2020 House election thread

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

link is live, not too many comments yet, so you should be able to ask her something and hopefully have it addressed
 

I'm a big believer in turnout is everything (informed by watching Beto -- a D can go and talk to every single person in Texas that lives outside of a town of 100,000, and you'll pick up about a half dozen votes), so I asked about that issue, and she responded twice.  She even cussed!

 

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level 1

probablybillingthis

 

2 points·2 hours ago

 

Are you going to try to tailor your positions to reach the people in between Dallas and Austin or just try to pump up the numbers as much as possible in the dark blue areas?

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level 2

JulieOliverTX

 

Score hidden·1 hour ago

 

I'm talking to everybody and showing up everywhere (or at least before sheltering-in-place orders). And that means there are different issues that are important in different areas of this district. Healthcare as a right is universal across the district. But you also have Clean Water issues in Johnson County, where the Louis Vuitton plant is discharging its proprietary chemicals into the water system that eventually makes its way to the drinking supply. In Burnet County, it's Clean Air, where a rock crushing plant is releasing silica into the air, which is a harmful inhalant. In Hays County, the Kinder Morgan pipeline is claiming eminent domain to cut through acre-after-acre of private property for the natural gas pipeline that connects the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast. High speed internet doesn't exist in many parts of this district. So I'm not sure if that quite answered your question, but it is indeed helpful to know what affects all the communities that make up TX-25.

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level 2

JulieOliverTX

 

Score hidden·1 hour ago

 

Really proud that we've thrown out the playbook that says you have to slice and dice the electorate and carefully craft your message with some poll-driven, watered down wishy washy position that people will recognize as bullshit from a mile away.

For the last 3 years we've been barnstorming all over this district, into all 13 counties, no matter how red or blue or urban or rural, and showing up and listening to the people there about what *they* want to see for the future of Texas and this country.

And the responses are not so different than you would think.

These are my beliefs -- that every single person deserves to be able to make enough to support themselves and their family, that we should ensure that every person in this country has healthcare, that climate change is an existential threat and we can face it at the scale required, and that working people have been left out of our democracy for too long.

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[Biff Tannen 45499]

I don't Reddit, but hope other people do and got to know her a bit.  I'm still waiting on my yard sign from her campaign that they were supposed to deliver months ago.

[Irieguy 1059]

15 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

One thing to remember is how it seemed like every single late-decided house election in 2018 went the Democrats way. At some point simple statistical likelihood is just going to catch up and some of those seats will move back to the R column.

False. Democrats dominate absentee voting. It’s not an anomaly and Democrats will continue to win the vast majority of late-decided elections(especially in California). Thank God. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

False. Democrats dominate absentee voting. It’s not an anomaly and Democrats will continue to win the vast majority of late-decided elections(especially in California). Thank God. 

Speaking of which,  a special election is coming up for Katie hills old seat. Need to win so that republicans don’t get any hope or have anything to cheer about. Fuck those people.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

10 hours ago, Irieguy said:

False. Democrats dominate absentee voting. It’s not an anomaly and Democrats will continue to win the vast majority of late-decided elections(especially in California). Thank God. 

Late decided meaning things that weren't set in stone heading into election day.  Not late decided as in when the ballot actually arrived.  13 Ds were able to *just* successfully get over the line for a flip (compared to 1 R flip).   All well within the margins of what might happen given the winds on any particular election day in something as small as a congressional district.  89 races were within 10%. Seems like that is a bit of a statistical fluke that there would be that many and one party benefited disproportionately from it. Compare to say 2016, when there were only three flips nationwide of the size of margins below, 2 D and 1 R, and only 32 races nationwide within 10%.  I think there needs to be some mental preparations that these aren't exactly Sheila Jackson Lee locked-down districts and some are just going to be lost because shit happens sometimes.

 

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District	Winner	Margin
Georgia 7th	Republican	0.15%
Utah 4th	Democratic (flip)	0.26%
North Carolina 9th	Republican	0.32%
New York 27th	Republican	0.38%
Texas 23rd	Republican	0.43%
Minnesota 1st	Republican (flip)	0.45%
California 21st	Democratic (flip)	0.74%
Illinois 13th	Republican	0.76%
Kansas 2nd	Republican	0.85%
Georgia 6th	Democratic (flip)	1.03%
Maine 2nd	Democratic (flip)	1.24%
New Jersey 3rd	Democratic (flip)	1.29%
South Carolina 1st	Democratic (flip)	1.39%
Oklahoma 5th	Democratic (flip)	1.40%
Florida 26th	Democratic (flip)	1.75%
New York 22nd	Democratic (flip)	1.78%
New Mexico 2nd	Democratic (flip)	1.87%
Virginia 7th	Democratic (flip)	1.94%
Nebraska 2nd	Republican	1.99%
Iowa 3rd	Democratic (flip)	2.16%
Virginia 2nd	Democratic (flip)	2.24%

 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

This is definitely one candidate I can get behind.

 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

This is definitely one candidate I can get behind.

 

That is a real tight district.  The Trumpublicans weakening themselves makes my heart happy.

[Gil Bang 25898]

On 4/28/2020 at 12:27 PM, Biff Tannen said:

I don't Reddit

So you have no idea how many shapies an 18 year old girl can stuff up her ass, do you?

[gmr548 16517]

Generic House ballot now with a Dem lead of 7.8% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
At this exact point in 2018, the Dem lead was 6.8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
Unless Biden shits the bed as the POTUS candidate, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get trounced again in the House. Personally I think that 97% of the public already knows who they are voting for, so the race will be about GOTV.

Definite trounced? I don't think Democrats are getting a huge net gain. The low hanging fruit was picked last time and they're playing a lot of defense. That said, I don't expect the GOP to mount a serious challenge. They'll pick off a few seats but they're not even going to get close enough to challenge for it in 2022. They know this too, based on their actions. With an incumbent president who has high approval among their motivated base, that's pretty underwhelming

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Definite trounced? I don't think Democrats are getting a huge net gain. The low hanging fruit was picked last time and they're playing a lot of defense. That said, I don't expect the GOP to mount a serious challenge. They'll pick off a few seats but they're not even going to get close enough to challenge for it in 2022. They know this too, based on their actions. With an incumbent president who has high approval among their motivated base, that's pretty underwhelming

I agree there are limited GOP seats to flip.  If the Dems keep the 2018 wins or even lose a couple of seats, that is still the GOP getting killed.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

So you have no idea how many shapies an 18 year old girl can stuff up her ass, do you?

It’s a big internet man. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

So you have no idea how many shapies an 18 year old girl can stuff up her ass, do you?

Is “shapies” a typo of “sharpies” or am I ignorant of something depraved?

[Irieguy 1059]

On 4/30/2020 at 8:10 PM, Message Board User said:

 

DK has a lot of Tossups. Democrats lead 222 to 197 in non-Tossups. 
 

This means that even if Republicans were to hold every seat where they have the edge and sweep the entire Tossup column, they’d still need to take five districts we rate as Lean Democratic or better in order to seize the majority.

 

[otisdog 365]

7 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Is “shapies” a typo of “sharpies” or am I ignorant of something depraved?

Both

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Definite trounced? I don't think Democrats are getting a huge net gain. The low hanging fruit was picked last time and they're playing a lot of defense. That said, I don't expect the GOP to mount a serious challenge. They'll pick off a few seats but they're not even going to get close enough to challenge for it in 2022. They know this too, based on their actions. With an incumbent president who has high approval among their motivated base, that's pretty underwhelming

I agree with all of this except for the 2022 analysis. If the Whitehorse flips and the Dems have a decent house election they will have what- about a 35 or 40 seat advantage in 2020?  We’ve seen bigger swings in 2006, 10 and 18. There will probably be 50 or 60 seats that are competitive. Nationalization of senate and house seats seems to be increasing over the last 30 years or so. I don’t know that any majority under 50 seats is bullet proof for the in party power anymore, but I’d put it 80/20 that under your scenario laid out that it plays out that way. 

I think the Senate and presidency is an almost sure bet to flip in 2020, but in the bad economic climate that’s coming down the road (regardless of who holds power) I think it’s a tad premature to believe we know anything about 2022 with certainty. 

I will say this, if Trunp somehow holds the White House in 2020 then I’d almost guarantee 2022 will be a bloodbath for the GOP. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

12 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree there are limited GOP seats to flip.  If the Dems keep the 2018 wins or even lose a couple of seats, that is still the GOP getting killed.

Absolutely true. And that would be my bet for 2020. Like the inverse of 2018 when the GOP picked up a couple senate seats in an environment that was a wet dream for them. Structurally this election in the house is baked in for Dems to keep parity or lose a couple seats even in a really good cycle for them which I would bet it is. 

[gmr548 16517]

I agree with all of this except for the 2022 analysis. If the Whitehorse flips and the Dems have a decent house election they will have what- about a 35 or 40 seat advantage in 2020?  We’ve seen bigger swings in 2006, 10 and 18. There will probably be 50 or 60 seats that are competitive. Nationalization of senate and house seats seems to be increasing over the last 30 years or so. I don’t know that any majority under 50 seats is bullet proof for the in party power anymore, but I’d put it 80/20 that under your scenario laid out that it plays out that way. 

I think the Senate and presidency is an almost sure bet to flip in 2020, but in the bad economic climate that’s coming down the road (regardless of who holds power) I think it’s a tad premature to believe we know anything about 2022 with certainty. 

I will say this, if Trunp somehow holds the White House in 2020 then I’d almost guarantee 2022 will be a bloodbath for the GOP. 

Normally I'd agree. A lot of GOP retirements, even in safe seats, tells you they don't see a majority in the future any time soon though. They are getting just obliterated in fundraising to the point that it will carry over to next cycle. The house map will be less friendly as democrats are better positioned at the state levels for redistricting.

 

It's probably bold on my end to say they just won't compete in 2022 but the groundwork isn't there for a real challenge, aside from them maybe being the opposition in a midterm, and they don't seem to be doing much about it.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Normally I'd agree. A lot of GOP retirements, even in safe seats, tells you they don't see a majority in the future any time soon though. They are getting just obliterated in fundraising to the point that it will carry over to next cycle. The house map will be less friendly as democrats are better positioned at the state levels for redistricting.

 

It's probably bold on my end to say they just won't compete in 2022 but the groundwork isn't there for a real challenge, aside from them maybe being the opposition in a midterm, and they don't seem to be doing much about it.

 

Thank god for that. 
 

operation redmap and the antics of thomas Hofeller make me sick. The GOP should have to win races based on people actually wanting to get out and vote for you.

 

In 2010, the repubs had a perfectly timed massive red wave and the democrats paid dearly for it. The democrats could win some states by 10 points in this day and age, but they would still lose the state legislature races and house seats in those states. 
 

gerrymandering is part of the game, but extreme gerrymandering is fucked up and anti American.

[gmr548 16517]

Thank god for that. 
 
operation redmap and the antics of thomas Hofeller make me sick. The GOP should have to win races based on people actually wanting to get out and vote for you.
 
In 2010, the repubs had a perfectly timed massive red wave and the democrats paid dearly for it. The democrats could win some states by 10 points in this day and age, but they would still lose the state legislature races and house seats in those states. 
 
gerrymandering is part of the game, but extreme gerrymandering is fucked up and anti American.

Agree completely but it's a two-way street. Democrats got complacent as fuck after 2008, and thought Obama, demographics, and winning the culture wars was enough.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Normally I'd agree. A lot of GOP retirements, even in safe seats, tells you they don't see a majority in the future any time soon though. They are getting just obliterated in fundraising to the point that it will carry over to next cycle. The house map will be less friendly as democrats are better positioned at the state levels for redistricting.

 

It's probably bold on my end to say they just won't compete in 2022 but the groundwork isn't there for a real challenge, aside from them maybe being the opposition in a midterm, and they don't seem to be doing much about it.

 

Opposition in mid term. They will be completely out of power and honestly, anybody governing during the time of Great Depression 2 isn’t going to be beloved I wouldn’t think. 

Also, I think the swing in the suburbs away from the GOP is decent and educated people being somewhere between irritated and horrified by Trump as the head of the party. 

How long will that stink last?  Don’t know. Generally people’s memories are short but that kind of brand damage could be somewhere between a long time and permanent. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Normally I'd agree. A lot of GOP retirements, even in safe seats, tells you they don't see a majority in the future any time soon though. They are getting just obliterated in fundraising to the point that it will carry over to next cycle. The house map will be less friendly as democrats are better positioned at the state levels for redistricting.

 

It's probably bold on my end to say they just won't compete in 2022 but the groundwork isn't there for a real challenge, aside from them maybe being the opposition in a midterm, and they don't seem to be doing much about it.

 

Opposition in mid term. They will be completely out of power and honestly, anybody governing during the time of Great Depression 2 isn’t going to be beloved I wouldn’t think. 

Also, I think the swing in the suburbs away from the GOP is decent and educated people being somewhere between irritated and horrified by Trump as the head of the party. 

How long will that stink last?  Don’t know. Generally people’s memories are short but that kind of brand damage could be somewhere between a long time and permanent. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Opposition in mid term. They will be completely out of power and honestly, anybody governing during the time of Great Depression 2 isn’t going to be beloved I wouldn’t think. 

Also, I think the swing in the suburbs away from the GOP is decent and educated people being somewhere between irritated and horrified by Trump as the head of the party. 

How long will that stink last?  Don’t know. Generally people’s memories are short but that kind of brand damage could be somewhere between a long time and permanent. 

We all know that no matter what trump isn’t going away.

 

even if the guy loses, he will be plastered all over Fox News and republican candidates will be dying to secure his endorsement. Remember he and hannity are best bros.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Biff Tannen 45499]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

We all know that no matter what trump isn’t going away.

 

even if the guy loses, he will be plastered all over Fox News and republican candidates will be dying to secure his endorsement. Remember he and hannity are best bros.

He gonna have a live feed from the cage at the bottom of the Atlantic?

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

We all know that no matter what trump isn’t going away.

 

even if the guy loses, he will be plastered all over Fox News and republican candidates will be dying to secure his endorsement. Remember he and hannity are best bros.

Please don’t add nightmare fuel to me. I hope you are wrong. His presence at the head of any party is bad news for the country. 

W disappeared. Bill disappeared (more or less- even with his wife running) Obama disappeared more or less, it’s what our politicos do. Also, he will be old as shit and I think he’s already got early stage dementia so maybe that ends it. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Please don’t add nightmare fuel to me. I hope you are wrong. His presence at the head of any party is bad news for the country. 

W disappeared. Bill disappeared (more or less- even with his wife running) Obama disappeared more or less, it’s what our politicos do. Also, he will be old as shit and I think he’s already got early stage dementia so maybe that ends it. 

Trump is an entertainer more than anything else at the end of the day. He doesn’t know anything about policy, he can’t make it or legislate to save his life, but he also wants to be front and center to take all the credit.

hes the only president in recent memory to have the audacity to sign his name on all of the aid that the government is sending out. This guy wants the spotlight and the credit more than anything else. He will stay on as the leader of the GOP for as long as humanly possible.

[Pancho 44487]

 

[gmr548 16517]

Trump will be dead before 2022 if he loses. He has nothing left to live for.

[Voldemort86 2259]

39 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

The American people are smart. I even know some republicans who thought the Paul Ryan led GOP house sucked ass.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

On 5/6/2020 at 4:25 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Please don’t add nightmare fuel to me. I hope you are wrong. His presence at the head of any party is bad news for the country. 

W disappeared. Bill disappeared (more or less- even with his wife running) Obama disappeared more or less, it’s what our politicos do. Also, he will be old as shit and I think he’s already got early stage dementia so maybe that ends it. 

He won't stop doing pressers in which he hurts his chances for re-election. He has to be in front of a camera. He doesn't see that it is bad for his campaign. He thinks he's doing great. 

He isn't like other presidents. The only way I can see him sitting on the sidelines in silence is if he is completely incapacitated. Otherwise it's not in his character to be quiet. 

[Message Board User 12389]

House seat about to flip....from blue to red....in California?

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

28 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

House seat about to flip....from blue to red....in California?

 

The electorate will be much more friendly for her in November. Especially with donald dipshit at the top of the ballot.

 

the only thing that sucks about this is the GOP will try to use it to stir up momentum, but there chances of taking the house are still nearly dead even if they win tomorrow.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

I’m not worried about this race either way.

 

if Garcia wins tomorrow, his Trump cock sucking will sink him in November.

[406W30th 1111]

Another special election today in northern Wisconsin. It's been solidly R since 2010, when they elected a dipshit from The Real World named Sean Duffy, who was a typical embarrassment-to-humanity Republican. Don't expect this one to flip blue but Tricia Zunker is a good candidate and Trump gave the Republican, Tom Tiffany the kiss of death last night w/ his enthusiastic endorsement, so who knows.

 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

California picked up 7 in the house. I know that state is liberal but I would imagine this has to be a high water mark for the D’s right now- you can’t win all the seats, can you?  

I like wasserman. It kills me (in a laugh and a cry kind of way) that the Trump brand is so toxic to the GOP that a seemingly great candidate, in a district that should be won, especially following the other party losing their seat for malfeasance, might be out in jeopardy bc the sitting president endorses the candidate,  but that’s life in Trump world and that’s completely fair. 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Reposting from the Texas thread, but Donna Imam is having a AMA on reddit and will begin answering questions at 6pm. TX-31 came up about 3 points short of flipping in 2018 with MJ Hegar as the nominee. People had success with Julie Oliver answering questions posted previously during her AMA. Most of the time rebuttals are never answered as they try to get through as many as they can, so don’t feel slighted if it occurs.

 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

California picked up 7 in the house. I know that state is liberal but I would imagine this has to be a high water mark for the D’s right now- you can’t win all the seats, can you?  

I like wasserman. It kills me (in a laugh and a cry kind of way) that the Trump brand is so toxic to the GOP that a seemingly great candidate, in a district that should be won, especially following the other party losing their seat for malfeasance, might be out in jeopardy bc the sitting president endorses the candidate,  but that’s life in Trump world and that’s completely fair. 

Things will be much harder for all cali repubs when they have to share a ballot with that moron.

[Bateshorn 9905]

There’s about 7 way north Cali/inland empire districts that are hard red.  The rest of largely flipped.

Trump is such a dumbass,  there best chance in CA-25 was for it the fly under the radar.  The nationalization of it in the last 10 days has probably made it much harder for Garcia to win.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

There’s about 7 way north Cali/inland empire districts that are hard red.  The rest of largely flipped.

Trump is such a dumbass,  there best chance in CA-25 was for it the fly under the radar.  The nationalization of it in the last 10 days has probably made it much harder for Garcia to win.

Look- you know this stuff better than I do, but aren’t there 3-5 districts in OC and San Diego that should still be GOP and aren’t due to incompetence and problems at the top of the ticket? 

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

Semi-related to the CA25 discussion, but the best gift Trump has given the Democrats was to divide entire states as red/blue in his rhetoric.  There are numerous attainable districts within many blue states (especially California) that have completely fallen by the wayside because Trump can't get it through his stupid brain that Republicans may live there.

[gmr548 16517]

Look- you know this stuff better than I do, but aren’t there 3-5 districts in OC and San Diego that should still be GOP and aren’t due to incompetence and problems at the top of the ticket? 

Orange County is highly educated and majority-minority. That's the opposite of the Republican Party. It's no more resonable to say it "should" be GOP than to say America "should" be part of England.

[gmr548 16517]

Semi-related to the CA25 discussion, but the best gift Trump has given the Democrats was to divide entire states as red/blue in his rhetoric.  There are numerous attainable districts within many blue states (especially California) that have completely fallen by the wayside because Trump can't get it through his stupid brain that Republicans may live there.

Trump got millions more votes in CA than anywhere else. Culturally, CA central valley is West Virginia with some migrant farm workers. But he is dumb.

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Look- you know this stuff better than I do, but aren’t there 3-5 districts in OC and San Diego that should still be GOP and aren’t due to incompetence and problems at the top of the ticket? 

Those OC districts suburbs are going to pale blue from light pink like the rest of the suburbs nationwide. 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Those OC districts suburbs are going to pale blue from light pink like the rest of the suburbs nationwide. 

wat?

[Voldemort86 2259]

The results stink tonight, but both seats have pretty strong GOP DNA. Both seats were red for the vast majority of this decade.

in the end, this doesn’t change anything and  the house is still the least likely thing to flip in the fall. Presidency and senate are much more likely to flip.

[Alvin89 108]

17 hours ago, 406W30th said:

Another special election today in northern Wisconsin. It's been solidly R since 2010, when they elected a dipshit from The Real World named Sean Duffy, who was a typical embarrassment-to-humanity Republican. Don't expect this one to flip blue but Tricia Zunker is a good candidate and Trump gave the Republican, Tom Tiffany the kiss of death last night w/ his enthusiastic endorsement, so who knows.

 

That sure looks like a strange kiss of death as Tiffany cruises to victory. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]