2020 House election thread

[cactusflinthead 27626]

If there's one already I didn't see it. 

 

[TexArcher 38823]

I'd really like to see Will Hurd out.  Guy voted in line with Trump's position 97% of the time and voted against a House resolution to request 10 years of Trump's tax returns.  He's a sycophant.

But, oh yeah, he's concerned about cyber attacks.  Eye roll.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Mike Li asked if since Kenny Marchant wasn't on there if he was considering retiring. Shrug. Dunno. 

Mike Burgess is another I'd like to see gone. And while we're wishing maybe someone with a clue can run against Gohmert. 

Aww reality stinks. Gohmert is behind the Pine Curtain. He's going to have to do something irredeemable like hug Obama. 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

I hope those of y’all that live in that spunk truck’s district fight like hell - donate, volunteer, canvas, stand on street corners and scream - to defeat him in 2020.

I pledge to send $100 to the Democratic candidate who runs against him.

Fuck that guy.

[Foggy Notion 1202]

11 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I hope those of y’all that live in that spunk truck’s district fight like hell - donate, volunteer, canvas, stand on street corners and scream - to defeat him in 2020.

I pledge to send $100 to the Democratic candidate who runs against him.

Fuck that guy.

Spunk truck?

I’m not gonna be able to get that image out of my head. It sounds hideous and totally base, but it really does roll off the tongue quite nicely. 

Spunk truck. I can’t stop saying it in my head. I’m gonna have to find a way to incorporate that into some conversation later today. Going out to dinner with some friends later. I’ll be looking to use it all night. 

So yeah, I’m in the portion of Austin that sits in the spunk truck’s district. What a fucking embarrassment that guy is. 

One more time... Spunk truck.

[gmr548 16681]

Nice to see so many Texas reps on that list. Several of them are on the DNC's priority target list. Yes, the media blitz in 2020 will be annoying, but this state will be much better off as the Tea Party/Trumpkin Rs see their positions become liabilities - see this lege session as proof.

I live in McCaul's district - gerrymandered to shit. I live in NW Austin, 183/Breaker and it is the same district as my girlfriend's parents... In Cypress, NW Harris  County. But a different district from my mom, ten minutes away at Parmer/Mopac. Fucking joke. He is among the wealthiest congressmen and the definition of a swampy partisan hack in it to enrich himself. Was pleasantly surprised how close Siegel came - just 13k votes. I believe he is running it back in 2020; I know the low hanging fruit has been picked and those last 13k votes will be tough to get, but I'm excited to work towards making it happen.

[Voldemort86 2259]

The house almost certainly won’t be competitive next year.

 

the house hasn’t flipped in consecutive elections since 1954 and the house hasn’t flipped in a presidential election year since 1952.

[gmr548 16681]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The house almost certainly won’t be competitive next year.

 

the house hasn’t flipped in consecutive elections since 1954 and the house hasn’t flipped in a presidential election year since 1952.

In recent history, Rs have also not done very well in Presidential years. The increased turnout in those elections typically favors Ds. Obviously there will be some individual seat flips, but it is overwhelmingly likely the Ds retain control. I don't even think the net change will be that big. 2020 will be all about Trump, and we saw a sorting of house districts largely along that same line in 2018. I'd be surprised if the net change in the D-R margin was in the double digits either way.

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

In recent history, Rs have also not done very well in Presidential years. The increased turnout in those elections typically favors Ds. Obviously there will be some individual seat flips, but it is overwhelmingly likely the Ds retain control. I don't even think the net change will be that big. 2020 will be all about Trump, and we saw a sorting of house districts largely along that same line in 2018. I'd be surprised if the net change in the D-R margin was in the double digits either way.

Off the top of my head, there’s a house seat in Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Virginia likely to flip back to the repubs, but we can offset that by finally beating will Hurd with presidential turnout and making other gains in Texas. I agree with you tho. I really don’t care what happens as long as the democrats maintain control and I think it will be a single digit seat margin either way.

the democrats will probably be in better shape after redistricting. They REALLY got screwed after the shitty tea party election of 2010. The repubs took full advantage of it and drew the most crooked maps I’ve ever seen.

[bad_teammate 13482]

2018 results...

McCaul (R) beat Siegal (D) by 4
Olson (R) beat Sri (D) by 4
Hurd (R) beat Ortiz Jones (D) by 0.5 (THANKS BETO!)
Carter (R) beat Hegar (D) by 3

Nice.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/05/30/texas-2020-congressional-races-have-2018-candidates-and-fresh-faces/

The situation in the 24th District is emblematic of a broader trend across the state. As national Democrats zero in on Texas as the linchpin of their 2020 strategy, the primaries are filling up with a mix of candidates who ran last time and new entrants encouraged by the post-2018 political landscape.

[triplehorn 2664]

The New Trove of Secret Gerrymandering Files Will Be a Nightmare for the GOP

 

"In February, attorneys challenging North Carolina’s legislative gerrymander notified the defendants, a group of Republican leaders in the legislature, that they’d issued a subpoena. The lawyers had asked Stephanie Hofeller Lizon to provide “any storage device” containing redistricting-related documents left by her estranged father, Thomas Hofeller, a Republican consultant who specialized in gerrymandering. Republican legislators did not object, and Lizon turned over the requested materials: 18 thumb drives and four hard drives containing more than 75,000 files—many related to her father’s consulting work. The voting rights attorneys had uncovered a vast trove of information exposing the inner workings of GOP gerrymandering across the country.

Upon learning what their opponents had obtained, attorneys for Republican lawmakers went to court to try to seize the files. But it was too late. Voting rights advocates had lawfully acquired the materials, even after having given Republicans a chance to object. And on Thursday, they dropped the first bombshell from Hofeller’s hard drives: A key portion of a 2015 memowritten by Hofeller appeared in a draft Justice Department letter used to justify the Trump administration’s efforts to add a citizenship question to the census. Hofeller’s memo, which explains why the citizenship question would boost the voting power of “Republicans and non-Hispanic Whites,” indicates that administration officials lied about the reason for adding the question.

There are sure to be more revelations from the Hofeller files to come, driving home the downside of using a single consultant to mastermind redistricting across multiple states and decades.

For years, Hofeller held an office at the Republican National Committee on Capitol Hill. He worked as both its official redistricting director and, later, as a paid consultant. He traveled the country to teach Republican lawmakers how to gerrymander their districts to create permanent GOP legislative majorities. (Ironically, he incorporated warningsabout keeping all of this work under wraps, like “Make sure your security is real,” “Make sure your computer is in a PRIVATE location,” and “The ‘e’ in email stands for ‘eternal.’ ”) Hofeller also personally helped to draw some of the country’s most egregiously gerrymandered maps, including those in Alabama, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. (He likely had a hand in more maps than we currently know.) But Hofeller devoted the most time to North Carolina, where he created lopsided Republican majorities in a state evenly divided between the parties.

cont."

 

Better damn make it a GOP nightmare.

[Js1 86964]

Neil Gorsuch: Nah, looks okay to me.  Partisan gerrymandering approved! 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

On 6/3/2019 at 10:30 AM, triplehorn said:

The New Trove of Secret Gerrymandering Files Will Be a Nightmare for the GOP

 

"In February, attorneys challenging North Carolina’s legislative gerrymander notified the defendants, a group of Republican leaders in the legislature, that they’d issued a subpoena. The lawyers had asked Stephanie Hofeller Lizon to provide “any storage device” containing redistricting-related documents left by her estranged father, Thomas Hofeller, a Republican consultant who specialized in gerrymandering. Republican legislators did not object, and Lizon turned over the requested materials: 18 thumb drives and four hard drives containing more than 75,000 files—many related to her father’s consulting work. The voting rights attorneys had uncovered a vast trove of information exposing the inner workings of GOP gerrymandering across the country.

Upon learning what their opponents had obtained, attorneys for Republican lawmakers went to court to try to seize the files. But it was too late. Voting rights advocates had lawfully acquired the materials, even after having given Republicans a chance to object. And on Thursday, they dropped the first bombshell from Hofeller’s hard drives: A key portion of a 2015 memowritten by Hofeller appeared in a draft Justice Department letter used to justify the Trump administration’s efforts to add a citizenship question to the census. Hofeller’s memo, which explains why the citizenship question would boost the voting power of “Republicans and non-Hispanic Whites,” indicates that administration officials lied about the reason for adding the question.

There are sure to be more revelations from the Hofeller files to come, driving home the downside of using a single consultant to mastermind redistricting across multiple states and decades.

For years, Hofeller held an office at the Republican National Committee on Capitol Hill. He worked as both its official redistricting director and, later, as a paid consultant. He traveled the country to teach Republican lawmakers how to gerrymander their districts to create permanent GOP legislative majorities. (Ironically, he incorporated warningsabout keeping all of this work under wraps, like “Make sure your security is real,” “Make sure your computer is in a PRIVATE location,” and “The ‘e’ in email stands for ‘eternal.’ ”) Hofeller also personally helped to draw some of the country’s most egregiously gerrymandered maps, including those in Alabama, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. (He likely had a hand in more maps than we currently know.) But Hofeller devoted the most time to North Carolina, where he created lopsided Republican majorities in a state evenly divided between the parties.

cont."

 

Better damn make it a GOP nightmare.

I would piss on his grave and probably kick the damn stone down if I knew where it was.

 

pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan have some NASTY gerrymanders.  North Carolina is very competitive, yet repubs capture about 9 of the 13 US house seats in the state. Pennsylvania’s map was so fucking awful that it got thrown out by the courts. It was another competitive state where the GOP had roughly 11 of the 16 seats on lock down. Not even competitive elections.

 

the current Michigan map is awful. The repubs get about 8-9 seats without even trying out of the 14 or so and they’re actually a minority in that state. That’s why it was so crucial to win the governor in race in Pennsylvania ( did), Michigan ( did), Minnesota ( did), and Wisconsin ( did). All of those states pro gop gerrymanders are going by the wayside , and in Minnesota’s case, we will be protected from a terrible gerrymander. The governor’s will be in place during the current round of redistricting and can veto the maps if necessary.

[Voldemort86 2259]

On 6/3/2019 at 4:26 PM, cactusflinthead said:

 

Fuck yeah.

 

anyone who falls the GOP’s line of “THE DEMOCRATS ARE ALL SOCIALIST” has an IQ under 70 and isn’t worth your time.

[gmr548 16681]

Just one poll, and far out, but lends credence to the idea that 2018 was a re-sort and we're not likely to see a lot of change in 2020.

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

I actually think the Dems may pick up 1 or 2 seats net.

 

[Hornius Emeritus 12781]

At the Molly Awards, Marc Winkelman  just announced that Wendy Davis is running against Rep. Chip Roy. 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

14 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

At the Molly Awards, Marc Winkelman  just announced that Wendy Davis is running against Rep. Chip Roy. 

I thought she was from Dallas?

[GSU&UT 1799]

Been a few years now since I moved, but good lord does this look like one of the worst gerrymandered districts I've seen. Hope Wendy crushes this dipshit into dust, his margin of victory was very slim in 2018.

 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[gmr548 16681]

Probably gonna stay a Republican seat though.

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

Another challengers vs Marchant.  Valenzuela.  Marchant's seat can be flipped.

 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Marchant. Jan is trying it again. But, it's obvious that since she lost last time she is going to get some competition. 

I'm trying to work up some enthusiasm for any of them. 

yay.

Burgess. 

I don't know what to say. 

THERE IS NO ELVIS ANY GOTDAMWHERE!

The ferns. Sports Sturm named a team the fighting ferns. I'd like one of them to have a mission and some fire. Please. Someone run. He's an idiot. Who else goes on MSNBC and declares that the children locked up in cages can walk out any time they want. 

Carter,  Gohmert, Burgess

Dear God deliver us from idiots and assholes 

[RayDog 682]

I did an article a couple months back on the 71 closest house races that are currently in Republican hands. With democrats sitting at a generic +9 in 2018 and now I looked at +12 as the upper limit, and deleted many of the most entrenched republicans. In some close races I listed the winning percentage from 2018 to show how close they were to 50%. I also showed older congressman who are getting close to retirement and could possibly retire, or should be retired. Democrats have a lot of pick-up opportunities.

Name    District    2018%    Cook PVI    Note
Don Young    AK    6.6%    R+9    88 in 2021
French Hill     AR-2    6.3%    R+7    
David Schweikert    AZ-6    10.4%    R+9    
Doug LaMalfa    CA-1    9.8%    R+11    
Tom McClintock    CA-4    8.2%    R+10    
Paul Cook    CA-8    20.0%    R+9    78 in 2021
Devin Nunes    CA-22    5.4%    R+8    
Ken Calvert    CA-42    13.0%    R+9    68 in 2021
Duncan Hunter    CA-50    3.4%    R+11    indicted, Hunter 51.7%
Scott Tipton     CO-3    7.9%    R+6    Tipton 51.5%
Ted Yoho    FL-3    15.2%    R+9    66 in 2021
Bill Posey    FL-8    21.0%    R+11    74 in 2021
Dennis Ross    FL-15    6.0%    R+6    
Vern Buchanan    FL-16    9.2%    R+7    70 in 2021
Brian Mast    FL-18    8.6%    R+5    
Mario Díaz-Balart    FL-25    21.0%    R+4    
Rob Woodall    GA-7    0.2%    R+9    Woodall 50.07%
Rick W. Allen    GA-12    19.0%    R+9    70 in 2021
Steve King    IA-4    3.4%    R+11    King 50.4%, 72 in 2021
Mike Bost    IL-12    6.2%    R+5    Bost 51.6%
Rodney Davis    IL-13    0.8%    R+3    Davis 50.4%
Jackie Walorski    IN-2    9.6%    R+11    
Steve Watkins    KS-2    0.8%    R+10    Watkins 47.6%
Andy Barr    KY-6    3.2%    R+9    Barr 51.0%
Jack Bergman    MI-1    12.6%    R+9    74 in 2021
Justin Amash    MI-3    11.2%    R+6    
Fred Upton    MI-6    4.4%    R+4    Upton 50.2%, 68 in 2021
Tim Walberg    MI-7    7.6%    R+7    70 in 2021
Jim Hagedorn    MN-1    0.4%    R+5    Hagedorn 50.2%
Pete Stauber    MN-8    5.5%    R+4    Stauber 50.7%
Ann Wagner    MO-2    4.2%    R+8    Wagner 51.2%
Greg Gianforte    MT    4.6%    R+11    Gianforte 50.9%
George Holding    NC-2    5.5%    R+7    Holding 51.3%
Vacant    NC-3    100.0%    R+12    Ran unopposed 
Virginia Foxx    NC-5    14.0%    R+10    78 in 2021
Richard Hudson    NC-8    10.6%    R+8    
Vacant (Mark Harris)    NC-9    0.4%    R+8    Not certified, Harris 49.3%
Ted Budd    NC-13    6.0%    R+6    Budd 51.5%
Don Bacon    NE-2    1.2%    R+4    Bacon 51.0%
Chris Smith    NJ-4    12.3%    R+8    68 in 2021
Lee Zeldin    NY-1    6.1%    R+5    
Peter King    NY-2    6.6%    R+3    77 in 2021
Elise Stefanik    NY-21    13.9%    R+4    
Tom Reed    NY-23    9.8%    R+6    
John Katko    NY-24    6.2%    D+3    Clinton district
Chris Collins    NY-27    0.8%    R+11    indicted, Collins 49.3%, 71 in 2021
Steve Chabot    OH-1    4.4%    R+5    Chabot 51.3%, 68 in 2021
Mike Turner    OH-10    13.7%    R+4    67 in 2021
Troy Balderson    OH-12    4.2%    R+7    Balderson 51.4%
David Joyce    OH-14    10.4%    R+5    
Brian Fitzpatrick    PA-1    2.5%    R+1    Fitzpatrick 51.3%, Clinton district  
Scott Perry    PA-10    2.8%    R+6    Perry 51.3%
Mike Kelly    PA-16    4.3%    R+8    Kelly 51.5%, 72 in 2021
Joe Wilson    SC-2    11.1%    R+12    73 in 2021
Ralph Norman    SC-5    15.5%    R+9    68 in 2021
Ron Wright    TX-6    7.7%    R+9    68 in 2021
Michael McCaul    TX-10    4.3%    R+9    McCaul 51.1%
Randy Weber    TX-14    19.9%    R+12    68 in 2021
Bill Flores    TX-17    15.5%    R+12    67 in 2021
Chip Roy    TX-21    2.8%    R+10    Roy 50.2%
Pete Olson    TX-22    4.9%    R+10    Olson 51.4%
Will Hurd    TX-23    0.5%    R+1    Hurd 49.2%, Clinton district 
Kenny Marchant    TX-24    3.2%    R+9    Marchant 51.6%, 70 in 2021
Roger Williams    TX-25    8.7%    R+11    72 in 2021
John Carter    TX-31    2.9%    R+10    Carter 50.6%, 80 in 2021

 

[RayDog 682]

Oops I cut off a few.

Rob Wittman    VA-1    10.4%    R+8    
Denver Riggleman    VA-5    6.6%    R+6    
Jaime Herrera Beutler     WA-3    5.4%    R+4    
Cathy McMorris Rodgers    WA-5    9.6%    R+8    
Bryan Steil    WI-1    12.3%    R+5    
Glenn Grotham    WI-6    11.0%    R+8    66 in 2021

[Voldemort86 2259]

What’s the consensus here?

 

I think the democrats should be favorites to keep the house. Democrat turnout is always highest in presidential election years. The house hasn’t flipped in a presidential year since the 1950’s.

as long as the Dems hold onto the house, they should be in good shape. I recall after the anger filled tea party wave of 2010, republicans got to control more maps than ever. Some of those gerrymanders won’t be as extreme this time around because we’ve won some governorships. I doubt the map in 2020 could possibly be as bad for Dems as the 2010 decade was.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

It's still so early. We're the political junkies that can't get enough. Until the primaries are done and we see who's in it to run there's no telling. Kobach wins? Maybe it is a pick up. Collins sticks to her vote for Kavanagh and that hurts her? She's underwater on approval but what happens in the booth?

Still haven't given a dime to anyone. I'm probably not the only one. 

[David Dennison 19441]

25 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

What’s the consensus here?

I think the democrats should be favorites to keep the house. Democrat turnout is always highest in presidential election years. The house hasn’t flipped in a presidential year since the 1950’s.

as long as the Dems hold onto the house, they should be in good shape. I recall after the anger filled tea party wave of 2010, republicans got to control more maps than ever. Some of those gerrymanders won’t be as extreme this time around because we’ve won some governorships. I doubt the map in 2020 could possibly be as bad for Dems as the 2010 decade was.

That is an outstanding bit of political history. I did not know that.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[gmr548 16681]

What’s the consensus here?

 

I think the democrats should be favorites to keep the house. Democrat turnout is always highest in presidential election years. The house hasn’t flipped in a presidential year since the 1950’s.

as long as the Dems hold onto the house, they should be in good shape. I recall after the anger filled tea party wave of 2010, republicans got to control more maps than ever. Some of those gerrymanders won’t be as extreme this time around because we’ve won some governorships. I doubt the map in 2020 could possibly be as bad for Dems as the 2010 decade was.

It's to early to give anything of real predictive value now, but what data there is points to the house remaining pretty stable. The national political environment still favors Ds but probably isn't quite as strong as the 2018 midterms - see the generic congressional ballot, where Ds have lost a bit of the lead. As of now, there hasn't been any change that would really help Ds pick off R seats that survived 2018, but conversely, not a lot to suggest any large scale movement of the seats the Ds flipped in 2018.

 

All in all, as of now, I'd be surprised if we saw a double digit net change either way. There are winnable pickups for both sides, but ultimately 2018 was a realignment in the House and the battle lines are largely the same in 2020.

 

Also, the House moving back to Rs is almost impossible. They need to flip dozens of seats in an election that will be a referendum on their man with 40 percent approval. Pretty confident that isn't happening.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/7/17/1872453/-Karen-Handel-s-comeback-bid-plagued-by-false-fundraising-claims-broken-calendars

She inflated her totals by counting last year's money which still put her well under 550K for this quarter. In short, she lies. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by cactusflinthead

[Js1 86964]

Bahahaha

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Yikes! You’ve got to figure most members of Congress raise at least $1,000 on inertia alone.

You have to actively try to not raise anything much less negative money.

[Js1 86964]

Can't even get a friend to donate $20 to break even? 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Steve King is broke too.

King’s comments, which came just months after he only won his general election by a 50-47 margin in what’s usually a safely red seat, also convinced congressional GOP leaders that it was time to drop him. National Republicans had spent over a decade tolerating King’s vehement racism and alliances with international white supremacists, but they stripped him of all his committee assignments in January. King remains committee-less six months later, and he’s also nearly cash-less. The incumbent has been a weak fundraiser for years, but the $18,000 war chest he had at the end of June was terrible even for him.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/7/19/1873041/-White-supremacist-Steve-King-s-campaign-barely-solvent-six-months-after-he-got-thrown-off-committees

[Js1 86964]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Great.  Chip Roy is beatable.  Wendy Davis is the one person that can't beat him.

[Bateshorn 9989]

On 5/27/2019 at 11:13 PM, gmr548 said:

Nice to see so many Texas reps on that list. Several of them are on the DNC's priority target list. Yes, the media blitz in 2020 will be annoying, but this state will be much better off as the Tea Party/Trumpkin Rs see their positions become liabilities - see this lege session as proof.

I live in McCaul's district - gerrymandered to shit. I live in NW Austin, 183/Breaker and it is the same district as my girlfriend's parents... In Cypress, NW Harris  County. But a different district from my mom, ten minutes away at Parmer/Mopac. Fucking joke. He is among the wealthiest congressmen and the definition of a swampy partisan hack in it to enrich himself. Was pleasantly surprised how close Siegel came - just 13k votes. I believe he is running it back in 2020; I know the low hanging fruit has been picked and those last 13k votes will be tough to get, but I'm excited to work towards making it happen.

One of several districts drawn to deny Austin a democrat in Congress.  The amount of work it took to crack Travis county is absurd. 

Wendy Davis is such a turd.

More broadly, the real races will be in state houses. With the Supreme court allowing gerrymandering to stand, if the democrats can hold/take a few statehouses and governorships, they will finally have a seat at the redistricting table for the first time since 1990.  The GOP lost the senate in NY.  There's a bunch of upstate GOP members who are about to be forced into districts together or have to introduce themselves to voters in the Bronx.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Bateshorn

[bernorange 8385]

On 7/9/2019 at 5:07 AM, RayDog said:

I did an article a couple months back on the 71 closest house races that are currently in Republican hands. With democrats sitting at a generic +9 in 2018 and now I looked at +12 as the upper limit, and deleted many of the most entrenched republicans. In some close races I listed the winning percentage from 2018 to show how close they were to 50%. I also showed older congressman who are getting close to retirement and could possibly retire, or should be retired. Democrats have a lot of pick-up opportunities.

Name    District    2018%    Cook PVI    Note
...

Randy Weber    TX-14    19.9%    R+12    68 in 2021

...

I am in Rep. Weber's district.  The only way he loses his seat is if another R primaries him and the probability of that happening is around 0.01%.  Shit can change if he were to do something egregiously stupid, but he's fairly quiet so no.  I don't see him retiring any time soon.

[Ghost of LL 15671]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

One of several districts drawn to deny Austin a democrat in Congress.  The amount of work it took to crack Travis county is absurd. 

Wendy Davis is such a turd.

More broadly, the real races will be in state houses. With the Supreme court allowing gerrymandering to stand, if the democrats can hold/take a few statehouses and governorships, they will finally have a seat at the redistricting table for the first time since 1990.  The GOP lost the senate in NY.  There's a bunch of upstate GOP members who are about to be forced into districts together or have to introduce themselves to voters in the Bronx.

I'm not crazy about Wendy Davis.  But I will recognize that she will be able to raise more money than Kopser was.  And that alone will help.

And here's another thing I wonder about--how different is the political landscape in 2020 from 2014 on her signature issue?  With Kavanaugh on the Court and with the anti-abortion bills in Alabama and Missouri, has the political calculus on that issue changed over the past six years?

And, perhaps more to the point, does it matter?  In our hyper-partisan era, does it matter who the Republican and who the Democrat is for a House seat?

[Guest Lobo]

Kopser laid so much groundwork for her, I certainly hope she appreciates that.  She'll raise more money, but he connected more with that part of Texas than she will.  That's just a fact.  And no, not because she's a woman you fucksticks.  He's more moderate. His private sector and military service stories are wildly compelling.  And he's fucking lethal in medium-sized groups.  She can win a lot of districts in Texas, and probably this one in another few cycles but not in 2020.  That said, I'm giving her money because Chip Roy looks like the financial advisor that won't invest in companies led by women.  

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

“It’s beyond parody that Wendy Davis is attempting to make her political comeback in a district she lost by 20 points last time around," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Bob Salera. "Texans resoundingly rejected Davis and her socialist agenda 5 years ago, and will do so again in 2020.”

 

God dammit I want Davis to win so badly. 

[Js1 86964]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Kopser laid so much groundwork for her, I certainly hope she appreciates that.  She'll raise more money, but he connected more with that part of Texas than she will.  That's just a fact.  And no, not because she's a woman you fucksticks.  He's more moderate. His private sector and military service stories are wildly compelling.  And he's fucking lethal in medium-sized groups.  She can win a lot of districts in Texas, and probably this one in another few cycles but not in 2020.  That said, I'm giving her money because Chip Roy looks like the financial advisor that won't invest in companies led by women.  

Chip Roy is a tumor that fell off Ted Cruz's ass and got elected to the House. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

26 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not crazy about Wendy Davis.  But I will recognize that she will be able to raise more money than Kopser was.  And that alone will help.

And here's another thing I wonder about--how different is the political landscape in 2020 from 2014 on her signature issue?  With Kavanaugh on the Court and with the anti-abortion bills in Alabama and Missouri, has the political calculus on that issue changed over the past six years?

And, perhaps more to the point, does it matter?  In our hyper-partisan era, does it matter who the Republican and who the Democrat is for a House seat?

Related to my post: we will see a D+ something wave in 2020  (I think the presidential year will tamp down the size of that wave).  Plus his district is changing.  Any generic D could beat him with those factors.  The one person that isn't a generic D is running.  She will be the one exception to the new truth that to does not matter who the individual candidate is.

[Bateshorn 9989]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not crazy about Wendy Davis.  But I will recognize that she will be able to raise more money than Kopser was.  And that alone will help.

And here's another thing I wonder about--how different is the political landscape in 2020 from 2014 on her signature issue?  With Kavanaugh on the Court and with the anti-abortion bills in Alabama and Missouri, has the political calculus on that issue changed over the past six years?

And, perhaps more to the point, does it matter?  In our hyper-partisan era, does it matter who the Republican and who the Democrat is for a House seat?

Honestly, it probably mostly comes down to district demographics.  Have enough D's moved into the hill country and enough olds died to find the 2.1 points she needs?

Edited July 22, 2019 by Bateshorn