2020 House election thread

[Brisketexan 104628]

27 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

The problem is that pledging fealty to Trump/Trumpism makes the other 70-80% of the Republican base look at you askance. 

Ummmmmm.....think you have those number backwards.  The GOP base is all-in on Trump.  There are a few left who aren't full loyalists, but not many.  You either bend the knee, or get gone.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Bateshorn 9905]

If you guys have money burning a hole in your pocket, Rep. Peter Defazio (D-OR-4) is in trouble.

Oregon Congressional Race Tightens

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/trump-sabotage-census-apportionment-redistricting.html
 

bad news folks. It looks like the fat orange fuck might succeed at rigging the census.

I have no idea why the Supreme Court would rule in his favor when we have been using the words of the constitution to count both slaves and illegals toward apportionment for what 200 years?  I just don’t trust anything trump does. The guy shouldn’t win on this, it would be so unbelievably fucked up.

Edited October 17, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Gil Bang 25898]

State race, but whatever.   

 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Gil Bang

[Tuco 5076]

Q3 FEC filings were released last week. 

In the race (NE-2) I am following most closely, progressive Democrat challenger Kara Eastman outraised two-time Republican incumbent $1.8M to $900k.  Looking at the 2019-2020 cycle overall, she outraised him $3.25M to $3.19M.  She did this without taking contributions from corporate PACs, while he was a sitting Congressman living large off their donations.  He still has more cash-on-hand because he didn't have to spend on a primary, but I still think that's impressive as hell.  She had 4x the total from small donor contributions (<$200). 

FM3 Research (B/C pollster on 538) has Kara leading by 2 points.  Previously polling by NYT in Sept had her down by 2. 

 

[Gil Bang 25898]

Candidates have raised a combined $44.9 million and spent $27.5 million so far in the seven House races that touch Orange County, according to the latest campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

That doesn’t include independent expenditures directed at these seats. Outside groups have already spent at least $11.2 million more to support or oppose local candidates, with more than half of that total coming from Democratic groups opposing GOP challenger Michelle Steel in the 48th District race. That brings total expenditures on the seven local House races to nearly $39 million, with two weeks to go until Election Day.

When it comes to fundraising, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in the 45th District and Republican challenger Young Kim in the 39th District once again posted the biggest quarterly totals.

Porter’s third-quarter haul of $5.2 million is a record for a Democrat who’s not in House leadership, with only House Speaker Nancy Pelosi raising more money during the three-month period ending Sept. 30. Porter beat the No. 3 Democrat, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, by nearly $800,000.

 

Porter has now raised $13.4 million this cycle in her bid to hang onto the 45th District, which spreads from Irvine to Anaheim Hills and Mission Viejo. The former UC Irvine law professor had $8.9 million in campaign cash heading into October, with plans to use some of that money to support other progressive candidates across the country.

Porter’s November opponent, Republican Greg Raths, raised $446,190 in the third quarter and has taken in $1.2 million for the cycle. That figure includes $148,179 that the Mission Viejo councilman donated to his own campaign. He had $327,397 in cash as of Sept. 30, with Porter expected to handily win reelection.

In CA-39, which includes voters who live in parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties, records show that Kim for the second quarter in a row raised more than twice as much money as Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros. Kim is the only local House challenger to raise more from donors than the incumbent she’s trying to unseat.

Kim, who’s a former state Assemblywoman, raised over $1.7 million during the third quarter. She’s raised nearly $5 million this cycle and had more than $1.4 million cash for the final month of the race. But Kim does owe $493,169 to vendors for advertising, consulting and other campaign costs.

Cisneros’ campaign took in $778,996 in the latest quarter, bringing the first-term incumbent’s total for this cycle to $3.5 million. Cisneros now has $808,251 in cash on hand, though he owes $607,479 to campaign vendors.

Cisneros’ fundraising total also includes $100,000 he loaned himself in June. That debt is added to $500,000 he loaned to his campaign during the 2018 election. In that campaign, Cisneros — who 10 years ago won $266 million in the lottery — spent more than $9 million of his own money to defeat Kim and win the seat. It’s not yet clear if Cisneros will again dip deeply into his personal funds in hopes of swaying voters in the final weeks of the election, with pundits now narrowly calling the race in his favor.

In the tight race for the 48th District, which includes coastal Orange County, Rep. Harley Rouda at first appears to only have a narrow overall financial advantage over GOP challenger Michelle Steel. He raised $1.4 million in the third quarter and $5.3 million this cycle, leaving him with nearly $2.4 million in cash. Steel raised $1.6 million this quarter and $5.1 million this cycle, with nearly $2 million in cash heading into October.

But Steel gave her own campaign another $502,367 this quarter, bringing her total personal contributions to more than $1.7 million. The Republican – who draws a salary for serving as chair of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and for working in the law office of her husband, GOP activist Shawn Steel – also owes $289,135 to campaign vendors.

Pundits expect Rouda, who doesn’t owe any campaign debt and hasn’t used any of his personal real estate fortune to fund his race, to narrowly win the race.

In the 49th District, which straddles Orange and San Diego counties, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin maintains a solid fundraising advantage over GOP challenger Brian Maryott and is expected to readily win a second term.

Levin raised $534,642 last quarter and nearly $3.6 million this cycle for his CA-49 re-election bid. The former environmental attorney has $1.8 million in cash and owes $5,000 to campaign vendors.

Maryott, a San Juan Capistrano councilman and financial planner, raised $457,011 in the second quarter and nearly $2.3 million for the cycle. He has $223,542 in cash but owes $353,620 to vendors. Maryott’s total also includes $255,500 he’s given to his campaign and another $257,700 he’s loaned to himself this cycle, including a new loan of $57,700 in the latest quarter.

In three other House races that are entirely or partly in Orange County, Republican challengers reported little or no fundraising. Democratic Reps. Linda Sanchez in CA-38, Lou Correa in CA-46 and Alan Lowenthal in CA-47 are expected to easily hang onto their seats.

Congressional candidates’ final fundraising reports before Election Day, covering donations and expenses made from Oct. 1 through Oct. 14, are due Thursday, Oct. 22. Large donations and independent expenditures must be reported daily through Nov. 3.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 Soon a few Trump supporters showed up on foot, waving their flags. Perhaps it was an attempt to interrupt or intimidate, or, just to exercise their free speech. After all we respect the First Amendment. In any case, I had a decision to make. Do I ignore them or do I tell them to leave?

 

I decided neither. Instead, I called them over.

I had the mic and called out, “Hey y’all, you don’t have to stand over there waving that flag. You can come join us. Our events are open to all. We’re expanding our tent, not closing it down.”

To their credit, they came and joined our group and listened in.

“What’s your name?” I asked one of the gentlemen. “Chad,” he responded

https://bluevirginia.us/2020/10/flag-waving-horn-honking-trump-supporters-crash-qasim-rashid-for-congress-event-what-happened-next-will-surprise-and-inspire-you

[TwiceHorn 31283]

22 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 Soon a few Trump supporters showed up on foot, waving their flags. Perhaps it was an attempt to interrupt or intimidate, or, just to exercise their free speech. After all we respect the First Amendment. In any case, I had a decision to make. Do I ignore them or do I tell them to leave?

 

I decided neither. Instead, I called them over.

I had the mic and called out, “Hey y’all, you don’t have to stand over there waving that flag. You can come join us. Our events are open to all. We’re expanding our tent, not closing it down.”

To their credit, they came and joined our group and listened in.

“What’s your name?” I asked one of the gentlemen. “Chad,” he responded

https://bluevirginia.us/2020/10/flag-waving-horn-honking-trump-supporters-crash-qasim-rashid-for-congress-event-what-happened-next-will-surprise-and-inspire-you

Really goes to show that a lot of these loon bags are bred in their echo chambers, on the internet and elsewhere.

In some cases, you can engage with them and change their minds.  Some cases.  Not many though.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Really goes to show that a lot of these loon bags are bred in their echo chambers, on the internet and elsewhere.

In some cases, you can engage with them and change their minds.  Some cases.  Not many though.

Honestly, some of them just want the attention and to feel wanted.  I see that with my in-law and her bf that are into qanon shit.  If they felt some Democrat was reaching out to them, making them feel important, they could be swayed in short order.  

A lot of these people need something to fill whatever need it is that they have.

[NIUHuskies 504]

 

https://m.sacurrent.com/the-daily/archives/2020/10/19/at-debate-san-antonio-us-rep-chip-roy-cites-document-signed-by-giggle-dr-ip-freely?utm_source=feature&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=hpfeatures&utm_content=HomeFeaturedStoriesCustomMobile

 

[UpperWestside 6136]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

A lot of these people need something to fill whatever need it is that they have.

It is a need to belong to a group. It doesn’t matter that the group is inherently evil. The need to belong to something they feel identifies with them is what draws them in. Not the first group of people taken in by the words of a cult leader and it won’t be the last.

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[burntorangebongos 10681]

I hope this asshole is soundly defeated.

 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

6 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

I hope this asshole is soundly defeated.

 

Just as long as you don't bet money on it, or anything of value. I'm pretty sure he's a stone cold lock. 

[burntorangebongos 10681]

Fucking Florida needs to go then.

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

yea, that district was pretty much drawn for him by his dad and his buddies. You'd have to catch him with a live boy...wait. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

16 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 Soon a few Trump supporters showed up on foot, waving their flags. Perhaps it was an attempt to interrupt or intimidate, or, just to exercise their free speech. After all we respect the First Amendment. In any case, I had a decision to make. Do I ignore them or do I tell them to leave?

 

I decided neither. Instead, I called them over.

I had the mic and called out, “Hey y’all, you don’t have to stand over there waving that flag. You can come join us. Our events are open to all. We’re expanding our tent, not closing it down.”

To their credit, they came and joined our group and listened in.

“What’s your name?” I asked one of the gentlemen. “Chad,” he responded

https://bluevirginia.us/2020/10/flag-waving-horn-honking-trump-supporters-crash-qasim-rashid-for-congress-event-what-happened-next-will-surprise-and-inspire-you

below is a great comeback to the idea that Dems are discussing packing the court, when that was EXACTLY what McConnell has done. Perhaps McConnell didn't raise the number of justices/judges but the end result is the same. EDIT: If a Pres. Biden wants to add to the courts, his line should be that McConnell stole these judges from the Democrat voters.

Quote

Eventually, Chad asked about the Supreme Court and the claim that Democrats want to “Pack the Court.”

I responded, “Sure, let’s talk about packing the court. Let’s talk about how Republicans have won the popular vote only 1 of last 7 Presidential elections but have nominated 14 of last 19 SCOTUS picks. Let’s talk about how Mitch McConnell denied President Obama’s appointments of 110 Federal judges, and a SCOTUS appointment. Those 110 appointments were then appointed by President Trump with conservative judges, and the SCOTUS pick denied to Obama was given to Trump. And now, going back on their own rule to not appoint SCOTUS justices in an election year, the GOP wants to appoint a justice in an election year. You can’t accuse Democrats of a hypothetical event that never happened while ignoring the actual court packing done by Republicans.”

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Bateshorn 9905]

The Florida seat the Dems need to flip the delegation is Florida 15: Ross Spano is the incumbent GOP. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Could have implications for the presidential race as well depending on which states these seats are located in.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

 

They put the content behind a pay wall but they show you all the districts and their new colors right here.  It’s like they’re not familiar with tl;dr

[Voldemort86 2259]

Quote

CA-50: VACANT (Hunter) (R) - Likely R to Lean R
FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powelll (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
GA-06: Lucy McBath (D) - Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Rodney Davis (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Likely D to Lean D
KS-03: Sharice Davids (D) - Likely D to Solid D
MI-03: (OPEN) Amash (I) - Lean R to Toss Up
MN-01: Jim Hagedorn (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
MN-02: Angie Craig (D) - Lean D to Likely D
NC-09: Dan Bishop (R) - Likely R to Lean R
VA-02: Elaine Luria (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Likely R to Lean R

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

NRCC is pumping dollars to Beth Van Duyne. I saw another one for her on the WS. 

[Hank Scorpio 17723]

I fucking hate Dan Crenshaw so much. 
 

 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

14 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I fucking hate Dan Crenshaw so much. 
 

 

Just adding my +1 and pos rep. 

[406W30th 1111]

Turns out the Hitler fanboy is racist. Who'da thought?

Also, fuck the NYT for calling this a "dog whistle". Dude is screaming his racism.

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

Fuck that beefcake and his lying about being accepted to USNA. Fucking perfect protege for a dullard like Meadows.

Also, normal Friday in republican twitter.

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

6 hours ago, 406W30th said:

Turns out the Hitler fanboy is racist. Who'da thought?

Also, fuck the NYT for calling this a "dog whistle". Dude is screaming his racism.

If you asked me to describe a guy named Madison Cawthorn I would say this, this is Madison Cawthorn.  There can never be another person named Madison Cawthorn, because this photo is the epitome of what it means to be named Madison Cawthorn.  He should never, ever take another photo, because no other photo will ever capture the essence of what it means to be Madison Cawthorn.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

26 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

Fuck that beefcake and his lying about being accepted to USNA. Fucking perfect protege for a dullard like Meadows.

Also, normal Friday in republican twitter.

 

So what this tells me is that earlier this year his wife wasn't able to go to Chili's or Applebees, and he wasn't able to go to SuperCuts, and it's been giving them PTSD ever since.

[gmr548 16517]

Fuck that beefcake and his lying about being accepted to USNA. Fucking perfect protege for a dullard like Meadows.
Also, normal Friday in republican twitter.
 

They’re just so fucking aggy

[Brisketexan 104628]

What are the latest projections here? This is, like, important.

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What are the latest projections here? This is, like, important.

Dems are expected to gain 10-15 seats. Suburbs turning away from trump in droves. House isn’t even competitive.

[RayDog 682]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

What are the latest projections here? This is, like, important.

I still find Bitecofer's analysis the most interesting, but she over estimates certain Texas seats chances to flip because she groups aggies in with college educated who would otherwise be leaning toward the Democrats. Also what she calls likely or lean is a toss-up to other people. Most of her toss-ups lean R. Based on her analysis and the high turnout so far 20-25 seats could flip to Democrats while they lose only 1 or  2.

Likely D (R Seats) AZ-6, IN-5, MN-1, MO-2, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, TX-3, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25
Lean D (R Seats) GA-7, IL-13, NJ-2, OH-1, PA-1, TX-2, TX-10,
Toss-ups (R Seats) CA-25, CA-50,MI-3, MI-6, MT, NY-1, NY-2, NY-21, NY-24, NC-8, OH-12,TX-6, TX-31, VA-5  
Toss-ups (D Seats) MN-7, OK-5
Lean R (R Seats) AK, AR-2, CO-3, FL-15, FL-16, IA-4, OH-10, PA-10, WA-3

[SydneyCarton 47884]

4 hours ago, RayDog said:

I still find Bitecofer's analysis the most interesting, but she over estimates certain Texas seats chances to flip because she groups aggies in with college educated who would otherwise be leaning toward the Democrats. Also what she calls likely or lean is a toss-up to other people. Most of her toss-ups lean R. Based on her analysis and the high turnout so far 20-25 seats could flip to Democrats while they lose only 1 or  2.

Likely D (R Seats) AZ-6, IN-5, MN-1, MO-2, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, TX-3, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25
Lean D (R Seats) GA-7, IL-13, NJ-2, OH-1, PA-1, TX-2, TX-10,
Toss-ups (R Seats) CA-25, CA-50,MI-3, MI-6, MT, NY-1, NY-2, NY-21, NY-24, NC-8, OH-12,TX-6, TX-31, VA-5  
Toss-ups (D Seats) MN-7, OK-5
Lean R (R Seats) AK, AR-2, CO-3, FL-15, FL-16, IA-4, OH-10, PA-10, WA-3

My observations of RayDog math is that you need to multiply the numbers by the height of his preferred Filipino female vis a vis a typical western female. So take his numbers and multiply them by 2/3, and you have a more accurate reading of things. 20-25 house spots potentially flipping? Let’s say it would be very very VERY optimistic for 12-17. 
 

we can do his voter turnout next, but I’m basically pretty confident my scientific explanation is basically foolproof. We can dissect more after the elections. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[RayDog 682]

30 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

My observations of RayDog math is that you need to multiply the numbers by the height of his preferred Filipino female vis a vis a typical western female. So take his numbers and multiply them by 2/3, and you have a more accurate reading of things. 20-25 house spots potentially flipping? Let’s say it would be very very VERY optimistic for 12-17. 
 

we can do his voter turnout next, but I’m basically pretty confident my scientific explanation is basically full proof. We can dissect more after the elections. 

Those are Bitecofer's not mine. But I could see 10 of her likely 13,  4 of her 7 leans,  and 6 or 7 of her toss-ups, perhaps a couple more. 

[gmr548 16517]

My observations of RayDog math is that you need to multiply the numbers by the height of his preferred Filipino female vis a vis a typical western female. So take his numbers and multiply them by 2/3, and you have a more accurate reading of things. 20-25 house spots potentially flipping? Let’s say it would be very very VERY optimistic for 12-17. 
 
we can do his voter turnout next, but I’m basically pretty confident my scientific explanation is basically full proof. We can dissect more after the elections. 

That formula actually works really well here lulz

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

3 hours ago, RayDog said:

she groups aggies in with college educated

2024 polling discussion. “The problem with 2020 polling was the experts only looked at college educated and did not correct for college indoctrinated”

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

basically full proof.

So, like, 200?

[SydneyCarton 47884]

23 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

2024 polling discussion. “The problem with 2020 polling was the experts only looked at college educated and did not correct for college indoctrinated”

So, like, 200?

That...is on my phone. But thanks. 

[GopherRock 1765]

File this one under N for "No shit."

https://www.startribune.com/gop-recruited-pot-party-candidate-to-pull-votes-from-dfler-he-said/572888651/

Quote

In a May 20 voicemail message provided to the Star Tribune, Weeks told a longtime friend that Republicans in the Second District approached him two weeks before the filing deadline to run for Congress in the hopes he’d “pull votes away” from incumbent DFL Rep. Angie Craig and give an advantage to the “other guy,” Tyler Kistner, the Republican-endorsed candidate.

The recording, underscoring the intense battle in one of the state’s most competitive elections, has come to light just as the Southern Minnesota Regional Medical Examiner’s Office listed Weeks’ death as a result of substance abuse, caused by ethanol and fentanyl toxicity. The death was ruled as accidental.

The message, left on the answering machine of his friend Joey Hudson, indicated that Weeks planned to meet with some GOP operatives in May, but he did not identify them other than as “CD2 [Second Congressional District] Republicans.”

 

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

On 10/23/2020 at 3:25 PM, atomheartbevo said:

If you asked me to describe a guy named Madison Cawthorn I would say this, this is Madison Cawthorn.  There can never be another person named Madison Cawthorn, because this photo is the epitome of what it means to be named Madison Cawthorn.  He should never, ever take another photo, because no other photo will ever capture the essence of what it means to be Madison Cawthorn.

please tell me this guy isn't winning...

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

22 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

please tell me this guy isn't winning...

Isn't he projected to win by a huge margin? It's a very red district.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

4 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

Not surprising, but still disappointing.

[Tuco 5076]

12 hours ago, RayDog said:

 

Likely D (R Seats) :NE-2,
 

I'd love to believe, but I would call this race a Lean D at best.  (Toss-up at worse.) 

[Foosters 17734]

Go fuck yourself, San Diego

[Gil Bang 25898]

15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Not surprising, but still disappointing.

Yeah, I like Ammar well enough.  It's a shame his mother didn't change his name to "Bill Smith" 20 years ago. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

24 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Yeah, I like Ammar well enough.  It's a shame his mother didn't change his name to "Bill Smith" 20 years ago. 

and a shame his granddad didn't kill a bunch of people.  that's quite the political headwind

Edited October 28, 2020 by BehoId, The Underminer!
i mean, did kill.

[Gil Bang 25898]

I doubt anybody that's going to blame Ammar, for crimes committed by the grandfather that he never met, would be voting Dem anyway.  

Fuck, Issa was a no-shit car thief.  Now he's just a carpetbagging asshole. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I doubt anybody that's going to blame Ammar, for crimes committed by the grandfather that he never met, would be voting Dem anyway.  

Fuck, Issa was a no-shit car thief.  Now he's just a carpetbagging asshole. 

Him and Pete Sessions--it's absolutely fucking wild that a guy can lose in his home district, run in a somewhat close-by (but not even neighboring) district, and get the locals to vote for him.

I mean, I know that has a proud history in British parliamentary history.  Churchill stood for election in at least two constituencies.  But still--that's wild.

[Gil Bang 25898]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Him and Pete Sessions--it's absolutely fucking wild that a guy can lose in his home district, run in a somewhat close-by (but not even neighboring) district, and get the locals to vote for him.

I mean, I know that has a proud history in British parliamentary history.  Churchill stood for election in at least two constituencies.  But still--that's wild.

GOLL: I know you value accuracy, so correction is in order.  Issa is running in the next district over, but it's gerrymandered as fuck.  I'm in the 49th.  The 50th starts about 3 mi NE of me.  At least a part of it does.  A lot of it is up in Riverside County (Temecula area) and down into East San Diego County, but the 49th and 50th do, in fact, touch.  And they touch where the incorporated city of Vista CA meets unincorporated Bonsall, CA. 

But yeah, it's wild.  If Hunter hadn't stepped on his dick, he'd be representing the 50th for life.  It's a pretty red district. 

And,, Issa didn't lose.  He declined to run in 2018, because his poll numbers were shit, and he'd won a squeaker 2 years previous. 

One of the things that I think I've mentioned upthread:  Issa had a 18 year congressional career.   He was a known quantity.  He had a record.  Now, the motherfucker's signs all say "Trump Conservative".   

Edited October 29, 2020 by Gil Bang