and patients in Gaza are in grave danger,” he warned, adding that “they are facing catastrophe.”

After the blast on Tuesday, the archbishop said, “I mourn with our brothers and sisters — please pray for them,” in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

In addition to serving the sick, the hospital has also been serving as a shelter for Palestinians who have nowhere to go amid the chaos. After Israel called for Palestinians to evacuate the area, many civilians were sheltering at the hospital before it was hit.

The hospital is operated by the Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem, which also runs schools and clinics in Palestine, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon. It was founded in 1882 by medical missionaries from the Church of England and currently operates under the authority of the Anglican Episcopal Church.

Gaza’s population is mostly Muslim, as is Ahli Arab’s staff, and, despite the hospital’s Christian roots, it serves people of all faiths. In a 2018 interview with the Episcopal News Service, Suhaila Tarazi, the hospital’s director, said doctors and staff there are working “in the most difficult and gloomy situation.”

Now, that situation has become far more dire. In a statement on Tuesday, the Episcopal Church in Jerusalem condemned the strike on the hospital.

“Gaza remains bereft of safe havens,” the statement said.

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A JDAM is not a bomb or a rocket or a missile. It is a kit that is installed on a gravity bomb and turns it into a guided munition. JDAM kits can go on a lot of unguided gravity bombs, as we’ve seen in Ukraine. 
 

Listening to the sound is irrelevant because depending on what it is strapped to, where you are, and any number of factors. And you can’t see the actual projectile in any of the very dark videos. 

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15 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Listening to the sound is irrelevant because depending on what it is strapped to, where you are, and any number of factors. And you can’t see the actual projectile in any of the very dark videos. 

Have you seen the confirmed videos of the attack?

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All the videos are dark, because it was night. There is one that showed a barrage of rockets from Gaza followed by a large explosion. 
 

Anyone saying “this looks like a JDAM” is full of shit absent freeze framed examination of stills that show the projectile. I haven’t seen those, anyone who has can provide them. The only place I’ve seen the conclusive “this is a JDAM” are questionable accounts, comparing sounds, often with identical text to other questionable accounts.
 

More on JDAMS:  Israel has JDAM kits that attach to three sizes of gravity bombs that deliver different sizes of warhead from 500-2000 lbs.  There are also plenty of photos of Israeli jets sortieing without the JDAM kits attached, just the gravity bombs. Those would also make a nice noise when released from an F-16 or F-15 at speed and the resulting explosion would look just the same as one with the kit attached. A gravity bomb would also be more likely to go off course and hit, say, a non-mil target, a bomb with a JDAM kit is not likely to miss. 
 

In ordinary circumstances there would be an investigation that is unlikely to happen. We are rather more likely to see better evidence released by Israel (and maybe leaked by the United States) since they have the various intelligence capabilities to time rocket launches with the explosion. There will be no on the ground investigation that gives any confidence, especially since there are fragments of Israeli ordnance all over Gaza already. 
 

But the bottom line is: anyone saying “it’s JDAM” as of this moment is full of shit and dissembling unless there are some real-time images that haven’t been shared yet. Likewise, it’s not conclusive that it was a Palestinian rocket. 

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31 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

But the bottom line is: anyone saying “it’s JDAM” as of this moment is full of shit and dissembling unless there are some real-time images that haven’t been shared yet. Likewise, it’s not conclusive that it was a Palestinian rocket. 

Upthread you were speculating the fireball was the result of secondary explosions of munitions stored at the hospital, so please spare us the “full of shit unless there are real time images” nonsense. 
 

No one is talking from a position of incontrovertible evidence here. 

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Ok, then why

Quote

 

Social media accounts belonging to the State of Israel and the Israeli ambassador to the US appear to have deleted a video on posts claiming that a rocket fired from within Gaza caused the deadly explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City.

The video showed a barrage of rockets being fired, with one appearing to go off-course in a downward trajectory, followed by the flash of an apparent explosion.

Both accounts edited their posts after Aric Toler, a journalist with the New York Times visual investigations team, questioned the time stamps on the video.

Those time stamps indicated that the video was recorded at least 40 minutes after the explosion at the hospital was first publicly reported, Toler said.

It was not clear if the video was removed from the Israeli accounts on X as a result of Toler’s analysis.

Both Israeli accounts kept the original text in their posts following the edit, which repeated the Israeli military’s previous statement that the strike on the hospital was the result of an off-course rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group.
 

 

 

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

I applauded Biden going when he was meeting with all sides. Now that it is off meeting with the Arab leaders I don't want him to go. I am all in favor of diplomacy, but this will appear as if we only spoke to Israel and that dickhead Bibi. 

 

If Biden going has any chance of de escalation it is worth it. 

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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If Biden going has any chance of de escalation it is worth it. 

Agree, but don't that happening at this point. Who ever hit the Hospital has sparked the region. The cancellations are the issue. He can call Bibi and say what he has to say. Meeting with the Arab leaders was key to this trip. Sadly I don't think anyone is really in the mood to talk. 

Oh, and they fucked up a McDonalds. Why never a Burger King? 

 

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Agree, but don't that happening at this point. Who ever hit the Hospital has sparked the region. The cancellations are the issue. He can call Bibi and say what he has to say. Meeting with the Arab leaders was key to this trip. Sadly I don't think anyone is really in the mood to talk. 

Oh, and they fucked up a McDonalds. Why never a Burger King? 

 

Might be related:

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/free-meals-israeli-soldiers-divide-mcdonalds-franchises-over-israel-hamas-war-2023-10-17/

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4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

All the videos are dark, because it was night. There is one that showed a barrage of rockets from Gaza followed by a large explosion. 
 

Anyone saying “this looks like a JDAM” is full of shit absent freeze framed examination of stills that show the projectile. I haven’t seen those, anyone who has can provide them. The only place I’ve seen the conclusive “this is a JDAM” are questionable accounts, comparing sounds, often with identical text to other questionable accounts.
 

More on JDAMS:  Israel has JDAM kits that attach to three sizes of gravity bombs that deliver different sizes of warhead from 500-2000 lbs.  There are also plenty of photos of Israeli jets sortieing without the JDAM kits attached, just the gravity bombs. Those would also make a nice noise when released from an F-16 or F-15 at speed and the resulting explosion would look just the same as one with the kit attached. A gravity bomb would also be more likely to go off course and hit, say, a non-mil target, a bomb with a JDAM kit is not likely to miss. 
 

In ordinary circumstances there would be an investigation that is unlikely to happen. We are rather more likely to see better evidence released by Israel (and maybe leaked by the United States) since they have the various intelligence capabilities to time rocket launches with the explosion. There will be no on the ground investigation that gives any confidence, especially since there are fragments of Israeli ordnance all over Gaza already. 
 

But the bottom line is: anyone saying “it’s JDAM” as of this moment is full of shit and dissembling unless there are some real-time images that haven’t been shared yet. Likewise, it’s not conclusive that it was a Palestinian rocket. 

The attack occurred at 6:59PM local time

 

Here is video of a newscast whose feed was live at the time of the attack (bottom right shows the time of day, as indicated in the Grant Smith Ellis tweet). The area of Gaza City in which the hospital was located was experiencing airstrikes, and there's no ground-to-air weaponry, "failed" or otherwise. At 4:23 of the video, when the anchor is in a split screen speaking with various correspondents, the first of several strikes in the same vicinity can be seen.
 

I have a hard time believing anything besides the most likely explanation, which is that the same hospital Israel had shelled days ago was targeted by an airstrike.

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3 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Agree, was just a comment. Saw that earlier. Um, you want me to go to war and you send me a squished Big Mac? Nah, can I get some falafel and hummus. 

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