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2020 House election thread

cactusflinthead

By cactusflinthead
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#Blexit

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She's got my vote   

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Js1

Js1 85110

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70%? No way. Slam the under

2016 turnout was 54.7%. Even Obama’s win in 2008 was only 58.2%. We haven’t hit 60% turnout since 1968. 

2018 midterms was 53%. Hell, if 2020 reaches 57-58%, that would be huge. And still bad for the GOP. 

70%? The GOP wouldn’t even exist as the majority of non-voters are minority, young or poor. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26284

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Predictions are up to 70% turnout of eligible voters. If so Republicans are fucked. That will be much worse than 2018.

I’m not as skeptical as others about this. I’ve never seen people across the spectrum so fired up to vote in my life. 70% seems high in light of the elimination of polling places and confusion about the REALiD act but I could see 60-65%.
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Js1

Js1 85110

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Some House news:

Scott Taylor drops out of the Virginia Senate race to try and take back his old seat (VA-2) that he lost in the midterms - 2018 D+2
Pierce Bush (H.W.'s grandson) files for TX-22 - 2018 R+4 (Olson's old seat) -- he opted out of running for TX-7, HW's old seat
Ronny Jackson (of Trump's physician fame who had to drop out of his VA Secretary nomination) files for TX-13 - 2018 R+65 (Mac Thornberry's old seat)

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Uh oh. 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/maxine-waters-trump-loving-challenger-omar-navarro-arrested-for-stalking

But now, he faces significant legal troubles related to alleged stalking of his ex-girlfriend.

San Francisco police arrested Navarro on Saturday night, after he was allegedly seen near ex-girlfriend DeAnna Lorraine Tesoriero’s apartment. 

Tesoriero, a self-styled MAGA relationship expert who is running a quixotic congressional run of her own against Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), told The Daily Beast that she saw Navarro skulking outside her home late at night. Tesoriero said she then received a text from an unknown number with the message, “Bitch, I came to see you.”

 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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From article above: 

Quote

Navarro denied Tesoriero’s allegations and the charges against him, although he acknowledged to The Daily Beast that he was near Tesoriero’s apartment on Saturday night.  

“Men in this country get treated unjustly, too, you have to acknowledge that,” Navarro said. “Just because a woman says something doesn’t mean it’s true.” 

Two sentences which encapsulates Trump's appeal.  Dude gets caught red-handed stalking his ex, and he complains about how unjustly his particular demographic is treated.  Always the victim.  

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Js1

Js1 85110

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Ted Yoho technically succeeded "Go Gata"  lady after districts got redrawn after 2010.  She ran in a different district. 

Cook: R+9
538: R+20.47

This district does have Gata in it, so being open could make it competitive, but unlikely.  Another "safe" district where the incumbent doesn't want to be out of power any longer. 

Since 2012, this district has gone:

2012 - R 32.2
2014 - R 32.7
2016 - R 16.8
2018 - R 15.2

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Ted Yoho technically succeeded "Go Gata"  lady after districts got redrawn after 2010.  She ran in a different district. 

Cook: R+9
538: R+20.47

This district does have Gata in it, so being open could make it competitive, but unlikely.  Another "safe" district where the incumbent doesn't want to be out of power any longer. 

Since 2012, this district has gone:

2012 - R 32.2
2014 - R 32.7
2016 - R 16.8
2018 - R 15.2

These retirements still hurt republicans even tho they’re in safe districts right? They still gotta find a suitable candidate and invest some resources / time to make sure the seat is retained.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Long game. Have the judges now, so spend some money, get name recognition. Win or lose, when the next round of gerrymandering gets tossed out by the courts, swoop in and retake the House. (speeded up if there is a recession). Stepping down now while still having the Senate gives them time to regroup.

The votes against the voting rights act was a tell. They aren't giving up, they are just going to go underground for awhile.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

These retirements still hurt republicans even tho they’re in safe districts right? They still gotta find a suitable candidate and invest some resources / time to make sure the seat is retained.

I think so.  One thing it may do is generate splits on the local GOPs as multiple candidates rush to fill the voids.  Their support and their organizations may not carry over.  Their replacements could be flawed, either in policy or execution, which might marginally reduce support. This could serve to hurt the GOTV efforts for down ballot, which would impact top ballot.  Bigger deal in Florida than other states. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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lmao there was only one nay from a Texas Rep for the absurd 2020 NDAA, and it came from Louie fucking Gohmert.  Castro, Fletcher, Lee, hell even Doggett all voted in support.  Thanos could snap his fingers and zap the Texas Dem party out of existence today and I'm not sure anyone would even notice.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/116-2019/h672

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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10 hours ago, Fozzz said:

lmao there was only one nay from a Texas Rep for the absurd 2020 NDAA, and it came from Louie fucking Gohmert.  Castro, Fletcher, Lee, hell even Doggett all voted in support.  Thanos could snap his fingers and zap the Texas Dem party out of existence today and I'm not sure anyone would even notice.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/116-2019/h672

I’m gonna go out on a limb and state that if you and gohmert oppose it and Doggett supports it it must be the best fucking bill ever written. And I say that having no idea what is in the bill or what it’s about.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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14 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m gonna go out on a limb and state that if you and gohmert oppose it and Doggett supports it it must be the best fucking bill ever written. And I say that having no idea what is in the bill or what it’s about.

You need help.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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He isn't very popular, but he won his seat because the Republican candidate said that "diversity leads to Muslims killing Christians" and the NRCC withdrew its support. So now, Van Drew gets elected as a Democrat and then reneges by joining the party that believes "diversity leads to Muslims killing Christians." Some candidate needs to get up and running and whip his butt with a switch. The District had a Republican for a long time, so I hope the Democratic voters there get all hands on deck and get him out.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

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10 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


If you read his stances on most issues, it’s a wonder he ever considered himself a Democrat in the first place.

It got him elected. 
It’s not really a big leap.

Republicans in New Jersey don’t tend to do all that well.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Yeah, like I posted in earlier he’s a gutless pussy coward.

He’ll switch and then probably won’t even get out of the Republican primary because someone will come at him from even further right and use his history as a Democrat against him.

Good riddance ya rotten pap smear.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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14 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:


If you read his stances on most issues, it’s a wonder he ever considered himself a Democrat in the first place.

Except he voted with trump fewer times than so-called leftists like Tlaib or AOC. Odd that he votes as a far left progressive but now wants to switch sides.  Sounds like a back bencher that is just told what to do. This move gets him so pub, and allows the Dems to put a real politician on the ballot.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

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Except he voted with trump fewer times than so-called leftists like Tlaib or AOC. Odd that he votes as a far left progressive but now wants to switch sides.  Sounds like a back bencher that is just told what to do. This move gets him so pub, and allows the Dems to put a real politician on the ballot.

I saw that stat, but haven’t seen what made up that 7%. According to Wikipedia, he has a 100% rating from the NRA, voted against same-sex marriage, and is against raising the minimum wage. I get that he lives in a red area, but it’s strange that he ever pretended to be Democrat.
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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I'm interested to see how Pierce Bush performs in the Texas 22nd race next year. He faces a large GOP primary field but you also have to assume that he will be flush with as much money as he wants.

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/08/pierce-bush-houston-congressional-seat/

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_22nd_Congressional_District

https://time.com/5746685/pierce-bush-congress-texas/

It's always tough to run for a district where you have no ties and don't live there. Basically your message is that you belong in Congress and you're allowing the good people of the 22nd district the honor of having you as their rep.  Add in the fact that his qualification is his last name.

My hot take is that he makes the GOP run-off but loses.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I wonder if Abbott and Goeb will go after fletcher / Allred in redistricting.

I imagine the districts looked much easier to redraw prior to the 2016 election cycle, and especially after 2018. The Texas GOP will have to make some decisions on whether some areas voted Dem due to the unique characteristics of each election, or whether there is a blue trend.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Seems like half of the N.C. gop reps are quitting rather than face the voters in a less gerrymandered district. 

I’m so grateful that the map in North Carolina has gone from egregiously gerrymandered to just a normal republican gerrymander. A good performance for the Dems statewide in 2020 can go a very long way on both the state and national front.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m so grateful that the map in North Carolina has gone from egregiously gerrymandered to just a normal republican gerrymander. A good performance for the Dems statewide in 2020 can go a very long way on both the state and national front.

Yep.  Now the GOP can't crack Asheville or Winston-Salem-Greeensboro into multiple districts thereby giving the rural area the majorities. asheville's district will still most likely be red but the Dems will have a fighting chance.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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4 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

I’m trying to figure out if this is good or bad news for the Dems in general.

 

with that said, it’s hard to imagine the democrats getting a worse deal than they did after 2010 apportionment. The tea party wave really screwed them for just about an entire decade.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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To put this in perspective, California last had fewer than 27 congressional districts after the 1800 census, and PA last had fewer than 18 in 1790. Needless to say, their populations have grown a touch since then.

 

I could have sworn California was a part of Mexico for quite a few decades after the 1800 census.

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