2020 House election thread

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Colorado, Virginia, and Arizona patiently nodding with that assertion. 

I don’t think there’s going to be a long Purple phase in Texas, if at all. If there is a break in the dam with a statewide win this year (Biden, Hegar, Castaneda for RRC, even a Supreme Court judge) incumbents are going to have more mirrors for their asses in 2022. All state Senate seats will be up that cycle as well.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is what I have been saying for awhile--Texas isn't going to go purple.  It's going to go blue, and in a hurry.

Texas has always been a one-party state, in part because partisan competition works to the detriment of the big businesses that have always ran the state.  As soon as Democrats start winning, the big money from TAB and TxOGA are going to come to them.  And with the money to run registration and GOTV drives, the Democratic Party in this state is going to become dominant.

We’ve already seen this election cycle how influential a democratic attorney general in Texas could be.

ken Paxton is almost single handedly keeping Texas in the 1980’s when it comes to voting.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

29 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

We’ve already seen this election cycle how influential a democratic attorney general in Texas could be.

ken Paxton is almost single handedly keeping Texas in the 1980’s when it comes to voting.

That's right.  And ironically, he's probably the GOP's weakest position player on the statewide lineup card.  To the extent there is ticket-splitting in 2022, you could easily see a lot of people voting for Abbott and voting against Paxton.

It'll be interesting to see if he gets a primary challenge for that reason.  I think any primary challenge would be doomed.  And a primary challenge would only serve to weaken Paxton further, which would obviously make a Democratic victory in a statewide race all the more likely.  But at the same time, if your a GOP strategist, you can't be happy going out there with a seriously negative-WAR player going out there at AG.

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's right.  And ironically, he's probably the GOP's weakest position player on the statewide lineup card.  To the extent there is ticket-splitting in 2022, you could easily see a lot of people voting for Abbott and voting against Paxton.

It'll be interesting to see if he gets a primary challenge for that reason.  I think any primary challenge would be doomed.  And a primary challenge would only serve to weaken Paxton further, which would obviously make a Democratic victory in a statewide race all the more likely.  But at the same time, if your a GOP strategist, you can't be happy going out there with a seriously negative-WAR player going out there at AG.

Both Patrick and Paxton weigh the ticket down every time. 
 

abbott gets way more votes than those 2 imbeciles.

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is what I have been saying for awhile--Texas isn't going to go purple.  It's going to go blue, and in a hurry.

Texas has always been a one-party state, in part because partisan competition works to the detriment of the big businesses that have always ran the state.  As soon as Democrats start winning, the big money from TAB and TxOGA are going to come to them.  And with the money to run registration and GOTV drives, the Democratic Party in this state is going to become dominant.

Brisket is gonna shove you off the ledge for this post.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Both Patrick and Paxton weigh the ticket down every time. 
 

abbott gets way more votes than those 2 imbeciles.

Someone needs to explain to me how dan Patrick gets fucking elected 

[Bookman 4611]

In the Republican primary, the nuttiest person wins.

In the general election, a lot of people vote Republican because that's what they were taught to do.

[gmr548 16517]

Hey now, we can't have any of this optimism in the CR.  GTFO with that.  This place is for panicking and doom.

I wouldn't call it pie in the sky optimism. The underlying theme is that large corporate interests ultimately run the show. I think that's hard to refute and should Democrats any kind of control we all need to be prepared to hold their feet to the fire

 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

Brisket is gonna shove you off the ledge for this post.

It’s so gratifying for people to see some of what I have to deal with every goddamned day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, Bookman said:

In the Republican primary, the nuttiest person wins.

In the general election, a lot of people vote Republican because that's what they were taught to do.

I think Patrick gets by because of what I call “ low information GOP lifers”.  These voters are from Texas. They don’t follow politics at all. They probably barely know who dan Patrick and Greg Abbott are.

theyve been told to vote GOP all their lives by their friends, family, and people around them.  They’re too busy with their lives and the lives of their kids to care about politics, but they show up every 2-4 years to vote straight ticket GOP or what is seen by them as “ the home team” or “ the good guys”. 
 

Texas probably has millions of these types of people who are too busy with their careers, families, and kids lives to follow or care about politics, but they show up and vote for the GOP every few years because in their mind they’re doing their civic duty and it’s what they’ve been told.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think Patrick gets by because of what I call “ low information GOP lifers”.  These voters are from Texas. They don’t follow politics at all. They probably barely know who dan Patrick and Greg Abbott are.

theyve been told to vote GOP all their lives by their friends, family, and people around them.  They’re too busy with their lives and the lives of their kids to care about politics, but they show up every 2-4 years to vote straight ticket GOP or what is seen by them as “ the home team” or “ the good guys”. 
 

Texas probably has millions of these types of people who are too busy with their careers, families, and kids lives to follow or care about politics, but they show up and vote for the GOP every few years because in their mind they’re doing their civic duty and it’s what they’ve been told.

Yep. Shit, I’m sure I probably voted for at least one of these assholes back before I paid attention. 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

Just got an email from Julie Oliver that she raised over $250k in August.  That seems good.

[Tuco 5076]

23 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Just got an email from Julie Oliver that she raised over $250k in August.  That seems good.

Per Open Secrets, she had 90k on hand versus Williams' 1.25M, as of June 30th (end of quarter).  So, she has some ground to make up.  Fortunately, it isn't all about the money, but money certainly helps.  

Next quarter reporting should be interesting to see how much candidates raised, and from who. My impression is that there is just money flowing on both sides.  The system fucking sucks. 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

3 minutes ago, Tuco said:

My impression is that there is just money flowing on both sides.  The system fucking sucks. 

YEP.  Biden shattered the all time record in August and I don't necessarily see that as a good thing.  Yay?  I guess it shows people hate dotard, but come on.  We have to get caps on this shit.

[Pancho 44487]

Wesley Hunt has an ad talking about his family history and slavery and overcoming that to graduate from West Point.  He shows the March on Washington in his ad, as well as his family.  

Wesley Hunt is Black.

But the one word you won’t find in his ad?  Republican.  It doesn’t even say it at the end. 

What are his chances and who is he running against?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

23 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Wesley Hunt has an ad talking about his family history and slavery and overcoming that to graduate from West Point.  He shows the March on Washington in his ad, as well as his family.  

Wesley Hunt is Black.

But the one word you won’t find in his ad?  Republican.  It doesn’t even say it at the end. 

What are his chances and who is he running against?

He's running against Lizzie Fletcher in the Texas 7th: https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_7th_Congressional_District

This district was red with Bill Archer and then John Culberson for a couple of decades before Fletcher defeated Culberson by 12K votes in 2018. Good question on whether she can keep the seat or not.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

17 hours ago, Pancho said:

Wesley Hunt has an ad talking about his family history and slavery and overcoming that to graduate from West Point.  He shows the March on Washington in his ad, as well as his family.  

Wesley Hunt is Black.

But the one word you won’t find in his ad?  Republican.  It doesn’t even say it at the end. 

What are his chances and who is he running against?

He doesn't get to hide that on the ballot, which will have a big ole "(R)" behind his name.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

House Minority Leader is a snowflake that can’t tell the CoC is reading long term political winds

Kevin McCarthy says he does not want Chamber of Commerce endorsement after reports it's backing freshman Dems
 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/kevin-mccarthy-says-he-does-not-want-chamber-of-commerce-endorsement-after-reports-its-backing-freshman-dems

[Biff Tannen 45499]

Roger Williams (TX-25) is running ads on Bravo on Amazon Fire TV that are just full on fear mongering about APD defunding. Has a white suburban housewife saying how safe she feels in her neighborhood and it’s all because of Williams. It’s pathetic. He scared. 
 

Go Julie!

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Would be great to get that dotard enabler out of office.  She was one of the worst during the House impeachment hearings.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

She’s a miserable little bitch. I don’t think she’s going to lose tho. I keep crossing my fingers that she somehow gets screwed in redistricting. New York is going to lose a seat or two. Hopefully, her seat becomes much tougher to win.

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

8 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

I love how much California hates Trump.

 

I wish the rest of the country was as smart as you guys.

[HenryJames 65890]

Fucks.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Unpredictable ratings changes from cook political. All in favor of the dems.

Va 05 moves from lean GOP to tossup

CO-03 moves from likely GOP to lean GOP

Maine 02 moves from tossup to lean Democrat.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Unpredictable ratings changes from cook political. All in favor of the dems.

Va 05 moves from lean GOP to tossup

CO-03 moves from likely GOP to lean GOP

Maine 02 moves from tossup to lean Democrat.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[hornmpa96 2598]

On 9/3/2020 at 5:51 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

He's running against Lizzie Fletcher in the Texas 7th: https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_7th_Congressional_District

This district was red with Bill Archer and then John Culberson for a couple of decades before Fletcher defeated Culberson by 12K votes in 2018. Good question on whether she can keep the seat or not.

I live in Lizzie’s district. Lots of Lizzie signs in the neighborhood as compared to Wesley. He’s also running ads saying he will protect people with preexisting conditions. Lizzie’s ads are doing a good job of tying him to Trump. I think she holds on the district.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

I don’t know if this was post-trump covid announcement but the person posting this claims that McCaul was told several times by the flight attendant to wear a mask pre-take off. Presumably he put one on to allow the plane to take off.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

This thread has been boring this cycle. I guess it’s because everyone knows the dems will keep the house and at this point, probably gain 3-5 seats.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Remember this guy?  Flipped parties right after the election..... Yea.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Is there a rough estimate of how many seats are in play and a breakdown by the incumbent party? I assume there are limited realistic opportunities for the Dems to gain much given the 2018 blue wave.  But the GOP has more opportunities to win some seats back.

[Voldemort86 2259]

25 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there a rough estimate of how many seats are in play and a breakdown by the incumbent party? I assume there are limited realistic opportunities for the Dems to gain much given the 2018 blue wave.  But the GOP has more opportunities to win some seats back.

I’m sure one will be posted in the next 15-20 days.

just need to get to the point where things are unlikely to change. I’d say after the last debate.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

47 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Remember this guy?  Flipped parties right after the election..... Yea.

 

Lulz. What a taint. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

17 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there a rough estimate of how many seats are in play and a breakdown by the incumbent party? I assume there are limited realistic opportunities for the Dems to gain much given the 2018 blue wave.  But the GOP has more opportunities to win some seats back.

 

16 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m sure one will be posted in the next 15-20 days.

just need to get to the point where things are unlikely to change. I’d say after the last debate.

Cook political has one. 
 

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

 

 

 

[Tuco 5076]

CNN list of seats most likely to flip: CNN

Similar for Roll Call: Roll Call

 

 

[Tuco 5076]

CNN list of seats most likely to flip: CNN
Similar for Roll Call: Roll Call
 
 

For all the angst about Bernie Bros, let’s talk about fuckhead moderates.

NE-2. The first or sixth most flippable districts on those lists.
2014 Brad Ashford (D ish) defeats Lee Terry ® after R defection to a T party spoiler.
2016 Ashford loses to Don Bacon ®
2018 Ashford loses to Kara Eastman in the D primary; Eastman loses to Bacon ®
2020 Brad Ashford’s wife (Ann) registers as a Dem and runs in the primary. Ann loses to Eastman by 30 points in the primary.
Today, shortly before the first debate, Brad endorses Bacon.

[Voldemort86 2259]

On 10/5/2020 at 2:50 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there a rough estimate of how many seats are in play and a breakdown by the incumbent party? I assume there are limited realistic opportunities for the Dems to gain much given the 2018 blue wave.  But the GOP has more opportunities to win some seats back.

Cook political just posted an update on the state of play in the house. The main takeaway is this :

Quote

Overall, however, Republicans no longer have a realistic path to picking up the 17 seats they need for a majority. In fact, if the 25 races in our Toss Up column were to break evenly, Democrats would pick up five to six seats. Right now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of between five and ten seats, with anything from no net change to a Democratic gain of 15 seats possible.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Good info @Voldemort86 @Tuco @BehoId, The Underminer!

I had forgotten that NC is effectively having 2 seats flipped blue given new maps since 2018. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Could fit in either QANON or here but I am unhappy that our dollars are going to this nutbar:

 

[bluto 4894]

I don’t think she had much of a shot vs Allred but Genevieve Collins has been in the hospital for a week with an appendectomy plus complications.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

So what're we thinking about Julie Oliver?  Because I think she's nice.  

But does she have a chance against Williams?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

11 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

So what're we thinking about Julie Oliver?  Because I think she's nice.  

But does she have a chance against Williams?

if it was just my neighborhood voting, she'd win 100-0

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20344]

Politico: Republican House fortunes dimming even in once-safe seats:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/13/house-republicans-2020-outlook-429130

Donald Trump is going to kill the Republican party.  

[Tuco 5076]

30 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Politico: Republican House fortunes dimming even in once-safe seats:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/13/house-republicans-2020-outlook-429130

Donald Trump is going to kill the Republican party.  

Drain the Swamp. 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

4 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Politico: Republican House fortunes dimming even in once-safe seats:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/13/house-republicans-2020-outlook-429130

Donald Trump is going to kill the Republican party.  

People saw that coming after the 2018 elections.

But GOP decided they'd go all Mack Brown and try and run out the clock, and squeak out a win, while the other side was putting points on the scoreboard.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

People saw that coming after the 2018 elections.

But GOP decided they'd go all Mack Brown and try and run out the clock, and squeak out a win, while the other side was putting points on the scoreboard.

 

There is no doubt.

republicans will be lucky to break even in the house this cycle.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20344]

The problem is that pledging fealty to Trump/Trumpism makes the other 70-80% of the Republican base look at you askance. 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

23 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

So what're we thinking about Julie Oliver?  Because I think she's nice.  

But does she have a chance against Williams?

Yes, it's close.