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2020 House election thread

cactusflinthead

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She's got my vote   

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted

I know things look bleak for house democrats if Bernie is at the top of the ticket, but hopefully it’s a net positive in California at least. Good news has been scarce for democrats in February, but I have some here. 
 

Quote

https://ktla.com/2020/02/15/democrats-gaining-voter-edge-in-california-house-battles/

Democrats are gaining ground or actually building a sizable lead in the number of registered voters in the all important Orange County / competitive CA seats. 
 

Republicans hopefully will struggle to win anything at all in California while trump is on the ballot.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I know things look bleak for house democrats if Bernie is at the top of the ticket, but hopefully it’s a net positive in California at least. Good news has been scarce for democrats in February, but I have some here. 
 

Democrats are gaining ground or actually building a sizable lead in the number of registered voters in the all important Orange County / competitive CA seats. 
 

Republicans hopefully will struggle to win anything at all in California while trump is on the ballot.

Bernie will increase turnout which will help Democrats chances of gaining seats in the house.

Trust the polling not the corporate media pundits on this.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

You don’t think that moderate Dems could stay home and all independents would vote for trump?

The polling says independents prefer Bernie, as do the under 45 and minorities. A lot more potential voters will stay home if the nomination is taken from Bernie, assuming he has a plurality.

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

You don’t think that moderate Dems could stay home and all independents would vote for trump?

Regardless of who the Democratic nominee is, I just want to emphasize that there is zero, zero indication that Trump is going to get anything out of independents except his ass handed to him.

Edited by gmr548
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Tuco

Tuco 5093

Posted
Posted
On 2/18/2020 at 5:51 PM, Voldemort86 said:

You don’t think that moderate Dems could stay home and all independents would vote for trump?

My bigger concern with Bernie on the ballot is that non-Trumpist Republicans won't stay home, but will show up to vote against a "socialist."  That being said, I don't think Bernie hurts the ticket any more than any other candidate right now.  Social justice dems won't show up for Bloomberg.  Biden engenders no enthusiasm.  Pete does poorly with blacks and would turn-out the "Christian" vote who shudder at the thought of a gay President. Klob and Warren are women, and we still kind of suck as a society, as evidenced by the Trump presidency.  Polling shows Bernie does well against Trump - is on par with Biden and Bloomberg- and his organization/enthusiasm is much better than Biden or Bloomberg's base. 

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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12639

Posted
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Kinda wild... I've been following Gin and Tacos for pithy snippets on Facebook/Twitter for quite a while now. I never bothered reading any of his actual blog posts, though, until today, when I saw this thing on "worst yard sign ever" and it was from Chapel Hill. I've been following somebody who lives in the same town I do for I don't know how long, and I just now found out about it.

Anyway, NC-04 is uncompetitive. I voted for the Dem challenger, who is hoping to break into double digits on Tuesday, mostly for funzies, but also because he's a Bernie Bro. The incumbent is likely to win the General by almost as much as he's going to win the Primary -- they call this district "The Zoo" for a reason.

And, yeah, the Shaikh sign does kinda suck.

shaikh.jpg

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13712

Posted
Posted (edited)

If you're in Sheila Jackson Lee's district, vote for Marc Flores in the Dem primary.  Seems like a good guy that isn't above going door to door. His main message is that he nicely says that SJL sucked at her job for long enough and needs to go.

https://www.marcfloresforcongress.com/

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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48 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Kinda wild... I've been following Gin and Tacos for pithy snippets on Facebook/Twitter for quite a while now. I never bothered reading any of his actual blog posts, though, until today, when I saw this thing on "worst yard sign ever" and it was from Chapel Hill. I've been following somebody who lives in the same town I do for I don't know how long, and I just now found out about it.

Anyway, NC-04 is uncompetitive. I voted for the Dem challenger, who is hoping to break into double digits on Tuesday, mostly for funzies, but also because he's a Bernie Bro. The incumbent is likely to win the General by almost as much as he's going to win the Primary -- they call this district "The Zoo" for a reason.

And, yeah, the Shaikh sign does kinda suck.

 

Well, in the sign's defense, the Dr. sucks more.  

From his twitter feed:

Quote
 
gTnW9ZAA_x96.jpg
 
Points I Ponder While I Wander in the Leftist's Yonder
 
Earth globe americas
It's a valid? 4 past 5 yrs Ive been able 2 reach millions of Conservatives everyday defending
 
Flag of United States
& her Judeo-Christian values Pro-Life 1A & 2A Defending DJT since June 16th, 2015 CanU reach those people?

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21604

Posted
Posted
On 12/18/2019 at 11:46 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm interested to see how Pierce Bush performs in the Texas 22nd race next year. He faces a large GOP primary field but you also have to assume that he will be flush with as much money as he wants.

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/08/pierce-bush-houston-congressional-seat/

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_22nd_Congressional_District

https://time.com/5746685/pierce-bush-congress-texas/

It's always tough to run for a district where you have no ties and don't live there. Basically your message is that you belong in Congress and you're allowing the good people of the 22nd district the honor of having you as their rep.  Add in the fact that his qualification is his last name.

My hot take is that he makes the GOP run-off but loses.  

I'm pretty relieved Pierce Bush did poorly. 

I hung out with him a few times probably 7-8 years ago through a mutual friend. And I know some people that have worked with him. 

He's a nice guy. I guess no one was completely surprised that he'd run for office at some point, but people were disappointed in his pro-Trump rhetoric in ads and such. He doesn't believe in the Trumpian bullshit at all, but I guess that shows you how much Dotard owns the GOP now. 

I hope he continues to work in non-profit and lives the rest of his life outside of politics. I don't think he's cut out for it. 

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm pretty relieved Pierce Bush did poorly. 

I hung out with him a few times probably 7-8 years ago through a mutual friend. And I know some people that have worked with him. 

He's a nice guy. I guess no one was completely surprised that he'd run for office at some point, but people were disappointed in his pro-Trump rhetoric in ads and such. He doesn't believe in the Trumpian bullshit at all, but I guess that shows you how much Dotard owns the GOP now. 

I hope he continues to work in non-profit and lives the rest of his life outside of politics. I don't think he's cut out for it. 

 

I wish texans would send George P Bush packing as well.

 

i don’t like political families and I wish we had term limits.

Edited by Voldemort86
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27626

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From the article 

In his 2018 run for an immigrant-heavy, suburban Houston House seat, Sri Preston Kulkarni drew attention for his unorthodox effort to diversify his campaign staff. His volunteers and staff could reach voters in 15 languages; he hopes to double that to 30 languages this time. Primary turnout in the district grew from about 29,000 to over 65,000 , a 110 percent increase.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

Posted
Posted
On 3/15/2020 at 5:13 PM, cactusflinthead said:

From the article 

In his 2018 run for an immigrant-heavy, suburban Houston House seat, Sri Preston Kulkarni drew attention for his unorthodox effort to diversify his campaign staff. His volunteers and staff could reach voters in 15 languages; he hopes to double that to 30 languages this time. Primary turnout in the district grew from about 29,000 to over 65,000 , a 110 percent increase.

Full disclosure: this race is in my district... but it's a great target for the Surly PAC. Not only is Sri a strong candidate, but he'll be going up against either Troy Nehls or Kathaleen Wall.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1773

Posted
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13 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

13 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hopefully that’s a solid blue district.

 

progressives don’t do well in swing districts. We’ve seen it all over the map with Biden vs. Bernie.

IL-3 is D+6. This is also the district in which an unrepentant white supremacist (forgot his name already) was the 2018 Republican nominee because no one else filed to run. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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11 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Full disclosure: this race is in my district... but it's a great target for the Surly PAC. Not only is Sri a strong candidate, but he'll be going up against either Troy Nehls or Kathaleen Wall.

It always helps that he’s not facing an incumbent. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9989

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2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

 

IL-3 is D+6. This is also the district in which an unrepentant white supremacist (forgot his name already) was the 2018 Republican nominee because no one else filed to run. 

Those Chicago suburban districts are weird AF.  They still have legitimately white immigrant districts.  IL-3 is overwhelmingly Polish, I believe.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27626

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On 2/18/2020 at 6:06 PM, RayDog said:

The polling says independents prefer Bernie, as do the under 45 and minorities. A lot more potential voters will stay home if the nomination is taken from Bernie, assuming he has a plurality.

This did not age well. I sincerely hope that bt and you will still vote. 

On 4/9/2020 at 7:10 PM, Message Board User said:

GOP throwing their money down the toilet targeting Lizzie.

 

That 3.9 mil in Iowa.

Is Steve King getting some? Because he's broke.

 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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4 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

This did not age well. I sincerely hope that bt and you will still vote. 

Travis county refused to count my vote in 2018, so I am not sure it is worth my effort this time. I would have to register again since they refused my registration last time and hope for a miracle that my ballot makes it through the Philippines mail to the US. I can only vote in federal races and the congressional seat is the only one that might be competitive at this point, but I am not confident it will be. I don't have a printer so even printing the ballot takes extra effort. I hardly think it is worth my time.

Since I have no intention of ever living in the US, I am not sure if I should even care anymore about which corporate controlled lackies are pretending to care about the people.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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11 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Can say I feel pretty confident that the house isn’t flipping.

 

especially because the democrats have 4 seats that they will take from the GOP.

those are : 2 seats in North Carolina due to their map being fixed to accurately reflect the partisanship of their state, the will Hurd seat, and a seat in Georgia.

 

repubs have a few that they will win for sure, but after all of the easy flips clear, the repubs still need about 15 more. I just don’t see it happening in a presidential election that will be very high turn out. 
 

the house is least likely to flip this cycle of all the chambers, but I’m still going to keep a close eye on it because the Democratic house is all that stands between Trump and him running a dictator style government.

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/8/2020 at 9:52 AM, Voldemort86 said:

I’m bumping this thread.

it will still be important in the run up to the fall election.

the democrats are in good shape the generic ballot. I’ve seen several democrat +8 and +9 polls today.

 

A Democratic House is the one electoral prediction hill I will absolutely die on this cycle. I don't care if the Democrats trot out a Sanders-Clinton ticket, the House was not, is not, and will not be in danger of flipping this cycle barring some sort of - or I should say some other - act of God. Even the GOP knows this and is behaving as such.

Yeah, I probably just guaranteed the House flips.

Edited by gmr548
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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23 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

A Democratic House is the one electoral prediction hill I will absolutely die on this cycle. I don't care if the Democrats trot out a Sanders-Clinton ticket, the House was not, is not, and will not be in danger of flipping this cycle barring some sort of - or I should say some other - act of God. Even the GOP knows this and is behaving as such.

Yeah, I probably just guaranteed the House flips.

Bernie being the nominee and the GOP scaring all independents/ moderate democrats into voting for Trump was there only hope. Bernie was winning as low as 20-30% in some states, even against Biden head to head.  Bernie would’ve been a disaster down ballot.

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

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4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Bernie being the nominee and the GOP scaring all independents/ moderate democrats into voting for Trump was there only hope. Bernie was winning as low as 20-30% in some states, even against Biden head to head.  Bernie would’ve been a disaster down ballot.

Disagree that he would have been a disaster in the sense that the House would have flipped, or even come relatively close. America made it pretty clear it had no interest in the Trump GOP having full control of congress after seeing it in action. No indication that was going to change even for the hot minute when Bernie had all the momentum - Ds were still leading generic ballot and fundraising, Rs were still retiring, etc. I think it would have led to vote splitting.

That theory won't be tested though. And I agree that Democratic prospects are generally better with Biden at the top. Just think the impact is muted.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13712

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Generic House ballot now with a Dem lead of 7.8% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

At this exact point in 2018, the Dem lead was 6.8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Unless Biden shits the bed as the POTUS candidate, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get trounced again in the House. Personally I think that 97% of the public already knows who they are voting for, so the race will be about GOTV.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Generic House ballot now with a Dem lead of 7.8% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

At this exact point in 2018, the Dem lead was 6.8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Unless Biden shits the bed as the POTUS candidate, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get trounced again in the House. Personally I think that 97% of the public already knows who they are voting for, so the race will be about GOTV.

The house is by far the least likely chamber to flip.

at the very least, nominating Biden should ensure that democrats keep the house. 

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

Posted
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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Unless Biden shits the bed as the POTUS candidate, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get trounced again in the House. Personally I think that 97% of the public already knows who they are voting for, so the race will be about GOTV GOP voter suppression

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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Julie Oliver will be having an AMA on r/politics tomorrow from 11-1pm. She’s running in TX-25 against Roger Williams. If you’re not a reddit person, it’s basically where users submit questions in the run up before her 2 hours and she answers the ones that were pushed to the top. No real rebuttals, try to push through as many questions as possible.

g88gdxzsvfv41.png

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Generic House ballot now with a Dem lead of 7.8% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

At this exact point in 2018, the Dem lead was 6.8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Unless Biden shits the bed as the POTUS candidate, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get trounced again in the House. Personally I think that 97% of the public already knows who they are voting for, so the race will be about GOTV.

Democrats will gain numbers in the house, will easily win the presidency, and will either take over the Senate in a close race or win it fairly easily. 

Even the Republicans who are still smart know this now. The trumplicans will continue to live in denial until the bitter end, just like dear leader.

The Republican Party, if it somehow survives this, will not see the house again for another 50 years. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46068

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1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Julie Oliver will be having an AMA on r/politics tomorrow from 11-1pm. She’s running in TX-25 against Roger Williams. If you’re not a reddit person, it’s basically where users submit questions in the run up before her 2 hours and she answers the ones that were pushed to the top. No real rebuttals, try to push through as many questions as possible.

g88gdxzsvfv41.png

I am in her district and voted for her last time against Williams, to no avail. I’m about to throw some money at her because TX-25 is a fucking ridiculous gerrymandered piece of shit and Williams is a worthless rep. 

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
On 1/3/2020 at 6:52 PM, Js1 said:

General population isn’t hungry for war. Another Republican ME quagmire ain’t going to make them want to vote GOP 

General population never wants war. Republicans do it any way while making sure they and their sons avoid going to war themselves at all costs. Then they run "they hate our troops" ads against Dems who actually served and whose kids serve. And somehow that shit always works. 

Who hates the troops more?  The people who want to send them to fight and die in another forever war somewhere, or the people that want them to be home?

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Democrats will gain numbers in the house, will easily win the presidency, and will either take over the Senate in a close race or win it fairly easily. 

Even the Republicans who are still smart know this now. The trumplicans will continue to live in denial until the bitter end, just like dear leader.

The Republican Party, if it somehow survives this, will not see the house again for another 50 years. 

One thing to remember is how it seemed like every single late-decided house election in 2018 went the Democrats way. At some point simple statistical likelihood is just going to catch up and some of those seats will move back to the R column.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27626

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https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative-partisanship-and-the-2020-congressional-elections/

And in 2020, in places where partisan competition is equalized (places like Wisconsin), it will be the coalition that is angrier and/or more frightened that wins that battle, even when voting infrastructure is manipulated to discourage participation.

----

Far more important than the overall turnout is who is voting. As my colleague,  Niskanen Center President Jerry Taylor, eloquently put it after the negative partisanship model delivered him a successful election prediction: Right now, Wisconsin voters “would drink bleach for hours in those lines to kill the GOP,” an oddly prophetic claim given that the president suggested bleach as a potential cure for coronavirus at his press conference on April 23.  

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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Posted
16 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Julie Oliver will be having an AMA on r/politics tomorrow from 11-1pm. She’s running in TX-25 against Roger Williams. If you’re not a reddit person, it’s basically where users submit questions in the run up before her 2 hours and she answers the ones that were pushed to the top. No real rebuttals, try to push through as many questions as possible.

g88gdxzsvfv41.png

link is live, not too many comments yet, so you should be able to ask her something and hopefully have it addressed
 

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