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2020 House election thread

cactusflinthead

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

GOLL: I know you value accuracy, so correction is in order.  Issa is running in the next district over, but it's gerrymandered as fuck.  I'm in the 49th.  The 50th starts about 3 mi NE of me.  At least a part of it does.  A lot of it is up in Riverside County (Temecula area) and down into East San Diego County, but the 49th and 50th do, in fact, touch.  And they touch where the incorporated city of Vista CA meets unincorporated Bonsall, CA. 

But yeah, it's wild.  If Hunter hadn't stepped on his dick, he'd be representing the 50th for life.  It's a pretty red district. 

And,, Issa didn't lose.  He declined to run in 2018, because his poll numbers were shit, and he'd won a squeaker 2 years previous. 

One of the things that I think I've mentioned upthread:  Issa had a 18 year congressional career.   He was a known quantity.  He had a record.  Now, the motherfucker's signs all say "Trump Conservative".   

Thank you for the corrections.  I didn't think those districts were that close.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

Posted
Posted (edited)

Politico has 17 moving, including 2 in Rs favor.

Notably, Chip Roy downgraded to toss up, Julie Oliver upgraded to leans R.

 

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/house/

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
wait, oliver's was from the last update
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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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In NE-1 (Lincoln + some Eastern Nebraska, except Omaha), Kate Bolz (D) always had a big uphill battle against Fortenberry (aka Googly-eyes Fartenberry).  She has maybe a chance if a blue tsunami carries her. 

Last week she caught the Covid, and has significant symptoms.  She is relatively young and in good shape, so chances of recovery are good.  But damn, it sucks with all of the effort and stress of running for a Congressional seat, only to get a hammered in the final push with an illness that saps your energy and prevents you from directly interacting with your staff or the public.  Tough way to finish the campaign.   

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
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10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

seems incredible after all the nail biters in 2018 that there would be any low enough hanging fruit left.

I think the point is that there isn't any low-hanging fruit.  This is the fruit that you have to climb a tree to get.

And it's further indicative of another blue wave.  The district-level polls are telling you that this thing isn't really all that close.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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6 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think the point is that there isn't any low-hanging fruit.  This is the fruit that you have to climb a tree to get.

And it's further indicative of another blue wave.  The district-level polls are telling you that this thing isn't really all that close.

That’s my guess as well, but 15 or 20 is a huge number after how big the 2018 number was. If 400+ EV is in play then that’s going to happen. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32702

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On 11/2/2020 at 7:19 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Crazy that McCaul was switched to toss up. I know his district tightened up in 2018 but I figured he was safe.

McCaul won 51-47 in 2018. He won 62.6-35.6 in the Harris County vote (most of the Harris County portion of the district is the heavily Republican NW portion of the county). Right now he is up 61.8-36.3 in the Harris County vote. That will be about half of the total votes in the race. Looks like he'll still win but it will be even closer.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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Couple things looking at Cook right now to take a peak at where the house sits...

with 135,000,000 votes cast the GOP leads all House races by something like 35,000 votes- just insanely close. 
That means- The GOP house is running something like 3 percent ahead for Trump at the moment. I’d expect the final numbers to be a Trump 4% loss in the popular vote and a GOP 1% loss in the popular vote. 
I think the final results will be Dems around 50% and GOP at about 48.5%. If you had a completely and totally equitable distribution of house seats based upon vote share the Dems would have a 3 or 4 seat advantage- their advantage will be bigger than that in the real world. 
I think what this shows is that in 2020 gerrymandering wasn’t a big deal at all. And that basically makes sense- as the Dems have taken back the suburbs thats broken any kind of positive that would get for gerrymandering. 
that’s not to say the districts are drawn perfectly, logically or fairly, just that they yielded a result this time around that’s consistent with the universe of overall votes. 
also as rural voters start going 80/20 GOP the way urban districts have gone 80/20 Dem forever that balances out the “wasted vote” factor that had come with Dems living close to each other. Now the GOP loves close to itself to. 
if this is truly a 50/50 (ish) country it’d be cool if there was some way for our legislative body to reflect that in temperament and numbers  looks like it will this year in numbers but we shall see what that looks like in temperament  

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

How many of each party ran unopposed?  Lightly populated areas trend Republican so that's probably more of the issue than running ahead of Trump. 

Yeah but there’s as many non competitive races in urban areas too I’d wager. As well as people biting in presidential but not a house race factors in some too I’d imagine. 
what were there probably 100 races that were contested to one extent or another in at least a half assed way and less than 50 seriously contested?  

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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Now that it's over, 

My wife was one of the staffers for the Kara Eastman for Congress.  Kara lost by 4 points Tuesday, which is disappointing because 1) she only lost by 2 points in 2018, and 2) NE-2 went Biden, by several.  If Kara would have won, we were planning on moving to DC, with my wife working on Capitol Hill.  That would have been fucking bad ass.  Instead, she is looking for a job, and we plan to move to the Pacific NW soon.  That's still going to be pretty bad ass, and less stress. 

Having a connection to a campaign has been fascinating. The amount of money involved is disgusting, yet they were so bare bones that the shit-dive office they rented hasn't had heat for like two weeks.  Kara is great.  She's a cool person.  Anyone who says all politicians are evil are full of shit, and just perpetuating a low bar.  There are good people who run, and it is surprisingly easy to engage with them.  The people who worked on the campaign are amazing.  It's cliche, but they make me hopeful for the future.  The drama I saw with the local and state party was frustrating, but the campaign folks were able to isolate themselves from it. The presence of idiots only blurs the importance if you let it; they can be ignored and worked around.

If you have an opportunity to get involved with a political campaign, I highly recommend it.  There are good people, and when they lose it's heartbreaking.  But it's worth it. 

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TheStoicPaisano

TheStoicPaisano 9904

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Good hold for a freshman D after flipping the seat in 2018. IL-14 was Hastert’s district for two decades and is overwhelmingly white for Chicagoland. Fuck Oberweis and his money.
 

Moderate, young POC with Mich/Hopkins degrees and time in Obama’s HHS. Underwood has a bright future.

Edited by TheStoicPaisano
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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The NY race swung to the GOP candidate up 12 or 13 votes last I saw- with the deadline to count all the votes past but they "found" 55 votes somewhere or other that weren't counted but only 44 from registered voters so the judge is going to decide whether to count them or not. 
Tabulation error in reporting was what caused the last 12 point swing.  

And still- it wouldn't have mattered who I voted for there or in IA district 2.  But it is pretty crazy to see 400,000 votes more or less being decided by less than 20 votes in 2 different districts.  

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Js1

Js1 85110

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NY-22 and IA-2 will remain vacant for a while, I'm afraid.

Rita Hart (IA-2) is taking her challenge directly to the House.  They can either sit Hart, sit Miller-Meeks or seat neither and force a special election. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

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2 hours ago, hookem2010 said:

I don't know where to put this, but I just moved from one of Texas' many armpits, Decatur, to North Austin, only to find out my house Rep is Republican Michael McCaul. The district stretches from north Austin all the way to what looks like@Huckleberry hood in NW Houston. What. The. Fuck? That's absurd.

My rep in Hyde Park is also the rep for Stephenville. 

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