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2020 House election thread

cactusflinthead

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

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There is speculation about Chelsea Clinton running for this seat and getting her start in politics. That would be interesting. 
In any case I hope someone younger wins as the boomers and older are seriously over-represented in the Democratic House.

Please no more Clintons for a while, unless it’s a George Clinton.
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27626

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Another safe R district retirement 

When asked for a comment on Rooney’s retirement, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Chris Pack wrote back just: “R+13.” In other words, it’s not a district the GOP is worried about losing

Congressman who won't rule out impeachment announces retirement

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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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In a reflection of the attention NE-2 is getting, Pelosi came to Omaha last night for a big fundraiser. As a journalist was driving home from the event, he got a text from local GOP that there would be announcement on some big Republican that was going to come. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Trump.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Tuco said:

In a reflection of the attention NE-2 is getting, Pelosi came to Omaha last night for a big fundraiser. As a journalist was driving home from the event, he got a text from local GOP that there would be announcement on some big Republican that was going to come. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Trump.

It’s getting attention because of the electoral vote.
 

2020 could be one of the closest ever in regard to EV.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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On 10/27/2019 at 7:07 AM, Tuco said:

In a reflection of the attention NE-2 is getting, Pelosi came to Omaha last night for a big fundraiser. As a journalist was driving home from the event, he got a text from local GOP that there would be announcement on some big Republican that was going to come. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Trump.

Would that be awkward for the incumbent? Refresh my memory, but didn't Sasse (R) specifically not endorse Trump? Has he reversed course?

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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The incumbent in that district is don bacon.

sasse is a Senator. 

Correct.  But still a valid question. Sasse has run to the cameras to demonstrate his criticism of Trump, and then run to the backdoor to kiss his ass and get an endorsement.  I think Bacon would rather pretend Trump doesn't exist.  He is caught between pissing off the Trumpsters and defending the indefensible.  He is smarmy enough to pull it off usually.    Below was an exception when he fell off that tightrope: 

(Facebook post 10/22) "I agree with Senator McConnell that our withdrawal from Syria compounds the disastrous legacy of Obama/Biden foreign policy that created chaos and epic human suffering across the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey must be held accountable for their invasion of Syria. Speaker Pelosi needs to put H.R. 4695 to a vote NOW. Our minimal ground forces in Syria were mainly in a support role to Kurd fighters and very seldom used in combat. Now, a void is developing where ISIS can reconstitute. Iran is now present in eastern Syria; trust has been broken with Kurds who did most of the fighting; and 7,000 ISIS detainees are at risk of being freed."

That was too obvious that he lacks the backbone to mention Trump in a criticism, and instead tried to deflect with a way too clumsy "but Obama."

Normally NE-2 is a heavy lean red district.  It went Obama in 2008, but was then gerrymandered in 2010.  In 2014 the incumbent Republican (Lee Terry) got a surprise primary challenger, who lost the primary, and then set up someone as third party entry to screw Terry.  It worked, and Ashford won.  Ashford then lost in 2016 to Bacon.  If it wasn't for Trump, Bacon could probably cruise a few more terms.  But, in the current political environment, it's one of the top 10 races.  I honestly don't know if a Trump visit helps Bacon's cause.  It will bring in money.  It will solidify the Trumpsters behind Bacon.  But, if shit goes south for Trump, he's got no shot of distancing himself. 

 

 

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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22 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Correct.  But still a valid question. Sasse has run to the cameras to demonstrate his criticism of Trump, and then run to the backdoor to kiss his ass and get an endorsement.  I think Bacon would rather pretend Trump doesn't exist.  He is caught between pissing off the Trumpsters and defending the indefensible.  He is smarmy enough to pull it off usually.    Below was an exception when he fell off that tightrope: 

(Facebook post 10/22) "I agree with Senator McConnell that our withdrawal from Syria compounds the disastrous legacy of Obama/Biden foreign policy that created chaos and epic human suffering across the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey must be held accountable for their invasion of Syria. Speaker Pelosi needs to put H.R. 4695 to a vote NOW. Our minimal ground forces in Syria were mainly in a support role to Kurd fighters and very seldom used in combat. Now, a void is developing where ISIS can reconstitute. Iran is now present in eastern Syria; trust has been broken with Kurds who did most of the fighting; and 7,000 ISIS detainees are at risk of being freed."

That was too obvious that he lacks the backbone to mention Trump in a criticism, and instead tried to deflect with a way too clumsy "but Obama."

Normally NE-2 is a heavy lean red district.  It went Obama in 2008, but was then gerrymandered in 2010.  In 2014 the incumbent Republican (Lee Terry) got a surprise primary challenger, who lost the primary, and then set up someone as third party entry to screw Terry.  It worked, and Ashford won.  Ashford then lost in 2016 to Bacon.  If it wasn't for Trump, Bacon could probably cruise a few more terms.  But, in the current political environment, it's one of the top 10 races.  I honestly don't know if a Trump visit helps Bacon's cause.  It will bring in money.  It will solidify the Trumpsters behind Bacon.  But, if shit goes south for Trump, he's got no shot of distancing himself. 

 

 

 

Bacon probably would’ve lost his seat last year, but the Bernie bro’s fucked that up. They nominated some fat chick who was extremely liberal. The moderate Ashford would’ve taken bacon in a rematch, given the political climate.

 

i wish Bernie and ocasio would only put socialists up for seats in extremely blue districts. Quit hurting the damn party. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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Kara Eastman got a higher percentage of the vote (49.0%), in a midterm election, against an incumbent, than Ashford did (47.7%) , in a presidential cycle, with the power of incumbency.  There was a libertarian running in 2016, but I assume that pulled more from Bacon than Ashford. 

I voted for Ashford in the primary, favoring the moderate route.  But he was a lousy candidate in 2014, 2016, and 2018.  In 2018, Eastman entered the race after Ashford had indicated he wasn't running.  Later, he decided he would enter.  Now his wife (Anne) is running in 2020.  As is Eastman and two others.   

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

The incumbent in that district is don bacon.

 

sasse is a Senator. 

Sorry, didn't explain that very well and it's the House thread so I should have. I wouldn't have thought NE would have more than one event that the President would attend and thus all local GOP representatives likely to attend. @Tuco's explanation makes sense, it so it's all good. Is the District 1 going to stay with Fortenberry or whatever his name is?

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Js1

Js1 86992

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NC House map (10 R - 3D) has been thrown out by state court for 2020.  

SCOTUS has already ruled they won't do anything about gerrymandering.  A fair map could easily be 7R - 6D instead.  Huge win for democracy! Republicans cry out in anguish.  The NC map is one of the most gerrymandered in the country - a state that is 50/50 at best and 55/45 R at worst was 75/25 in representation. 

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

NC House map (10 R - 3D) has been thrown out by state court for 2020.  

SCOTUS has already ruled they won't do anything about gerrymandering.  A fair map could easily be 7R - 6D instead.  Huge win for democracy! Republicans cry out in anguish.  The NC map is one of the most gerrymandered in the country - a state that is 50/50 at best and 55/45 R at worst was 75/25 in representation. 

Holy shit really?  Is this settled?  Will the repubs try to refer to the Supreme Court still?
 

I thought we were stuck with that monstrosity through 2020. Splendid news!  
 

it should also help the democrats keep the house because we will pick up at least 2 and probably 3 seats. I’ve always thought the state map should generally reflect the voter makeup of each state. 10-3 North Carolina when their presidential elections are always closely contested? What a fucking joke that was. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26178

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Maybe it was 60 minutes that did the story?

North Carolina A&T, a historically-black college, is divided down the middle in congressional districts.  You live in Dorm A, you are in district X, you live in Dorm B, you are in district Y.  

Can't have all those uppity, young, intelligent bleks electing somebody.  Gotta dilute those votes.  

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27626

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23 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Holy shit really?  Is this settled?  Will the repubs try to refer to the Supreme Court still?
 

I thought we were stuck with that monstrosity through 2020. Splendid news!  
 

it should also help the democrats keep the house because we will pick up at least 2 and probably 3 seats. I’ve always thought the state map should generally reflect the voter makeup of each state. 10-3 North Carolina when their presidential elections are always closely contested? What a fucking joke that was. 

Indeed, as the Supreme Court of the United States recently explained, partisan gerrymandering claims are not ‘condemn[ed] ... to echo in the void,’ because although the federal courthouse doors may be closed, ‘state constitutions can provide standards and guidance for state courts to apply,’” the judges wrote.

The Supreme Court ruling was 5-4, with the five more conservative judges voting to stay away from gerrymandering and the four more liberal judges wanting to strike down the maps of North Carolina as well as Maryland. Unlike North Carolina, the Maryland maps favored Democrats. In state court, the rulings have been unanimous from the three-judge panel, which has two Democrats and one Republican.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article236752543.html

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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The NC GOP is too stupid to realize that with congressional generic polling running D+9 going into 2020, now is the perfect time to make a few R+8 and R+9 districts into R+11 or R+12 districts to make the map a safe 8 seat Republican map with a couple swing seats. Now they might end up with a 7-6 map with 3 or 4 swing seats. 

It is sort of like the Texas GOP wanting all 7 Travis county gerrymandered seats including Doggett's. They never took Doggett's seat and now they could potentially lose 3 other seats around Austin because of their gerrymander. It would have been better for them in 2011 to carve most of Austin into a safe seat for Doggett, and gerrymander the rest. In 2021 they may need to make two safe democratic seats out of Travis and surrounding areas, but will probably stupidly try to make only one. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, RayDog said:

The NC GOP is too stupid to realize that with congressional generic polling running D+9 going into 2020, now is the perfect time to make a few R+8 and R+9 districts into R+11 or R+12 districts to make the map a safe 8 seat Republican map with a couple swing seats. Now they might end up with a 7-6 map with 3 or 4 swing seats. 

It is sort of like the Texas GOP wanting all 7 Travis county gerrymandered seats including Doggett's. They never took Doggett's seat and now they could potentially lose 3 other seats around Austin because of their gerrymander. It would have been better for them in 2011 to carve most of Austin into a safe seat for Doggett, and gerrymander the rest. In 2021 they may need to make two safe democratic seats out of Travis and surrounding areas, but will probably stupidly try to make only one. 

Those asshats are probably under political “ pressure” to try and stick it to democrats as hard as possible. They are all about drawing districts that they win by only 10 points or so. They try to spread their voters out to maximize the seats. 
 

im scared to see what some of the batshit crazy red states like Alabama and Missouri do with redistricting in 2020. Trump might be looking for ways to make those states 100% red like Arkansas with no democrats at all. Trump is a dirty little fucker.

 

republicans love minority majority rule while they try to keep us in the 1950’s. Fuck em.

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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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19 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Sorry, didn't explain that very well and it's the House thread so I should have. I wouldn't have thought NE would have more than one event that the President would attend and thus all local GOP representatives likely to attend. @Tuco's explanation makes sense, it so it's all good. Is the District 1 going to stay with Fortenberry or whatever his name is?

Fartenberry is now the preferred spelling.  

I would imagine he is pretty safe.  He won by 20 points in 2018.  Kate Bolz and Babs Ramsey are challenging.  I haven't met Kate, but she is a Dem state senator in a reddish-purple district.  Some are expecting her to make it a race.  I met Babs last weekend.  She seems smart and dedicated, but doesn't have a resume in politics and is transgender, which makes for an uphill battle in NE-1. 

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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30 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Fartenberry is now the preferred spelling.  

I would imagine he is pretty safe.  He won by 20 points in 2018.  Kate Bolz and Babs Ramsey are challenging.  I haven't met Kate, but she is a Dem state senator in a reddish-purple district.  Some are expecting her to make it a race.  I met Babs last weekend.  She seems smart and dedicated, but doesn't have a resume in politics and is transgender, which makes for an uphill battle in NE-1. 

 

I don't imagine Lincoln has changed all that much since I left, good or bad, so that sounds about right re: Ramsey. It's a shame, because there are some practical potential politicians that know how to get common sense reform and policy done that get completely overlooked for reasons such as that.

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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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On 10/27/2019 at 7:07 AM, Tuco said:

In a reflection of the attention NE-2 is getting, Pelosi came to Omaha last night for a big fundraiser. As a journalist was driving home from the event, he got a text from local GOP that there would be announcement on some big Republican that was going to come. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Trump.

Follow-up on this.  It was Lindsey Graham who was the big Republican who headlined the event.

CSB alert...

It was at a nice golf club out the West O burbs.  I did go out to protest it (one of like maybe 15-20).  We stood around for an hour or so, holding signs, mostly bullshitting.  I think it's fun to wave at the cars going by.  Sometimes you get scowls.  Sometimes it's the middle finger.  Sometimes it's a half-hearted confused wave back. Sometimes it's a thumbs up in support.  We got a lot more thumbs up than I would have expected from the neighborhood.  Anecdotal support for the idea that Trump is losing the burbs.  We even got a few people that were going into the clubhouse from golfing that came up to talk to us, and gave encouragement.  One guy came up, and my wife said something like "you know you can help out too" which took him back a little.  (She gave him a handout for a data TBD impeachment protest.) 

The cocktail hour was going to start, and we assumed Lindsey was already in.  My wife and I were getting ready to head out.  But, as I was standing there, I waved to the SUV driving by and got the half-hearted, just-smelled-a-fart wave back from some sad looking man in the passenger seat.  Hi, Lindsey.  He got out of the car in front of the building entrance, we yelled "Read ALL the transcripts" and "McCain was disappointed in you"...that kind of shit.   Packed up and headed home. 

My wife got a text from someone who stuck around longer.  Apparently the you-could-help club member came back out, and said he was allowed to be in the receiving line as a club member.  As he shook Lindsey's hand, he asked "why was your approach on the Clinton impeachment different than this one?"  Lindsey reacted, and left the receiving line.  Granted, this was a tale told by a drunk golfer who may have been trying to impress, but the story makes me smile regardless of its veracity. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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http://www.ncpolicywatch.com/2019/11/19/the-gops-latest-gerrymander-ought-to-be-the-last-straw-for-nc/
 

update on North Carolina redistricting. Republicans tried to draw a map which changes there grotesque 10-3 seat advantage statewide to a projected 8-5 advantage. Democrats are likely taking them back to court because after the democrats analyzed the map, there is still no way they can win the majority of seats regardless of the political environment. There is also this :

Quote

Simply put, Republican leaders didn’t engage in an adequate or genuine effort to draw fair maps. Instead, they tried to push the envelope as far as they thought they could get away with and produced maps almost sure to give the GOP 62% of the congressional delegation in a deeply purple state in which just 29.9% of voters are registered Republicans and 36.8% are registered Democrats.

And this......

Quote

A poor audio feed and stationary cameras located far away from legislators were not sufficient to claim transparency. What’s more, some lawmakers who were engaged in map-drawing frequently left and returned to the committee room without explanation. And a single public hearing held mid-morning on a weekday in Raleigh did not allow for people across the state to meaningfully comment on proposed voting districts.”

The GOP just can’t help themselves. These fuckers love gerrymandering. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Republicans are already starting to freak out about redistricting.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/02/republicans-state-elections-turmoil-redistricting-074783
 

they probably should worry a bit. Redrawing the maps after the tea party wave of 2010 was a dream come true for repubs. They got all they wanted.

 

the gerrymanders in Pennsylvania and North Carolina have been toppled. The Michigan one is probably next. Virginia’s map will be better too. I just want fair maps damnit!

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

I can live with going from 10-3 republican to 8-5 republican. They retained the power to draw the map by virtue of winning everything in North Carolina at the best possible time (2010). 
 

8-5 doesn’t feel like a screw job, but 10-3 really pissed me off. Made me want to kick NC republicans asses.

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Js1

Js1 86992

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, swraith said:

^^
Any reasonable probability the Dems net pickup additional seats in the House? Aka expand their majority?

Possibly.  At least +2 in NC. Possibly +2 or +3 in Texas (at least +1 for Hurd’s district). A couple may just flip back to the GOP but it could easily just be a wash or +1/2 Dem in the end 

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Possibly.  At least +2 in NC. Possibly +2 or +3 in Texas (at least +1 for Hurd’s district). A couple may just flip back to the GOP but it could easily just be a wash or +1/2 Dem in the end 

My best guess is a +5 - +8 margin either way. We haven’t seen a double digit house seat flip in a presidential cycle in the longest time. I’m too lazy to look up the year.

democrat likely gains 

+2 in NC

+2 in Texas

the reason I predict these gains is North Carolina’s map has been fixed and it more accurate reflects the voter makeup of the state. Texas has had way too many retirements for the Dems to not gain 1 seat. Hurds seat will flip and I’d bet on at least one more flipping with all of the gop retirements in Texas.

republican likely gains 

1 in Oklahoma 

1 in Utah 

1 in South Carolina 

1 in Iowa 

possibly 1 in New Jersey we might’ve over performed there.

 

the reason I predict those repub gains is those are very red districts and trump will be on the ballot. Turnout will be very high in those places and the democrats will likely be washed out.
 

no matter what a single digit gain either way is good for the democrats because the repubs need to gain 18 seats overall and in actuality that number is 20 because of the North Carolina map changes.

im watching the house very closely because if we can’t get rid of trump, we at least need to hold the house. I don’t want to see trump trying to pass legislation that only 30% of the country cares about  ( obamacare repeal and tax cuts for wealthy). Fuck that guy.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Js1

Js1 86992

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Posted (edited)

The Senate is more important tbh. SCOTUS. 

i find it hard to believe there would an abundance of Mark Kelly/Trump or McSally/Dem voters. Same with Gideon/Trump or Collins/Dem (not this time). Tillis/Dem or Dem/Trump. Etc.  The Senate *should* match the EC. 

3 + Veep is the goal. 

Edited by Js1
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13712

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22 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I feel like the move will have to be back to the right in the house because so many of the thin late breaks went left last time.   Some of those seats seem like they have to be lost.  

Yep. 2018 was a wave away from the gop and trump so it’s unlikely there could be that many new districts ready to flip blue. Most likely the gop could net a couple back.

2022 will be the crazy year with new district maps.

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

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I feel like the move will have to be back to the right in the house because so many of the thin late breaks went left last time.   Some of those seats seem like they have to be lost.  

Some, yes. Ds picked off some pretty red seats lost cycle that are bound to flip back. There are also a few pieces of low hanging fruit out there.

Overall I expect a slight R gain. Single digits. D majority isn't in any danger.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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