2020 House election thread

[Bateshorn 9903]

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

Another one bites the dust 

 

CSB Alert:  I went in to meet with Marchant's staff during his first Congress.  Just to introduce myself and my client, get a business card, get a feel for the office. He was a beneficiary of the 2003 redistricting, so it seemed prudent to get an understanding of the redrawn delegation.

I'm sitting in his cramped freshman office up in the rafters of Longworth (I think). His staff is coming and going, and it's a non stop parade of stupid hot women.  Like jaw droppingly hot. Finally some crusty old bastard of a Chief of Staff comes out from the back and invites me back for pleasantries.  Which was terribly disappointing.  I was looking forward to my meeting until that point.

I haven't been back in there in years, his committees never aligned with my interests, but he definitely seemed to live by Charlie Wilson's "You can teach 'em to type, but you can't teach them to grow tits" rule.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Two of these are gone. 

Carter is vulnerable? I believe it even less now than I did then.

[Js1 85110]

Upton  +4
Bacon +2
Zeldin +6
Katko +5
Fitzpatrick +3
McCaul +5
Carter +3
Herrera Beutler +5
 

Yeah, I'd be worried about them too. 

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Two of these are gone. 

Carter is vulnerable? I believe it even less now than I did then.

TX-31 is Williamson and Bell.

Beto won Williamson by 5,993 votes. The democrats are trending positive in Williamson using the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections for comparison. 2018-50.84%   2016- 41.59%   2012-37.90%

For Bell he lost by 9,020 with the trend being  2018- 44.37%    2016-39.79%    2012-41.19% 

In 2018 Williamson had 208,221 voters and Bell 86,577.  With about 25% more new voters expected in 2020 than 2018 and most of them coming form urban and suburban areas the number and percentage of Williamson voters will be higher in 2020. 

Making up a 4,027 vote deficit is very doable for a strong candidate. It is already a toss-up and should be, but with a a strong democratic candidate it could end up leaning democratic. Carter will also turn 80 in 2021. I suspect he will retire, which definitely would make it an open race .

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I live in 31 and my sense is that trump will hurt the republicans chances there. Beto brought out a lot of suburban women and they aren’t going to pass up a chance to vote against trump. Bell county is the tougher part of the district but it’s only a matter of time before wilco Dems will outweigh them. Never would have thought I would live to see the day Wilco is leading the democrat charge but this area has changed significantly.

[Pancho 44479]

 

[Js1 85110]

I'll say it. The huge swing from the suburbs for the GOP that appears to not be changing and even getting worse is going to end up with 245-250 Democratic seats in the House.

And the Senate will sadly still be 51-49 or 50-50.

But the growing rate of suburbs going R -> D is really bad for Republicans in Arizona, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina.  Expanding suburbs of major blue cities. 

[Js1 85110]

NYT article on the retirements said Fred Upton might be the next one.  This is Joe Biden's buddy he campaigned for in 2018. 

[Message Board User 12389]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'll say it. The huge swing from the suburbs for the GOP that appears to not be changing and even getting worse is going to end up with 245-250 Democratic seats in the House.

And the Senate will sadly still be 51-49 or 50-50.

But the growing rate of suburbs going R -> D is really bad for Republicans in Arizona, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina.  Expanding suburbs of major blue cities. 

Towards that end...

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

34 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Towards that end...

 

We’re going to really need Wisconsin in 2020. Thankfully they voted out pond scum walker in 2018 so that he can’t cheat for trump. 

Democratic prospects in Iowa, Florida, and Ohio seem to have worsened lately. Obama used to be able to win in those states, we haven’t seen democratic wins in those places since except for a few House districts in Iowa.

[JimmyJames 12271]

55 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I live in 31 and my sense is that trump will hurt the republicans chances there. Beto brought out a lot of suburban women and they aren’t going to pass up a chance to vote against trump. Bell county is the tougher part of the district but it’s only a matter of time before wilco Dems will outweigh them. Never would have thought I would live to see the day Wilco is leading the democrat charge but this area has changed significantly.

I never thought I’d see the day that Wilco was leaning democrat but here we are. And while Bell County is more conservative than Wilco nowadays (it didn’t used to be as Wilco was probably the second most conservative county in the state after Midland), it does have a significant African American population that despite what trump and the republicans may claim, is going to vote against Trump in significant numbers next election.  I bet Carter retires. 

[Message Board User 12389]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

We’re going to really need Wisconsin in 2020. Thankfully they voted out pond scum walker in 2018 so that he can’t cheat for trump. 

Barely - Walker lost 49.54% to 48.44%.  Less then 30,000 votes and he was extremely unpopular. 

Democrats have a lot of work to do in Wisconsin, a state that had been considered safe for the Dems.

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Democratic prospects in Iowa, Florida, and Ohio seem to have worsened lately. Obama used to be able to win in those states, we haven’t seen democratic wins in those places since except for a few House districts in Iowa.

Agreed.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

Barely - Walker lost 49.54% to 48.44%.  Less then 30,000 votes and he was extremely unpopular. 

Democrats have a lot of work to do in Wisconsin, a state that had been considered safe for the Dems.

Agreed.  

I’m too lazy to look it up, but didn’t a bunch of retarded independents and moderate Dems actually vote for walker? 

 

I seem to recall the statewide popular vote in 2018 being lopsided in the Dems favor. They won every statewide race in Wisconsin in 2018.

[Js1 85110]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m too lazy to look it up, but didn’t a bunch of retarded independents and moderate Dems actually vote for walker? 

 

I seem to recall the statewide popular vote in 2018 being lopsided in the Dems favor. They won every statewide race in Wisconsin in 2018.

There was a weird amount of Baldwin/Walker voters. 2 totally different people. Scott Walker and a lesbian democrat. 

[Js1 85110]

You can also trade Wisconsin for Arizona and come out ahead an electoral vote. Obviously strategy A is the blue wall. But having Arizona in your back pocket is very helpful. 

[Message Board User 12389]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m too lazy to look it up, but didn’t a bunch of retarded independents and moderate Dems actually vote for walker? 

 

I seem to recall the statewide popular vote in 2018 being lopsided in the Dems favor. They won every statewide race in Wisconsin in 2018.

Here's a pretty thorough examination of what happened in Wisconsin and you can probably extrapolate to the other states in the Midwest.

https://www.wiscontext.org/how-and-where-trump-won-wisconsin-2016

The whole thing is worth a read but I'll post the conclusion here:

Overall, this close examination of the county-level results of the Wisconsin presidential race in 2016 shows three main trends that each contributed to the final outcome in the state. The first trend is voter turnout, which was down statewide. Trump obtained about as many total votes as Romney did in 2012, but Clinton got far fewer compared to Obama's 2012 performance. Low voter turnout was most pronounced in the major metro areas and their adjacent suburbs — especially Milwaukee, which house the largest share of Wisconsin's voters.

The second trend is that Trump outperformed expectations set by Romney's 2012 run as well as by most poll findings. His win, however, was uneven across the state. In rural areas, the Republican showing was stronger than in 2012, but the total number of votes did not alone make the difference in Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes for 2016. However, Trump's strong performance in the counties housing small and medium-sized urban centers and their suburbs — with their larger numbers of voters — was important. These counties have traditionally been "swing" areas, not voting consistently with a single party over the years. In 2012, on average they voted close to 50 percent for Romney and 50 percent for Obama. By contrast, in the major metro areas, Trump actually picked up fewer votes than Romney.

Finally, third-party voting cannot be ignored in 2016. A 365 percent increase in votes for third-party candidates, mostly for Johnson, suggests that some voters — especially those leaning conservative — were unhappy with their major party choices. This effect was most obvious in the conservative stronghold counties housing the Milwaukee suburbs, but was evident statewide.

Trump won Wisconsin's rural counties by a margin of 16,642 votes — this total was not enough to tip the state's election outcome by itself. Counties with smaller and medium-sized urban areas contributed about 125,000 votes to Trump's margin in the state. The emerging political narrative that support from rural areas clinched the victory for Trump does not cover the totality of voting patterns in the election, at least in Wisconsin.

[Js1 85110]

Well the suburbs have swung hard away from him. Turnout will matter in 2018. Even eking out a 1-1.5 point win is good enough. Whatever. It. Takes. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I could see the presidency coming down to the Milwaukee suburbs. It’s pretty scary. 

[Message Board User 12389]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well the suburbs have swung hard away from him. Turnout will matter in 2018. Even eking out a 1-1.5 point win is good enough. Whatever. It. Takes. 

Also, nominating someone who can connect with minorities in the major Midwest cities will be critical - is Warren or Bernie or even top cop Kamala that candidate?

13 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Trump obtained about as many total votes as Romney did in 2012, but Clinton got far fewer compared to Obama's 2012 performance. Low voter turnout was most pronounced in the major metro areas and their adjacent suburbs — especially Milwaukee, which house the largest share of Wisconsin's voters.

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

The Foxconn mess is still simmering in Wisconsin. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

That idiot trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a combined 71,000 votes.

Clinton was a very flawed candidate, she didn’t even really campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan, trumps campaign released negative Wikileaks every week that really hurt Clinton. People were not very motivated at all to support Clinton.  Now that people know how much trump sucks a lot of people will be motivated to show up and vote him out.

 

Mix in another 4 years of old fuckers dying who support republicans no matter how much they hurt them personally and more young people being eligible to vote who overwhelmingly support democrats.

am I really that crazy for thinking we will win Michigan and Pennsylvania with better odds In Wisconsin?  Walker was shady as shit, it’s not far fetched to think losing him will hurt the Wisconsin GOP turnout in 2020.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Voldemort86

[gmr548 16513]

4 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Also, nominating someone who can connect with minorities in the major Midwest cities will be critical - is Warren or Bernie or even top cop Kamala that candidate?

 

Trump being on the ballot does about 90 percent of that work. I think a lot of the "Obama coalition" sat out 2016 because it was seen to be in the bag. Anti-Trump sentiment fires that crowd up as much as any D candidate will.

3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

That idiot trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a combined 71,000 votes.

Clinton was a very flawed candidate, she didn’t even really campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan, trumps campaign released negative Wikileaks every week that really hurt Clinton. People were not very motivated at all to support Clinton.  Now that people know how much trump sucks a lot of people will be motivated to show up and vote him out.

 

Mix in another 4 years of old fuckers dying who support republicans no matter how much they hurt them personally and more young people being eligible to vote who overwhelmingly support democrats.

am I really that crazy for thinking we will win Michigan and Pennsylvania with better odds In Wisconsin?  Walker was shady as shit, it’s not far fetched to think losing him will hurt the Wisconsin GOP turnout in 2020.

They aren't all three toss ups like they are portrayed in the media, but WI sure is. PA is overwhelmingly likely to flip back. That is still a blue state - look at 2018. Philly area voters won't get caught staying home in 2020 like they did in 2016. All the data shows Wisconsin is one of the few true tossup states, and it is pivotal in the EC. Michigan is somewhere between those two - a solid D candidate that makes a decent effort is very likely to win, but it can absolutely be lost. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Trump being on the ballot does about 90 percent of that work. I think a lot of the "Obama coalition" sat out 2016 because it was seen to be in the bag. Anti-Trump sentiment fires that crowd up as much as any D candidate will.

They aren't all three toss ups like they are portrayed in the media, but WI sure is. PA is overwhelmingly likely to flip back. That is still a blue state - look at 2018. Philly area voters won't get caught staying home in 2020 like they did in 2016. All the data shows Wisconsin is one of the few true tossup states, and it is pivotal in the EC. Michigan is somewhere between those two - a solid D candidate that makes a decent effort is very likely to win, but it can absolutely be lost. 

If Wisconsin goes red but the other two go blue, how likely is a 269 to 269 scenario? Actually looks really plausible to me unless I am missing something.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/BPjlE

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Trump being on the ballot does about 90 percent of that work. I think a lot of the "Obama coalition" sat out 2016 because it was seen to be in the bag. Anti-Trump sentiment fires that crowd up as much as any D candidate will.

They aren't all three toss ups like they are portrayed in the media, but WI sure is. PA is overwhelmingly likely to flip back. That is still a blue state - look at 2018. Philly area voters won't get caught staying home in 2020 like they did in 2016. All the data shows Wisconsin is one of the few true tossup states, and it is pivotal in the EC. Michigan is somewhere between those two - a solid D candidate that makes a decent effort is very likely to win, but it can absolutely be lost. 

I’m skeptical about Wisconsin being a true toss up.

 

id say democrats have the advantage there. They won Wisconsin for 30 years before 2016 and they won it again in 2018. I’d put the odds of a generic democrat winning right now at 55-45. If Bernie or warren is the candidate, we might be in serious trouble tho.

[gmr548 16513]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I’m skeptical about Wisconsin being a true toss up.

 

id say democrats have the advantage there. They won Wisconsin for 30 years before 2016 and they won it again in 2018. I’d put the odds of a generic democrat winning right now at 55-45. If Bernie or warren is the candidate, we might be in serious trouble tho.

Actually the results we've seen out of the Midwest generally say a progressive populist Democrat has a better chance than your typical neoliberal center right D. Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in every county but Milwaukee. He also won Michigan and basically tied in IA. Donald Trump capitalized on the same populist vs establishment paradigm to beat Clinton. It is because of that I am pretty confident we're talking about President Sanders right now if he wins the Democratic nomination in 2016.

The state you describe in terms of margin is Pennsylvania. PA is anchored by a definitively northeastern metropolis in Philadelphia, which is the one true engine of growht in the state and is only expanding the Democratic advantage as the surburbs vote more D friendly. PA also has a secondary Democratic stronghold in Pittsburgh. For the GOP to win anything of substance in PA, turnout has to be down on the D side like it was in 2016. The math isn't there for them otherwise.2018 shows what happens in PA when the Ds are motivated - landslide at the statewide level and a net gain of three house seats. The statehouse is gerrymandered to shit though (so is WI).

In Wisconsin on the other hand, a fairly popular incumbent Democratic senator won by roughly a 55-45 margin in a very pro-Democratic 2018 environment. Dems swept statewide offices but did so very narrowly despite a very favorable political environment. A massive tailwind, prettymuch a best case scenario, pushed Democrats across the finish line in WI in 2018. In a neutral "generic" environment the state is a tossup at best and probably even a slight R lean. The playing field in 2020 is probably still going to favor Democrats, at least in down ballot races, but probably not as much in 2018. Democrats absolutely have a fighting chance in WI and should absolutely treat it as one of, if not the most important state in their electoral strategy. But to give them anything better than 50-50 chances there is wishful thinking at this point.

[gmr548 16513]

24 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m skeptical about Wisconsin being a true toss up.

 

id say democrats have the advantage there. They won Wisconsin for 30 years before 2016 and they won it again in 2018. I’d put the odds of a generic democrat winning right now at 55-45. If Bernie or warren is the candidate, we might be in serious trouble tho.

Sorry for the double post. Fundamentally, I guess what I am saying is that we are in the midst of a political realignment and that the Trump era is so unique that the elections with him on the ballot - 2016 directly and 2018 indirectly - should carry a lot more weight in evaluating voter behavior than anything before that, even 2008 and 2012. And that approach tells me Wisconsin is the front line.

[gmr548 16513]

29 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

If Wisconsin goes red but the other two go blue, how likely is a 269 to 269 scenario? Actually looks really plausible to me unless I am missing something.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/BPjlE

Heh. I've posted that map a few times as a joke. It is definitely possible. Just because of the sheer number of possible outcomes the probability is small, but it is possible. MI and PA are both more likely to flip than WI. That map also would mean a Trump reelection since each state delegation gets a vote in the House. While Ds will likely retain a healthy majority in the house, the Rs hold the majority in 26 state delegations.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Random house related question.....

 

i saw that the virginia governor race is in 2021. Will the maps already be drawn statewide by the time that Governor is elected or is part of the race for control of the gerrymander pen?

virginia seems to be getting bluer by the day so I’m not particularly worried about it tho.

 

[Js1 85110]

Yes probably. In most states the legislatures elected in 2020 will draw the maps for the 2022 races. Virginia and New Jersey and Mississippi are off cycle. So the legislatures elected in 2019 have to draw the maps once the census data comes in. The 2021-elected legislatures wouldn’t be done in time for the drawing of maps for 2022 primaries. 

[RayDog 682]

I also researched which democratic house members took the most corporate PAC money into their campaign and looked at their ratings and grades on progressivepunch to see which ones tended to vote republican looking for a link. To no surprise there is a correlation. I did this to point to candidates that progressives should consider primarying, although those with an A or B rating should probably just be more careful who they accept donations from.

Name	District	Corp. PAC	PAC %	Rating	Grade
Richard Neal	MA-1	$2,501,791	76.33%	2.60	C
Steny Hoyer	MD-5	$2,163,715	60.92%	-5.48	F
Ron Kind	WI-3	$1,683,793	78.05%	-4.77	F
Frank Pallone	NJ-6	$1,637,066	67.22%	3.99	B
James Clyburn	SC-6	$1,428,608	86.34%	-1.08	D
Terri Sewel	AL-7	$1,324,628	81.63%	-16.96	F
Kurt Schrader	OR-5	$1,322,953	70.99%	-19.70	F
Scott Peters	CA-52	$1,274,573	56.20%	-31.84	F
Mike Thompson	CA-5	$1,150,309	61.43%	-0.95	D
Ben R Lujan	NM-3	$1,120,126	68.67%	-2.66	D
Linda Sanchez	CA-38	$1,100,788	77.99%	11.76	A
Josh Gottheimer	NJ-5	$1,094,326	24.28%	-35.34	F
Cheri Bustos	IL-17	$1,072,622	41.77%	-24.70	F
Derek Kilmer	WA-6	$1,045,221	51.78%	-14.06	F
Henry Cuellar	TX-28	$1,030,377	66.63%	-44.44	F
Suzan DelBene	WA-1	$1,004,698	53.22%	-10.72	F
John Larson	CT-1	$987,993	70.94%	2.48	C
Collin Peterson	MN-7	$961,513	79.59%	-30.80	F
Jim Himes	CT-4	$937,673	48.28%	-12.69	F
Ami Bera	CA-7	$933,047	40.79%	-27.39	F
David Scott	GA-13	$921,249	94.12%	-15.45	F
Ed Perlmutter	CO-7	$893,069	63.84%	-15.66	F
Cedric Richmond	LA-2	$892,392	77.90%	-5.14	F
Jim Costa	CA-16	$892,340	58.10%	-40.27	F
Stephanie Murphy	FL-7	$866,738	46.95%	-32.67	F
Nancy Pelosi	CA-12	$866,700	26.58%	10.31	A
Raul Ruiz	CA-36	$808,925	39.07%	-30.67	F
Earl Blumenauer	OR-3	$779,038	64.09%	6.15	B
Bill Pascrell	NJ-9	$776,498	61.26%	-2.64	D
Pete Aguilar	CA-31	$760,552	37.28%	-26.57	F
Tony Cardenas	CA-29	$753,184	61.16%	-5.43	F
Eric Swalwell	CA-15	$730,154	31.85%	-2.19	D
Doris Matsui	CA-6	$720,303	76.77%	6.98	B
Peter DeFazio	OR-4	$712,925	58.97%	5.98	B
Sanford Bishop	GA-2	$711,270	80.41%	-21.17	F
Gregory Meeks	NY-5	$706,100	76.04%	-0.26	D
Brad Schneider	IL-10	$698,603	27.29%	-30.53	F
Joe Kennedy	MA-3	$697,331	20.25%	6.96	B
Dennis Heck	WA-10	$695,200	52.31%	-7.95	F
Paul Tonko	NY-20	$674,250	64.61%	6.97	B
David Loebsack	IA-2	$673,650	54.30%	-8.34	F
Carolyn B Maloney	NY-12	$671,900	42.98%	3.14	C
Ann Kuster	NH-2	$670,639	34.81%	-13.83	F
Joyce Beatty	OH-3	$665,188	74.22%	1.10	C
Lisa Blunt Rochester	DE	$664,823	69.44%	-6.94	F
Don Norcross	NJ-1	$655,006	45.61%	-11.30	F
Emanuel Cleaver	MO-5	$653,500	73.60%	1.93	C
Bill Foster	IL-11	$652,050	31.41%	-19.24	F
Gerry Connolly	VA-11	$648,650	44.00%	-12.02	F
Marc Veasey	TX-33	$640,134	58.78%	-10.52	F
Raja Krishnamoorthi	IL-8	$622,083	19.42%	-5.85	F
Rick Larsen	WA-2	$613,250	73.56%	-8.25	F
Gwen Moore	WI-4	$594,850	73.92%	9.79	A
Lou Correa	CA-46	$591,918	65.34%	-27.70	F
Hakeem Jeffries	NY-8	$584,500	48.71%	9.27	A
Dan Kildee	MI-5	$578,750	68.00%	11.78	A
Debbie Dingell	MI-12	$578,600	58.96%	3.51	B
Diana DeGette	CO-1	$573,050	54.50%	7.32	B
G.K. Butterfield	NC-1	$571,348	86.41%	-5.24	F
Bennie Thompson	MS-2	$567,696	80.28%	-1.11	D
Jimmy Panetta	CA-20	$567,165	57.61%	-10.48	F
Adam Smith	WA-9	$567,154	57.34%	-10.49	F
Juan Vargas	CA-51	$565,400	77.18%	-4.16	F
Seth Moulton	MA-5	$549,838	28.40%	-8.90	F
Daniel Lipinski	IL-3	$548,477	56.46%	-25.47	F
Dutch Ruppersberger	MD-2	$548,350	69.61%	-17.21	F
Filemon Vela	TX-34	$542,157	61.79%	-27.84	F
Charlie Crist	FL-13	$522,815	31.65%	-24.59	F
Sean Patrick Maloney	NY-18	$514,857	31.15%	-27.89	F
Pete Visclosky	IN-1	$514,704	64.94%	-7.57	F
Mike Quigley	IL-5	$514,450	50.43%	-0.23	D
Nydia Velazquez	NY-7	$511,465	64.32%	12.30	A
Peter Welch	VT-1	$510,850	75.76%	6.08	B
Vicente Gonzalez	TX-15	$507,333	53.89%	-23.07	F
Mike Doyle	PA-18	$497,500	79.95%	-11.32	F
Brian Higgins	NY-26	$493,849	61.85%	-5.42	F
Anna Eshoo	CA-18	$487,930	39.66%	3.46	B
G.K. Butterfield	NC-1	$571,348	86.41%	-5.24	F
Brendan Boyle	PA-2	$473,779	71.30%	-6.76	F
Maxine Waters	CA-43	$469,590	35.46%	9.65	A
Tom O'Halleran	AZ-1	$467,227	40.80%	-32.67	F
Darren Soto	FL-9	$456,611	58.54%	-4.52	F
Julia Brownley	CA-26	$456,099	35.94%	-20.44	F
Robin Kelly	IL-2	$443,350	65.46%	6.81	B
Brad Sherman	CA-30	$438,050	43.86%	-1.10	D
Tom Suozzi	NY-3	$423,253	31.21%	-26.26	F
John Lewis	GA-5	$421,297	15.72%	11.60	A
Suzanne Bonamici	OR-1	$419,323	52.94%	8.41	A
Kathleen Rice	NY-4	$417,750	35.70%	-20.29	F
Yvette D. Clarke	NY-9	$417,392	59.52%	12.54	A
Marcia L Fudge	OH-11	$412,384	90.75%	7.03	B
John Garamendi	CA-3	$412,263	64.37%	-4.79	F
Jerry Nadler	NY-10	$411,609	40.85%	11.65	A
Katherine Clark	MA-4	$406,520	50.18%	13.68	A
Joe Courtney	CT-2	$403,950	54.58%	-3.70	F

[Voldemort86 2259]

A message for republicans who think last year in California was a fluke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2019/08/07/in-reagans-california-democrats-overtake-republicans-1132678

democrats have officially surpassed republican voter registrations in Orange County.

last year, when voting started, repubs had a 18,000 advantage. After the update yesterday, Democrats have a 179 person registration advantage. 

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85110]

I remember the national media/pundits laughing at the DCCC for being confident about OC/Southern California.  And Republicans declaring that the "socialism!" attacks would work in the uptight gated communities of the OC.  "You'll never turn the LA suburbs blue, hahaha." 

Every D candidate in the OC ran strongly on M4A and all of them won.  Including an Elizabeth Warren protégé. 

And the same thing is going to happen in Texas, in North Carolina, in Georgia, and in Arizona. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Js1

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I remember the national media/pundits laughing at the DCCC for being confident about OC/Southern California.  And Republicans declaring that the "socialism!" attacks would work in the uptight gated communities of the OC. 

Every D candidate in the OC ran strongly on M4A and all of them won.  Including an Elizabeth Warren protégé. 

California elected 19 Republican representatives to the House in 2010.  They had 7 last year.  Completely writing off that entire state as a liberal hellhole is just incomprehensibly bad politics for the GOP.

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Chuckie Finster

[Js1 85110]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

California elected 19 Republican representatives to the house in 2010.  They had 7 last year.  Completely writing off that entire state as a liberal hellhole is just incomprehensibly bad politics for the GOP.

 

And if California had partisan gerrymandering (they don't), Democrats could cut that down to 4-5 instead.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

just went through their wikipedia page showing all the districts.  man, who knew california was so big.  they have a ton of districts the size of a pin prick.

[RayDog 682]

Rachel Bitcofer's latest house prediction has 9 Texas seats in her top 18 most likely to flip. They are mostly the usual suspects TX- 2, 3, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 and 31. Her model puts a lot of emphasis on education. 

18 Top Targets for Democrats in the House for 2020

I would personally subtract the aggies and recalculate. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

And if California had partisan gerrymandering (they don't), Democrats could cut that down to 4-5 instead.

If California loses a seat to redistricting, I hope it’s devin nunes who gets squeezed out. That guy is a little bitch.

[gmr548 16513]

6 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

California elected 19 Republican representatives to the House in 2010.  They had 7 last year.  Completely writing off that entire state as a liberal hellhole is just incomprehensibly bad politics for the GOP.

 

Truth. The R candidate for governor got more votes than Greg Abbott. You can't generalize a state of 40 million. It's the same thing Democrats were doing in Texas for a long time. Texas has always been better educated and more diverse than your typical red state. I'm not saying Texas has been Democrat-friendly in the past, but they were underachieving in getting 35 percent of the statewide vote. Democrats were, for some reason, content to not even bother competing in the second largest state in the union. The realignment of the past few cycles got the electorate here fired up on its own, and only after that has the Democratic party bothered to put any effort in. You're seeing the GOP do the same thing in completely giving up on competing for the vote of 12 percent of the entire country.

[gmr548 16513]

4 hours ago, RayDog said:

Rachel Bitcofer's latest house prediction has 9 Texas seats in her top 18 most likely to flip. They are mostly the usual suspects TX- 2, 3, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 and 31. Her model puts a lot of emphasis on education. 

18 Top Targets for Democrats in the House for 2020

I would personally subtract the aggies and recalculate. 

Intersting read. I tend to agree that the 2018 midterms were more about a rebuke of Trump than anything else. He dominated the news cycle for two years. Even healthcare was about Trump in the context of that election.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Interesting court case going on in North Carolina. I thought some of you could weigh in on this while we all anxiously await the next republican retirement.

https://www.npr.org/2019/07/15/740842847/north-carolina-gerrymandering-trial-could-serve-as-blueprint-for-other-states

the article is somewhat old, but it tells you how much the repubs have been screwing the democrats there.

to give an update, the trial has concluded and the judges are currently deliberating. The judges who heard the case are 2 democrats and 1 republican. When the judges come forth with a ruling, it will undoubtedly be challenged and sent to the state Supreme Court for a final decision.

the asshole republicans in North Carolina have tried to make sure that the ruling gets sent to the US Supreme Court for consideration even after the Supreme Court recently weighed in and said they aren’t going to crack down on extreme gerrymandering in individual states. They are basically saying that gerrymandering should be left up to and oversight should be conducted by the states. 

Well...... the reason those douchebag repubs wanted the US Supreme Court to take up the case is because the current balance of power in the court is 5-4 repub. The North Carolina Supreme Court is 6-1 in favor of the democrats.

id say our odds are looking good right now based on what I’ve heard about it so far.

The current makeup of North Carolina’s congressional delegation is 8 republicans, 3 democrats, and 2 vacancies. The repubs will win one of those seats for sure this fall and the other one, the democrat probably has a 20% chance of victory.

by December of this year, the North Carolina congressional delegation will most likely be 10 repubs and 3 democrats in a state where the democrats actually won the popular vote last year in the midterms and is always competitive in senate / presidential races. 

Something definitely needs to change.......

 

Edited August 12, 2019 by Voldemort86

[cactusflinthead 27594]

key ally of State Rep. Drew Darby in the Texas House, attorney and State Rep. Brooks Landgraf (R - District 81, Odessa), said he would announce a decision to run for Conaway’s congressional seat “within weeks.” Landgraf said when he arrived at the Texas House for this first legislative session, he sought the mentorship of Darby and his office was located near Darby’s. In the 2019 legislative session, Landgraf ‘s third, he worked on securing more funding for the Texas Department of Transportation to repair and upgrade roads in his district centered on Odessa. Roads leading to working locations in the Permian Basin were a safety issue, not one of commuting convenience. He won $1.9 billion to spend from the Odessa office of TxDOT over the next two years. Landgraf, a graduate of Texas A&M University, currently serves as the Vice Chairman of the Transportation Committee in the Texas House. His cousin is Conley Brooks, a prominent businessman in San Angelo.

https://sanangelolive.com/news/politics/2019-08-08/trade-policy-and-political-maneuvers-were-hot-topics-16th-annual-west-texas

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Steve King (R-IA) tries to make some point about removing rape and incest abortion protections because hey, we're all products of rape and incest.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/politics/steve-king-rape-incest-comments/index.html

"What if we went back through all the family trees and just pulled those people out that were products of rape and incest? Would there be any population of the world left if we did that?" he said in Urbandale, Iowa

 

You figure that the GOP must give their politicians talking points that don't involve weird tangents that we're all here because of rape.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I want to see the reaction of the crowd.  "I'm pro-life, no exceptions" is a long way from "if you think about it, where would be be without a little rapin'".  Surely there was some cringe as they realized they'd be on the news.

[Voldemort86 2259]

As funny as this is, It is actually bad news.  

It would be good for the democrats if Duncan Hunter, Chris Collins, and Steve king made the general election. Those guys are making barely any campaign money at all.

Edited August 15, 2019 by Voldemort86

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Collins is still doing well in his district. I don't know what Steve King looks like in his, but I don't know if he knows when to back down. He's shown no signs of it that I recall. He's more likely to double down judging from past experience. 

Hunter, yeah not sure that's a lock either. 

Of all of them I'd put JD Scholten's chances the best of flipping one of the three and that's if King stays in it and refuses to be shamed into resigning and they get someone not quite so umm pro rape. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

46 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Collins is still doing well in his district. I don't know what Steve King looks like in his, but I don't know if he knows when to back down. He's shown no signs of it that I recall. He's more likely to double down judging from past experience. 

Hunter, yeah not sure that's a lock either. 

Of all of them I'd put JD Scholten's chances the best of flipping one of the three and that's if King stays in it and refuses to be shamed into resigning and they get someone not quite so umm pro rape. 

I’m not necessarily talking about winning these seats, what I was getting at is these guys were making so little money last time I looked that the National Republican’s would probably have to step in and burn resources.

[bolverk 29399]

Burn baby burn

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27428135/clemens-nixes-political-run-citing-climate

Quote

Pitching great Roger Clemens didn't shy away from many battles in his major league career, but politics is something he's not willing to take on.

Clemens had been encouraged to run as a Republican candidate for the seat of Texas Republican Rep. Pete Olson, who announced his retirement last month.

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20344]

Chip Roy apparently didn't have an easy time at a Town Hall tonight.
 

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Another one gone.

Duffy’s district, encompassing Wisconsin’s vast rural North Country, is unlikely to show up high on Democratic target lists: Trump won the district by 20 points in 2016, and while Democrats have historically competed in this part of the Midwest, rural areas have been moving steadily away from the party — as seen in the neighboring 8th District of Minnesota, which Republicans easily won in a tough year for the GOP following the retirement of longtime Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/republican-rep-sean-duffy-to-resign-next-month-cites-complications-related-to-his-wifes-pregnancy/2019/08/26/b1a676c8-c819-11e9-a4f3-c081a126de70_story.html